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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China Increased Sharply in November

BEIJING, Dec. 17, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 1.4 percent in November. The index stands at 278.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in October and a 1.0 percent increase in September. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in November.

Says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing: "Growth in the China LEI accelerated in November, driven entirely by real estate and new lending. Despite the uptick, the economy does not appear to be gaining any underlying momentum, as manufacturing, exports and consumer expectations all continue to struggle. Furthermore, both real estate and credit markets are likely to be hit by tighter policy in the coming months, thus the outlook for the Chinese economy remains skewed toward slower growth."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.8 percent in November to 252.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in October and a 0.2 percent increase in September. All five components contributed positively to the index in November.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China 

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People's Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People's Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

 

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes






 Sep


2013

Oct


Nov


6-month

May Nov









Leading Economic index (LEI)

272.3

p

274.1

p

278.0

p


  Percent Change

1.0

p

0.7

p

1.4

 p

6.3

  Diffusion

58.3


75.0


58.3


91.7









Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

248.7

p

250.6

p

252.7

p


  Percent Change

0.2

p

0.8

p

0.8

p

5.2

  Diffusion

80.0


80.0


100.0


100.0









n.a. Not available      p Preliminary      r Revised




Indexes equal 100 in 2004




Source: The Conference Board           All Rights Reserved




 

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