Click here to close now.



Welcome!

News Feed Item

Saxo Bank 10 Outrageous Predictions for 2013

LONDON, December 18, 2012 /PRNewswire/ --

Saxo Bank, the online multi-asset trading and investment specialist, today releases its annual batch of ten Outrageous Predictions for 2013. This is Saxo Bank's annual exercise in rooting out relatively extreme market and political events for which the probability is perhaps low, if still vastly under-appreciated.

Among these predictions is that Germany will move toward accepting the mutualisation of Euro debt, which combined with other strains could cause the DAX to plunge by about a third from near multi-year highs to 5,000. Another is that gold will fall by around 500 dollars to USD 1,200 per ounce on faster US growth and a stronger US dollar and despite the overhang of Fed's easy monetary policy.

Other events Saxo Bank believes would have a significant impact should they come to pass include Spanish interest rates rising to 10% despite the ECB's OMT mechanism as Greece exits and social tensions rise, and the un-pegging of the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) from the USD and its re-pegging to the Chinese Renminbi as China attempts to take more control of its economic destiny away from the US and its central bank's policies.

Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist at Saxo Bank, comments:

"This year's Outrageous Predictions are once again a selection of mainly negative events, any of which can change the financial landscape and in some cases even the political status quo. Here at the end of 2012, we have extremely low volatility in all asset classes due to the lack of real price discovery from heavy handed manipulation by central banks. In such an environment, almost any move outside of two standard deviations is becoming 'outrageous'.

"These ten predictions are not Saxo Bank's official forecasts for 2013. They could, however, prove far more relevant for investors because of the huge impact if any one of them sees the light of day in the New Year. Before trading or investing, investors must know the worst case scenario - capital preservation is a must and portfolios need to be able to weather a perfect storm, or for that matter any storm."

To see more please go to the Outrageous Predictions website: http://www.tradingfloor.com/topics/saxo-outrageous-predictions

To follow Outrageous Predictions or make your own, join the conversation on Twitter by using the hashtag #SaxoOP and don't forget to follow Trading Floor and Saxo Bank on @tradingfloorcom and @SaxoBank

Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions 2013

 

  1. DAX plunges 33 percent to 5000


China's economic slowdown continues, putting a halt to Germany's industrial expansion. This causes large price declines in industrial stocks and low consumer confidence. Approval ratings for Angela Merkel plunge ahead of the German election, and in a weak economy combined with political uncertainty as Germany moves closer to signing up for further EU debt mutualisation, the DAX stock market index declines to 5,000, down 33 percent for the year.

 

  2. Nationalisation of major Japanese electronics companies


Japan's electronics industry, once the glory of the country, enters a terminal phase after being outmatched by South Korea. With combined annual losses of USD 30 billion for Sharp, Panasonic and Sony alone, creditworthiness deteriorates greatly and the Japanese government nationalises key industry players, similar to the US government's bailout of its automobile industry.

 

  3. Soybeans to rise by 50 percent


Bad weather during 2012, which wreaked havoc on global crop production and saw a nine-year low in US soybean ending stocks, leaves the price of new crop soybeans exposed to any new weather disruptions, either in the US, South America or in China. Increased demand for biofuel will also play its part in exposing the price to spikes, and speculators will be ready to re-enter the market, pushing the price higher by as much as 50 percent. Food security becomes a buzz phrase

 

  4. Gold corrects to USD 1,200 per ounce


The strength of the US economic recovery in 2013 surprises the market and especially financial investors in gold. This and a lack of pick-up in physical demand for gold from China and India, both struggling with weak growth and rising unemployment, trigger a major round of gold liquidation. Gold slumps to USD 1,200 before central banks eventually step in to take advantage of lower prices.

 

  5. WTI crude hits USD 50


US energy production continues to rise, primarily through advanced production techniques such as in the shale oil sector. US production of crude oil rises strongly, and with domestic inventory levels already at a 30-year high and export options limited, WTI benchmark crude oil prices come under renewed selling pressure and slump towards USD 50 per barrel.

 

  6. USDJPY heads to 60.00


The Liberal Democratic Party comes back into power in Japan, with its supposedly JPY-punishing agenda. Only half-measures are introduced however, and at the same time the market has become over-positioned for JPY weakness and Japanese investors repatriate a portion of their trillions of USD invested abroad as risk appetite retrenches. The yen vaults to the fore as the world's strongest currency, with USDJPY heading as low as 60.00 - ironically paving the way for the LDP government and the BoJ to reach for those more radical yen-weakening measures they promised in the first place.

 

  7. EURCHF breaks peg, touches 0.9500


European Union tail risks are re-aggravated - perhaps by the Italian election - or over the nature of Greece's exit from the European Monetary Union and the worry that Spain and Portugal will follow suit. This sends capital flows surging into Switzerland once again and the Swiss National Bank and Swiss Government decide it is better to abandon the Swiss franc's peg to the euro for a time rather than push reserves past 100% of Switzerland's GDP. As a consequence EURCHF touches a new all-time low below parity before Switzerland is forced to introduce capital controls to stem its strength.

 

  8. Hong Kong unpegs HKD from USD - re-pegs to RMB


Hong Kong moves to unpeg its dollar from the US dollar, and repeg it to the Chinese renminbi. Other Asian countries show signs of wanting to follow suit. RMB volatility increases as China loosens its grip on the currency's movements, and Hong Kong quickly grows to become a major world currency trading centre and the most important centre for trading the RMB.

 

  9. Spain takes one step closer to default as interest rates rise to 10 percent


With social tensions in Spain already high, the public sector simply cannot cut its public outlays further. In 2013, Spanish sovereign debt is downgraded to junk and the social strain pushes Spain over the edge, seeing Spain reject the extend-and-pretend policies of EU officialdom. Yields rapidly increase after the downgrade and as an inevitable default is priced in.

 

  10. 30-year US yield doubles in 2013


The Federal Reserve's zero interest rate policy forces investors to leave fixed income. With no or even negative return, the substitution of bonds with stocks is appealing. The bond market is far larger than the equity market and a 10 per cent reduction of funds allocated to bonds and reallocated to stocks would amplify equity fund inflows by around 30 per cent. This could lead to higher US rates and also be the beginning of decade-long outperformance by stocks over bonds.

 

About Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank is a leading online trading and investment specialist. A fully licensed and regulated European bank, Saxo Bank enables private investors and institutional clients to trade FX, CFDs, ETFs, Stocks, Futures, Options and other derivatives via three specialised and fully integrated trading platforms; the browser-based SaxoWebTrader, the downloadable SaxoTrader and the SaxoMobileTrader application available in over 20 languages. Saxo Bank also offers professional portfolio and fund management through Saxo Asset Management who accommodates high-net worth private clients and institutional investors and provides banking services and advice to retail clients through Saxo Privatbank. The Saxo Bank Group is headquartered in Copenhagen with offices throughout Europe, Asia, Middle East, Latin America and Australia.


More Stories By PR Newswire

Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Latest Stories
As enterprises work to take advantage of Big Data technologies, they frequently become distracted by product-level decisions. In most new Big Data builds this approach is completely counter-productive: it presupposes tools that may not be a fit for development teams, forces IT to take on the burden of evaluating and maintaining unfamiliar technology, and represents a major up-front expense. In his session at @BigDataExpo at @ThingsExpo, Andrew Warfield, CTO and Co-Founder of Coho Data, will dis...
As someone who has been dedicated to automation and Application Release Automation (ARA) technology for almost six years now, one of the most common questions I get asked regards Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS). Specifically, people want to know whether release automation is still needed when a PaaS is in place, and why. Isn't that what a PaaS provides? A solution to the deployment and runtime challenges of an application? Why would anyone using a PaaS then need an automation engine with workflow ...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Fusion, a leading provider of cloud services, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 18th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Fusion, a leading provider of integrated cloud solutions to small, medium and large businesses, is the industry's single source for the cloud. Fusion's advanced, proprietary cloud service platform enables the integration of leading edge solutions in the cloud, including clou...
With the Apple Watch making its way onto wrists all over the world, it’s only a matter of time before it becomes a staple in the workplace. In fact, Forrester reported that 68 percent of technology and business decision-makers characterize wearables as a top priority for 2015. Recognizing their business value early on, FinancialForce.com was the first to bring ERP to wearables, helping streamline communication across front and back office functions. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Kevin Roberts...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Commvault, a global leader in enterprise data protection and information management, has been named “Bronze Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 18th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on June 7–9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY, and the 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Commvault is a leading provider of data protection and information management...
Your business relies on your applications and your employees to stay in business. Whether you develop apps or manage business critical apps that help fuel your business, what happens when users experience sluggish performance? You and all technical teams across the organization – application, network, operations, among others, as well as, those outside the organization, like ISPs and third-party providers – are called in to solve the problem.
SYS-CON Events announced today that Alert Logic, Inc., the leading provider of Security-as-a-Service solutions for the cloud, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 18th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Alert Logic, Inc., provides Security-as-a-Service for on-premises, cloud, and hybrid infrastructures, delivering deep security insight and continuous protection for customers at a lower cost than traditional security solutions. Ful...
@DevOpsSummit taking place June 7-9, 2016 at Javits Center, New York City, and Nov 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, is co-located with the 18th International @CloudExpo and will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. @DevOpsSummit at Cloud Expo New York Call for Papers is now open.
SYS-CON Events announced today that VAI, a leading ERP software provider, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 18th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. VAI (Vormittag Associates, Inc.) is a leading independent mid-market ERP software developer renowned for its flexible solutions and ability to automate critical business functions for the distribution, manufacturing, specialty retail and service sectors. An IBM Premier Business Part...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Catchpoint Systems, Inc., a provider of innovative web and infrastructure monitoring solutions, has been named “Silver Sponsor” of SYS-CON's DevOps Summit at 18th Cloud Expo New York, which will take place June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Catchpoint is a leading Digital Performance Analytics company that provides unparalleled insight into customer-critical services to help consistently deliver an amazing customer experience. Designed...
Let’s face it, embracing new storage technologies, capabilities and upgrading to new hardware often adds complexity and increases costs. In his session at 18th Cloud Expo, Seth Oxenhorn, Vice President of Business Development & Alliances at FalconStor, will discuss how a truly heterogeneous software-defined storage approach can add value to legacy platforms and heterogeneous environments. The result reduces complexity, significantly lowers cost, and provides IT organizations with improved effi...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Pythian, a global IT services company specializing in helping companies adopt disruptive technologies to optimize revenue-generating systems, has been named “Bronze Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 18th Cloud Expo, which will take place on June 7-9, 2015 at the Javits Center in New York, New York. Founded in 1997, Pythian is a global IT services company that helps companies compete by adopting disruptive technologies such as cloud, Big Data, advanced analytics, and DevO...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Men & Mice, the leading global provider of DNS, DHCP and IP address management overlay solutions, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 18th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. The Men & Mice Suite overlay solution is already known for its powerful application in heterogeneous operating environments, enabling enterprises to scale without fuss. Building on a solid range of diverse platform support,...
One of the bewildering things about DevOps is integrating the massive toolchain including the dozens of new tools that seem to crop up every year. Part of DevOps is Continuous Delivery and having a complex toolchain can add additional integration and setup to your developer environment. In his session at @DevOpsSummit at 18th Cloud Expo, Miko Matsumura, Chief Marketing Officer of Gradle Inc., will discuss which tools to use in a developer stack, how to provision the toolchain to minimize onboa...
The cloud promises new levels of agility and cost-savings for Big Data, data warehousing and analytics. But it’s challenging to understand all the options – from IaaS and PaaS to newer services like HaaS (Hadoop as a Service) and BDaaS (Big Data as a Service). In her session at @BigDataExpo at @ThingsExpo, Hannah Smalltree, a director at Cazena, will provide an educational overview of emerging “as-a-service” options for Big Data in the cloud. This is critical background for IT and data profes...