Welcome!

News Feed Item

India Predicted to be Fastest Growing Trade Market Till 2020 – HSBC Global Trade Forecast

MUMBAI, December 4, 2012 /PRNewswire/ --

Emerging Markets to Drive Global Trade Rebound

The HSBC Trade Forecast highlights India's critical role in world trade growth over the entire period till 2030. As per the Forecast, India represents the fastest growing import or export partner (or both) between 2013-15 or 2016-2020 for 23 markets. India's trade growth can be linked to its growing consumer wealth and emerging middle class; investment in infrastructure development; the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI); its diverse range of exports and a move to produce goods higher up the value chain, and its developing role as a supply chain hub for Asia.

'Dual speed' growth driven by South-South trade

The HSBC Trade Forecast is outlining a dual speed trade rebound as South-South corridors become more established, driving growth to 2015. before being rejoined by the developed world in the later part of the decade. 

According to the HSBC Trade Forecast, powerhouses India and China will be joined by emerging trading nations including Vietnam, Indonesia, Egypt, Turkey, Mexico and Poland to record significant trade growth in the next three years. As these economies industrialise, trade in higher value goods will increase, reflecting the greater maturity of these faster-growing economies with large populations and rapidly expanding middle-class consumer markets.

By 2020, HSBC expects that forward-thinking companies worldwide will have exploited multiple trade corridors and partnerships, created effective networked supply chains, and tightened efficiency in their operations as a result. This trend continues through 2021-30, contributing to a stabilising of trade growth which also reflects the growing maturity of emerging markets.

Key market and trade corridor trends from the HSBC Trade Forecast:

  • India tops the tables for all 23 markets surveyed as either their fastest import or export growth partner out to 2020.
  • Bilateral trade between China and India is set to increase significantly. India will be the fastest expanding market for Chinese products, with export growth averaging 20% a year during 2013-15 and 17% a year during 2016-20. Meanwhile, India exports to China are set to grow 23% between 2013-15 and 19% in 2016-20.
  • South south trade continues to show up as a trend. Brazil's fastest growing trade partners are India, Vietnam and China and Mexico's imports from India and China will grow 13.9% and 13.4% respectively between 2016 - 2020.
  • Indonesia exports to the rest of Asia (ex-Japan) are expected to grow at a solid pace of close to 10% a year over the period 2021-30. The fastest growing trade routes will be to India and China over the medium term (2013-2015), led by their insatiable demand for commodities.
  • Singapore's exports to Asia (ex-Japan) are forecast to rise by a fairly robust 7% a year on average during 2021-30. But the fastest growing trade routes will be with China, India and Vietnam over this period.
  • Bangladesh is forecast to develop its role linking 'emerging Asia', driven by trade growth with India throughout the period. Bangladesh's trade is expected to increase 19% between 2013-2015 and 14% between 2016 -2020.
  • Malaysia is forecast to see strong growth to Latin America in the years to 2020, at approximately 9% in the period 2016-20, underpinned by a greater sophistication in the products imported by the continent, particularly in electronic goods. Malaysia's exports to Brazil are predicted to grow 14% annualised over the same period.
  • Vietnam is expected to record double digit annualised trade growth throughout the forecast period 2012-30. China will have overtaken the US as Vietnam's largest export partner by 2030 but the US, Japan and Korea will remain key sources of demand for Vietnam.
  • Australia's main export markets are in Asia, and this will continue. Australia's exports to Asia (ex-Japan) are forecast to grow by 6% a year in 2013-15.
  • Hong Kong's total exports are forecast to double from 4.8% in 2012 to 11.4% annually throughout 2013-2015. Although China will remain Hong Kong's most important trading partner, other developing East Asian nations will become increasingly important, with exports to Vietnam set to grow by 8% a year in the decade to 2030.

HSBC Trade Confidence Index

With a score of 135, India is the most confident country according to the HSBC Trade Confidence Index. Optimism has improved in the last six months with 71% of importers and exporters surveyed expecting trade volumes to increase and another 24% anticipating business to remain at current levels. Their global outlook is more positive than other countries in the region as well with 61% of Indian traders expecting to see growth.

At the same time, however, Indian sellers are not overly confident in their overseas business partners as 43% foresee an increase in defaults. This is double what it was just six months ago. To minimise risk exposure, suppliers intend to use trade finance from banks, export credit insurance and other financial instruments. In fact, 65% of Indian businesses say they will need increased levels of trade financing in the coming months and will look to their banks first for help. Indian importers' confidence in the ability of their overseas suppliers to honour agreements is also slipping. Twelve months ago only 13% expected an increase in non-delivery while 43% do today.

Sandeep Uppal, Managing Director and Head, Commercial Banking, HSBC India said: "Given an expected pick-up in growth in India and a relatively stable global economy in the coming years, exports to all regions are expected to grow fairly robustly, helped by India's wide range of export products. These increasingly will move away from traditional goods to higher value goods and hi-tech products as India steadily develops its technology as well as manufacturing base."

Notes to Editors:

About the HSBC Trade Forecast - Modelled by Oxford Economics

Oxford Economics has tailored a unique service for HSBC which forecasts bilateral trade for total exports/imports of goods, based on HSBC's own analysis and forecasts of the world economy to generate a full bilateral set of trade flows for total imports and exports of goods, and balances between 180 pairs of countries.

Oxford Economics produces a global report for HSBC, plus regional reports and country specific reports on the following 23 countries: Hong Kong, China, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Singapore, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Canada, USA, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, UK, France, Turkey, Germany, Poland, Ireland, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.

Oxford Economics employs a global modelling framework that ensures full consistency between all economies, in part driven by trade linkages. The forecasts take into account factors such as the rate of demand growth in the destination market and the exporter's competitiveness. Exports, imports and trade balances are identified, with both historical estimates and forecasts for the periods 2013-15, 2016-20 and 2021-30.

Oxford Economics - formerly Oxford Economic Forecasting - was founded in 1981 to provide independent forecasting and analysis tailored to the needs of economists and planners in government and business. It is now one of the world's leading providers of economic analysis, advice and models, with over 500 clients. Oxford Economics commands a high degree of professional and technical expertise, both in its own staff of over 70 professionals based in Oxford, London, Belfast, Paris, the UAE, Singapore, Philadelphia and New York, and through its close links with Oxford University and a range of partner institutions in Europe and the US.

Trade Confidence Index

The HSBC Trade Confidence Index covers a total of 20 markets and is the largest trade confidence survey globally. The current survey comprises six-month views of 5,800 exporters, importers and traders from small and mid-market enterprises on: trade volume; buyer and supplier risks; the need for trade finance; access to trade finance; and the impact of foreign exchange on their businesses.

HSBC in India
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited in India offers a full range of banking and financial services to over 1 million customers through its 50 branches and over 140 ATMs across 29 cities.

HSBC is one of India's leading financial services groups, with over 30,000 employees in its banking, investment banking and capital markets, asset management, insurance broking, insurance, software development and global resourcing operations in the country. It is a leading custodian in India. Nearly 6% of India's exports and imports pass through HSBC India's banking channels. The asset management business in India is one of the leading players in the industry. The Bank is at the forefront in arranging deals for Indian companies investing overseas and foreign investments into the country. It has a fully enabled and established insurance advisory of international standards. It is one of the leading players in domestic and export factoring, and one of the leading banks for an increasing number of SMEs. With its extensive reach across Asia, the Americas and Europe, HSBC has the capacity to offer complete banking and financial solutions to India's burgeoning economy. In 2008, it acquired a majority stake in IL&FS Investsmart (now renamed HSBC InvestDirect) that has enabled it to offer retail brokerage services to its customer across a wider geography. It has also formed a joint venture life insurance company with Canara Bank and Oriental Bank of Commerce that is among the Top ten private life insurers in the country today.

HSBC's network of branches is located at Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Chandigarh, Chennai, Coimbatore, Gurgaon, Guwahati, Hyderabad, Indore, Jaipur, Jodhpur, Kochi, Kolkata, Ludhiana, Lucknow, Mumbai, Mysore, Nagpur, Noida, New Delhi, Nasik, Patna, Pune, Raipur, Surat, Trivandrum, Thane, Vadodara and Visakhapatnam.

HSBC Holdings plc
HSBC Holdings plc, the parent company of the HSBC Group, is headquartered in London. The Group serves customers worldwide from around 6,900 offices in over 80 countries and territories in Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, North and Latin America, and the Middle East and North Africa. With assets of US$2,652bn at 30 June 2012, the HSBC Group is one of the world's largest banking and financial services organisations.

Primary Media Contact: Sejal Shah, [email protected], 91-22-22681344

More Stories By PR Newswire

Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Latest Stories
Aspose.Total for .NET is the most complete package of all file format APIs for .NET as offered by Aspose. It empowers developers to create, edit, render, print and convert between a wide range of popular document formats within any .NET, C#, ASP.NET and VB.NET applications. Aspose compiles all .NET APIs on a daily basis to ensure that it contains the most up to date versions of each of Aspose .NET APIs. If a new .NET API or a new version of existing APIs is released during the subscription peri...
Organizations planning enterprise data center consolidation and modernization projects are faced with a challenging, costly reality. Requirements to deploy modern, cloud-native applications simultaneously with traditional client/server applications are almost impossible to achieve with hardware-centric enterprise infrastructure. Compute and network infrastructure are fast moving down a software-defined path, but storage has been a laggard. Until now.
"My role is working with customers, helping them go through this digital transformation. I spend a lot of time talking to banks, big industries, manufacturers working through how they are integrating and transforming their IT platforms and moving them forward," explained William Morrish, General Manager Product Sales at Interoute, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 18th Cloud Expo, held June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY.
To leverage Continuous Delivery, enterprises must consider impacts that span functional silos, as well as applications that touch older, slower moving components. Managing the many dependencies can cause slowdowns. See how to achieve continuous delivery in the enterprise.
You think you know what’s in your data. But do you? Most organizations are now aware of the business intelligence represented by their data. Data science stands to take this to a level you never thought of – literally. The techniques of data science, when used with the capabilities of Big Data technologies, can make connections you had not yet imagined, helping you discover new insights and ask new questions of your data. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Sarbjit Sarkaria, data science team lead ...
SYS-CON Events announced today the Kubernetes and Google Container Engine Workshop, being held November 3, 2016, in conjunction with @DevOpsSummit at 19th Cloud Expo at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. This workshop led by Sebastian Scheele introduces participants to Kubernetes and Google Container Engine (GKE). Through a combination of instructor-led presentations, demonstrations, and hands-on labs, students learn the key concepts and practices for deploying and maintainin...
Security, data privacy, reliability, and regulatory compliance are critical factors when evaluating whether to move business applications from in-house, client-hosted environments to a cloud platform. Quality assurance plays a vital role in ensuring that the appropriate level of risk assessment, verification, and validation takes place to ensure business continuity during the migration to a new cloud platform.
Extracting business value from Internet of Things (IoT) data doesn’t happen overnight. There are several requirements that must be satisfied, including IoT device enablement, data analysis, real-time detection of complex events and automated orchestration of actions. Unfortunately, too many companies fall short in achieving their business goals by implementing incomplete solutions or not focusing on tangible use cases. In his general session at @ThingsExpo, Dave McCarthy, Director of Products...
Security, data privacy, reliability and regulatory compliance are critical factors when evaluating whether to move business applications from in-house client hosted environments to a cloud platform. In her session at 18th Cloud Expo, Vandana Viswanathan, Associate Director at Cognizant, In this session, will provide an orientation to the five stages required to implement a cloud hosted solution validation strategy.
WebRTC is bringing significant change to the communications landscape that will bridge the worlds of web and telephony, making the Internet the new standard for communications. Cloud9 took the road less traveled and used WebRTC to create a downloadable enterprise-grade communications platform that is changing the communication dynamic in the financial sector. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Leo Papadopoulos, CTO of Cloud9, discussed the importance of WebRTC and how it enables companies to focus...
Up until last year, enterprises that were looking into cloud services usually undertook a long-term pilot with one of the large cloud providers, running test and dev workloads in the cloud. With cloud’s transition to mainstream adoption in 2015, and with enterprises migrating more and more workloads into the cloud and in between public and private environments, the single-provider approach must be revisited. In his session at 18th Cloud Expo, Yoav Mor, multi-cloud solution evangelist at Cloudy...
UpGuard has become a member of the Center for Internet Security (CIS), and will continue to help businesses expand visibility into their cyber risk by providing hardening benchmarks to all customers. By incorporating these benchmarks, UpGuard's CSTAR solution builds on its lead in providing the most complete assessment of both internal and external cyber risk. CIS benchmarks are a widely accepted set of hardening guidelines that have been publicly available for years. Numerous solutions exist t...
A critical component of any IoT project is what to do with all the data being generated. This data needs to be captured, processed, structured, and stored in a way to facilitate different kinds of queries. Traditional data warehouse and analytical systems are mature technologies that can be used to handle certain kinds of queries, but they are not always well suited to many problems, particularly when there is a need for real-time insights.
Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE, Nasdaq: VZ) and Yahoo! Inc. (Nasdaq: YHOO) have entered into a definitive agreement under which Verizon will acquire Yahoo's operating business for approximately $4.83 billion in cash, subject to customary closing adjustments. Yahoo informs, connects and entertains a global audience of more than 1 billion monthly active users** -- including 600 million monthly active mobile users*** through its search, communications and digital content products. Yahoo also co...
"Software-defined storage is a big problem in this industry because so many people have different definitions as they see fit to use it," stated Peter McCallum, VP of Datacenter Solutions at FalconStor Software, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 18th Cloud Expo, held June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY.