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THE RACE IS ON; Obama's Lead Increases, Warren and Brown in Dead Heat

BOSTON, Sept. 10, 2012 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- In the days following the Democratic Convention President Obama has extended his lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney to 16 points (56 percent to 40 percent with 9% undecided) according to a Kimball Political Consulting survey of "likely voters" in Massachusetts.

Senator Scott Brown has less than a 1 point lead over Democrat Elizabeth Warren (46 percent to 45 percent) with 9 percent undecided. The figure is well within the survey's 3.5 percent margin of error.

"While pundits often suggest that conventions have little effect on voters these results contradict that assumption," explained Spencer Kimball, a Republican Strategist who conducted the poll. Compared to an earlier survey of the "most likely to vote" population two weeks before the convention Obama gained 5 points while Brown dropped by 5 immediately after the Democratic convention.

"Both Senator Brown and Elizabeth Warren are carrying very high favorability rating at over 50% each.  This may be the result of both campaigns' pledge to keep outside money from buying negative ads," said Kimball.  

There had been questions going into the Republican Convention regarding whether Senator Brown would take the podium, but citing a conflict with his duty as a reservist with the Army National Guard he did not make a speech. Elizabeth Warren spoke prior to President Bill Clinton on Wednesday night of the Democrat Convention.

According to the poll the most important issue facing likely voters in Massachusetts is jobs at 28 percent followed closely by the deficit at 26 percent and healthcare at 22% (all within the margin of error).

The statewide survey of 756 Massachusetts likely voters was conducted over the weekend of September 7, 8 and 9, 2012, using automated telephone interviews of landline and cell phone users. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. Frequencies and full cross-tabulation data are available on the www.kimballpc.com website.

http://www.kimballpoliticalconsulting.com/KPC_MA_9_10_Analysis.pdf

http://www.kimballpoliticalconsulting.com/KPC_Frequency_and_Cross%20Tabulations_MA_9_10.pdf

http://www.kimballpoliticalconsulting.com/KPC_Survey_Instrument_MA_9_10.pdf

SOURCE Kimball Political Consulting

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