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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China Increases in January

BEIJING, Feb. 20, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 1.0 percent in January to 253.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in December and a 1.1 percent increase in November. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in January.

Says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing: "January's acceleration in the LEI was driven primarily by consumer expectations and estimated real estate activity, both of which were likely positively affected by the Chinese New Year holiday. Credit extension also contributed to the increase in the LEI. Despite the seasonal uptick in some components, recent gains in the LEI have become less widespread and the current rebound in economic activity continues to look modest."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.6 percent in January to 233.7 (2004 = 100), following a 1.1 percent increase in December and a 1.4 percent increase in November. All five components contributed positively to the index in January.  

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People's Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People's Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

For more information including full press release and technical notes: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2013 indicator releases: http://www.conference-board.org/data/

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.


Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2012




2013


6-month


Nov

 


Dec

 


Jan

 


Jul to Jan

 

Leading Economic index (LEI)

249.9

p

251.0

p

253.4

p


Percent Change

1.1

p

0.4

p

1.0

p

6.5


Diffusion

91.7


50.0


66.7


66.7










Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

229.7

r

232.2


233.7

p


Percent Change

1.4

r

1.1


0.6

p

5.2


Diffusion

100.0


100.0


100.0


100.0










n.a. Not available     p Preliminary     r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board       All Rights Reserved


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