|By PR Newswire||
|December 4, 2012 05:41 AM EST||
MUMBAI, December 4, 2012 /PRNewswire/ --
Emerging Markets to Drive Global Trade Rebound
The HSBC Trade Forecast highlights India's critical role in world trade growth over the entire period till 2030. As per the Forecast, India represents the fastest growing import or export partner (or both) between 2013-15 or 2016-2020 for 23 markets. India's trade growth can be linked to its growing consumer wealth and emerging middle class; investment in infrastructure development; the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI); its diverse range of exports and a move to produce goods higher up the value chain, and its developing role as a supply chain hub for Asia.
'Dual speed' growth driven by South-South trade
The HSBC Trade Forecast is outlining a dual speed trade rebound as South-South corridors become more established, driving growth to 2015. before being rejoined by the developed world in the later part of the decade.
According to the HSBC Trade Forecast, powerhouses India and China will be joined by emerging trading nations including Vietnam, Indonesia, Egypt, Turkey, Mexico and Poland to record significant trade growth in the next three years. As these economies industrialise, trade in higher value goods will increase, reflecting the greater maturity of these faster-growing economies with large populations and rapidly expanding middle-class consumer markets.
By 2020, HSBC expects that forward-thinking companies worldwide will have exploited multiple trade corridors and partnerships, created effective networked supply chains, and tightened efficiency in their operations as a result. This trend continues through 2021-30, contributing to a stabilising of trade growth which also reflects the growing maturity of emerging markets.
Key market and trade corridor trends from the HSBC Trade Forecast:
- India tops the tables for all 23 markets surveyed as either their fastest import or export growth partner out to 2020.
- Bilateral trade between China and India is set to increase significantly. India will be the fastest expanding market for Chinese products, with export growth averaging 20% a year during 2013-15 and 17% a year during 2016-20. Meanwhile, India exports to China are set to grow 23% between 2013-15 and 19% in 2016-20.
- South south trade continues to show up as a trend. Brazil's fastest growing trade partners are India, Vietnam and China and Mexico's imports from India and China will grow 13.9% and 13.4% respectively between 2016 - 2020.
- Indonesia exports to the rest of Asia (ex-Japan) are expected to grow at a solid pace of close to 10% a year over the period 2021-30. The fastest growing trade routes will be to India and China over the medium term (2013-2015), led by their insatiable demand for commodities.
- Singapore's exports to Asia (ex-Japan) are forecast to rise by a fairly robust 7% a year on average during 2021-30. But the fastest growing trade routes will be with China, India and Vietnam over this period.
- Bangladesh is forecast to develop its role linking 'emerging Asia', driven by trade growth with India throughout the period. Bangladesh's trade is expected to increase 19% between 2013-2015 and 14% between 2016 -2020.
- Malaysia is forecast to see strong growth to Latin America in the years to 2020, at approximately 9% in the period 2016-20, underpinned by a greater sophistication in the products imported by the continent, particularly in electronic goods. Malaysia's exports to Brazil are predicted to grow 14% annualised over the same period.
- Vietnam is expected to record double digit annualised trade growth throughout the forecast period 2012-30. China will have overtaken the US as Vietnam's largest export partner by 2030 but the US, Japan and Korea will remain key sources of demand for Vietnam.
- Australia's main export markets are in Asia, and this will continue. Australia's exports to Asia (ex-Japan) are forecast to grow by 6% a year in 2013-15.
- Hong Kong's total exports are forecast to double from 4.8% in 2012 to 11.4% annually throughout 2013-2015. Although China will remain Hong Kong's most important trading partner, other developing East Asian nations will become increasingly important, with exports to Vietnam set to grow by 8% a year in the decade to 2030.
HSBC Trade Confidence Index
With a score of 135, India is the most confident country according to the HSBC Trade Confidence Index. Optimism has improved in the last six months with 71% of importers and exporters surveyed expecting trade volumes to increase and another 24% anticipating business to remain at current levels. Their global outlook is more positive than other countries in the region as well with 61% of Indian traders expecting to see growth.
At the same time, however, Indian sellers are not overly confident in their overseas business partners as 43% foresee an increase in defaults. This is double what it was just six months ago. To minimise risk exposure, suppliers intend to use trade finance from banks, export credit insurance and other financial instruments. In fact, 65% of Indian businesses say they will need increased levels of trade financing in the coming months and will look to their banks first for help. Indian importers' confidence in the ability of their overseas suppliers to honour agreements is also slipping. Twelve months ago only 13% expected an increase in non-delivery while 43% do today.
Sandeep Uppal, Managing Director and Head, Commercial Banking, HSBC India said: "Given an expected pick-up in growth in India and a relatively stable global economy in the coming years, exports to all regions are expected to grow fairly robustly, helped by India's wide range of export products. These increasingly will move away from traditional goods to higher value goods and hi-tech products as India steadily develops its technology as well as manufacturing base."
Notes to Editors:
About the HSBC Trade Forecast - Modelled by Oxford Economics
Oxford Economics has tailored a unique service for HSBC which forecasts bilateral trade for total exports/imports of goods, based on HSBC's own analysis and forecasts of the world economy to generate a full bilateral set of trade flows for total imports and exports of goods, and balances between 180 pairs of countries.
Oxford Economics produces a global report for HSBC, plus regional reports and country specific reports on the following 23 countries: Hong Kong, China, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Singapore, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Canada, USA, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, UK, France, Turkey, Germany, Poland, Ireland, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.
Oxford Economics employs a global modelling framework that ensures full consistency between all economies, in part driven by trade linkages. The forecasts take into account factors such as the rate of demand growth in the destination market and the exporter's competitiveness. Exports, imports and trade balances are identified, with both historical estimates and forecasts for the periods 2013-15, 2016-20 and 2021-30.
Oxford Economics - formerly Oxford Economic Forecasting - was founded in 1981 to provide independent forecasting and analysis tailored to the needs of economists and planners in government and business. It is now one of the world's leading providers of economic analysis, advice and models, with over 500 clients. Oxford Economics commands a high degree of professional and technical expertise, both in its own staff of over 70 professionals based in Oxford, London, Belfast, Paris, the UAE, Singapore, Philadelphia and New York, and through its close links with Oxford University and a range of partner institutions in Europe and the US.
Trade Confidence Index
The HSBC Trade Confidence Index covers a total of 20 markets and is the largest trade confidence survey globally. The current survey comprises six-month views of 5,800 exporters, importers and traders from small and mid-market enterprises on: trade volume; buyer and supplier risks; the need for trade finance; access to trade finance; and the impact of foreign exchange on their businesses.
HSBC in India
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited in India offers a full range of banking and financial services to over 1 million customers through its 50 branches and over 140 ATMs across 29 cities.
HSBC is one of India's leading financial services groups, with over 30,000 employees in its banking, investment banking and capital markets, asset management, insurance broking, insurance, software development and global resourcing operations in the country. It is a leading custodian in India. Nearly 6% of India's exports and imports pass through HSBC India's banking channels. The asset management business in India is one of the leading players in the industry. The Bank is at the forefront in arranging deals for Indian companies investing overseas and foreign investments into the country. It has a fully enabled and established insurance advisory of international standards. It is one of the leading players in domestic and export factoring, and one of the leading banks for an increasing number of SMEs. With its extensive reach across Asia, the Americas and Europe, HSBC has the capacity to offer complete banking and financial solutions to India's burgeoning economy. In 2008, it acquired a majority stake in IL&FS Investsmart (now renamed HSBC InvestDirect) that has enabled it to offer retail brokerage services to its customer across a wider geography. It has also formed a joint venture life insurance company with Canara Bank and Oriental Bank of Commerce that is among the Top ten private life insurers in the country today.
HSBC's network of branches is located at Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Chandigarh, Chennai, Coimbatore, Gurgaon, Guwahati, Hyderabad, Indore, Jaipur, Jodhpur, Kochi, Kolkata, Ludhiana, Lucknow, Mumbai, Mysore, Nagpur, Noida, New Delhi, Nasik, Patna, Pune, Raipur, Surat, Trivandrum, Thane, Vadodara and Visakhapatnam.
HSBC Holdings plc
HSBC Holdings plc, the parent company of the HSBC Group, is headquartered in London. The Group serves customers worldwide from around 6,900 offices in over 80 countries and territories in Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, North and Latin America, and the Middle East and North Africa. With assets of US$2,652bn at 30 June 2012, the HSBC Group is one of the world's largest banking and financial services organisations.
Primary Media Contact: Sejal Shah, [email protected], 91-22-22681344
Is your aging software platform suffering from technical debt while the market changes and demands new solutions at a faster clip? It’s a bold move, but you might consider walking away from your core platform and starting fresh. ReadyTalk did exactly that. In his General Session at 19th Cloud Expo, Michael Chambliss, Head of Engineering at ReadyTalk, will discuss why and how ReadyTalk diverted from healthy revenue and over a decade of audio conferencing product development to start an innovati...
Sep. 27, 2016 08:30 PM EDT Reads: 2,021
Fifty billion connected devices and still no winning protocols standards. HTTP, WebSockets, MQTT, and CoAP seem to be leading in the IoT protocol race at the moment but many more protocols are getting introduced on a regular basis. Each protocol has its pros and cons depending on the nature of the communications. Does there really need to be only one protocol to rule them all? Of course not. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Chris Matthieu, co-founder and CTO of Octoblu, walk you through how Oct...
Sep. 27, 2016 08:15 PM EDT Reads: 2,217
The Jevons Paradox suggests that when technological advances increase efficiency of a resource, it results in an overall increase in consumption. Writing on the increased use of coal as a result of technological improvements, 19th-century economist William Stanley Jevons found that these improvements led to the development of new ways to utilize coal. In his session at 19th Cloud Expo, Mark Thiele, Chief Strategy Officer for Apcera, will compare the Jevons Paradox to modern-day enterprise IT, e...
Sep. 27, 2016 07:30 PM EDT Reads: 2,139
Complete Internet of Things (IoT) embedded device security is not just about the device but involves the entire product’s identity, data and control integrity, and services traversing the cloud. A device can no longer be looked at as an island; it is a part of a system. In fact, given the cross-domain interactions enabled by IoT it could be a part of many systems. Also, depending on where the device is deployed, for example, in the office building versus a factory floor or oil field, security ha...
Sep. 27, 2016 07:15 PM EDT Reads: 426
SYS-CON Events announced today that Bsquare has been named “Silver Sponsor” of SYS-CON's @ThingsExpo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. For more than two decades, Bsquare has helped its customers extract business value from a broad array of physical assets by making them intelligent, connecting them, and using the data they generate to optimize business processes.
Sep. 27, 2016 07:00 PM EDT Reads: 2,849
Whether they’re located in a public, private, or hybrid cloud environment, cloud technologies are constantly evolving. While the innovation is exciting, the end mission of delivering business value and rapidly producing incremental product features is paramount. In his session at @DevOpsSummit at 19th Cloud Expo, Kiran Chitturi, CTO Architect at Sungard AS, will discuss DevOps culture, its evolution of frameworks and technologies, and how it is achieving maturity. He will also cover various st...
Sep. 27, 2016 06:45 PM EDT Reads: 1,810
Identity is in everything and customers are looking to their providers to ensure the security of their identities, transactions and data. With the increased reliance on cloud-based services, service providers must build security and trust into their offerings, adding value to customers and improving the user experience. Making identity, security and privacy easy for customers provides a unique advantage over the competition.
Sep. 27, 2016 06:30 PM EDT Reads: 3,562
There are several IoTs: the Industrial Internet, Consumer Wearables, Wearables and Healthcare, Supply Chains, and the movement toward Smart Grids, Cities, Regions, and Nations. There are competing communications standards every step of the way, a bewildering array of sensors and devices, and an entire world of competing data analytics platforms. To some this appears to be chaos. In this power panel at @ThingsExpo, moderated by Conference Chair Roger Strukhoff, Bradley Holt, Developer Advocate a...
Sep. 27, 2016 06:30 PM EDT Reads: 2,192
SYS-CON Events announced today that Niagara Networks will exhibit at the 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Niagara Networks offers the highest port-density systems, and the most complete Next-Generation Network Visibility systems including Network Packet Brokers, Bypass Switches, and Network TAPs.
Sep. 27, 2016 06:15 PM EDT Reads: 381
SYS-CON Events announced today that Secure Channels will exhibit at the 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. The bedrock of Secure Channels Technology is a uniquely modified and enhanced process based on superencipherment. Superencipherment is the process of encrypting an already encrypted message one or more times, either using the same or a different algorithm.
Sep. 27, 2016 06:00 PM EDT Reads: 1,696
If you’re responsible for an application that depends on the data or functionality of various IoT endpoints – either sensors or devices – your brand reputation depends on the security, reliability, and compliance of its many integrated parts. If your application fails to deliver the expected business results, your customers and partners won't care if that failure stems from the code you developed or from a component that you integrated. What can you do to ensure that the endpoints work as expect...
Sep. 27, 2016 05:45 PM EDT Reads: 1,658
So, you bought into the current machine learning craze and went on to collect millions/billions of records from this promising new data source. Now, what do you do with them? Too often, the abundance of data quickly turns into an abundance of problems. How do you extract that "magic essence" from your data without falling into the common pitfalls? In her session at @ThingsExpo, Natalia Ponomareva, Software Engineer at Google, provided tips on how to be successful in large scale machine learning...
Sep. 27, 2016 05:30 PM EDT Reads: 2,013
In his general session at 18th Cloud Expo, Lee Atchison, Principal Cloud Architect and Advocate at New Relic, discussed cloud as a ‘better data center’ and how it adds new capacity (faster) and improves application availability (redundancy). The cloud is a ‘Dynamic Tool for Dynamic Apps’ and resource allocation is an integral part of your application architecture, so use only the resources you need and allocate /de-allocate resources on the fly.
Sep. 27, 2016 05:15 PM EDT Reads: 2,765
If you had a chance to enter on the ground level of the largest e-commerce market in the world – would you? China is the world’s most populated country with the second largest economy and the world’s fastest growing market. It is estimated that by 2018 the Chinese market will be reaching over $30 billion in gaming revenue alone. Admittedly for a foreign company, doing business in China can be challenging. Often changing laws, administrative regulations and the often inscrutable Chinese Interne...
Sep. 27, 2016 05:15 PM EDT Reads: 301
Enterprise IT has been in the era of Hybrid Cloud for some time now. But it seems most conversations about Hybrid are focused on integrating AWS, Microsoft Azure, or Google ECM into existing on-premises systems. Where is all the Private Cloud? What do technology providers need to do to make their offerings more compelling? How should enterprise IT executives and buyers define their focus, needs, and roadmap, and communicate that clearly to the providers?
Sep. 27, 2016 05:00 PM EDT Reads: 1,596