Welcome!

News Feed Item

'Exposed' Canadian economy to see economic slowdown in 2013: CIBC

Bank drops GDP growth forecast three-tenths to 1.7% but sees pick-up in 2014

TORONTO, Dec. 19, 2012 /CNW/ - Without key domestic economic drivers to shelter Canada from a continued weak global economy, GDP growth will slip to a very mediocre 1.7 per cent in 2013, finds CIBC's latest Canadian economic forecast.

"Having earlier tapped fiscal stimulus and a housing boom to shelter the economy from sluggishness abroad, the country's ability to set its own course is now much more limited," says Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC. "Escaping economic mediocrity will depend on the kindness of strangers, with exports and related capital spending critical to Canada's fate in 2013-14."

Mr. Shenfeld says that the global economy continues to face significant headwinds and as a result he has cut his global outlook for 2013 by two-tenths to three per cent. "It's too early to get the full benefits of policy stimulus in Asia, Europe is too stubborn to soften its fiscal drag enough and amplify ECB bond purchases, and Washington is too wedded to getting going on fiscal tightening stateside, if not the full fiscal cliff."

He adds that while Chinese GDP could show improvement towards an eight per cent pace as early as Q4 of 2012, it is not likely to have much of an impact on other economies as Chinese imports are currently showing no growth at all on a year-over-year basis. As such, he expects there to be a delay before crude oil and other resources rebound in price.

"The absence of a helping hand from abroad will leave Canada exposed," says Mr. Shenfeld. "Blaming temporary disruptions in energy production in Q3 for recent disappointments misses the point: GDP excluding resource extraction has also been decelerating, the loss of home building momentum will offset greater oil output.

"Our downgraded 1.7 per cent growth forecast for 2013 will trail the U.S. pace and is three ticks slower than our last projection. Household debt burdens are keeping consumption bounded by the moderate growth pace for real incomes. Governments also face leaner-than-expected coffers due to downward revisions to nominal GDP expectations, and will be introducing further spending restraints or tax hikes for fiscal 2013."

The report notes that in the near term, this environment will see investors maintain a risk-adverse attitude and see further downward adjustments to corporate earnings expectations. Assets tied to global growth, including commodities and the most cyclical equities, could be flat or see some first half slippage. This will exert near-term downward pressure on the loonie. Equities with less cyclical earnings profiles and well-backed dividends, as well as investment grade corporate bonds, will remain in favour for the next couple of quarters.

Optimism for 2014

"Diamonds are forever, but weak economic growth need not be," adds Mr. Shenfeld. "With its household sector healing, the U.S. should be positioned to lead the way towards a better year come 2014 if, as we expect, new fiscal tightening measures do not hit as deeply that year. Don't underestimate the importance of the upswing underway in housing. As it gathers steam, it will drive related consumer spending ("new living room, new couch") and renovation ("those cabinets have to go"), in addition to actual home-building jobs."

He also expects by 2014 that China will be feeling the full benefit of its own policy easing and the improvement in U.S.-bound exports. Even Europe, if it finally recognizes the need for both a softer hand in fiscal tightening and a more aggressive central bank, might at least register positive growth at that point.

"These developments will propel 2014 exports and resource sector capital spending in Canada, finally delivering the 2½% quarterly growth rates that the Bank of Canada has been expecting, or hoping for, in the past two years," adds Mr. Shenfeld.

"The brighter news on that front, coupled with conservative starting valuations for equities, leaves room for a "risk on" rally in the coming summer and autumn. It's too far out to act on just yet, but by mid-2013, it should be time to shift portfolios into cyclical equities and industrial commodities to take advantage of that likely turn in sentiment."

He believes interest rates will hold steady in Canada through 2013 but that Governor Mark Carney's successor will nudge rates up 50-75 basis points in 2014.

The complete CIBC World Markets report is available at: http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/fdec12.pdf.

CIBC's wholesale banking business provides a range of integrated credit and capital markets products, investment banking, and merchant banking to clients in key financial markets in North America and around the world. We provide innovative capital solutions and advisory expertise across a wide range of industries as well as top-ranked research for our corporate, government and institutional clients.

SOURCE CIBC World Markets

More Stories By PR Newswire

Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Latest Stories
Advances in technology and ubiquitous connectivity have made the utilization of a dispersed workforce more common. Whether that remote team is located across the street or country, management styles/ approaches will have to be adjusted to accommodate this new dynamic. In his session at 17th Cloud Expo, Sagi Brody, Chief Technology Officer at Webair Internet Development Inc., focused on the challenges of managing remote teams, providing real-world examples that demonstrate what works and what do...
As enterprises work to take advantage of Big Data technologies, they frequently become distracted by product-level decisions. In most new Big Data builds this approach is completely counter-productive: it presupposes tools that may not be a fit for development teams, forces IT to take on the burden of evaluating and maintaining unfamiliar technology, and represents a major up-front expense. In his session at @BigDataExpo at @ThingsExpo, Andrew Warfield, CTO and Co-Founder of Coho Data, will dis...
Companies can harness IoT and predictive analytics to sustain business continuity; predict and manage site performance during emergencies; minimize expensive reactive maintenance; and forecast equipment and maintenance budgets and expenditures. Providing cost-effective, uninterrupted service is challenging, particularly for organizations with geographically dispersed operations.
When building large, cloud-based applications that operate at a high scale, it’s important to maintain a high availability and resilience to failures. In order to do that, you must be tolerant of failures, even in light of failures in other areas of your application. “Fly two mistakes high” is an old adage in the radio control airplane hobby. It means, fly high enough so that if you make a mistake, you can continue flying with room to still make mistakes. In his session at 18th Cloud Expo, Lee...
The Quantified Economy represents the total global addressable market (TAM) for IoT that, according to a recent IDC report, will grow to an unprecedented $1.3 trillion by 2019. With this the third wave of the Internet-global proliferation of connected devices, appliances and sensors is poised to take off in 2016. In his session at @ThingsExpo, David McLauchlan, CEO and co-founder of Buddy Platform, will discuss how the ability to access and analyze the massive volume of streaming data from mil...
Predictive analytics tools monitor, report, and troubleshoot in order to make proactive decisions about the health, performance, and utilization of storage. Most enterprises combine cloud and on-premise storage, resulting in blended environments of physical, virtual, cloud, and other platforms, which justifies more sophisticated storage analytics. In his session at 18th Cloud Expo, Peter McCallum, Vice President of Datacenter Solutions at FalconStor, will discuss using predictive analytics to ...
Join us at Cloud Expo | @ThingsExpo 2016 – June 7-9 at the Javits Center in New York City and November 1-3 at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA – and deliver your unique message in a way that is striking and unforgettable by taking advantage of SYS-CON's unmatched high-impact, result-driven event / media packages.
WebSocket is effectively a persistent and fat pipe that is compatible with a standard web infrastructure; a "TCP for the Web." If you think of WebSocket in this light, there are other more hugely interesting applications of WebSocket than just simply sending data to a browser. In his session at 18th Cloud Expo, Frank Greco, Director of Technology for Kaazing Corporation, will compare other modern web connectivity methods such as HTTP/2, HTTP Streaming, Server-Sent Events and new W3C event APIs ...
At first adopted by enterprises to consolidate physical servers, virtualization is now widely used in cloud computing to offer elasticity and scalability. On the other hand, Docker has developed a new way to handle Linux containers, inspired by version control software such as Git, which allows you to keep all development versions. In his session at 17th Cloud Expo, Dominique Rodrigues, the co-founder and CTO of Nanocloud Software, discussed how in order to also handle QEMU / KVM virtual machin...
SYS-CON Events announced today that FalconStor Software® Inc., a 15-year innovator of software-defined storage solutions, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 18th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. FalconStor Software®, Inc. (NASDAQ: FALC) is a leading software-defined storage company offering a converged, hardware-agnostic, software-defined storage and data services platform. Its flagship solution FreeStor®, utilizes a horizonta...
Silver Spring Networks, Inc. (NYSE: SSNI) extended its Internet of Things technology platform with performance enhancements to Gen5 – its fifth generation critical infrastructure networking platform. Already delivering nearly 23 million devices on five continents as one of the leading networking providers in the market, Silver Spring announced it is doubling the maximum speed of its Gen5 network to up to 2.4 Mbps, increasing computational performance by 10x, supporting simultaneous mesh communic...
Sensors and effectors of IoT are solving problems in new ways, but small businesses have been slow to join the quantified world. They’ll need information from IoT using applications as varied as the businesses themselves. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Roger Meike, Distinguished Engineer, Director of Technology Innovation at Intuit, showed how IoT manufacturers can use open standards, public APIs and custom apps to enable the Quantified Small Business. He used a Raspberry Pi to connect sensors...
The cloud promises new levels of agility and cost-savings for Big Data, data warehousing and analytics. But it’s challenging to understand all the options – from IaaS and PaaS to newer services like HaaS (Hadoop as a Service) and BDaaS (Big Data as a Service). In her session at @BigDataExpo at @ThingsExpo, Hannah Smalltree, a director at Cazena, will provide an educational overview of emerging “as-a-service” options for Big Data in the cloud. This is critical background for IT and data profes...
Father business cycles and digital consumers are forcing enterprises to respond faster to customer needs and competitive demands. Successful integration of DevOps and Agile development will be key for business success in today’s digital economy. In his session at DevOps Summit, Pradeep Prabhu, Co-Founder & CEO of Cloudmunch, covered the critical practices that enterprises should consider to seamlessly integrate Agile and DevOps processes, barriers to implementing this in the enterprise, and pr...
Eighty percent of a data scientist’s time is spent gathering and cleaning up data, and 80% of all data is unstructured and almost never analyzed. Cognitive computing, in combination with Big Data, is changing the equation by creating data reservoirs and using natural language processing to enable analysis of unstructured data sources. This is impacting every aspect of the analytics profession from how data is mined (and by whom) to how it is delivered. This is not some futuristic vision: it's ha...