Click here to close now.




















Welcome!

News Feed Item

'Exposed' Canadian economy to see economic slowdown in 2013: CIBC

Bank drops GDP growth forecast three-tenths to 1.7% but sees pick-up in 2014

TORONTO, Dec. 19, 2012 /CNW/ - Without key domestic economic drivers to shelter Canada from a continued weak global economy, GDP growth will slip to a very mediocre 1.7 per cent in 2013, finds CIBC's latest Canadian economic forecast.

"Having earlier tapped fiscal stimulus and a housing boom to shelter the economy from sluggishness abroad, the country's ability to set its own course is now much more limited," says Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC. "Escaping economic mediocrity will depend on the kindness of strangers, with exports and related capital spending critical to Canada's fate in 2013-14."

Mr. Shenfeld says that the global economy continues to face significant headwinds and as a result he has cut his global outlook for 2013 by two-tenths to three per cent. "It's too early to get the full benefits of policy stimulus in Asia, Europe is too stubborn to soften its fiscal drag enough and amplify ECB bond purchases, and Washington is too wedded to getting going on fiscal tightening stateside, if not the full fiscal cliff."

He adds that while Chinese GDP could show improvement towards an eight per cent pace as early as Q4 of 2012, it is not likely to have much of an impact on other economies as Chinese imports are currently showing no growth at all on a year-over-year basis. As such, he expects there to be a delay before crude oil and other resources rebound in price.

"The absence of a helping hand from abroad will leave Canada exposed," says Mr. Shenfeld. "Blaming temporary disruptions in energy production in Q3 for recent disappointments misses the point: GDP excluding resource extraction has also been decelerating, the loss of home building momentum will offset greater oil output.

"Our downgraded 1.7 per cent growth forecast for 2013 will trail the U.S. pace and is three ticks slower than our last projection. Household debt burdens are keeping consumption bounded by the moderate growth pace for real incomes. Governments also face leaner-than-expected coffers due to downward revisions to nominal GDP expectations, and will be introducing further spending restraints or tax hikes for fiscal 2013."

The report notes that in the near term, this environment will see investors maintain a risk-adverse attitude and see further downward adjustments to corporate earnings expectations. Assets tied to global growth, including commodities and the most cyclical equities, could be flat or see some first half slippage. This will exert near-term downward pressure on the loonie. Equities with less cyclical earnings profiles and well-backed dividends, as well as investment grade corporate bonds, will remain in favour for the next couple of quarters.

Optimism for 2014

"Diamonds are forever, but weak economic growth need not be," adds Mr. Shenfeld. "With its household sector healing, the U.S. should be positioned to lead the way towards a better year come 2014 if, as we expect, new fiscal tightening measures do not hit as deeply that year. Don't underestimate the importance of the upswing underway in housing. As it gathers steam, it will drive related consumer spending ("new living room, new couch") and renovation ("those cabinets have to go"), in addition to actual home-building jobs."

He also expects by 2014 that China will be feeling the full benefit of its own policy easing and the improvement in U.S.-bound exports. Even Europe, if it finally recognizes the need for both a softer hand in fiscal tightening and a more aggressive central bank, might at least register positive growth at that point.

"These developments will propel 2014 exports and resource sector capital spending in Canada, finally delivering the 2½% quarterly growth rates that the Bank of Canada has been expecting, or hoping for, in the past two years," adds Mr. Shenfeld.

"The brighter news on that front, coupled with conservative starting valuations for equities, leaves room for a "risk on" rally in the coming summer and autumn. It's too far out to act on just yet, but by mid-2013, it should be time to shift portfolios into cyclical equities and industrial commodities to take advantage of that likely turn in sentiment."

He believes interest rates will hold steady in Canada through 2013 but that Governor Mark Carney's successor will nudge rates up 50-75 basis points in 2014.

The complete CIBC World Markets report is available at: http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/fdec12.pdf.

CIBC's wholesale banking business provides a range of integrated credit and capital markets products, investment banking, and merchant banking to clients in key financial markets in North America and around the world. We provide innovative capital solutions and advisory expertise across a wide range of industries as well as top-ranked research for our corporate, government and institutional clients.

SOURCE CIBC World Markets

More Stories By PR Newswire

Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Latest Stories
Mobile, social, Big Data, and cloud have fundamentally changed the way we live. “Anytime, anywhere” access to data and information is no longer a luxury; it’s a requirement, in both our personal and professional lives. For IT organizations, this means pressure has never been greater to deliver meaningful services to the business and customers.
Red Hat is investing in Tesora, the number one contributor to OpenStack Trove Database as a Service (DBaaS) also ranked among the top 20 companies contributing to OpenStack overall. Tesora, the company bringing OpenStack Trove Database as a Service (DBaaS) to the enterprise, has announced that Red Hat and others have invested in the company as a part of Tesora's latest funding round. The funding agreement expands on the ongoing collaboration between Tesora and Red Hat, which dates back to Febr...
Puppet Labs has announced the next major update to its flagship product: Puppet Enterprise 2015.2. This release includes new features providing DevOps teams with clarity, simplicity and additional management capabilities, including an all-new user interface, an interactive graph for visualizing infrastructure code, a new unified agent and broader infrastructure support.
Akana has announced the availability of the new Akana Healthcare Solution. The API-driven solution helps healthcare organizations accelerate their transition to being secure, digitally interoperable businesses. It leverages the Health Level Seven International Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (HL7 FHIR) standard to enable broader business use of medical data. Akana developed the Healthcare Solution in response to healthcare businesses that want to increase electronic, multi-device acce...
WebRTC has had a real tough three or four years, and so have those working with it. Only a few short years ago, the development world were excited about WebRTC and proclaiming how awesome it was. You might have played with the technology a couple of years ago, only to find the extra infrastructure requirements were painful to implement and poorly documented. This probably left a bitter taste in your mouth, especially when things went wrong.
Any Ops team trying to support a company in today’s cloud-connected world knows that a new way of thinking is required – one just as dramatic than the shift from Ops to DevOps. The diversity of modern operations requires teams to focus their impact on breadth vs. depth. In his session at DevOps Summit, Adam Serediuk, Director of Operations at xMatters, Inc., will discuss the strategic requirements of evolving from Ops to DevOps, and why modern Operations has begun leveraging the “NoOps” approa...
SYS-CON Events announced today that the "Second Containers & Microservices Expo" will take place November 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Containers and microservices have become topics of intense interest throughout the cloud developer and enterprise IT communities.
SYS-CON Events announced today that G2G3 will exhibit at SYS-CON's @DevOpsSummit Silicon Valley, which will take place on November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Based on a collective appreciation for user experience, design, and technology, G2G3 is uniquely qualified and motivated to redefine how organizations and people engage in an increasingly digital world.
SYS-CON Events announced today that DataClear Inc. will exhibit at the 17th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. The DataClear ‘BlackBox’ is the only solution that moves your PC, browsing and data out of the United States and away from prying (and spying) eyes. Its solution automatically builds you a clean, on-demand, virus free, new virtual cloud based PC outside of the United States, and wipes it clean...
Through WebRTC, audio and video communications are being embedded more easily than ever into applications, helping carriers, enterprises and independent software vendors deliver greater functionality to their end users. With today’s business world increasingly focused on outcomes, users’ growing calls for ease of use, and businesses craving smarter, tighter integration, what’s the next step in delivering a richer, more immersive experience? That richer, more fully integrated experience comes ab...
In their Live Hack” presentation at 17th Cloud Expo, Stephen Coty and Paul Fletcher, Chief Security Evangelists at Alert Logic, will provide the audience with a chance to see a live demonstration of the common tools cyber attackers use to attack cloud and traditional IT systems. This “Live Hack” uses open source attack tools that are free and available for download by anybody. Attendees will learn where to find and how to operate these tools for the purpose of testing their own IT infrastructu...
Too often with compelling new technologies market participants become overly enamored with that attractiveness of the technology and neglect underlying business drivers. This tendency, what some call the “newest shiny object syndrome,” is understandable given that virtually all of us are heavily engaged in technology. But it is also mistaken. Without concrete business cases driving its deployment, IoT, like many other technologies before it, will fade into obscurity.
It’s been proven time and time again that in tech, diversity drives greater innovation, better team productivity and greater profits and market share. So what can we do in our DevOps teams to embrace diversity and help transform the culture of development and operations into a true “DevOps” team? In her session at DevOps Summit, Stefana Muller, Director, Product Management – Continuous Delivery at CA Technologies, answered that question citing examples, showing how to create opportunities for ...
IBM’s Blue Box Cloud, powered by OpenStack, is now available in any of IBM’s globally integrated cloud data centers running SoftLayer infrastructure. Less than 90 days after its acquisition of Blue Box, IBM has integrated its Blue Box Cloud Dedicated private-cloud-as-a-service into its broader portfolio of OpenStack® based solutions. The announcement, made today at the OpenStack Silicon Valley event, further highlights IBM’s continued support to deliver OpenStack solutions across all cloud depl...
WSM International, the pioneer and leader in server migration services, has announced an agreement with WHOA.com, a leader in providing secure public, private and hybrid cloud computing services. Under terms of the agreement, WSM will provide migration services to WHOA.com customers to relocate some or all of their applications, digital assets, and other computing workloads to WHOA.com enterprise-class, secure cloud infrastructure. The migration services include detailed evaluation and planning...