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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan Declines

NEW YORK, Nov. 13, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan declined 0.4 percent in September to 93.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent decline in August, and a 0.9 percent decline in July.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan, a measure of current economic activity, declined 0.7 percent in September to 95.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decline in August, and a 0.3 percent decline in July.

The Conference Board LEI for Japan has been falling for the past six consecutive months, and is now at about the same level as April of last year, following the earthquake/tsunami disaster. At the same time, The Conference Board CEI for Japan also declined in September, its third consecutive decline, and its six-month change remains negative. Taken together, the composite indexes and their components suggest that the rate of economic growth is likely to remain very slow in the near term, and that the risk of an economic downturn continues to rise.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include:

Operating Profits
Dwelling Units Started
Business Failures
Index of Overtime Worked
Stock Prices (TOPIX)
Six-Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity
Tankan Business Conditions Survey
Money Supply
Yield Spread
New Orders for Machinery and Construction

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=5

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.  www.conference-board.org.


Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2012

6-month


Jul



Aug



Sep



Mar to Sep

Leading Economic index (LEI)

94.5

p


94.0

p


93.6

p




Percent Change

-0.9

p


-0.5

p


-0.4

p


-4.5

p

Diffusion

45.0



45.0



45.0



30.0














Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

96.6

p


96.5

p


95.8

p




Percent Change

-0.3

p


-0.1

p


-0.7

p


-2.2

p

Diffusion

25.0



37.5



37.5



37.5














n.a. Not available     p Preliminary     r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board       All Rights Reserved


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