|By PR Newswire||
|January 4, 2014 05:00 PM EST||
LONDON, January 4, 2014 /PRNewswire/ --
Lord Ashcroft poll:
- 37% of 2010 Tories would not vote for the party tomorrow
- Potential switchers prefer Cameron to Miliband but doubt Tories on fairness and public services
- Linking economic growth and personal prosperity is election key
More than a third (37%) of those who voted Conservative at the last general election say they would not do so tomorrow, according to new polling by Lord Ashcroft. These Conservative 'defectors' significantly outweigh the number of voters who have been attracted from other parties since 2010, making it more difficult for David Cameron to win an overall majority in 2015.
The findings are from Project Blueprint: Phase 4, the latest round of Lord Ashcroft's research into the Tories' prospects of winning the next election outright. As he says in the report's introduction: "If the Conservatives want to govern after the next election without a coalition of parties, they are going to need a bigger coalition of voters."
Lord Ashcroft warns that building this general election-winning coalition - not this year's European Parliament elections - should remain the party's priority in 2014. Project Blueprint examines four types of potential Conservative voter:
Loyalists (23% of all voters) are sticking with the party since 2010 but are not necessarily lifelong Tories. Most are driven by a positive view of David Cameron, and believe the Tories share their values, have the best approach to the economy and are the most likely to have workable policies.
Joiners (6% of voters) say they would vote Conservative tomorrow even though they did not do so in 2010. They are more likely than most to see the Tories as competent and overwhelmingly prefer Cameron to Miliband as PM, but are more likely than most to prefer coalition government and to say they may yet change their mind how to vote.
Defectors (37% of 2010 Conservative voters), who voted Tory at the last election but do not say they would do so tomorrow, more than outweigh the Joiners. Less than one in five Defectors have switched to Labour or the Liberal Democrats. One third say they do not know how they will vote, or will not vote at all. Around half say they would vote UKIP in an election tomorrow. Defectors tend to give lower scores to Cameron and doubt that the Tories are competent or stand for fairness. However, most Defectors want to see a Conservative overall majority, most prefer Cameron to Miliband, and they are more likely than average to say they may change their mind before the election.
Considerers (3% of all voters) did not vote Conservative in 2010 and would not do so tomorrow but would consider doing so in the future. They prefer Cameron to Miliband but have reservations about the Tories' approach to public services, and are much more likely than average to say they prefer the current coalition to the idea of a Conservative overall majority.
The research also found:
- Overall, 28% say they are satisfied with Cameron's performance as PM and a further 32% say they are dissatisfied but prefer him to Ed Miliband. 40% say they would rather see Miliband in Downing Street.
- In a forced choice, 57% say they most trusted David Cameron and George Osborne to manage the economy in the best interests of Britain, and 43% Ed Miliband and Ed Balls. The two parties are neck and neck on getting the economy growing and creating jobs, while the Conservatives lead by 55% to 34% on tackling the deficit and the debt.
- A small majority (54%) expect the economy in a year or two to be no better or even worse than it is now. 46% say the right decisions are being made and things will improve significantly in that time.
- Asked whether the country as a whole would be better off after five years of Conservative or Labour government, 36% said Conservative and 33% Labour. Asked the same question about themselves and their family, 35% said Labour and 29% Conservative.
In his commentary on the research, published on Conservative Home on Sunday, Lord Ashcroft said:
"This research shows it is far from impossible for the Tories to win outright. But to do so they will need the votes of everyone who supported for them last time, plus practically everyone who is even prepared to think about doing so next time."
Though many voters thought the economy was recovering, few were feeling any benefit personally:
"I found many voters saying, albeit sometimes grudgingly, that given the situation it found itself in the government had not done too badly. It had started to bring the public finances under control, and was moving in the right direction on welfare and immigration even if they thought the results were so far meagre. But none of this changed that fact that, for many of them, life was hard and showed no signs of getting any easier despite the recovery they kept hearing so much about. As far as the Tories' hardworking people are concerned, where - to use a phrase from the archive of the party's lexicon - are the proceeds of growth?"
Restoring the living standards of previous years would be very difficult given the economic situation:
"How to produce a sustainable recovery to the higher living standards of previous years when those living standards were fuelled by levels of private credit and state spending that were themselves, self-evidently, unsustainable? Gordon Brown made his voters feel more prosperous by putting money directly into their bank accounts in the form of higher public sector pay and a gigantic expansion of tax credits. This option is not available to George Osborne, and he would not take it if it were. Finding the connection between national and personal prosperity - and persuading people to be prepared to wait for it - is the key to the next election."
Lord Ashcroft concludes that the Conservatives need to offer a clear direction to win the next election, not simply highlighting Labour's weaknesses and relying on progress achieved since 2010:
"Drawing a contrast with Labour and highlighting progress on welfare, immigration and the macro economy, important though they are, will only take the Tories so far. It needs to be clearer what would be on offer under a new Conservative government. It is one thing to say don't turn back, but we also need to know where we're going."
Notes to Editors
- 8,053 adults were interviewed online between 4 and 10 November 2013. Results were weighted to be representative of the population of Great Britain. Twelve focus groups were conducted between 13 and 27 November 2013 in Croydon, Loughborough, Halifax, Bury, Taunton and Warwick.
- Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, author and philanthropist. He is founder and Chairman of the Board of Crimestoppers, a member of the Board of the Imperial War Museum, Chairman of the Trustees of Ashcroft Technology Academy, Chancellor of Anglia Ruskin University and Treasurer of the International Democrat Union. From 2005 to 2010 he was Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party.
- His political books and research papers include Smell The Coffee (2005), Minority Verdict (2010), Crime, Punishment & The People; The Leadership Factor (2011), Degrees of Separation; Blue Collar Tories, Project Red Alert; Understanding The UKIP Temptation (2012), What Are The Liberal Democrats For?, Marginal Territory, Are You Serious: Boris, The Tories And The Voters; Small Island: Public Opinion And The Politics Of Immigration (2013); and Cameron's Caledonian Conundrum (2013).
- Full details of Lord Ashcroft's polling and commentary can be found at LordAshcroftPolls.com. You can also follow him on Twitter: @LordAshcroft.
View the poll:
What are the successful IoT innovations from emerging markets? What are the unique challenges and opportunities from these markets? How did the constraints in connectivity among others lead to groundbreaking insights? In her session at @ThingsExpo, Carmen Feliciano, a Principal at AMDG, will answer all these questions and share how you can apply IoT best practices and frameworks from the emerging markets to your own business.
Oct. 27, 2016 03:00 AM EDT Reads: 2,682
Big Data has been changing the world. IoT fuels the further transformation recently. How are Big Data and IoT related? In his session at @BigDataExpo, Tony Shan, a renowned visionary and thought leader, will explore the interplay of Big Data and IoT. He will anatomize Big Data and IoT separately in terms of what, which, why, where, when, who, how and how much. He will then analyze the relationship between IoT and Big Data, specifically the drilldown of how the 4Vs of Big Data (Volume, Variety,...
Oct. 27, 2016 02:45 AM EDT Reads: 1,584
Between the mockups and specs produced by analysts, and resulting applications built by developers, there exists a gulf where projects fail, costs spiral, and applications disappoint. Methodologies like Agile attempt to address this with intensified communication, with partial success but many limitations. In his session at @DevOpsSummit at 19th Cloud Expo, Charles Kendrick, CTO at Isomorphic Software, will present a revolutionary model enabled by new technologies. Learn how business and deve...
Oct. 27, 2016 02:45 AM EDT Reads: 1,514
SYS-CON Events announced today that SoftNet Solutions will exhibit at the 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. SoftNet Solutions specializes in Enterprise Solutions for Hadoop and Big Data. It offers customers the most open, robust, and value-conscious portfolio of solutions, services, and tools for the shortest route to success with Big Data. The unique differentiator is the ability to architect and ...
Oct. 27, 2016 02:15 AM EDT Reads: 1,116
The Internet of Things will challenge the status quo of how IT and development organizations operate. Or will it? Certainly the fog layer of IoT requires special insights about data ontology, security and transactional integrity. But the developmental challenges are the same: People, Process and Platform and how we integrate our thinking to solve complicated problems. In his session at 19th Cloud Expo, Craig Sproule, CEO of Metavine, will demonstrate how to move beyond today's coding paradigm ...
Oct. 27, 2016 02:00 AM EDT Reads: 3,953
For basic one-to-one voice or video calling solutions, WebRTC has proven to be a very powerful technology. Although WebRTC’s core functionality is to provide secure, real-time p2p media streaming, leveraging native platform features and server-side components brings up new communication capabilities for web and native mobile applications, allowing for advanced multi-user use cases such as video broadcasting, conferencing, and media recording.
Oct. 27, 2016 02:00 AM EDT Reads: 4,254
DevOps is being widely accepted (if not fully adopted) as essential in enterprise IT. But as Enterprise DevOps gains maturity, expands scope, and increases velocity, the need for data-driven decisions across teams becomes more acute. DevOps teams in any modern business must wrangle the ‘digital exhaust’ from the delivery toolchain, "pervasive" and "cognitive" computing, APIs and services, mobile devices and applications, the Internet of Things, and now even blockchain. In this power panel at @...
Oct. 27, 2016 01:45 AM EDT Reads: 2,144
Qosmos, the market leader for IP traffic classification and network intelligence technology, has announced that it will launch the Launch L7 Viewer at CloudExpo | @ThingsExpo Silicon Valley, being held November 1 – 3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. The L7 Viewer is a traffic analysis tool that provides complete visibility of all network traffic that crosses a virtualized infrastructure, up to Layer 7. It facilitates and accelerates common IT tasks such as VM migra...
Oct. 27, 2016 01:30 AM EDT Reads: 425
A completely new computing platform is on the horizon. They’re called Microservers by some, ARM Servers by others, and sometimes even ARM-based Servers. No matter what you call them, Microservers will have a huge impact on the data center and on server computing in general. Although few people are familiar with Microservers today, their impact will be felt very soon. This is a new category of computing platform that is available today and is predicted to have triple-digit growth rates for some ...
Oct. 27, 2016 01:00 AM EDT Reads: 34,294
As the world moves toward more DevOps and Microservices, application deployment to the cloud ought to become a lot simpler. The Microservices architecture, which is the basis of many new age distributed systems such as OpenStack, NetFlix and so on, is at the heart of Cloud Foundry - a complete developer-oriented Platform as a Service (PaaS) that is IaaS agnostic and supports vCloud, OpenStack and AWS. Serverless computing is revolutionizing computing. In his session at 19th Cloud Expo, Raghav...
Oct. 27, 2016 12:45 AM EDT Reads: 2,168
So you think you are a DevOps warrior, huh? Put your money (not really, it’s free) where your metrics are and prove it by taking The Ultimate DevOps Geek Quiz Challenge, sponsored by DevOps Summit. Battle through the set of tough questions created by industry thought leaders to earn your bragging rights and win some cool prizes.
Oct. 27, 2016 12:30 AM EDT Reads: 4,191
In past @ThingsExpo presentations, Joseph di Paolantonio has explored how various Internet of Things (IoT) and data management and analytics (DMA) solution spaces will come together as sensor analytics ecosystems. This year, in his session at @ThingsExpo, Joseph di Paolantonio from DataArchon, will be adding the numerous Transportation areas, from autonomous vehicles to “Uber for containers.” While IoT data in any one area of Transportation will have a huge impact in that area, combining sensor...
Oct. 27, 2016 12:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,117
SYS-CON Events announced today that Isomorphic Software will exhibit at DevOps Summit at 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Isomorphic Software provides the SmartClient HTML5/AJAX platform, the most advanced technology for building rich, cutting-edge enterprise web applications for desktop and mobile. SmartClient combines the productivity and performance of traditional desktop software with the simp...
Oct. 27, 2016 12:00 AM EDT Reads: 3,540
Almost everyone sees the potential of Internet of Things but how can businesses truly unlock that potential. The key will be in the ability to discover business insight in the midst of an ocean of Big Data generated from billions of embedded devices via Systems of Discover. Businesses will also need to ensure that they can sustain that insight by leveraging the cloud for global reach, scale and elasticity.
Oct. 27, 2016 12:00 AM EDT Reads: 11,129
SYS-CON Media announced today that @WebRTCSummit Blog, the largest WebRTC resource in the world, has been launched. @WebRTCSummit Blog offers top articles, news stories, and blog posts from the world's well-known experts and guarantees better exposure for its authors than any other publication. @WebRTCSummit Blog can be bookmarked ▸ Here @WebRTCSummit conference site can be bookmarked ▸ Here
Oct. 26, 2016 11:30 PM EDT Reads: 9,755