|By PR Newswire||
|July 26, 2011 06:04 AM EDT||
NEW YORK, July 26, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- By this time next summer the Republican candidate who will challenge President Obama will be known but at this point the list of candidates and potential candidates for the nomination is still far from finalized. With the "will-he-or-she-run-questions" still being asked and answered, some of the names with the highest familiarity among the general public are still not even declared candidates.
Obviously because of her run for Vice President with John McCain, almost nine in ten Americans (86%) are familiar with Sarah Palin and 75% of U.S. adults are familiar with Rudy Giuliani, both of whom are still undeclared, but possible candidates for the nomination. Majorities of Americans are familiar with declared candidates Newt Gingrich (72%), Mitt Romney (67%), and Ron Paul (52%) while half are familiar with Michele Bachmann (50%). All other potential candidates are at 30% or under in terms of familiarity.
These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,183 adults surveyed online between July 11 and 18, 2011 by Harris Interactive.
Even among Republicans, many declared candidates do not have majorities familiar with them. Tim Pawlenty (33%), Rick Santorum (31%), Herman Cain (29%), and Jon Huntsman (15%) all have one-third of Republicans or less familiar with them.
With this in mind, it's not surprising then that among Republicans over one-quarter (28%) say they are not at all sure who they would vote for if they were voting in the Republican primary. Rudy Giuliani (14%) and Mitt Romney (14%) rise to the top among Republicans followed by Sarah Palin (12%). All the other candidates presented are under 10% including Rick Perry (8%), Michele Bachmann (6%), and Ron Paul (5%). Among Independents there is a three tie for "first place" between Rudy Giuliani (10%), Mitt Romney (10%) and Ron Paul (10%). But over two in five Independents (42%) say they are not at all sure who they would vote for in the Republican primary election.
Against President Obama
Looking ahead to November, it seems there are three possible candidates who could give President Obama a difficult time. President Obama would lose his re-election if Rudy Giuliani (53% to 47%) or Mitt Romney (51% to 49%) was the Republican nominee. Each candidate would receive 50% of the vote if the President was running against Ron Paul. Right now, President Obama would win re-election against the 10 other candidates presented.
Right now the Republican party needs to figure out who they are and begin the process of coalescing around one candidate. In the study of politics, there is always a debate regarding electability and this election may show that clearly. Should Republicans nominate a candidate who stands for certain values or policies important to a sub-section of the party, even though that candidate may not be electable in the general election? This is a question the Republican party needs to answer if they want to win next November.
TABLE 1A REPUBLICAN FAMILIARITY "How familiar are you with each of the following people?" Base: All adults
Familiar Very Somewhat (NET) familiar familiar % % % Sarah Palin 86 48 38 Rudy Giuliani 75 37 39 Newt Gingrich 72 35 37 Mitt Romney 67 29 38 Ron Paul 52 19 33 Michele Bachmann 50 19 31 Rick Perry 30 13 17 Tim Pawlenty 28 9 19 Rick Santorum 28 10 18 Herman Cain 22 7 15 Jon Huntsman, Jr. 15 4 11 Gary Johnson 8 3 5 Thaddeus McCotter 8 3 5
Not Not Not at familiar very all (NET) familiar familiar % % % Sarah Palin 14 8 5 Rudy Giuliani 25 11 14 Newt Gingrich 28 14 13 Mitt Romney 33 16 16 Ron Paul 48 21 27 Michele Bachmann 50 18 32 Rick Perry 70 20 50 Tim Pawlenty 72 22 50 Rick Santorum 72 20 52 Herman Cain 78 18 60 Jon Huntsman, Jr. 85 22 63 Gary Johnson 92 18 74 Thaddeus McCotter 92 15 77
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 1B REPUBLICAN FAMILIARITY "How familiar are you with each of the following people?" Summary of those saying "Very familiar" or "Somewhat familiar" Base: All adults
Total Party ID Rep. Dem. Ind. % % % % Sarah Palin 86 88 89 89 Rudy Giuliani 75 77 77 78 Newt Gingrich 72 76 74 76 Mitt Romney 67 74 65 73 Ron Paul 52 55 50 60 Michele Bachmann 50 50 50 55 Rick Perry 30 38 26 30 Tim Pawlenty 28 33 25 33 Rick Santorum 28 31 27 32 Herman Cain 22 29 17 25 Jon Huntsman, Jr. 15 15 17 16 Gary Johnson 8 11 7 8 Thaddeus McCotter 8 8 7 8
Philosophy Cons. Mod. Lib. % % % Sarah Palin 85 86 91 Rudy Giuliani 74 74 80 Newt Gingrich 76 69 74 Mitt Romney 69 65 70 Ron Paul 54 48 59 Michele Bachmann 53 43 59 Rick Perry 37 26 29 Tim Pawlenty 32 25 33 Rick Santorum 33 23 32 Herman Cain 32 16 21 Jon Huntsman, Jr. 17 11 23 Gary Johnson 9 7 8 Thaddeus McCotter 6 8 7
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 2 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTION "If you were voting in the Republican primary election and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?" Base: All adults
Total Total Total March May July 2011 2011 2011 % % % Rudy Giuliani 8 8 11 Mitt Romney 10 10 11 Sarah Palin 7 5 8 Ron Paul NA 6 7 Rick Perry NA NA 5 Michele Bachmann 2 2 4 Jon Huntsman, Jr. NA 1 3 Herman Cain NA 2 3 Tim Pawlenty 2 2 1 Newt Gingrich 5 4 1 Rick Santorum 1 * 1 Thaddeus McCotter NA NA * Gary Johnson NA 1 * Not at all sure 45 42 44
Party ID Rep. Dem. Ind. % % % Rudy Giuliani 14 11 10 Mitt Romney 14 12 10 Sarah Palin 12 7 5 Ron Paul 5 5 10 Rick Perry 8 1 6 Michele Bachmann 6 2 6 Jon Huntsman, Jr. 2 4 2 Herman Cain 4 1 4 Tim Pawlenty 4 * 1 Newt Gingrich 3 * 1 Rick Santorum 1 1 * Thaddeus McCotter * * 1 Gary Johnson * 1 * Not at all sure 28 53 42
Philosophy Cons. Mod. Lib. % % % Rudy Giuliani 10 12 13 Mitt Romney 11 11 13 Sarah Palin 9 8 7 Ron Paul 6 6 8 Rick Perry 10 2 2 Michele Bachmann 8 3 2 Jon Huntsman, Jr. 1 2 9 Herman Cain 5 3 1 Tim Pawlenty 3 1 * Newt Gingrich 3 * 1 Rick Santorum 1 1 * Thaddeus McCotter * 1 * Gary Johnson 1 * * Not at all sure 34 51 44
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; * indicates less than .05%; NA indicates it was not asked in that poll.
TABLE 3A 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE OR PRESIDENT OBAMA "Looking at the list below, assuming each person listed is the Republican nominee running against President Obama in the 2012 presidential election, who would you vote for?" Base: All adults
Would vote for President The Obama Republican nominee % % Thaddeus McCotter 57 43 Gary Johnson 56 44 Herman Cain 56 44 Jon Huntsman, Jr. 55 45 Rick Santorum 55 45 Rick Perry 54 46 Michele Bachmann 54 46 Tim Pawlenty 54 46 Newt Gingrich 54 46 Sarah Palin 54 46 Ron Paul 50 50 Mitt Romney 49 51 Rudy Giuliani 47 53
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 3B 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE OR PRESIDENT OBAMA "Looking at the list below, assuming each person listed is the Republican nominee running against President Obama in the 2012 presidential election, who would you vote for?" Summary of those who would vote for the Republican nominee Base: All adults
Total Total Total March May July 2011 2011 2011 % % % Rudy Giuliani 51 51 53 Mitt Romney 49 49 51 Ron Paul NA 45 50 Sarah Palin 42 42 46 Newt Gingrich 44 44 46 Tim Pawlenty 44 42 46 Michele Bachmann 41 42 46 Rick Perry NA NA 46 Rick Santorum 43 43 45 Jon Huntsman, Jr. NA 41 45 Herman Cain NA 41 44 Gary Johnson NA 43 44 Thaddeus McCotter NA NA 43
Party ID Rep. Dem. Ind. % % % Rudy Giuliani 89 24 56 Mitt Romney 87 21 55 Ron Paul 83 18 57 Sarah Palin 79 20 48 Newt Gingrich 82 15 49 Tim Pawlenty 83 15 49 Michele Bachmann 81 18 49 Rick Perry 82 17 48 Rick Santorum 81 15 48 Jon Huntsman, Jr. 81 16 46 Herman Cain 79 15 46 Gary Johnson 80 15 45 Thaddeus McCotter 79 15 44
Philosophy Tea Party Support Cons. Mod. Lib. % % % % Rudy Giuliani 84 48 19 87 Mitt Romney 84 45 19 87 Ron Paul 82 42 19 85 Sarah Palin 78 40 13 83 Newt Gingrich 81 37 15 82 Tim Pawlenty 80 38 13 83 Michele Bachmann 79 39 13 83 Rick Perry 80 38 14 84 Rick Santorum 79 37 14 83 Jon Huntsman, Jr. 77 37 14 81 Herman Cain 77 37 12 81 Gary Johnson 78 36 12 80 Thaddeus McCotter 77 36 12 80
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; NA indicates it was not asked in that poll.
This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between July 11 to 18, 2011 among 2,183 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.
All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.
Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.
Q1218, 1225, 1230, 1240, 1250
The Harris Poll(®) #87, July 26, 2011
By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive
About Harris Interactive
Harris Interactive is one of the world's leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American, European, and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us - and our clients - stay ahead of what's next. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.
SOURCE Harris Interactive
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