Welcome!

News Feed Item

Wilmington Trust Releases 2013-2019 Capital Markets Forecast

Report identifies 'dollars, debts, and demographics' as key economic forces

WILMINGTON, Del., Jan. 15, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Wilmington Trust released its annual seven-year Capital Markets Forecast, projecting continued recovery in the U.S. with economic growth at 1.5-2 percent in 2013, and annualized inflation averaging 2 percent through 2019. The report's theme, "dollars, debts, and demographics," examines how central bank stimulus, global debt, and aging populations will reshape the global economy and financial markets.

The forecast, crafted by the Investment Strategy Team at Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors (WTIA), predicts modest returns on stocks over the seven-year span of the outlook. The team is more optimistic about emerging stock markets, value-oriented large-cap stocks in developed international markets, and non-core bonds, such as sovereign debt of emerging economies and speculative-grade corporate bonds.

"Investing is a long-term proposition," said Rex Macey, WTIA's chief investment officer. "While a myriad of competing economic and political forces will perpetuate a tepid recovery over the next few years, there are opportunities for the diligent investor."

DOLLARS, DEBTS, AND DEMOGRAPHICS
The Capital Markets Forecast includes concerns about the ability of world leaders to drain excess liquidity from the global financial system. While only a 2-percent annualized inflation rate is predicted for the U.S. over the seven-year outlook, the "tidal wave of stimulus" issued by central banks continues to boost financial asset valuations, leading to below-average expected returns.

Just as the world is awash in dollars, it is also steeped in debt. The total debt of the United States, including households, for-profit and not-for-profit entities, and all levels of governments, hit $53.1 trillion at the end of the third quarter of 2012, an amount equal to 3.9 years' worth of all goods and services produced domestically. In 1982, national debt amounted to just 49 weeks' worth of U.S. economic output.

The Investment Strategy Team also cites concern over the "graying" of key populations of the global economy. As U.S. Baby Boomers enter retirement and transition from accumulators of savings to consumers of savings. This demographic shift will likely generate headwinds for the markets. In many emerging markets the demographics are more favorable supporting investments in those markets.  On the bright side in the U.S., the Echo Boomers will be helping to support the housing market in a few years.

SIX U.S. ECONOMIC SCENARIOS
The forecast also examines six potential scenarios and their potential effect on economic growth:

  • Slow growth with normalization
  • Slow growth with persistent economic repression
  • Global policy success
  • Prolonged European / Chinese under-performance
  • U.S. policy failure
  • De-globalization

"In spite of continuing threats to the economy, many economic resources remain in surplus in the U.S. including manufacturing, housing, and labor," said Macey. "Additionally, we see a light at the end of the tunnel. By the end of our forecast horizon in 2019, the U.S. will be ten years removed from the end of the Great Recession, and economic growth and the financial markets should have normalized by that time."

For more detailed analysis and projections, including forecasts and biases for asset classes, Wilmington Trust's 2013-2019 Capital Markets Forecast commentary is available online at www.wilmingtontrust.com/repositories/wtc_sitecontent/PDF/Capital_Markets_Forecast_2013_2019_commentary.pdf.

ABOUT WILMINGTON TRUST INVESTMENT ADVISORS
Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors provides clients with access to quality investment advisory and asset management expertise including equity, fixed income, and alternative strategies. WTIA had over $19.7 billion of assets under management as of Sept. 30, 2012, and it also oversees the investment processes of Wilmington Trust and M&T Bank, which had $40.8 billion of assets under management as of Sept. 30, 2012.

ABOUT THE INVESTMENT STRATEGY TEAM
WTIA's Investment Strategy Team undertakes a multi-year forecast of financial market performance annually. The IST analyzes valuations and global economic scenarios to develop its forecast for longer-term market performance, as well as shorter-term trends in securities prices. The IST aims to deliver higher-than-benchmark total returns for investors based on varying appetites for risk. The forecast underscores the importance of diversification among a variety of asset classes.

ABOUT WILMINGTON TRUST
Wilmington Trust's Wealth Advisory offers a comprehensive array of personal trust, financial planning, fiduciary, asset management, and family office services that help high-net-worth individuals and families grow, preserve, and transfer wealth. Wealth Advisory maintains offices throughout the United States and focuses on serving families with whom it can build long-term relationships, many of which span multiple generations.

Wilmington Trust's Institutional Client Services (ICS) offers institutional trustee, agency, asset management, retirement plan, and administrative services for clients worldwide who use capital markets financing structures, as well as those who seek to establish or maintain nexus, or legal residency for special purpose entities. ICS is distinguished from many competitors by its status as a core business of Wilmington Trust, as well as the experience and expertise of its global staff, and its multi-jurisdictional presence.

Wilmington Trust has offices throughout the United States and internationally in London, Luxembourg, Frankfurt, Dublin, Amsterdam, Cayman Islands, and Channel Islands. Wilmington Trust is an M&T company. For more information, visit www.WilmingtonTrust.com.

Media Contact: Kent Wissinger, Communication Manager (302)651-8758

SOURCE Wilmington Trust

More Stories By PR Newswire

Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Latest Stories
SYS-CON Events announced today that Hitrons Solutions will exhibit at the 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Hitrons Solutions Inc. is distributor in the North American market for unique products and services of small and medium-size businesses, including cloud services and solutions, SEO marketing platforms, and mobile applications.
Smart Cities are here to stay, but for their promise to be delivered, the data they produce must not be put in new siloes. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Mathias Herberts, Co-founder and CTO of Cityzen Data, will deep dive into best practices that will ensure a successful smart city journey.
SYS-CON Events announced today that 910Telecom will exhibit at the 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Housed in the classic Denver Gas & Electric Building, 910 15th St., 910Telecom is a carrier-neutral telecom hotel located in the heart of Denver. Adjacent to CenturyLink, AT&T, and Denver Main, 910Telecom offers connectivity to all major carriers, Internet service providers, Internet backbones and ...
SYS-CON Events announced today that eCube Systems, a leading provider of middleware modernization, integration, and management solutions, will exhibit at @DevOpsSummit at 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. eCube Systems offers a family of middleware evolution products and services that maximize return on technology investment by leveraging existing technical equity to meet evolving business needs. ...
DevOps at Cloud Expo – being held November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA – announces that its Call for Papers is open. Born out of proven success in agile development, cloud computing, and process automation, DevOps is a macro trend you cannot afford to miss. From showcase success stories from early adopters and web-scale businesses, DevOps is expanding to organizations of all sizes, including the world's largest enterprises – and delivering real results. Am...
Pulzze Systems was happy to participate in such a premier event and thankful to be receiving the winning investment and global network support from G-Startup Worldwide. It is an exciting time for Pulzze to showcase the effectiveness of innovative technologies and enable them to make the world smarter and better. The reputable contest is held to identify promising startups around the globe that are assured to change the world through their innovative products and disruptive technologies. There w...
Internet of @ThingsExpo, taking place November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, is co-located with 19th Cloud Expo and will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. The Internet of Things (IoT) is the most profound change in personal and enterprise IT since the creation of the Worldwide Web more than 20 years ago. All major researchers estimate there will be tens of billions devices - comp...
DevOps at Cloud Expo, taking place Nov 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, is co-located with 19th Cloud Expo and will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. The widespread success of cloud computing is driving the DevOps revolution in enterprise IT. Now as never before, development teams must communicate and collaborate in a dynamic, 24/7/365 environment. There is no time to wait for long dev...
SYS-CON Events announced today that StarNet Communications will exhibit at the 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. StarNet Communications’ FastX is the industry first cloud-based remote X Windows emulator. Using standard Web browsers (FireFox, Chrome, Safari, etc.) users from around the world gain highly secure access to applications and data hosted on Linux-based servers in a central data center. ...
Traditional on-premises data centers have long been the domain of modern data platforms like Apache Hadoop, meaning companies who build their business on public cloud were challenged to run Big Data processing and analytics at scale. But recent advancements in Hadoop performance, security, and most importantly cloud-native integrations, are giving organizations the ability to truly gain value from all their data. In his session at 19th Cloud Expo, David Tishgart, Director of Product Marketing ...
Data is the fuel that drives the machine learning algorithmic engines and ultimately provides the business value. In his session at Cloud Expo, Ed Featherston, a director and senior enterprise architect at Collaborative Consulting, will discuss the key considerations around quality, volume, timeliness, and pedigree that must be dealt with in order to properly fuel that engine.
There is growing need for data-driven applications and the need for digital platforms to build these apps. In his session at 19th Cloud Expo, Muddu Sudhakar, VP and GM of Security & IoT at Splunk, will cover different PaaS solutions and Big Data platforms that are available to build applications. In addition, AI and machine learning are creating new requirements that developers need in the building of next-gen apps. The next-generation digital platforms have some of the past platform needs a...
19th Cloud Expo, taking place November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. Cloud computing is now being embraced by a majority of enterprises of all sizes. Yesterday's debate about public vs. private has transformed into the reality of hybrid cloud: a recent survey shows that 74% of enterprises have a hybrid cloud strategy. Meanwhile, 94% of enterpri...
SYS-CON Events announced today Telecom Reseller has been named “Media Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Telecom Reseller reports on Unified Communications, UCaaS, BPaaS for enterprise and SMBs. They report extensively on both customer premises based solutions such as IP-PBX as well as cloud based and hosted platforms.
The 19th International Cloud Expo has announced that its Call for Papers is open. Cloud Expo, to be held November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, brings together Cloud Computing, Big Data, Internet of Things, DevOps, Digital Transformation, Microservices and WebRTC to one location. With cloud computing driving a higher percentage of enterprise IT budgets every year, it becomes increasingly important to plant your flag in this fast-expanding business opportuni...