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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China Rises Sharply in October

BEIJING, Nov. 20, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 1.5 percent in October to 245.5 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in September and a 1.7 percent increase in August. Five of the six components contributed positively to the index in October.

"The LEI picked up momentum in October, suggesting a moderate rebound is underway that may carry into the first half of 2013," says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing. "Growth was driven primarily by renewed real estate activity and upbeat consumer expectations, two areas which have been highly volatile in recent months. As such, the strength and sustainability of the economy's acceleration remains questionable. Meanwhile, the CEI showed its strongest and broadest growth in several months, aligning with a raft of recent data suggesting that the cyclical slowdown, which began in the second half of 2011, has likely passed its trough."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 1.3 percent in October to 227.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in both September and August. All five components contributed positively to the index in October.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People's Bank of China)

5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People's Bank of China)

NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2012 indicator releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org

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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2012

6-month


  Aug

Sep

Oct

Apr to Oct









Leading Economic Index (LEI)  

241.2

p  

241.8

p  

245.5

p


   Percent Change  

1.7

p  

0.2

p  

1.5

p  

5.7

   Diffusion  

83.3


83.3


75.0


83.3









Coincident Economic Index (CEI)  

223.4

r  

224.8


227.8

p


   Percent Change  

0.6

r  

0.6


1.3

p  

4.8

   Diffusion  

100.0


80.0


100.0


100.0









n.a. Not available    p Preliminary    r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board      All Rights Reserved

 

SOURCE The Conference Board

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