Click here to close now.




















Welcome!

News Feed Item

President Obama Would Lose if Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani Was the Nominee

Republican field problem is one of recognition - most are unknown

NEW YORK, July 26, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- By this time next summer the Republican candidate who will challenge President Obama will be known but at this point the list of candidates and potential candidates for the nomination is still far from finalized. With the "will-he-or-she-run-questions" still being asked and answered, some of the names with the highest familiarity among the general public are still not even declared candidates.

(Logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20100517/NY06256LOGO)

Obviously because of her run for Vice President with John McCain, almost nine in ten Americans (86%) are familiar with Sarah Palin and 75% of U.S. adults are familiar with Rudy Giuliani, both of whom are still undeclared, but possible candidates for the nomination. Majorities of Americans are familiar with declared candidates Newt Gingrich (72%), Mitt Romney (67%), and Ron Paul (52%) while half are familiar with Michele Bachmann (50%). All other potential candidates are at 30% or under in terms of familiarity.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,183 adults surveyed online between July 11 and 18, 2011 by Harris Interactive.

Even among Republicans, many declared candidates do not have majorities familiar with them. Tim Pawlenty (33%), Rick Santorum (31%), Herman Cain (29%), and Jon Huntsman (15%) all have one-third of Republicans or less familiar with them.

With this in mind, it's not surprising then that among Republicans over one-quarter (28%) say they are not at all sure who they would vote for if they were voting in the Republican primary. Rudy Giuliani (14%) and Mitt Romney (14%) rise to the top among Republicans followed by Sarah Palin (12%). All the other candidates presented are under 10% including Rick Perry (8%), Michele Bachmann (6%), and Ron Paul (5%). Among Independents there is a three tie for "first place" between Rudy Giuliani (10%), Mitt Romney (10%) and Ron Paul (10%). But over two in five Independents (42%) say they are not at all sure who they would vote for in the Republican primary election.

Against President Obama

Looking ahead to November, it seems there are three possible candidates who could give President Obama a difficult time. President Obama would lose his re-election if Rudy Giuliani (53% to 47%) or Mitt Romney (51% to 49%) was the Republican nominee. Each candidate would receive 50% of the vote if the President was running against Ron Paul. Right now, President Obama would win re-election against the 10 other candidates presented.

So What?

Right now the Republican party needs to figure out who they are and begin the process of coalescing around one candidate. In the study of politics, there is always a debate regarding electability and this election may show that clearly. Should Republicans nominate a candidate who stands for certain values or policies important to a sub-section of the party, even though that candidate may not be electable in the general election? This is a question the Republican party needs to answer if they want to win next November.


                                TABLE 1A
                         REPUBLICAN FAMILIARITY
        "How familiar are you with each of the following people?"
    Base: All adults

                        Familiar     Very     Somewhat
                         (NET)     familiar   familiar
                           %          %          %
    Sarah Palin               86         48         38
    Rudy Giuliani             75         37         39
    Newt Gingrich             72         35         37
    Mitt Romney               67         29         38
    Ron Paul                  52         19         33
    Michele Bachmann          50         19         31
    Rick Perry                30         13         17
    Tim Pawlenty              28          9         19
    Rick Santorum             28         10         18
    Herman Cain               22          7         15
    Jon Huntsman, Jr.         15          4         11
    Gary Johnson               8          3          5
    Thaddeus McCotter          8          3          5


                           Not        Not     Not at
                        familiar     very       all
                         (NET)     familiar   familiar
                           %          %          %
    Sarah Palin               14          8          5
    Rudy Giuliani             25         11         14
    Newt Gingrich             28         14         13
    Mitt Romney               33         16         16
    Ron Paul                  48         21         27
    Michele Bachmann          50         18         32
    Rick Perry                70         20         50
    Tim Pawlenty              72         22         50
    Rick Santorum             72         20         52
    Herman Cain               78         18         60
    Jon Huntsman, Jr.         85         22         63
    Gary Johnson              92         18         74
    Thaddeus McCotter         92         15         77


    Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

                                     TABLE 1B
                              REPUBLICAN FAMILIARITY
            "How familiar are you with each of the following people?"
          Summary of those saying "Very familiar" or "Somewhat familiar"
    Base: All adults

                        Total              Party ID
                                  Rep.      Dem.      Ind.
                          %        %         %         %
    Sarah Palin             86       88         89       89
    Rudy Giuliani           75       77         77       78
    Newt Gingrich           72       76         74       76
    Mitt Romney             67       74         65       73
    Ron Paul                52       55         50       60
    Michele Bachmann        50       50         50       55
    Rick Perry              30       38         26       30
    Tim Pawlenty            28       33         25       33
    Rick Santorum           28       31         27       32
    Herman Cain             22       29         17       25
    Jon Huntsman, Jr.       15       15         17       16
    Gary Johnson             8       11          7        8
    Thaddeus McCotter        8        8          7        8


                                 Philosophy
                        Cons.     Mod.      Lib.
                          %         %         %
    Sarah Palin             85        86        91
    Rudy Giuliani           74        74        80
    Newt Gingrich           76        69        74
    Mitt Romney             69        65        70
    Ron Paul                54        48        59
    Michele Bachmann        53        43        59
    Rick Perry              37        26        29
    Tim Pawlenty            32        25        33
    Rick Santorum           33        23        32
    Herman Cain             32        16        21
    Jon Huntsman, Jr.       17        11        23
    Gary Johnson             9         7         8
    Thaddeus McCotter        6         8         7


    Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

                                      TABLE 2
                            REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTION
       "If you were voting in the Republican primary election and these were
                      the candidates, who would you vote for?"
    Base: All adults


                           Total   Total   Total
                           March    May    July
                            2011    2011    2011

                             %       %       %
    Rudy Giuliani              8       8      11
    Mitt Romney               10      10      11
    Sarah Palin                7       5       8
    Ron Paul                NA         6       7
    Rick Perry              NA      NA         5
    Michele Bachmann           2       2       4
    Jon Huntsman, Jr.       NA         1       3
    Herman Cain             NA         2       3
    Tim Pawlenty               2       2       1
    Newt Gingrich              5       4       1
    Rick Santorum              1     *         1
    Thaddeus McCotter       NA      NA       *
    Gary Johnson            NA         1     *
    Not at all sure           45      42      44


                                 Party ID
                          Rep.    Dem.   Ind.
                            %       %      %
    Rudy Giuliani            14      11     10
    Mitt Romney              14      12     10
    Sarah Palin              12       7      5
    Ron Paul                  5       5     10
    Rick Perry                8       1      6
    Michele Bachmann          6       2      6
    Jon Huntsman, Jr.         2       4      2
    Herman Cain               4       1      4
    Tim Pawlenty              4     *        1
    Newt Gingrich             3     *        1
    Rick Santorum             1       1    *
    Thaddeus McCotter       *       *        1
    Gary Johnson            *         1    *
    Not at all sure          28      53     42


                                 Philosophy
                          Cons.    Mod.   Lib.
                             %       %      %
    Rudy Giuliani             10      12     13
    Mitt Romney               11      11     13
    Sarah Palin                9       8      7
    Ron Paul                   6       6      8
    Rick Perry                10       2      2
    Michele Bachmann           8       3      2
    Jon Huntsman, Jr.          1       2      9
    Herman Cain                5       3      1
    Tim Pawlenty               3       1    *
    Newt Gingrich              3     *        1
    Rick Santorum              1       1    *
    Thaddeus McCotter        *         1    *
    Gary Johnson               1     *      *
    Not at all sure           34      51     44


    Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; * indicates
    less than .05%; NA indicates it was not asked in that poll.

                               TABLE 3A
                2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - REPUBLICAN
                     CANDIDATE OR PRESIDENT OBAMA
    "Looking at the list below, assuming each person listed is the
       Republican nominee running against President Obama in the
         2012 presidential election, who would you vote for?"
    Base: All adults

                            Would vote for
                      President       The
                         Obama    Republican
                                    nominee
                           %           %
    Thaddeus
     McCotter                 57           43
    Gary Johnson              56           44
    Herman Cain               56           44
    Jon Huntsman,
     Jr.                      55           45
    Rick Santorum             55           45
    Rick Perry                54           46
    Michele Bachmann          54           46
    Tim Pawlenty              54           46
    Newt Gingrich             54           46
    Sarah Palin               54           46
    Ron Paul                  50           50
    Mitt Romney               49           51
    Rudy Giuliani             47           53


    Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

                                        TABLE 3B
          2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE OR PRESIDENT OBAMA
             "Looking at the list below, assuming each person listed is the
             Republican nominee running against President Obama in the 2012
                    presidential election, who would you vote for?"
               Summary of those who would vote for the Republican nominee
    Base: All adults

                       Total   Total    Total
                       March     May    July
                        2011    2011     2011

                         %       %       %
    Rudy Giuliani         51       51      53
    Mitt Romney           49       49      51
    Ron Paul            NA         45      50
    Sarah Palin           42       42      46
    Newt Gingrich         44       44      46
    Tim Pawlenty          44       42      46
    Michele Bachmann      41       42      46
    Rick Perry          NA       NA        46
    Rick Santorum         43       43      45
    Jon Huntsman,
     Jr.                NA         41      45
    Herman Cain         NA         41      44
    Gary Johnson        NA         43      44
    Thaddeus
     McCotter           NA       NA        43


                             Party ID
                      Rep.    Dem.   Ind.
                        %       %      %
    Rudy Giuliani        89      24     56
    Mitt Romney          87      21     55
    Ron Paul             83      18     57
    Sarah Palin          79      20     48
    Newt Gingrich        82      15     49
    Tim Pawlenty         83      15     49
    Michele Bachmann     81      18     49
    Rick Perry           82      17     48
    Rick Santorum        81      15     48
    Jon Huntsman,
     Jr.                 81      16     46
    Herman Cain          79      15     46
    Gary Johnson         80      15     45
    Thaddeus
     McCotter            79      15     44


                             Philosophy          Tea
                                                Party
                                               Support
                      Cons.    Mod.   Lib.
                         %       %      %       %
    Rudy Giuliani         84      48     19       87
    Mitt Romney           84      45     19       87
    Ron Paul              82      42     19       85
    Sarah Palin           78      40     13       83
    Newt Gingrich         81      37     15       82
    Tim Pawlenty          80      38     13       83
    Michele Bachmann      79      39     13       83
    Rick Perry            80      38     14       84
    Rick Santorum         79      37     14       83
    Jon Huntsman,
     Jr.                  77      37     14       81
    Herman Cain           77      37     12       81
    Gary Johnson          78      36     12       80
    Thaddeus
     McCotter             77      36     12       80


    Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; NA
    indicates it was not asked in that poll.

Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between July 11 to 18, 2011 among 2,183 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.

J40488
Q1218, 1225, 1230, 1240, 1250

The Harris Poll(®) #87, July 26, 2011
By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive

About Harris Interactive

Harris Interactive is one of the world's leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American, European, and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us - and our clients - stay ahead of what's next. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.

Press Contact:
Corporate Communications
Harris Interactive
212-539-9600
[email protected]

SOURCE Harris Interactive

More Stories By PR Newswire

Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Latest Stories
Red Hat is investing in Tesora, the number one contributor to OpenStack Trove Database as a Service (DBaaS) also ranked among the top 20 companies contributing to OpenStack overall. Tesora, the company bringing OpenStack Trove Database as a Service (DBaaS) to the enterprise, has announced that Red Hat and others have invested in the company as a part of Tesora's latest funding round. The funding agreement expands on the ongoing collaboration between Tesora and Red Hat, which dates back to Febr...
The Internet of Things (IoT) is about the digitization of physical assets including sensors, devices, machines, gateways, and the network. It creates possibilities for significant value creation and new revenue generating business models via data democratization and ubiquitous analytics across IoT networks. The explosion of data in all forms in IoT requires a more robust and broader lens in order to enable smarter timely actions and better outcomes. Business operations become the key driver of I...
SYS-CON Events announced today that DataClear Inc. will exhibit at the 17th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. The DataClear ‘BlackBox’ is the only solution that moves your PC, browsing and data out of the United States and away from prying (and spying) eyes. Its solution automatically builds you a clean, on-demand, virus free, new virtual cloud based PC outside of the United States, and wipes it clean...
In their Live Hack” presentation at 17th Cloud Expo, Stephen Coty and Paul Fletcher, Chief Security Evangelists at Alert Logic, will provide the audience with a chance to see a live demonstration of the common tools cyber attackers use to attack cloud and traditional IT systems. This “Live Hack” uses open source attack tools that are free and available for download by anybody. Attendees will learn where to find and how to operate these tools for the purpose of testing their own IT infrastructu...
It’s been proven time and time again that in tech, diversity drives greater innovation, better team productivity and greater profits and market share. So what can we do in our DevOps teams to embrace diversity and help transform the culture of development and operations into a true “DevOps” team? In her session at DevOps Summit, Stefana Muller, Director, Product Management – Continuous Delivery at CA Technologies, answered that question citing examples, showing how to create opportunities for ...
SYS-CON Events announced today that IceWarp will exhibit at the 17th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. IceWarp, the leader of cloud and on-premise messaging, delivers secured email, chat, documents, conferencing and collaboration to today's mobile workforce, all in one unified interface
Culture is the most important ingredient of DevOps. The challenge for most organizations is defining and communicating a vision of beneficial DevOps culture for their organizations, and then facilitating the changes needed to achieve that. Often this comes down to an ability to provide true leadership. As a CIO, are your direct reports IT managers or are they IT leaders? The hard truth is that many IT managers have risen through the ranks based on their technical skills, not their leadership ab...
A producer of the first smartphones and tablets, presenter Lee M. Williams will talk about how he is now applying his experience in mobile technology to the design and development of the next generation of Environmental and Sustainability Services at ETwater. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Lee Williams, COO of ETwater, will talk about how he is now applying his experience in mobile technology to the design and development of the next generation of Environmental and Sustainability Services at ET...
WebRTC has had a real tough three or four years, and so have those working with it. Only a few short years ago, the development world were excited about WebRTC and proclaiming how awesome it was. You might have played with the technology a couple of years ago, only to find the extra infrastructure requirements were painful to implement and poorly documented. This probably left a bitter taste in your mouth, especially when things went wrong.
Whether you like it or not, DevOps is on track for a remarkable alliance with security. The SEC didn’t approve the merger. And your boss hasn’t heard anything about it. Yet, this unruly triumvirate will soon dominate and deliver DevSecOps faster, cheaper, better, and on an unprecedented scale. In his session at DevOps Summit, Frank Bunger, VP of Customer Success at ScriptRock, will discuss how this cathartic moment will propel the DevOps movement from such stuff as dreams are made on to a prac...
Cloud and datacenter migration innovator AppZero has joined the Microsoft Enterprise Cloud Alliance Program. AppZero is a fast, flexible way to move Windows Server applications from any source machine – physical or virtual – to any destination server, in any cloud or datacenter, using its patented container technology. AppZero’s container is also called a Virtual Application Appliance (VAA). To facilitate Microsoft Azure onboarding, AppZero has two purpose-built offerings: AppZero SP for Azure,...
WSM International, the pioneer and leader in server migration services, has announced an agreement with WHOA.com, a leader in providing secure public, private and hybrid cloud computing services. Under terms of the agreement, WSM will provide migration services to WHOA.com customers to relocate some or all of their applications, digital assets, and other computing workloads to WHOA.com enterprise-class, secure cloud infrastructure. The migration services include detailed evaluation and planning...
This Enterprise Strategy Group lab validation report of the NEC Express5800/R320 server with Intel® Xeon® processor presents the benefits of 99.999% uptime NEC fault-tolerant servers that lower overall virtualized server total cost of ownership. This report also includes survey data on the significant costs associated with system outages impacting enterprise and web applications. Click Here to Download Report Now!
IBM’s Blue Box Cloud, powered by OpenStack, is now available in any of IBM’s globally integrated cloud data centers running SoftLayer infrastructure. Less than 90 days after its acquisition of Blue Box, IBM has integrated its Blue Box Cloud Dedicated private-cloud-as-a-service into its broader portfolio of OpenStack® based solutions. The announcement, made today at the OpenStack Silicon Valley event, further highlights IBM’s continued support to deliver OpenStack solutions across all cloud depl...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Pythian, a global IT services company specializing in helping companies leverage disruptive technologies to optimize revenue-generating systems, has been named “Bronze Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 17th Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Founded in 1997, Pythian is a global IT services company that helps companies compete by adopting disruptive technologies such as cloud, Big Data, advance...