Welcome!

News Feed Item

Saxo Bank 10 Outrageous Predictions for 2013

LONDON, December 18, 2012 /PRNewswire/ --

Saxo Bank, the online multi-asset trading and investment specialist, today releases its annual batch of ten Outrageous Predictions for 2013. This is Saxo Bank's annual exercise in rooting out relatively extreme market and political events for which the probability is perhaps low, if still vastly under-appreciated.

Among these predictions is that Germany will move toward accepting the mutualisation of Euro debt, which combined with other strains could cause the DAX to plunge by about a third from near multi-year highs to 5,000. Another is that gold will fall by around 500 dollars to USD 1,200 per ounce on faster US growth and a stronger US dollar and despite the overhang of Fed's easy monetary policy.

Other events Saxo Bank believes would have a significant impact should they come to pass include Spanish interest rates rising to 10% despite the ECB's OMT mechanism as Greece exits and social tensions rise, and the un-pegging of the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) from the USD and its re-pegging to the Chinese Renminbi as China attempts to take more control of its economic destiny away from the US and its central bank's policies.

Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist at Saxo Bank, comments:

"This year's Outrageous Predictions are once again a selection of mainly negative events, any of which can change the financial landscape and in some cases even the political status quo. Here at the end of 2012, we have extremely low volatility in all asset classes due to the lack of real price discovery from heavy handed manipulation by central banks. In such an environment, almost any move outside of two standard deviations is becoming 'outrageous'.

"These ten predictions are not Saxo Bank's official forecasts for 2013. They could, however, prove far more relevant for investors because of the huge impact if any one of them sees the light of day in the New Year. Before trading or investing, investors must know the worst case scenario - capital preservation is a must and portfolios need to be able to weather a perfect storm, or for that matter any storm."

To see more please go to the Outrageous Predictions website: http://www.tradingfloor.com/topics/saxo-outrageous-predictions

To follow Outrageous Predictions or make your own, join the conversation on Twitter by using the hashtag #SaxoOP and don't forget to follow Trading Floor and Saxo Bank on @tradingfloorcom and @SaxoBank

Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions 2013

 

  1. DAX plunges 33 percent to 5000


China's economic slowdown continues, putting a halt to Germany's industrial expansion. This causes large price declines in industrial stocks and low consumer confidence. Approval ratings for Angela Merkel plunge ahead of the German election, and in a weak economy combined with political uncertainty as Germany moves closer to signing up for further EU debt mutualisation, the DAX stock market index declines to 5,000, down 33 percent for the year.

 

  2. Nationalisation of major Japanese electronics companies


Japan's electronics industry, once the glory of the country, enters a terminal phase after being outmatched by South Korea. With combined annual losses of USD 30 billion for Sharp, Panasonic and Sony alone, creditworthiness deteriorates greatly and the Japanese government nationalises key industry players, similar to the US government's bailout of its automobile industry.

 

  3. Soybeans to rise by 50 percent


Bad weather during 2012, which wreaked havoc on global crop production and saw a nine-year low in US soybean ending stocks, leaves the price of new crop soybeans exposed to any new weather disruptions, either in the US, South America or in China. Increased demand for biofuel will also play its part in exposing the price to spikes, and speculators will be ready to re-enter the market, pushing the price higher by as much as 50 percent. Food security becomes a buzz phrase

 

  4. Gold corrects to USD 1,200 per ounce


The strength of the US economic recovery in 2013 surprises the market and especially financial investors in gold. This and a lack of pick-up in physical demand for gold from China and India, both struggling with weak growth and rising unemployment, trigger a major round of gold liquidation. Gold slumps to USD 1,200 before central banks eventually step in to take advantage of lower prices.

 

  5. WTI crude hits USD 50


US energy production continues to rise, primarily through advanced production techniques such as in the shale oil sector. US production of crude oil rises strongly, and with domestic inventory levels already at a 30-year high and export options limited, WTI benchmark crude oil prices come under renewed selling pressure and slump towards USD 50 per barrel.

 

  6. USDJPY heads to 60.00


The Liberal Democratic Party comes back into power in Japan, with its supposedly JPY-punishing agenda. Only half-measures are introduced however, and at the same time the market has become over-positioned for JPY weakness and Japanese investors repatriate a portion of their trillions of USD invested abroad as risk appetite retrenches. The yen vaults to the fore as the world's strongest currency, with USDJPY heading as low as 60.00 - ironically paving the way for the LDP government and the BoJ to reach for those more radical yen-weakening measures they promised in the first place.

 

  7. EURCHF breaks peg, touches 0.9500


European Union tail risks are re-aggravated - perhaps by the Italian election - or over the nature of Greece's exit from the European Monetary Union and the worry that Spain and Portugal will follow suit. This sends capital flows surging into Switzerland once again and the Swiss National Bank and Swiss Government decide it is better to abandon the Swiss franc's peg to the euro for a time rather than push reserves past 100% of Switzerland's GDP. As a consequence EURCHF touches a new all-time low below parity before Switzerland is forced to introduce capital controls to stem its strength.

 

  8. Hong Kong unpegs HKD from USD - re-pegs to RMB


Hong Kong moves to unpeg its dollar from the US dollar, and repeg it to the Chinese renminbi. Other Asian countries show signs of wanting to follow suit. RMB volatility increases as China loosens its grip on the currency's movements, and Hong Kong quickly grows to become a major world currency trading centre and the most important centre for trading the RMB.

 

  9. Spain takes one step closer to default as interest rates rise to 10 percent


With social tensions in Spain already high, the public sector simply cannot cut its public outlays further. In 2013, Spanish sovereign debt is downgraded to junk and the social strain pushes Spain over the edge, seeing Spain reject the extend-and-pretend policies of EU officialdom. Yields rapidly increase after the downgrade and as an inevitable default is priced in.

 

  10. 30-year US yield doubles in 2013


The Federal Reserve's zero interest rate policy forces investors to leave fixed income. With no or even negative return, the substitution of bonds with stocks is appealing. The bond market is far larger than the equity market and a 10 per cent reduction of funds allocated to bonds and reallocated to stocks would amplify equity fund inflows by around 30 per cent. This could lead to higher US rates and also be the beginning of decade-long outperformance by stocks over bonds.

 

About Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank is a leading online trading and investment specialist. A fully licensed and regulated European bank, Saxo Bank enables private investors and institutional clients to trade FX, CFDs, ETFs, Stocks, Futures, Options and other derivatives via three specialised and fully integrated trading platforms; the browser-based SaxoWebTrader, the downloadable SaxoTrader and the SaxoMobileTrader application available in over 20 languages. Saxo Bank also offers professional portfolio and fund management through Saxo Asset Management who accommodates high-net worth private clients and institutional investors and provides banking services and advice to retail clients through Saxo Privatbank. The Saxo Bank Group is headquartered in Copenhagen with offices throughout Europe, Asia, Middle East, Latin America and Australia.


More Stories By PR Newswire

Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Latest Stories
The current age of digital transformation means that IT organizations must adapt their toolset to cover all digital experiences, beyond just the end users’. Today’s businesses can no longer focus solely on the digital interactions they manage with employees or customers; they must now contend with non-traditional factors. Whether it's the power of brand to make or break a company, the need to monitor across all locations 24/7, or the ability to proactively resolve issues, companies must adapt to...
"Loom is applying artificial intelligence and machine learning into the entire log analysis process, from start to finish and at the end you will get a human touch,” explained Sabo Taylor Diab, Vice President, Marketing at Loom Systems, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 20th Cloud Expo, held June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY.
After more than five years of DevOps, definitions are evolving, boundaries are expanding, ‘unicorns’ are no longer rare, enterprises are on board, and pundits are moving on. Can we now look at an evolution of DevOps? Should we? Is the foundation of DevOps ‘done’, or is there still too much left to do? What is mature, and what is still missing? What does the next 5 years of DevOps look like? In this Power Panel at DevOps Summit, moderated by DevOps Summit Conference Chair Andi Mann, panelists loo...
"Tintri focuses on the Ops side of the DevOps, which basically is pushing more and more of the accessibility of the infrastructure to the developers and trying to get behind the scenes," explained Dhiraj Sehgal of Tintri in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 20th Cloud Expo, held June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY.
@DevOpsSummit at Cloud Expo taking place Oct 31 - Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center, Santa Clara, CA, is co-located with the 21st International Cloud Expo and will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. The widespread success of cloud computing is driving the DevOps revolution in enterprise IT. Now as never before, development teams must communicate and collaborate in a dynamic, 24/7/365 environment. There is ...
You know you need the cloud, but you’re hesitant to simply dump everything at Amazon since you know that not all workloads are suitable for cloud. You know that you want the kind of ease of use and scalability that you get with public cloud, but your applications are architected in a way that makes the public cloud a non-starter. You’re looking at private cloud solutions based on hyperconverged infrastructure, but you’re concerned with the limits inherent in those technologies.
In the world of DevOps there are ‘known good practices’ – aka ‘patterns’ – and ‘known bad practices’ – aka ‘anti-patterns.' Many of these patterns and anti-patterns have been developed from real world experience, especially by the early adopters of DevOps theory; but many are more feasible in theory than in practice, especially for more recent entrants to the DevOps scene. In this power panel at @DevOpsSummit at 18th Cloud Expo, moderated by DevOps Conference Chair Andi Mann, panelists discussed...
A look across the tech landscape at the disruptive technologies that are increasing in prominence and speculate as to which will be most impactful for communications – namely, AI and Cloud Computing. In his session at 20th Cloud Expo, Curtis Peterson, VP of Operations at RingCentral, highlighted the current challenges of these transformative technologies and shared strategies for preparing your organization for these changes. This “view from the top” outlined the latest trends and developments i...
The current age of digital transformation means that IT organizations must adapt their toolset to cover all digital experiences, beyond just the end users’. Today’s businesses can no longer focus solely on the digital interactions they manage with employees or customers; they must now contend with non-traditional factors. Whether it's the power of brand to make or break a company, the need to monitor across all locations 24/7, or the ability to proactively resolve issues, companies must adapt to...
"We focus on composable infrastructure. Composable infrastructure has been named by companies like Gartner as the evolution of the IT infrastructure where everything is now driven by software," explained Bruno Andrade, CEO and Founder of HTBase, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 20th Cloud Expo, held June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY.
Hardware virtualization and cloud computing allowed us to increase resource utilization and increase our flexibility to respond to business demand. Docker Containers are the next quantum leap - Are they?! Databases always represented an additional set of challenges unique to running workloads requiring a maximum of I/O, network, CPU resources combined with data locality.
For organizations that have amassed large sums of software complexity, taking a microservices approach is the first step toward DevOps and continuous improvement / development. Integrating system-level analysis with microservices makes it easier to change and add functionality to applications at any time without the increase of risk. Before you start big transformation projects or a cloud migration, make sure these changes won’t take down your entire organization.
Cloud promises the agility required by today’s digital businesses. As organizations adopt cloud based infrastructures and services, their IT resources become increasingly dynamic and hybrid in nature. Managing these require modern IT operations and tools. In his session at 20th Cloud Expo, Raj Sundaram, Senior Principal Product Manager at CA Technologies, will discuss how to modernize your IT operations in order to proactively manage your hybrid cloud and IT environments. He will be sharing bes...
Artificial intelligence, machine learning, neural networks. We’re in the midst of a wave of excitement around AI such as hasn’t been seen for a few decades. But those previous periods of inflated expectations led to troughs of disappointment. Will this time be different? Most likely. Applications of AI such as predictive analytics are already decreasing costs and improving reliability of industrial machinery. Furthermore, the funding and research going into AI now comes from a wide range of com...
SYS-CON Events announced today that GrapeUp, the leading provider of rapid product development at the speed of business, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place October 31-November 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Grape Up is a software company, specialized in cloud native application development and professional services related to Cloud Foundry PaaS. With five expert teams that operate in various sectors of the market acr...