|By PR Newswire||
|December 3, 2012 03:28 AM EST||
LONDON, December 3, 2012 /PRNewswire/ --
- A Greek exit and profound restructuring could be the least painful scenario for saving the Eurozone
- Latest e-book from Saxo Capital Markets argues Eurozone needs to reach rock-bottom before recovery
The Eurozone will bounce back only once its leaders and inhabitants end up in such a desperate situation that they realise the only way out is through radical change, says Saxo Capital Markets.
Steen Jakobsen, Chief Analyst at Saxo, comments:
"We are now nearing the point of no return for Europe. Time is running out for Europe as 2012 became an issue of letting the central banks do the dirty job of keeping the tail-risk away though Draghi's put and general easy monetary policy."
"A Greek exit may sound like a frightening scenario, but profoundly restructuring the Eurozone may be less painful than a slow Japanese style death, with deflation, massive fiscal deficits, negative real-rates, housing prices lower than 30 years ago and a stock market valuation at less than 50% of its peak."
In "The Euro in crisis", the third chapter of the e-book in Saxo Capital Markets' FX Debates Series, Saxo analyses the unfolding of the Eurozone crisis as a three-stage process, following its evolution through phases of denial, protest and, ultimately, change.
Steen Jakobsen explains:
"First, in the denial phase we have fiscal stimulus. Then in the protest phase we have changes of political figureheads where there is no real change, but with some milder fiscal stimulus underneath. Then, ultimately, we move to a serious mandate for change. The Eurozone will bounce back only once its leaders and citizens, prompted by social unrest, realise and accept that the only way out is through radical change."
About social unrest Steen Jakobsen comments:
"It's very likely that someone who is getting their salary pummeled, their disposable income pummeled, and their purchasing power pummeled gets upset because, with the high stock market, the richest 1% and the corporations are making all the money. History shows that when the source of tension becomes too big, things can blow up. That's where we are at today."
Saxo Capital Markets sees three potential outcomes to the Eurozone debt crisis:
• Meeting of the Cardinals - 20%probability
• Extend-and-pretend Squared - 60% probability
• Doom-and-Gloom - 20% probability
Meeting of the Cardinals
The Meeting of the Cardinals (MoC) will be the only orderly solution dictated by rational and practical solutions, where some countries need to leave the Euro, whether permanently or for a tempory period.
"Here, the guinea pig will most likely be Greece. This will force Club Med to the table and make them accept further loss of sovereignty on fiscal and monetary policy, most likely in a German model where the European Court of Justice becomes the highest-ranking authority.
"The MoC scenario will likely lead to a short-term negative market reaction and a deep one-to-three year recession. However, this could also trigger the final phase of the three-phase crisis model: Mandate for Change. Inside the mandate for change there is a V-shaped recovery when reforms are initiated from the low point. For investors, the MoC is the best solution as it will lead to several years of prosperity amid better debt-to-equity, more realistic future expectations, and a public sector under control."
According to Jakobsen, the more likely scenario, however, is that Eurozone policy markets will continue to use delay tactics.
"The extend-and-pretend forever solution is about buying time - more of the same patch work solutions, slowly forcing Europe towards fiscal consolidation, not changing the Maastricht Treaty but the European Central Bank (ECB) charter to allow it to be lender-of-last-resort. This is the final phase of 'Maximum Intervention' - bigger and bigger direct support on liquidity and no impact on the solvency. This outcome is a vicious circle as every time the major central banks start the printing press, people's purchasing power diminishes." explains Jakobsen.
Under this scenario there are no good solutions to this crisis. Markets would re-test their 2009 lows and there will be a deep rooted discontentment with politics and the banking system, which could lead to social unrest and worse.
Steen Jakobsen concludes:
"The magnitude of this debt crisis is far larger than the market realises. The idea that it's merely a question of Germany paying is not only naïve, but also impossible. They cannot and they should not pay - and nor is the ECB the only solution to this debt crisis. There is only one solution: the system must fail and both the Euro and the Eurozone need to be redefined."
"The Euro in crisis" is the third part of Saxo's e-book, #FXdebates - Trading Insights from our Top Analysts, which focuses on trends in currency movements and pairings, the challenges affecting FX traders and advice on key trading strategies. The other articles in the #FXdebates series will focus on:
- The US Dollar (published)
- Yuan Diplomacy (published)
- Gold - Just another currency?
- Currency Wars: Battle Of The Weakest
The #FXdebates series of articles will be published over the next three months, leading the way to an event in February 2012 in collaboration with Bloomberg LINK.
For more information please see: http://uk.saxomarkets.com/fxdebates
Follow the debates via twitter: https://twitter.com/SaxoMarketsUK
About Saxo Capital Markets
Saxo Capital Markets UK Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group, an international financial services group specialising in trading and investment across global financial markets. Saxo Bank has operated in the UK since March 2006, initially as a branch of Saxo Bank A/S and since 1 January, 2012 as Saxo Capital Markets UK Limited.
Saxo Capital Markets UK offers private investors online trading and investment in FX, CFDs, ETFs, Stocks, Futures, Options and other derivatives, and online wealth management for Funds, Shares, ETFs, Certificates and Bonds. Saxo Capital Markets UK also offers online trading services to a broad institutional client base including Hedge Funds, Introducing Brokers and Money Managers through our award-winning trading platform SaxoTrader, SaxoWebTrader and SaxoMobileTrader and Saxo's B2B/API services.
Additionally a large base of Banks, Brokers, Asset and Money managers, utilise our award winning white label solutions, in order to provide their clients with access to all or some of our trading platforms and associated liquidity.
Find out more about FX Trading opportunities with Saxo Capital Markets.
Uriel Alvarado Cancino, Chief Public Relations and Marketing Officer, Saxo Capital Markets UK
+44(0)207-151-2026, [email protected]
Nicholle De Beer, Public Relations and Marketing Manager, Saxo Capital Markets UK
+44(0)207-151-2024, [email protected]
+44(0)20-7360-4900, [email protected]
The essence of data analysis involves setting up data pipelines that consist of several operations that are chained together – starting from data collection, data quality checks, data integration, data analysis and data visualization (including the setting up of interaction paths in that visualization). In our opinion, the challenges stem from the technology diversity at each stage of the data pipeline as well as the lack of process around the analysis.
May. 25, 2016 12:45 PM EDT Reads: 1,145
Designing IoT applications is complex, but deploying them in a scalable fashion is even more complex. A scalable, API first IaaS cloud is a good start, but in order to understand the various components specific to deploying IoT applications, one needs to understand the architecture of these applications and figure out how to scale these components independently. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Nara Rajagopalan is CEO of Accelerite, will discuss the fundamental architecture of IoT applications, ...
May. 25, 2016 12:45 PM EDT Reads: 890
Cloud-based NCLC (No-code/low code) application builder platforms empower everyone in the organization to quickly build applications and executable processes that broaden access, deepen collaboration, and enhance transparency for all team members. Line of business owners (LOBO) and operations managers know best their part of the business and their processes. IT departments are beginning to leverage NCLC platforms to empower and enable LOBOs to lead the innovation, transform the organization, an...
May. 25, 2016 12:00 PM EDT Reads: 1,639
What a difference a year makes. Organizations aren’t just talking about IoT possibilities, it is now baked into their core business strategy. With IoT, billions of devices generating data from different companies on different networks around the globe need to interact. From efficiency to better customer insights to completely new business models, IoT will turn traditional business models upside down. In the new customer-centric age, the key to success is delivering critical services and apps wit...
May. 25, 2016 11:30 AM EDT Reads: 871
A strange thing is happening along the way to the Internet of Things, namely far too many devices to work with and manage. It has become clear that we'll need much higher efficiency user experiences that can allow us to more easily and scalably work with the thousands of devices that will soon be in each of our lives. Enter the conversational interface revolution, combining bots we can literally talk with, gesture to, and even direct with our thoughts, with embedded artificial intelligence, wh...
May. 25, 2016 11:30 AM EDT Reads: 1,826
As cloud and storage projections continue to rise, the number of organizations moving to the cloud is escalating and it is clear cloud storage is here to stay. However, is it secure? Data is the lifeblood for government entities, countries, cloud service providers and enterprises alike and losing or exposing that data can have disastrous results. There are new concepts for data storage on the horizon that will deliver secure solutions for storing and moving sensitive data around the world. ...
May. 25, 2016 11:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,109
SYS-CON Events announced today that ContentMX, the marketing technology and services company with a singular mission to increase engagement and drive more conversations for enterprise, channel and SMB technology marketers, has been named “Sponsor & Exhibitor Lounge Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 18th Cloud Expo, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, New York. “CloudExpo is a great opportunity to start a conversation with new prospects, but what happens after the...
May. 25, 2016 11:00 AM EDT Reads: 822
@DevOpsSummit taking place June 7-9, 2016 at Javits Center, New York City, and Nov 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, is co-located with the 18th International @CloudExpo and will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world.
May. 25, 2016 11:00 AM EDT Reads: 3,280
SYS-CON Events announced today that MangoApps will exhibit at SYS-CON's 18th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. MangoApps provides modern company intranets and team collaboration software, allowing workers to stay connected and productive from anywhere in the world and from any device. For more information, please visit https://www.mangoapps.com/.
May. 25, 2016 10:15 AM EDT Reads: 344
SYS-CON Events announced today the Docker Meets Kubernetes – Intro into the Kubernetes World, being held June 9, 2016, in conjunction with 18th Cloud Expo | @ThingsExpo, at the Javits Center in New York, NY. Register for 'Docker Meets Kubernetes Workshop' Here! This workshop led by Sebastian Scheele, co-founder of Loodse, introduces participants to Kubernetes (container orchestration). Through a combination of instructor-led presentations, demonstrations, and hands-on labs, participants learn ...
May. 25, 2016 10:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,822
The cloud market growth today is largely in public clouds. While there is a lot of spend in IT departments in virtualization, these aren’t yet translating into a true “cloud” experience within the enterprise. What is stopping the growth of the “private cloud” market? In his general session at 18th Cloud Expo, Nara Rajagopalan, CEO of Accelerite, will explore the challenges in deploying, managing, and getting adoption for a private cloud within an enterprise. What are the key differences betwee...
May. 25, 2016 10:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,486
SYS-CON Events announced today that 24Notion has been named “Bronze Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 18th Cloud Expo, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York, New York. 24Notion is full-service global creative digital marketing, technology and lifestyle agency that combines strategic ideas with customized tactical execution. With a broad understand of the art of traditional marketing, new media, communications and social influence, 24Notion uniquely understands how to con...
May. 25, 2016 09:45 AM EDT Reads: 1,704
In his session at 18th Cloud Expo, Andrew Cole, Director of Solutions Engineering at Peak 10, will discuss how the newest technology advances are reducing the cost and complexity of traditional business continuity and disaster recovery solutions. Attendees will: Learn why having a full disaster recovery strategy is more important now than ever before Explore the key drivers of a successful disaster recovery solution Achieve measurable operational and business value from a disaster recovery ...
May. 25, 2016 09:30 AM EDT Reads: 1,248
The initial debate is over: Any enterprise with a serious commitment to IT is migrating to the cloud. But things are not so simple. There is a complex mix of on-premises, colocated, and public-cloud deployments. In this power panel at 18th Cloud Expo, moderated by Conference Chair Roger Strukhoff, panelists will look at the present state of cloud from the C-level view, and how great companies and rock star executives can use cloud computing to meet their most ambitious and disruptive business ...
May. 25, 2016 09:15 AM EDT Reads: 2,053
SYS-CON Events announced today that Hanu Software will exhibit at SYS-CON's 18th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Leveraging best-in-class people, processes, and technologies, Hanu provides high-quality, high-value software development and business process outsourcing services to independent software vendors (ISVs) and enterprises.
May. 25, 2016 09:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,237