|By PR Newswire||
|December 3, 2012 03:28 AM EST||
LONDON, December 3, 2012 /PRNewswire/ --
- A Greek exit and profound restructuring could be the least painful scenario for saving the Eurozone
- Latest e-book from Saxo Capital Markets argues Eurozone needs to reach rock-bottom before recovery
The Eurozone will bounce back only once its leaders and inhabitants end up in such a desperate situation that they realise the only way out is through radical change, says Saxo Capital Markets.
Steen Jakobsen, Chief Analyst at Saxo, comments:
"We are now nearing the point of no return for Europe. Time is running out for Europe as 2012 became an issue of letting the central banks do the dirty job of keeping the tail-risk away though Draghi's put and general easy monetary policy."
"A Greek exit may sound like a frightening scenario, but profoundly restructuring the Eurozone may be less painful than a slow Japanese style death, with deflation, massive fiscal deficits, negative real-rates, housing prices lower than 30 years ago and a stock market valuation at less than 50% of its peak."
In "The Euro in crisis", the third chapter of the e-book in Saxo Capital Markets' FX Debates Series, Saxo analyses the unfolding of the Eurozone crisis as a three-stage process, following its evolution through phases of denial, protest and, ultimately, change.
Steen Jakobsen explains:
"First, in the denial phase we have fiscal stimulus. Then in the protest phase we have changes of political figureheads where there is no real change, but with some milder fiscal stimulus underneath. Then, ultimately, we move to a serious mandate for change. The Eurozone will bounce back only once its leaders and citizens, prompted by social unrest, realise and accept that the only way out is through radical change."
About social unrest Steen Jakobsen comments:
"It's very likely that someone who is getting their salary pummeled, their disposable income pummeled, and their purchasing power pummeled gets upset because, with the high stock market, the richest 1% and the corporations are making all the money. History shows that when the source of tension becomes too big, things can blow up. That's where we are at today."
Saxo Capital Markets sees three potential outcomes to the Eurozone debt crisis:
• Meeting of the Cardinals - 20%probability
• Extend-and-pretend Squared - 60% probability
• Doom-and-Gloom - 20% probability
Meeting of the Cardinals
The Meeting of the Cardinals (MoC) will be the only orderly solution dictated by rational and practical solutions, where some countries need to leave the Euro, whether permanently or for a tempory period.
"Here, the guinea pig will most likely be Greece. This will force Club Med to the table and make them accept further loss of sovereignty on fiscal and monetary policy, most likely in a German model where the European Court of Justice becomes the highest-ranking authority.
"The MoC scenario will likely lead to a short-term negative market reaction and a deep one-to-three year recession. However, this could also trigger the final phase of the three-phase crisis model: Mandate for Change. Inside the mandate for change there is a V-shaped recovery when reforms are initiated from the low point. For investors, the MoC is the best solution as it will lead to several years of prosperity amid better debt-to-equity, more realistic future expectations, and a public sector under control."
According to Jakobsen, the more likely scenario, however, is that Eurozone policy markets will continue to use delay tactics.
"The extend-and-pretend forever solution is about buying time - more of the same patch work solutions, slowly forcing Europe towards fiscal consolidation, not changing the Maastricht Treaty but the European Central Bank (ECB) charter to allow it to be lender-of-last-resort. This is the final phase of 'Maximum Intervention' - bigger and bigger direct support on liquidity and no impact on the solvency. This outcome is a vicious circle as every time the major central banks start the printing press, people's purchasing power diminishes." explains Jakobsen.
Under this scenario there are no good solutions to this crisis. Markets would re-test their 2009 lows and there will be a deep rooted discontentment with politics and the banking system, which could lead to social unrest and worse.
Steen Jakobsen concludes:
"The magnitude of this debt crisis is far larger than the market realises. The idea that it's merely a question of Germany paying is not only naïve, but also impossible. They cannot and they should not pay - and nor is the ECB the only solution to this debt crisis. There is only one solution: the system must fail and both the Euro and the Eurozone need to be redefined."
"The Euro in crisis" is the third part of Saxo's e-book, #FXdebates - Trading Insights from our Top Analysts, which focuses on trends in currency movements and pairings, the challenges affecting FX traders and advice on key trading strategies. The other articles in the #FXdebates series will focus on:
- The US Dollar (published)
- Yuan Diplomacy (published)
- Gold - Just another currency?
- Currency Wars: Battle Of The Weakest
The #FXdebates series of articles will be published over the next three months, leading the way to an event in February 2012 in collaboration with Bloomberg LINK.
For more information please see: http://uk.saxomarkets.com/fxdebates
Follow the debates via twitter: https://twitter.com/SaxoMarketsUK
About Saxo Capital Markets
Saxo Capital Markets UK Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group, an international financial services group specialising in trading and investment across global financial markets. Saxo Bank has operated in the UK since March 2006, initially as a branch of Saxo Bank A/S and since 1 January, 2012 as Saxo Capital Markets UK Limited.
Saxo Capital Markets UK offers private investors online trading and investment in FX, CFDs, ETFs, Stocks, Futures, Options and other derivatives, and online wealth management for Funds, Shares, ETFs, Certificates and Bonds. Saxo Capital Markets UK also offers online trading services to a broad institutional client base including Hedge Funds, Introducing Brokers and Money Managers through our award-winning trading platform SaxoTrader, SaxoWebTrader and SaxoMobileTrader and Saxo's B2B/API services.
Additionally a large base of Banks, Brokers, Asset and Money managers, utilise our award winning white label solutions, in order to provide their clients with access to all or some of our trading platforms and associated liquidity.
Find out more about FX Trading opportunities with Saxo Capital Markets.
Uriel Alvarado Cancino, Chief Public Relations and Marketing Officer, Saxo Capital Markets UK
+44(0)207-151-2026, [email protected]
Nicholle De Beer, Public Relations and Marketing Manager, Saxo Capital Markets UK
+44(0)207-151-2024, [email protected]
+44(0)20-7360-4900, [email protected]
Increasing IoT connectivity is forcing enterprises to find elegant solutions to organize and visualize all incoming data from these connected devices with re-configurable dashboard widgets to effectively allow rapid decision-making for everything from immediate actions in tactical situations to strategic analysis and reporting. In his session at 18th Cloud Expo, Shikhir Singh, Senior Developer Relations Manager at Sencha, will discuss how to create HTML5 dashboards that interact with IoT devic...
May. 3, 2016 10:30 AM EDT Reads: 1,168
The IoTs will challenge the status quo of how IT and development organizations operate. Or will it? Certainly the fog layer of IoT requires special insights about data ontology, security and transactional integrity. But the developmental challenges are the same: People, Process and Platform. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Craig Sproule, CEO of Metavine, will demonstrate how to move beyond today's coding paradigm and share the must-have mindsets for removing complexity from the development proc...
May. 3, 2016 10:30 AM EDT Reads: 520
SYS-CON Events announced today that Ericsson has been named “Gold Sponsor” of SYS-CON's @ThingsExpo, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York, New York. Ericsson is a world leader in the rapidly changing environment of communications technology – providing equipment, software and services to enable transformation through mobility. Some 40 percent of global mobile traffic runs through networks we have supplied. More than 1 billion subscribers around the world re...
May. 3, 2016 10:15 AM EDT Reads: 1,167
SYS-CON Events announced today that Peak 10, Inc., a national IT infrastructure and cloud services provider, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 18th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Peak 10 provides reliable, tailored data center and network services, cloud and managed services. Its solutions are designed to scale and adapt to customers’ changing business needs, enabling them to lower costs, improve performance and focus inter...
May. 3, 2016 10:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,328
The increasing popularity of the Internet of Things necessitates that our physical and cognitive relationship with wearable technology will change rapidly in the near future. This advent means logging has become a thing of the past. Before, it was on us to track our own data, but now that data is automatically available. What does this mean for mHealth and the "connected" body? In her session at @ThingsExpo, Lisa Calkins, CEO and co-founder of Amadeus Consulting, will discuss the impact of wea...
May. 3, 2016 10:00 AM EDT Reads: 834
SYS-CON Events announced today that SoftLayer, an IBM Company, has been named “Gold Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 18th Cloud Expo, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York, New York. SoftLayer, an IBM Company, provides cloud infrastructure as a service from a growing number of data centers and network points of presence around the world. SoftLayer’s customers range from Web startups to global enterprises.
May. 3, 2016 09:45 AM EDT Reads: 1,100
So, you bought into the current machine learning craze and went on to collect millions/billions of records from this promising new data source. Now, what do you do with them? Too often, the abundance of data quickly turns into an abundance of problems. How do you extract that "magic essence" from your data without falling into the common pitfalls? In her session at @ThingsExpo, Natalia Ponomareva, Software Engineer at Google, will provide tips on how to be successful in large scale machine lear...
May. 3, 2016 09:45 AM EDT Reads: 1,401
SYS-CON Events announced today that Enzu, a leading provider of cloud hosting solutions, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 18th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Enzu’s mission is to be the leading provider of enterprise cloud solutions worldwide. Enzu enables online businesses to use its IT infrastructure to their competitive advantage. By offering a suite of proven hosting and management services, Enzu wants companies to foc...
May. 3, 2016 09:15 AM EDT Reads: 1,146
There is an ever-growing explosion of new devices that are connected to the Internet using “cloud” solutions. This rapid growth is creating a massive new demand for efficient access to data. And it’s not just about connecting to that data anymore. This new demand is bringing new issues and challenges and it is important for companies to scale for the coming growth. And with that scaling comes the need for greater security, gathering and data analysis, storage, connectivity and, of course, the...
May. 3, 2016 09:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,012
See storage differently! Storage performance problems have only gotten worse and harder to solve as applications have become largely virtualized and moved to a cloud-based infrastructure. Storage performance in a virtualized environment is not just about IOPS, it is about how well that potential performance is guaranteed to individual VMs for these apps as the number of VMs keep going up real time. In his session at 18th Cloud Expo, Dhiraj Sehgal, in product and marketing at Tintri, will discu...
May. 3, 2016 09:00 AM EDT Reads: 945
In his session at @ThingsExpo, Chris Klein, CEO and Co-founder of Rachio, will discuss next generation communities that are using IoT to create more sustainable, intelligent communities. One example is Sterling Ranch, a 10,000 home development that – with the help of Siemens – will integrate IoT technology into the community to provide residents with energy and water savings as well as intelligent security. Everything from stop lights to sprinkler systems to building infrastructures will run ef...
May. 3, 2016 08:30 AM EDT Reads: 1,097
Artificial Intelligence has the potential to massively disrupt IoT. In his session at 18th Cloud Expo, AJ Abdallat, CEO of Beyond AI, will discuss what the five main drivers are in Artificial Intelligence that could shape the future of the Internet of Things. AJ Abdallat is CEO of Beyond AI. He has over 20 years of management experience in the fields of artificial intelligence, sensors, instruments, devices and software for telecommunications, life sciences, environmental monitoring, process...
May. 3, 2016 07:45 AM EDT Reads: 1,075
Internap Corporation has expanded its OpenStack-based bare-metal Infrastructure-as-a-Service offering, AgileSERVER 2.0, to its data centers in Amsterdam, Dallas and Santa Clara, Calif. Launched in 2015 out of Internap’s New York Metro data center in Secaucus, N.J., AgileSERVER 2.0 is now available in four locations globally, enabling enterprises and devops teams running mission-critical applications and big data workloads to build scale-out infrastructure environments that are higher performing ...
May. 3, 2016 07:15 AM EDT Reads: 1,372
You think you know what’s in your data. But do you? Most organizations are now aware of the business intelligence represented by their data. Data science stands to take this to a level you never thought of – literally. The techniques of data science, when used with the capabilities of Big Data technologies, can make connections you had not yet imagined, helping you discover new insights and ask new questions of your data. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Sarbjit Sarkaria, data science team lead ...
May. 3, 2016 07:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,059
Much of the value of DevOps comes from a (renewed) focus on measurement, sharing, and continuous feedback loops. In increasingly complex DevOps workflows and environments, and especially in larger, regulated, or more crystallized organizations, these core concepts become even more critical. In his session at @DevOpsSummit at 18th Cloud Expo, Andi Mann, Chief Technology Advocate at Splunk, will show how, by focusing on 'metrics that matter,' you can provide objective, transparent, and meaningfu...
May. 3, 2016 06:45 AM EDT Reads: 832