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August Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; PMI at 56.3%; New Orders, Production and Employment Growing; Supplier Deliveries Slower; Inventories Growing

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in August for the 13th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 16th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “Manufacturing activity continued at a very positive rate in August as the PMI rose slightly when compared to July. In terms of month-over-month improvement, the Production and Employment Indexes experienced the greatest gains, while new orders continued to grow but at a slightly slower rate. August represents the 13th consecutive month of growth in U.S. manufacturing.”

PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY

Eleven of the 18 manufacturing industries are reporting growth in August, in the following order: Primary Metals; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Printing & Related Support Activities. The five industries reporting contraction in August are: Furniture & Related Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Machinery.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

  • “Still experiencing intermittent delays in electronic components due to capacity and raw materials.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
  • “International sales are especially strong. Domestic business is solid.” (Chemical Products)
  • “Orders and business still strong.” (Primary Metals)
  • “Order rate has slowed some. Supplier capacity in general seems to be improved.” (Machinery)
  • “Large customers reducing pull rates for production.” (Computer & Electronic Products)

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
AUGUST 2010

           
Index

Series
Index
August

Series
Index
July

Percentage
Point
Change

Direction

Rate
of Change

Trend(a)
(Months)

 
PMI 56.3 55.5 +0.8 Growing Faster 13
New Orders 53.1 53.5 -0.4 Growing Slower 14
Production 59.9 57.0 +2.9 Growing Faster 15
Employment 60.4 58.6 +1.8 Growing Faster 9
Supplier Deliveries 56.6 58.3 -1.7 Slowing Slower 15
Inventories 51.4 50.2 +1.2 Growing Faster 2
Customers’ Inventories 43.5 39.0 +4.5 Too Low Slower 17
Prices 61.5 57.5 +4.0 Increasing Faster 14
Backlog of Orders 51.5 54.5 -3.0 Growing Slower 8
Exports 55.5 56.5 -1.0 Growing Slower 14
Imports 56.5 52.5 +4.0 Growing Faster 12
OVERALL ECONOMY

 

Manufacturing Sector

Growing Faster 16
Growing Faster 13

(a) Number of months moving in current direction

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Caustic Soda; Copper; and Corrugated Containers (6).

Commodities Down in Price

Polyethylene (2); Polypropylene; and Steel (2).

Commodities in Short Supply

Capacitors (2) is the only commodity listed in short supply.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

AUGUST 2010 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

PMI

Manufacturing continued to grow in August as the PMI registered 56.3 percent, an increase of 0.8 percentage point when compared to July’s reading of 55.5 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI in excess of 42 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the 16th consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 13th consecutive month. Ore stated, “The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through August (57.8 percent) corresponds to a 5.3 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI for August (56.3 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 4.8 percent increase in real GDP annually."

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

          Month                     PMI                               Month                     PMI
 
Aug 2010 56.3 Feb 2010 56.5
Jul 2010 55.5 Jan 2010 58.4
Jun 2010 56.2 Dec 2009 54.9
May 2010 59.7 Nov 2009 53.7
Apr 2010 60.4 Oct 2009 55.2
Mar 2010 59.6 Sep 2009 52.4
Average for 12 months – 56.6

High – 60.4

Low – 52.4

New Orders

ISM’s New Orders Index registered 53.1 percent in August, which is a decrease of 0.4 percentage point when compared to the 53.5 percent reported in July. This is the 14th consecutive month of growth in the New Orders Index. A New Orders Index above 50.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The eight industries reporting growth in new orders in August — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products. The six industries reporting decreases in new orders in August — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

New Orders           %Better         %Same         %Worse         Net         Index
 
Aug 2010 29 49 22 +7 53.1
Jul 2010 27 53 20 +7 53.5
Jun 2010 36 50 14 +22 58.5
May 2010 50 38 12 +38 65.7

Production

ISM’s Production Index registered 59.9 percent in August, which is an increase of 2.9 percentage points from the July reading of 57 percent. An index above 51 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures. This is the 15th consecutive month the Production Index has registered above 50 percent.

The 11 industries reporting growth in production during the month of August — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products. The four industries reporting a decrease in production in August are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Printing & Related Support Activities.

Production           %Better         %Same         %Worse         Net         Index
 
Aug 2010 33 53 14 +19 59.9
Jul 2010 31 50 19 +12 57.0
Jun 2010 40 47 13 +27 61.4
May 2010 51 37 12 +39 66.6

Employment

ISM’s Employment Index registered 60.4 percent in August, which is 1.8 percentage points higher than the 58.6 percent reported in July. This is the ninth consecutive month of growth in manufacturing employment. An Employment Index above 49.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Ten of the 18 manufacturing industries reported growth in employment in August in the following order: Transportation Equipment; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products. Furniture & Related Products is the only industry reporting a decrease in employment during August.

Employment           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Net         Index
 
Aug 2010 26 69 5 +21 60.4
Jul 2010 26 66 8 +18 58.6
Jun 2010 26 63 11 +15 57.8
May 2010 28 66 6 +22 59.8

Supplier Deliveries

The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in August as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 56.6 percent, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than the 58.3 percent registered in July. This is the 15th consecutive month the Supplier Deliveries Index has been above 50 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The 10 industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in August — listed in order — are: Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. There were no industry reports of faster deliveries in August.

Supplier Deliveries           %Slower         %Same         %Faster         Net         Index
 
Aug 2010 19 78 3 +16 56.6
Jul 2010 28 66 6 +22 58.3
Jun 2010 23 71 6 +17 57.3
May 2010 29 66 5 +24 61.0

Inventories

Manufacturers’ inventories grew in August as the Inventories Index registered 51.4 percent. The index is 1.2 percentage points higher than the 50.2 percent reported in July. An Inventories Index greater than 42.6 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

The eight industries reporting higher inventories in August — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products. The six industries reporting decreases in inventories in August — listed in order — are: Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

Inventories           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Net         Index
 
Aug 2010 19 68 13 +6 51.4
Jul 2010 19 60 21 -2 50.2
Jun 2010 13 66 21 -8 45.8
May 2010 13 66 21 -8 45.6

Customers’ Inventories(b)

The ISM Customers’ Inventories Index registered 43.5 percent in August, 4.5 percentage points higher than in July when the index registered 39 percent. This is the 17th consecutive month the Customers’ Inventories Index has been below 50 percent, indicating that respondents believe their customers’ inventories are too low at this time.

Miscellaneous Manufacturing is the only manufacturing industry reporting customers’ inventories as being too high during August. The eight industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low during August — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Customers’ Inventories    

%
Reporting

   

%Too
High

   

%About
Right

   

%Too
Low

    Net     Index
 
Aug 2010 65 11 65 24 -13 43.5
Jul 2010 81 6 66 28 -22 39.0
Jun 2010 67 4 68 28 -24 38.0
May 2010 69 5 54 41 -36 32.0

Prices(b)

The ISM Prices Index registered 61.5 percent in August, 4 percentage points higher than the 57.5 percent reported in July. This is the 14th consecutive month the Prices Index has registered above 50 percent. While 35 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices and 12 percent reported paying lower prices, 53 percent of supply executives reported paying the same prices as in July. A Prices Index above 49.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Index of Manufacturers Prices.

The 12 industries reporting paying increased prices during the month of August — listed in order — are: Paper Products; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Transportation Equipment; Printing & Related Support Activities; Chemical Products; Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Computer & Electronic Products. The three industries reporting paying lower prices on average during August are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products.

Prices           %Higher         %Same         %Lower         Net         Index
 
Aug 2010 35 53 12 +23 61.5
Jul 2010 33 49 18 +15 57.5
Jun 2010 32 50 18 +14 57.0
May 2010 60 35 5 +55 77.5

Backlog of Orders(b)

ISM’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 51.5 percent in August, 3 percentage points lower than the 54.5 percent reported in July. Of the 84 percent of respondents who reported their backlog of orders, 25 percent reported greater backlogs, 22 percent reported smaller backlogs, and 53 percent reported no change from July.

The eight industries reporting increased order backlogs in August — listed in order — are: Paper Products; Primary Metals; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The seven industries reporting decreases in order backlogs during August — listed in order — are: Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Machinery; and Chemical Products.

Backlog of Orders    

%
Reporting

    %Greater     %Same     %Less     Net     Index
 
Aug 2010 84 25 53 22 +3 51.5
Jul 2010 86 28 53 19 +9 54.5
Jun 2010 85 31 52 17 +14 57.0
May 2010 85 30 59 11 +19 59.5

New Export Orders(b)

ISM’s New Export Orders Index registered 55.5 percent in August, which is 1 percentage point lower than the 56.5 percent reported in July. This is the 14th consecutive month of growth in the New Export Orders Index.

The 10 industries reporting growth in new export orders in August — listed in order — are: Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products. None of the 18 manufacturing industries reported a decrease in export orders during August.

New Export Orders    

%
Reporting

    %Higher     %Same     %Lower     Net     Index
 
Aug 2010 80 16 79 5 +11 55.5
Jul 2010 78 20 73 7 +13 56.5
Jun 2010 78 19 74 7 +12 56.0
May 2010 78 28 68 4 +24 62.0

Imports(b)

Imports of materials by manufacturers expanded in August as the Imports Index registered 56.5 percent, 4 percentage points higher than the 52.5 reported in July. This is the 12th consecutive month of growth in imports.

The nine industries reporting growth in imports during the month of August are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery. The two industries reporting a decrease in imports during August are: Miscellaneous Manufacturing and Chemical Products.

Imports    

%
Reporting

   

%Higher

    %Same     %Lower     Net     Index
 
Aug 2010 80 18 77 5 +13 56.5
Jul 2010 78 14 77 9 +5 52.5
Jun 2010 77 20 73 7 +13 56.5
May 2010 82 17 79 4 +13 56.5

(b) The Backlog of Orders, Prices, Customers’ Inventories, Imports and New Export Orders Indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy

Average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures increased 15 days to 127 days. Average lead time for Production Materials remained unchanged at 52 days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies decreased 2 days to 21 days.

Percent Reporting

                           
Capital Expenditures

Hand-to-
Mouth

30
Days

60
Days

90
Days

6
Months

1
Year+

Average
Days

 
Aug 2010 26 4 10 14 33 13 127
Jul 2010 30 7 11 13 28 11 112
Jun 2010 28 8 9 16 29 10 112
May 2010 32 8 9 15 26 10 106
Production Materials    

Hand-to-
Mouth

   

30
Days

   

60
Days

   

90
Days

   

6
Months

   

1
Year+

   

Average
Days

 
Aug 2010 23 34 25 13 2 3 52
Jul 2010 23 35 24 11 5 2 52
Jun 2010 25 36 22 11 4 2 50
May 2010 22 41 21 10 5 1 48
MRO Supplies    

Hand-to-
Mouth

   

30
Days

   

60
Days

   

90
Days

   

6
Months

   

1
Year+

   

Average
Days

 
Aug 2010 54 35 8 3 0 0 21
Jul 2010 50 38 7 5 0 0 23
Jun 2010 48 38 11 3 0 0 23
May 2010 51 36 10 2 1 0 23

About this Report

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply managers based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. Use of the data is in the public domain and should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). Manufacturing Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies).

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers’ Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).

The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (PMI, New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indexes for five of the indicators with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.

Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A PMI in excess of 42 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 42 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 42 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis.

Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month’s lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Production Materials; Capital Expenditures; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted since there is no significant seasonal pattern.

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management™. The Institute for Supply Management™, established in 1915, is the largest supply management organization in the world as well as one of the most respected. ISM’s mission is to lead the supply management profession through its standards of excellence, research, promotional activities and education. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is posted on ISM’s Web site at www.ism.ws on the first business day of every month after 10:10 a.m. (ET).

The next Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® featuring the September 2010 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. (ET) on Friday, October 1, 2010.

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