|By PR Newswire||
|January 4, 2014 05:00 PM EST||
LONDON, January 4, 2014 /PRNewswire/ --
Lord Ashcroft poll:
- 37% of 2010 Tories would not vote for the party tomorrow
- Potential switchers prefer Cameron to Miliband but doubt Tories on fairness and public services
- Linking economic growth and personal prosperity is election key
More than a third (37%) of those who voted Conservative at the last general election say they would not do so tomorrow, according to new polling by Lord Ashcroft. These Conservative 'defectors' significantly outweigh the number of voters who have been attracted from other parties since 2010, making it more difficult for David Cameron to win an overall majority in 2015.
The findings are from Project Blueprint: Phase 4, the latest round of Lord Ashcroft's research into the Tories' prospects of winning the next election outright. As he says in the report's introduction: "If the Conservatives want to govern after the next election without a coalition of parties, they are going to need a bigger coalition of voters."
Lord Ashcroft warns that building this general election-winning coalition - not this year's European Parliament elections - should remain the party's priority in 2014. Project Blueprint examines four types of potential Conservative voter:
Loyalists (23% of all voters) are sticking with the party since 2010 but are not necessarily lifelong Tories. Most are driven by a positive view of David Cameron, and believe the Tories share their values, have the best approach to the economy and are the most likely to have workable policies.
Joiners (6% of voters) say they would vote Conservative tomorrow even though they did not do so in 2010. They are more likely than most to see the Tories as competent and overwhelmingly prefer Cameron to Miliband as PM, but are more likely than most to prefer coalition government and to say they may yet change their mind how to vote.
Defectors (37% of 2010 Conservative voters), who voted Tory at the last election but do not say they would do so tomorrow, more than outweigh the Joiners. Less than one in five Defectors have switched to Labour or the Liberal Democrats. One third say they do not know how they will vote, or will not vote at all. Around half say they would vote UKIP in an election tomorrow. Defectors tend to give lower scores to Cameron and doubt that the Tories are competent or stand for fairness. However, most Defectors want to see a Conservative overall majority, most prefer Cameron to Miliband, and they are more likely than average to say they may change their mind before the election.
Considerers (3% of all voters) did not vote Conservative in 2010 and would not do so tomorrow but would consider doing so in the future. They prefer Cameron to Miliband but have reservations about the Tories' approach to public services, and are much more likely than average to say they prefer the current coalition to the idea of a Conservative overall majority.
The research also found:
- Overall, 28% say they are satisfied with Cameron's performance as PM and a further 32% say they are dissatisfied but prefer him to Ed Miliband. 40% say they would rather see Miliband in Downing Street.
- In a forced choice, 57% say they most trusted David Cameron and George Osborne to manage the economy in the best interests of Britain, and 43% Ed Miliband and Ed Balls. The two parties are neck and neck on getting the economy growing and creating jobs, while the Conservatives lead by 55% to 34% on tackling the deficit and the debt.
- A small majority (54%) expect the economy in a year or two to be no better or even worse than it is now. 46% say the right decisions are being made and things will improve significantly in that time.
- Asked whether the country as a whole would be better off after five years of Conservative or Labour government, 36% said Conservative and 33% Labour. Asked the same question about themselves and their family, 35% said Labour and 29% Conservative.
In his commentary on the research, published on Conservative Home on Sunday, Lord Ashcroft said:
"This research shows it is far from impossible for the Tories to win outright. But to do so they will need the votes of everyone who supported for them last time, plus practically everyone who is even prepared to think about doing so next time."
Though many voters thought the economy was recovering, few were feeling any benefit personally:
"I found many voters saying, albeit sometimes grudgingly, that given the situation it found itself in the government had not done too badly. It had started to bring the public finances under control, and was moving in the right direction on welfare and immigration even if they thought the results were so far meagre. But none of this changed that fact that, for many of them, life was hard and showed no signs of getting any easier despite the recovery they kept hearing so much about. As far as the Tories' hardworking people are concerned, where - to use a phrase from the archive of the party's lexicon - are the proceeds of growth?"
Restoring the living standards of previous years would be very difficult given the economic situation:
"How to produce a sustainable recovery to the higher living standards of previous years when those living standards were fuelled by levels of private credit and state spending that were themselves, self-evidently, unsustainable? Gordon Brown made his voters feel more prosperous by putting money directly into their bank accounts in the form of higher public sector pay and a gigantic expansion of tax credits. This option is not available to George Osborne, and he would not take it if it were. Finding the connection between national and personal prosperity - and persuading people to be prepared to wait for it - is the key to the next election."
Lord Ashcroft concludes that the Conservatives need to offer a clear direction to win the next election, not simply highlighting Labour's weaknesses and relying on progress achieved since 2010:
"Drawing a contrast with Labour and highlighting progress on welfare, immigration and the macro economy, important though they are, will only take the Tories so far. It needs to be clearer what would be on offer under a new Conservative government. It is one thing to say don't turn back, but we also need to know where we're going."
Notes to Editors
- 8,053 adults were interviewed online between 4 and 10 November 2013. Results were weighted to be representative of the population of Great Britain. Twelve focus groups were conducted between 13 and 27 November 2013 in Croydon, Loughborough, Halifax, Bury, Taunton and Warwick.
- Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, author and philanthropist. He is founder and Chairman of the Board of Crimestoppers, a member of the Board of the Imperial War Museum, Chairman of the Trustees of Ashcroft Technology Academy, Chancellor of Anglia Ruskin University and Treasurer of the International Democrat Union. From 2005 to 2010 he was Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party.
- His political books and research papers include Smell The Coffee (2005), Minority Verdict (2010), Crime, Punishment & The People; The Leadership Factor (2011), Degrees of Separation; Blue Collar Tories, Project Red Alert; Understanding The UKIP Temptation (2012), What Are The Liberal Democrats For?, Marginal Territory, Are You Serious: Boris, The Tories And The Voters; Small Island: Public Opinion And The Politics Of Immigration (2013); and Cameron's Caledonian Conundrum (2013).
- Full details of Lord Ashcroft's polling and commentary can be found at LordAshcroftPolls.com. You can also follow him on Twitter: @LordAshcroft.
View the poll:
I recently attended and was a speaker at the 4th International Internet of @ThingsExpo at the Santa Clara Convention Center. I also had the opportunity to attend this event last year and I wrote a blog from that show talking about how the “Enterprise Impact of IoT” was a key theme of last year’s show. I was curious to see if the same theme would still resonate 365 days later and what, if any, changes I would see in the content presented.
Nov. 24, 2015 08:00 PM EST Reads: 337
Apps and devices shouldn't stop working when there's limited or no network connectivity. Learn how to bring data stored in a cloud database to the edge of the network (and back again) whenever an Internet connection is available. In his session at 17th Cloud Expo, Ben Perlmutter, a Sales Engineer with IBM Cloudant, demonstrated techniques for replicating cloud databases with devices in order to build offline-first mobile or Internet of Things (IoT) apps that can provide a better, faster user e...
Nov. 24, 2015 07:30 PM EST Reads: 340
Culture is the most important ingredient of DevOps. The challenge for most organizations is defining and communicating a vision of beneficial DevOps culture for their organizations, and then facilitating the changes needed to achieve that. Often this comes down to an ability to provide true leadership. As a CIO, are your direct reports IT managers or are they IT leaders? The hard truth is that many IT managers have risen through the ranks based on their technical skills, not their leadership ab...
Nov. 24, 2015 06:00 PM EST Reads: 317
Microservices are a very exciting architectural approach that many organizations are looking to as a way to accelerate innovation. Microservices promise to allow teams to move away from monolithic "ball of mud" systems, but the reality is that, in the vast majority of organizations, different projects and technologies will continue to be developed at different speeds. How to handle the dependencies between these disparate systems with different iteration cycles? Consider the "canoncial problem"...
Nov. 24, 2015 06:00 PM EST Reads: 366
With all the incredible momentum behind the Internet of Things (IoT) industry, it is easy to forget that not a single CEO wakes up and wonders if “my IoT is broken.” What they wonder is if they are making the right decisions to do all they can to increase revenue, decrease costs, and improve customer experience – effectively the same challenges they have always had in growing their business. The exciting thing about the IoT industry is now these decisions can be better, faster, and smarter. Now ...
Nov. 24, 2015 05:30 PM EST Reads: 141
Two weeks ago (November 3-5), I attended the Cloud Expo Silicon Valley as a speaker, where I presented on the security and privacy due diligence requirements for cloud solutions. Cloud security is a topical issue for every CIO, CISO, and technology buyer. Decision-makers are always looking for insights on how to mitigate the security risks of implementing and using cloud solutions. Based on the presentation topics covered at the conference, as well as the general discussions heard between sessi...
Nov. 24, 2015 04:30 PM EST Reads: 283
In his General Session at DevOps Summit, Asaf Yigal, Co-Founder & VP of Product at Logz.io, explored the value of Kibana 4 for log analysis and provided a hands-on tutorial on how to set up Kibana 4 and get the most out of Apache log files. He examined three use cases: IT operations, business intelligence, and security and compliance. Asaf Yigal is co-founder and VP of Product at log analytics software company Logz.io. In the past, he was co-founder of social-trading platform Currensee, which...
Nov. 24, 2015 03:45 PM EST
Discussions of cloud computing have evolved in recent years from a focus on specific types of cloud, to a world of hybrid cloud, and to a world dominated by the APIs that make today's multi-cloud environments and hybrid clouds possible. In this Power Panel at 17th Cloud Expo, moderated by Conference Chair Roger Strukhoff, panelists addressed the importance of customers being able to use the specific technologies they need, through environments and ecosystems that expose their APIs to make true ...
Nov. 24, 2015 03:30 PM EST Reads: 459
The buzz continues for cloud, data analytics and the Internet of Things (IoT) and their collective impact across all industries. But a new conversation is emerging - how do companies use industry disruption and technology enablers to lead in markets undergoing change, uncertainty and ambiguity? Organizations of all sizes need to evolve and transform, often under massive pressure, as industry lines blur and merge and traditional business models are assaulted and turned upside down. In this new da...
Nov. 24, 2015 03:30 PM EST Reads: 135
There are over 120 breakout sessions in all, with Keynotes, General Sessions, and Power Panels adding to three days of incredibly rich presentations and content. Join @ThingsExpo conference chair Roger Strukhoff (@IoT2040), June 7-9, 2016 in New York City, for three days of intense 'Internet of Things' discussion and focus, including Big Data's indespensable role in IoT, Smart Grids and Industrial Internet of Things, Wearables and Consumer IoT, as well as (new) IoT's use in Vertical Markets.
Nov. 24, 2015 03:30 PM EST Reads: 507
In today's enterprise, digital transformation represents organizational change even more so than technology change, as customer preferences and behavior drive end-to-end transformation across lines of business as well as IT. To capitalize on the ubiquitous disruption driving this transformation, companies must be able to innovate at an increasingly rapid pace. Traditional approaches for driving innovation are now woefully inadequate for keeping up with the breadth of disruption and change facin...
Nov. 24, 2015 03:00 PM EST Reads: 404
Container technology is shaping the future of DevOps and it’s also changing the way organizations think about application development. With the rise of mobile applications in the enterprise, businesses are abandoning year-long development cycles and embracing technologies that enable rapid development and continuous deployment of apps. In his session at DevOps Summit, Kurt Collins, Developer Evangelist at Built.io, examined how Docker has evolved into a highly effective tool for application del...
Nov. 24, 2015 03:00 PM EST Reads: 284
SYS-CON Events announced today that Alert Logic, Inc., the leading provider of Security-as-a-Service solutions for the cloud, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 18th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Alert Logic, Inc., provides Security-as-a-Service for on-premises, cloud, and hybrid infrastructures, delivering deep security insight and continuous protection for customers at a lower cost than traditional security solutions. Ful...
Nov. 24, 2015 02:15 PM EST Reads: 257
The Internet of Things (IoT) is growing rapidly by extending current technologies, products and networks. By 2020, Cisco estimates there will be 50 billion connected devices. Gartner has forecast revenues of over $300 billion, just to IoT suppliers. Now is the time to figure out how you’ll make money – not just create innovative products. With hundreds of new products and companies jumping into the IoT fray every month, there’s no shortage of innovation. Despite this, McKinsey/VisionMobile data...
Nov. 24, 2015 02:00 PM EST Reads: 416
The cloud. Like a comic book superhero, there seems to be no problem it can’t fix or cost it can’t slash. Yet making the transition is not always easy and production environments are still largely on premise. Taking some practical and sensible steps to reduce risk can also help provide a basis for a successful cloud transition. A plethora of surveys from the likes of IDG and Gartner show that more than 70 percent of enterprises have deployed at least one or more cloud application or workload. Y...
Nov. 24, 2015 01:45 PM EST Reads: 407