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Emerging markets to more than double smart meter growth in 2013, $56bn market by 2022

WASHINGTON, Dec. 10, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The number of smart meter deployments across 35 emerging market countries in 2013 will be more than double the number of deployments in 2012, according to Northeast Group's annual Emerging Markets Smart Grid: Outlook 2013 study. With growth continuing throughout the decade, these countries will represent a smart metering – or advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) – market of $56 billion by 2022. The total number of electricity meters in these countries will grow to 546 million by 2022, with 27% already targeted by regulators to be "smart." The new study analyzes the smart meter and smart grid potential of 35 countries from Central/Eastern Europe, Eurasia, Latin America, Middle East/North Africa, South Africa and Southeast Asia.

"These 35 emerging market countries were active in deploying smart meters and associated smart grid infrastructure in 2012, with over 1.3 million AMI meters deployed. This activity does not even include the mega-markets of China and India, which are not covered in this forecast," said Northeast Group. "A number of emerging market utilities have already announced large projects for 2013, fueling our expectations that the number of smart meter deployments will more than double next year."

In recent years, smart grid activity has largely been focused in North America, Western Europe, and East Asia, primarily due to higher electricity demand profiles in these regions. But smart grid infrastructure offers emerging markets a diverse array of benefits as well, including improving reliability, reducing non-technical losses, and incorporating renewable sources of energy. As smart grid financing models and regulatory frameworks have improved, emerging market countries are catching up with their more developed peers.

"Regulatory development was somewhat mixed in 2012, but positive on the whole," continued Northeast Group. "In particular, emerging market countries are cooperating with more developed countries to establish interoperability standards for smart meters, helping reduce a considerable amount of risk from these investments. This will facilitate the entry of leading international vendors into the market, many of whom already have local partners and are established in these countries. In fact, ten leading international vendors accounted for over 90% of deployments across the 35 countries in 2012."

"One negative sign was that some emerging market countries backed away from previously announced deployment targets, but these targets are not out of reach if smart meter prices decline and financing improves. Utilities and governments are learning important lessons from widespread pilot projects, which should lead to clearer smart meter regulations over the next few years," added Northeast Group.

All 35 countries analyzed in the study are projected to begin smart grid deployments in the coming decade. In fact, 14 of the 35 countries are well positioned to begin large-scale smart grid deployments within the next 1–3 years. These include Brazil, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Mexico, Poland, Qatar, Romania, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, and the United Arab Emirates. Some of these countries are already in the early stages of large-scale rollouts.

Smart metering – or AMI – deployments will be the first step of smart grid activity in most of these countries, creating significant markets for the various AMI components across the 35 countries.  These components include meter hardware, communications, IT (meter data management and customer information systems), and professional services markets. Following AMI, there is strong potential for distribution automation, substation automation, wide area measurement and home energy management technologies, including distributed generation and electric vehicle supply equipment.

Northeast Group ranked the smart meter potential of each country based on the potential benefits, the regulatory framework in place, and the total market size. The study includes details on each of the 35 countries, including their industry structure, regulatory framework, business case indicators, existing smart grid activity and vendors. There are market forecasts for each of five regions covered, as well as a comparison of these forecasts to the China and India markets. Additionally, the study gives an overview of the leading smart meter hardware vendors in emerging markets, including market share data.

Emerging Markets Smart Grid: Outlook 2013 is 135 pages long and includes over 130 unique charts, tables and graphics. To order a copy of the study, please visit our website at: www.northeast-group.com or email Ben Gardner at: [email protected]

ABOUT: Northeast Group, LLC is a Washington, DC-based smart grid market intelligence firm. Our research is focused on the smart grid opportunity in emerging market countries.      

Key questions addressed in this study:

  • What smart grid activity took place in emerging markets in 2012 and what is expected for 2013?
  • Which countries were most active in developing smart grid-related policies and which countries took a step back?
  • Who were the leading international vendors in emerging markets in 2012?  What is their market share in emerging markets?  Who are the most important local vendors?
  • Which of these 35 countries have the potential to reap the most direct benefits from smart meter deployments?
  • How will regional bodies such as the EU, ASEAN, and GCC expedite deployments?
  • What other smart grid projects such as distribution automation, substation automation and home energy management are also evolving?

Table of Contents




i. Executive Summary

1

ii. Methodology

6

1. Introduction

9

2. Global overview

13

2.1 Smart meter potential in emerging markets

13

2.2 Deployments in 2012

17

2.3 Business case drivers

22

2.3 Regulatory drivers

25

3. Emerging markets smart meter market forecast

32

3.1 Deployment assumptions

32

3.2 Cost assumptions

32

3.3 Comparison to China and India

33

4. Vendor activity

34

4.1 Leading meter hardware vendors

34

4.2 Local and other metering vendors

37

5. Regional and country summaries

39

6. Central/Eastern Europe

43

6.1 Bulgaria

45

6.2 Czech Republic

47

6.3 Estonia

49

6.4 Hungary

51

6.5 Latvia

53

6.6 Lithuania

55

6.7 Poland

57

6.8 Romania

59

6.9 Slovakia

61

6.10 Slovenia

63

7. Eurasia

65

7.1 Russia

67

7.2 Ukraine

69

8. Latin America

71

8.1 Argentina

73

8.2 Brazil

75

8.3 Chile

77

8.4 Colombia

79

8.5 Ecuador

81

8.6 Mexico

83

8.7 Peru

85

9. Middle East/North Africa

87

9.1 Bahrain

89

9.2 Egypt

91

9.3 Jordan

93

9.4 Kuwait

95

9.5 Oman

97

9.6 Qatar

99

9.7 Saudi Arabia

101

9.8 United Arab Emirates

103

10. Southeast Asia

105

10.1 Indonesia

107

10.2 Malaysia

109

10.3 Philippines

111

10.4 Singapore

113

10.5 Thailand

115

10.6 Vietnam

117

11. Other regions

119

11.1 South Africa

121

11.2 Turkey

123

12. Conclusion

125

12.1 Next steps

125

12.2 List of abbreviations and acronyms

126





List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables




Emerging markets smart grid: key takeaways

4

Emerging markets smart meter potential

5

Figure 1.1: Smart grid value chain

9

Figure 1.2: Smart grid model highlighting focus in emerging markets

10

Figure 2.1: Emerging markets covered in this study

14

Figure 2.2: Emerging markets smart meter potential

16

Figure 2.3: Emerging markets added to this report

18

Figure 2.4: Biggest positive movers in smart meter potential

19

Figure 2.5: Biggest negative movers in smart meter potential

19

Table 2.1: Biggest shifts in regulatory framework score

20

Table 2.2: Biggest shifts in potential benefit score

20

Figure 2.6: Notable smart meter activity in 2012

21

Table 2.3: Major smart meter project announcements in emerging markets in 2012

22

Box 2.1: Theft reduction business case – the example of Brazil

23

Figure 2.7: Aggregate cost savings due to theft reduction in Brazil

23

Figure 2.8: Average electricity prices by region

24

Figure 2.9: Annual electricity demand growth (2012 – 2020)

24

Figure 2.10: Global distribution losses

24

Figure 2.11: Annual manufacturing business losses due to power outages

25

Figure 2.12: Smart meter targets in emerging markets

26

Table 2.4: Smart meter funding mechanisms

27

Table 2.5: Smart meter interoperability standards in Europe

28

Table 2.13: Hungary's smart meter deployment plan

28

Table 2.6: Infrastructure spending in emerging markets (2010 – 2030)

29

Figure 2.14: CO2 emissions targets in emerging markets

30

Figure 2.15: Renewable energy incentives in emerging markets

31

Table 2.7: Types of electric vehicle incentives

32

Box 2.2: Smart grid outreach in Brazil

33

Figure 3.1: Cumulative smart meter deployments in emerging markets (2012 – 2022)

34

Figure 3.2: 35 emerging market countries compared with China and India

35

Figure 4.1: Market share of leading vendors in 35 emerging markets

36

Figure 4.2: Leading vendor market share (not including Brazil)

37

Table 4.1: Leading international smart meter hardware vendors

38

Table 4.2: Additional hardware vendors active in emerging market smart meter projects

40

Figure 6.1: Smart meter potential in Central/Eastern Europe

43

Figure 7.1: Smart meter potential in Eurasia

65

Figure 8.1: Smart meter potential in Latin America

71

Figure 9.1: Smart meter potential in Middle East/North Africa

87

Figure 10.1: Smart meter potential in Southeast Asia

105

Figure 11.1: Smart meter potential in medium-large countries

119

Table 12.1: The next steps and necessary actions

125

In addition to the figures and tables shown above, each country summary includes the following:

Table: industry structure;
Table: regulatory framework;
Chart: regional electricity consumption per capita (kWh);
Chart: regional electricity prices (cents per kWh);
Chart: regional distribution losses (%).

Therefore, this study includes an additional 88 unique charts and tables in addition to those cited above. 

List of companies mentioned in this study:

  • ABB (Switzerland)
  • Aclara (US)
  • ADD (Moldova)
  • Advanced Electronics Co. (Saudi Arabia)
  • ADWEA (UAE)
  • AES (US)
  • Akwaror (Bulgaria)
  • Alstom (France)
  • Al-Wataniyah (Kuwait)
  • Ampla (Brazil)
  • Applied Meters (Slovakia)
  • Bogazici (Turkey)
  • BPL Global (US)
  • BYD (China)
  • CAS (Brazil)
  • Cason (Hungary)
  • Cemig (Brazil)
  • CEZ (Czech Republic)
  • CFE (Mexico)
  • Chilectra (Chile)
  • Chilquinta (Chile)
  • Cisco (US)
  • Citipower (South Africa)
  • CGE (Chile)
  • CNEL (Ecuador)
  • Codensa (Colombia)
  • Comintel (Malaysia)
  • Copel (Brazil)
  • CPFL (Brazil)
  • Current Technology (US)
  • Davao Light (Philippines)
  • DEWA (UAE)
  • DTEK (Ukraine)
  • Echelon (US)
  • Ecil Informatica (Brazil)
  • EDCO (Jordan)
  • Edelap (Argentina)
  • Edelsur (Peru)
  • Edenor (Argentina)
  • Edesur (Argentina)
  • EDF (France)
  • EEHC (Egypt)
  • Eesti Energia (Estonia)
  • EHC (Oman)
  • Electrica (Romania)
  • Electrica de Guayaquil (Ecuador)
  • Electro Sur (Peru)
  • Elektro (Slovenia)
  • Elektromed (Turkey)
  • Eletropaulo (Brazil)
  • ELO (Brazil)
  • Elster (Germany)
  • EMH (Germany)
  • Empresas Electricas (Ecuador)
  • Endesa (Spain)
  • ENEA (Poland)
  • ENEL (Italy)
  • Energa (Poland)
  • Enerjisa Baskent (Turkey)
  • Eneri (Mexico)
  • Enersis (Chile)
  • Enica (UK)
  • E.On (Germany)
  • EPM (Colombia)
  • Eskom (South Africa)
  • EVN (Austria)
  • EVN (Vietnam)
  • EWA (Bahrain)
  • Federal Grid Company (Russia)
  • FEWA (UAE)
  • GE (US)
  • HP (US)
  • Iberdrola (Spain)
  • IDECO (Jordan)
  • IDGC (Russia)
  • IES (Russia)
  • Intel (US)
  • Inter RAO UES (Russia)
  • Iskraemeco (Slovenia)
  • Itron (US)
  • JEPCO (Jordan)
  • Kahramma (Qatar)
  • Kamstrup (Denmark)
  • Landis+Gyr (Switzerland)
  • Larsen &Toubros (India)
  • Latvenergo (Latvia)
  • Lesto (Lithuania)
  • Light (Brazil)
  • Luz del Sur (Peru)
  • MEA (Thailand)
  • MEDC (Oman)
  • MERALCO (Philippines)
  • Mobiltel (Bulgaria)
  • Nansen (Brazil)
  • PCN (US)
  • PEA (Thailand)
  • Petra Solar (Jordan)
  • Petrofac (UK)
  • PGE (Poland)
  • PLN (Indonesia)
  • Power Meter Technics (South Africa)
  • PRE (Czech Republic)
  • PrimeStone (Colombia)
  • Rede Energia (Brazil)
  • Renault (France)
  • RWE (Germany)
  • SAESA (Chile)
  • SEB (Malaysia)
  • SEC (Saudi Arabia)
  • Sempra Energy (US)
  • Sensus (US)
  • SESB (Malaysia)
  • SEWA (UAE)
  • Siemens (Germany)
  • Silver Spring Networks (US)
  • Sigma Telas (Lithuania)
  • Singapore Power (Singapore)
  • SK Engineering (South Korea)
  • SSE (Slovakia)
  • ST Electronics (Singapore)
  • Tauron (Poland)
  • Technology Partners (UAE)
  • TEDAS (Turkey)
  • Telvent (Spain)
  • TNB (Malaysia)
  • Toroslar (Turkey)
  • Toshiba (Japan)
  • Trilliant (US)
  • Trina Solar (China)
  • Tropos Networks (US)
  • Vattenfall (Sweden)
  • VECO (Philippines)
  • Ventyx (Australia)
  • VKG (Estonia)
  • VSE (Slovakia)
  • ZSE (Slovakia)

 

SOURCE Northeast Group, LLC

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