|By John Treadway||
|June 22, 2010 11:53 AM EDT||
Once again, Gartner has publicized entirely useless and (worse) misleading numbers on the global market for cloud computing services. Their numbers from last year were disputed by me (here, and here) and several others, yet they kept to their fataly flawed methodology for the 2010 update. This is despite at least one of the analysts who’s name appears on the report privately agreeing with me that last years numbers were “rubbish” and that they were pressured into using this methodology.
The press release cited above indicates that “cloud services revenue is forecast to reach $68.3 billion in 2010…” My primary question is “Hey Gartner, what color is the sky in your world?” Or perhaps it should be “What have you been smoking?”
I should point out at this point that someone totally unrelated to this blog or my job recently handed me a copy of the complete Dataquest report on which the press release was based.
Here is a distribution of the 2010 numbers from there report:
Breaking It Down – Google AdWords Ain’t Cloud!!
As was the case last time, the most ludicrous inclusion in these numbers is what they include under the heading “Business Process Services.” Out of $68.3 billion total cloud services forecasted for 2010, Business Process Services is $57.9 billion, or 85%. The biggest chunk of this is $32 billion in online advertising. That’s right, Gartner thinks that the billions that advertisers spend with Google, Yahoo, and others for advertising their products and services should be counted as cloud spending.
Okay, so I’m marketing mortgages using AdWords, and the money coming out of my marketing budget counts as cloud? Really? Is it just me, or is that totally insane?!?
Other things that count as cloud in the “Business Process Services” bucket?
- Cloud-based E-Commerce: this is a bit of a toss-up. The fees that eBay collects from merchants and the Amazon marketplace fees are included here. Is that really a cloud service, or just distribution??? I’d say it should be out. Though if you want to put it anywhere, count it as SaaS revenue.
- Payments: this includes the fees that PayPal charges, most for merchant card processing. It ain’t cloud!
- HR Services: the fees that ADP charges your company to process your checks and provide online access to your payroll records?? Yup, it’s cloud according to Gartner.
- Supply Management: they are not clear about this, but I imagine fees charged to manufacturers for inclusion in supplier search engines (e.g. Alibaba) might count here.
- Demand Management: could be advertising analytics apps and programs for managing online search spending, but again not clear
- Finance, Accounting, Admin: again, they don’t provide good examples here. This could include NetSuite, but wouldn’t that be in SaaS?
- Operations: no idea, but most business operations I can think of would not be “cloud.
Frankly, I wish I knew what was going on over there (Gartner), but to me this report is nonsensical that I just can’t wrap my head around it.
The CloudBzz Revised Cloud Market Forecast
Using the Gartner numbers as a base, and stripping out the Business Process Services category in its entirety, I come up with the following numbers.
The CloudBzz revised worldwide market for cloud services in 2010 is forecasted at $10.5 billion, growing to $34.1 billion in 2014.
That’s a much more believable set of numbers, any way you want to look at it.
Now, these are numbers I can believe in. The vast bulk of cloud today is in the SaaS market. Even out to 2014, more than 60% of “cloud” revenue is SaaS.
Interestingly, by 2014 the PaaS market is only 3% of the total cloud market, according to Gartner. Not sure that I believe that, but I don’t have any better numbers at this time.
Why Gartner Should Fix This…
Everybody likes big numbers, especially when they contribute to the “hype cycle” we all like to make fun of. $10.5 billion in 2010 is actually a pretty big number. $34.1 in 2014 is big too. I just wish Gartner would come to their senses and stop adding to the confusion about what is a cloud service, though my expectation is that they will continue to propogate this farce as long as their customers are buying it. IaaS, PaaS, and (some would argue) SaaS are all that should be counted in anybody’s cloud forecast.
p.s. I really like the Gartner people that I’ve met who cover cloud. I just can’t believe that they consider Google AdWords as part of this exciting and fast moving IT market.
Follow me on twitter for more cloud conversations: http://twitter.com/cloudbzz
Notice: This article was originally posted at http://CloudBzz.com by John Treadway.
(c) CloudBzz / John Treadway
Today we can collect lots and lots of performance data. We build beautiful dashboards and even have fancy query languages to access and transform the data. Still performance data is a secret language only a couple of people understand. The more business becomes digital the more stakeholders are interested in this data including how it relates to business. Some of these people have never used a monitoring tool before. They have a question on their mind like “How is my application doing” but no id...
Aug. 24, 2016 09:15 PM EDT Reads: 1,656
Kubernetes, Docker and containers are changing the world, and how companies are deploying their software and running their infrastructure. With the shift in how applications are built and deployed, new challenges must be solved. In his session at @DevOpsSummit at19th Cloud Expo, Sebastian Scheele, co-founder of Loodse, will discuss the implications of containerized applications/infrastructures and their impact on the enterprise. In a real world example based on Kubernetes, he will show how to ...
Aug. 24, 2016 04:45 PM EDT Reads: 1,295
Is the ongoing quest for agility in the data center forcing you to evaluate how to be a part of infrastructure automation efforts? As organizations evolve toward bimodal IT operations, they are embracing new service delivery models and leveraging virtualization to increase infrastructure agility. Therefore, the network must evolve in parallel to become equally agile. Read this essential piece of Gartner research for recommendations on achieving greater agility.
Aug. 24, 2016 04:35 PM EDT Reads: 278
Pulzze Systems was happy to participate in such a premier event and thankful to be receiving the winning investment and global network support from G-Startup Worldwide. It is an exciting time for Pulzze to showcase the effectiveness of innovative technologies and enable them to make the world smarter and better. The reputable contest is held to identify promising startups around the globe that are assured to change the world through their innovative products and disruptive technologies. There w...
Aug. 24, 2016 04:15 PM EDT Reads: 331
SYS-CON Events announced today Telecom Reseller has been named “Media Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Telecom Reseller reports on Unified Communications, UCaaS, BPaaS for enterprise and SMBs. They report extensively on both customer premises based solutions such as IP-PBX as well as cloud based and hosted platforms.
Aug. 24, 2016 04:15 PM EDT Reads: 444
SYS-CON Events announced today that Venafi, the Immune System for the Internet™ and the leading provider of Next Generation Trust Protection, will exhibit at @DevOpsSummit at 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Venafi is the Immune System for the Internet™ that protects the foundation of all cybersecurity – cryptographic keys and digital certificates – so they can’t be misused by bad guys in attacks...
Aug. 24, 2016 04:15 PM EDT Reads: 2,551
To paraphrase someone famous, "The definition of insanity is to do something the same way over and over again and expect a different result". Humans are creatures of habit and when it comes to storage, old habits die hard. Why do we continue to put our faith in legacy storage providers when they haven't invented anything new in decades. Sure, they re-badge their products every couple of years to make their messaging look modern, but ultimately, it's the same old stuff with a new coat of lipsti...
Aug. 24, 2016 04:10 PM EDT Reads: 271
StarNet Communications Corp has announced the addition of three Secure Remote Desktop modules to its flagship X-Win32 PC X server. The new modules enable X-Win32 to safely tunnel the remote desktops from Linux and Unix servers to the user’s PC over encrypted SSH. Traditionally, users of PC X servers deploy the XDMCP protocol to display remote desktop environments such as the Gnome and KDE desktops on Linux servers and the CDE environment on Solaris Unix machines. XDMCP is used primarily on comp...
Aug. 24, 2016 03:15 PM EDT Reads: 390
Smart Cities are here to stay, but for their promise to be delivered, the data they produce must not be put in new siloes. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Mathias Herberts, Co-founder and CTO of Cityzen Data, will deep dive into best practices that will ensure a successful smart city journey.
Aug. 24, 2016 02:15 PM EDT Reads: 1,434
SYS-CON Events announced today that StarNet Communications will exhibit at the 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. StarNet Communications’ FastX is the industry first cloud-based remote X Windows emulator. Using standard Web browsers (FireFox, Chrome, Safari, etc.) users from around the world gain highly secure access to applications and data hosted on Linux-based servers in a central data center. ...
Aug. 24, 2016 02:00 PM EDT Reads: 467
Using new techniques of information modeling, indexing, and processing, new cloud-based systems can support cloud-based workloads previously not possible for high-throughput insurance, banking, and case-based applications. In his session at 18th Cloud Expo, John Newton, CTO, Founder and Chairman of Alfresco, described how to scale cloud-based content management repositories to store, manage, and retrieve billions of documents and related information with fast and linear scalability. He addres...
Aug. 24, 2016 02:00 PM EDT Reads: 1,830
Aspose.Total for .NET is the most complete package of all file format APIs for .NET as offered by Aspose. It empowers developers to create, edit, render, print and convert between a wide range of popular document formats within any .NET, C#, ASP.NET and VB.NET applications. Aspose compiles all .NET APIs on a daily basis to ensure that it contains the most up to date versions of each of Aspose .NET APIs. If a new .NET API or a new version of existing APIs is released during the subscription peri...
Aug. 24, 2016 12:15 PM EDT Reads: 1,795
The 19th International Cloud Expo has announced that its Call for Papers is open. Cloud Expo, to be held November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, brings together Cloud Computing, Big Data, Internet of Things, DevOps, Digital Transformation, Microservices and WebRTC to one location. With cloud computing driving a higher percentage of enterprise IT budgets every year, it becomes increasingly important to plant your flag in this fast-expanding business opportuni...
Aug. 24, 2016 12:00 PM EDT Reads: 3,846
To leverage Continuous Delivery, enterprises must consider impacts that span functional silos, as well as applications that touch older, slower moving components. Managing the many dependencies can cause slowdowns. See how to achieve continuous delivery in the enterprise.
Aug. 24, 2016 11:45 AM EDT Reads: 1,435
DevOps at Cloud Expo – being held November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA – announces that its Call for Papers is open. Born out of proven success in agile development, cloud computing, and process automation, DevOps is a macro trend you cannot afford to miss. From showcase success stories from early adopters and web-scale businesses, DevOps is expanding to organizations of all sizes, including the world's largest enterprises – and delivering real results. Am...
Aug. 24, 2016 11:45 AM EDT Reads: 3,354