Welcome!

News Feed Item

USD to Stay Strong Despite the US Fiscal Cliff and the Fed's Open-Ended QE Programme

LONDON, November 7, 2012 /PRNewswire/ --

  • Obama winning a second term may mean a short term pop in risk appetite, but could mean the risk of a worse fiscal cliff and few policy developments going forward due to political gridlock
  • The US fiscal cliff is a real threat to the US economy, but certainly not to the US Dollar - quite the opposite
  • Latest e-book from Saxo Capital Markets launched, arguing the Fed's QE will not kill the US Dollar

The US Dollar will remain a strong currency in the medium term despite the looming US fiscal cliff and the harmful effects of the Federal Reserve's open-ended and theoretically unlimited quantitative easing (QE) programme, says Saxo Capital Markets UK.

John J. Hardy, Head of FX Strategy at Saxo, comments:

"Obama's re-election means political and Federal Reserve business as usual in the US - but also means plenty of uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff.

In "The Dollar & the Fed: QE won't break the buck", the first e-book in Saxo Capital Markets' FX Debates Series, Saxo envisages that the USA and its currency are in a far superior position than the other major countries thanks to stronger fundamentals. As a consequence, the Dollar is likely to stay stable or appreciate over the next 12 months.

Hardy continues:

"The Dollar still looks better than most other major currencies regardless of the fact that QE is not working and is not the right prescription for the economy.

"The Federal Reserve's aggressive quantitative easing programme, while it may have kept the economy on a kind of life support and prevented a steep deflationary environment in the initial phases of the deleveraging cycle, has done little to address the structural problems of the economy. In fact, at this point, it risks inflicting harm rather than helping. It presents risks of new asset bubbles - most dangerously in commodities - and keeps too much of the worst kind of debt in the system alive while meting out negative real interest rates on savers.

"The way Obama and the lame duck Congress tackle the impending fiscal cliff will be of crucial importance for the US economy. Ironically, the worse the fiscal cliff, the better the Dollar will likely do because the US Dollar is so linked to global risk appetite and the threat of a US recession would likely see the USD appreciate.

"Another big USD event in the pipeline is next year's appointment of a possible new Fed Chairman if Bernanke decides not to run or if the political environment proves hostile to nominating someone of Bernanke's always-QE-all-the-time stripes. The process starts as early as mid-2013 and could prove quite a distraction. Any threat to the Fed's QE gravy train or suggestion that someone of a less-dovish bent could replace the Fed chairman could see the USD soar.

According to Saxo Capital Markets, the US economy is still better placed relative to other large countries. The main factors supporting the Dollar include:

  • A difficult transition period in China - the country needs to make large structural adjustments in order to boost domestic consumption to replace dwindling demand from abroad;
  • The 'reshoring initiative' has started as US manufacturing costs have become far more competitive for some companies relative to China.
  • The 'Shale Gas Revolution' in the US means producers can look forward to vastly cheaper energy than the rest of the world pays for gas-driven electricity and heating. It's a boon to consumers as well.
  • The US demographic profile if far younger than Japan and Europe where the proportion of pensioners is soaring and will continue to do so far more quickly than in the US for decades;
  • The US Government could consider a second round of the Homeland Investment Act (HIA), which could stimulate the economy without adding to the fiscal burden by allowing US corporations to repatriate foreign profits with either no tax or very little. The potential USD-positive flow from this alone is in the hundreds of billions of USD;
  • The Eurozone crisis weakening the Euro;
  • The currencies of the commodity economies (e.g. Canada and Australia) are currently overvalued.

The #FXdebates series of articles will be published bi-weekly over the next four months, leading the way to an event in February 2012 in collaboration with Bloomberg LINK.  

The other articles in the #FXdebates series will focus on:

  • Gold - Just another currency?
  • The Euro in Crisis
  • Currency Wars: Battle Of The Weakest
  • Yuan Diplomacy

For more information please see: http://uk.saxomarkets.com/fxdebates

Follow the debates via twitter: https://twitter.com/SaxoMarketsUK

Hashtag: #FXdebates

About Saxo Capital Markets

Saxo Capital Markets UK Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group, an international financial services group specialising in trading and investment across global financial markets. Saxo Bank has operated in the UK since March 2006, initially as a branch of Saxo Bank A/S and since 1 January, 2012 as Saxo Capital Markets UK Limited.

Saxo Capital Markets UK offers private investors online trading and investment in FX, CFDs, ETFs, Stocks, Futures, Options and other derivatives, and online wealth management for Funds, Shares, ETFs, Certificates and Bonds. Saxo Capital Markets UK also offers online trading services to a broad institutional client base including Hedge Funds, Introducing Brokers and Money Managers through our award-winning trading platform SaxoTrader, SaxoWebTrader and SaxoMobileTrader and Saxo's B2B/API services.

Additionally a large base of Banks, Brokers, Asset and Money managers, utilise our award winning white label solutions, in order to provide their clients with access to all or some of our trading platforms and associated liquidity.

Find out more about FX Trading opportunities with Saxo Capital Markets.

Media enquiries

Uriel Alvarado Cancino, Chief Public Relations and Marketing Officer, Saxo Capital Markets UK
+44-(0)207-151-2026
[email protected]

Nicholle De Beer, Public Relations and Marketing Manager, Saxo Capital Markets UK
+44-(0)207-151-2024
[email protected]

Smithfield
+44(0)20-7360-4900
[email protected]

More Stories By PR Newswire

Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Latest Stories
Cloud promises the agility required by today’s digital businesses. As organizations adopt cloud based infrastructures and services, their IT resources become increasingly dynamic and hybrid in nature. Managing these require modern IT operations and tools. In his session at 20th Cloud Expo, Raj Sundaram, Senior Principal Product Manager at CA Technologies, will discuss how to modernize your IT operations in order to proactively manage your hybrid cloud and IT environments. He will be sharing bes...
SYS-CON Events announced today that T-Mobile will exhibit at SYS-CON's 20th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. As America's Un-carrier, T-Mobile US, Inc., is redefining the way consumers and businesses buy wireless services through leading product and service innovation. The Company's advanced nationwide 4G LTE network delivers outstanding wireless experiences to 67.4 million customers who are unwilling to compromise on ...
Five years ago development was seen as a dead-end career, now it’s anything but – with an explosion in mobile and IoT initiatives increasing the demand for skilled engineers. But apart from having a ready supply of great coders, what constitutes true ‘DevOps Royalty’? It’ll be the ability to craft resilient architectures, supportability, security everywhere across the software lifecycle. In his keynote at @DevOpsSummit at 20th Cloud Expo, Jeffrey Scheaffer, GM and SVP, Continuous Delivery Busine...
SYS-CON Events announced today that SoftLayer, an IBM Company, has been named “Gold Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 18th Cloud Expo, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York, New York. SoftLayer, an IBM Company, provides cloud infrastructure as a service from a growing number of data centers and network points of presence around the world. SoftLayer’s customers range from Web startups to global enterprises.
While some vendors scramble to create and sell you a fancy solution for monitoring your spanking new Amazon Lambdas, hear how you can do it on the cheap using just built-in Java APIs yourself. By exploiting a little-known fact that Lambdas aren’t exactly single threaded, you can effectively identify hot spots in your serverless code. In his session at 20th Cloud Expo, David Martin, Principal Product Owner at CA Technologies, will give a live demonstration and code walkthrough, showing how to ov...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Peak 10, Inc., a national IT infrastructure and cloud services provider, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 20th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Peak 10 provides reliable, tailored data center and network services, cloud and managed services. Its solutions are designed to scale and adapt to customers’ changing business needs, enabling them to lower costs, improve performance and focus intern...
Automation is enabling enterprises to design, deploy, and manage more complex, hybrid cloud environments. Yet the people who manage these environments must be trained in and understanding these environments better than ever before. A new era of analytics and cognitive computing is adding intelligence, but also more complexity, to these cloud environments. How smart is your cloud? How smart should it be? In this power panel at 20th Cloud Expo, moderated by Conference Chair Roger Strukhoff, pane...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Progress, a global leader in application development, has been named “Bronze Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 20th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Enterprises today are rapidly adopting the cloud, while continuing to retain business-critical/sensitive data inside the firewall. This is creating two separate data silos – one inside the firewall and the other outside the firewall. Cloud ISVs ofte...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Linux Academy, the foremost online Linux and cloud training platform and community, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 20th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Linux Academy was founded on the belief that providing high-quality, in-depth training should be available at an affordable price. Industry leaders in quality training, provided services, and student certification passes, its goal is to c...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Hitachi Data Systems, a wholly owned subsidiary of Hitachi LTD., will exhibit at SYS-CON's 20th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City. Hitachi Data Systems (HDS) will be featuring the Hitachi Content Platform (HCP) portfolio. This is the industry’s only offering that allows organizations to bring together object storage, file sync and share, cloud storage gateways, and sophisticated search and...
DevOps at Cloud Expo – being held October 31 - November 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA – announces that its Call for Papers is open. Born out of proven success in agile development, cloud computing, and process automation, DevOps is a macro trend you cannot afford to miss. From showcase success stories from early adopters and web-scale businesses, DevOps is expanding to organizations of all sizes, including the world's largest enterprises – and delivering real r...
Internet of @ThingsExpo, taking place October 31 - November 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, is co-located with the 21st International Cloud Expo and will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. @ThingsExpo Silicon Valley Call for Papers is now open.
SYS-CON Events announced today that DivvyCloud will exhibit at SYS-CON's 20th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. DivvyCloud software enables organizations to achieve their cloud computing goals by simplifying and automating security, compliance and cost optimization of public and private cloud infrastructure. Using DivvyCloud, customers can leverage programmatic Bots to identify and remediate common cloud problems in rea...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Tintri, Inc, a leading provider of enterprise cloud infrastructure, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 20th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Tintri offers an enterprise cloud platform built with public cloud-like web services and RESTful APIs. Organizations use Tintri all-flash storage with scale-out and automation as a foundation for their own clouds – to build agile development environments...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Fusion, a leading provider of cloud services, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 20th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Fusion, a leading provider of integrated cloud solutions to small, medium and large businesses, is the industry’s single source for the cloud. Fusion’s advanced, proprietary cloud service platform enables the integration of leading edge solutions in the cloud, including cloud...