|By PR Newswire||
|January 4, 2014 05:00 PM EST||
LONDON, January 4, 2014 /PRNewswire/ --
Lord Ashcroft poll:
- 37% of 2010 Tories would not vote for the party tomorrow
- Potential switchers prefer Cameron to Miliband but doubt Tories on fairness and public services
- Linking economic growth and personal prosperity is election key
More than a third (37%) of those who voted Conservative at the last general election say they would not do so tomorrow, according to new polling by Lord Ashcroft. These Conservative 'defectors' significantly outweigh the number of voters who have been attracted from other parties since 2010, making it more difficult for David Cameron to win an overall majority in 2015.
The findings are from Project Blueprint: Phase 4, the latest round of Lord Ashcroft's research into the Tories' prospects of winning the next election outright. As he says in the report's introduction: "If the Conservatives want to govern after the next election without a coalition of parties, they are going to need a bigger coalition of voters."
Lord Ashcroft warns that building this general election-winning coalition - not this year's European Parliament elections - should remain the party's priority in 2014. Project Blueprint examines four types of potential Conservative voter:
Loyalists (23% of all voters) are sticking with the party since 2010 but are not necessarily lifelong Tories. Most are driven by a positive view of David Cameron, and believe the Tories share their values, have the best approach to the economy and are the most likely to have workable policies.
Joiners (6% of voters) say they would vote Conservative tomorrow even though they did not do so in 2010. They are more likely than most to see the Tories as competent and overwhelmingly prefer Cameron to Miliband as PM, but are more likely than most to prefer coalition government and to say they may yet change their mind how to vote.
Defectors (37% of 2010 Conservative voters), who voted Tory at the last election but do not say they would do so tomorrow, more than outweigh the Joiners. Less than one in five Defectors have switched to Labour or the Liberal Democrats. One third say they do not know how they will vote, or will not vote at all. Around half say they would vote UKIP in an election tomorrow. Defectors tend to give lower scores to Cameron and doubt that the Tories are competent or stand for fairness. However, most Defectors want to see a Conservative overall majority, most prefer Cameron to Miliband, and they are more likely than average to say they may change their mind before the election.
Considerers (3% of all voters) did not vote Conservative in 2010 and would not do so tomorrow but would consider doing so in the future. They prefer Cameron to Miliband but have reservations about the Tories' approach to public services, and are much more likely than average to say they prefer the current coalition to the idea of a Conservative overall majority.
The research also found:
- Overall, 28% say they are satisfied with Cameron's performance as PM and a further 32% say they are dissatisfied but prefer him to Ed Miliband. 40% say they would rather see Miliband in Downing Street.
- In a forced choice, 57% say they most trusted David Cameron and George Osborne to manage the economy in the best interests of Britain, and 43% Ed Miliband and Ed Balls. The two parties are neck and neck on getting the economy growing and creating jobs, while the Conservatives lead by 55% to 34% on tackling the deficit and the debt.
- A small majority (54%) expect the economy in a year or two to be no better or even worse than it is now. 46% say the right decisions are being made and things will improve significantly in that time.
- Asked whether the country as a whole would be better off after five years of Conservative or Labour government, 36% said Conservative and 33% Labour. Asked the same question about themselves and their family, 35% said Labour and 29% Conservative.
In his commentary on the research, published on Conservative Home on Sunday, Lord Ashcroft said:
"This research shows it is far from impossible for the Tories to win outright. But to do so they will need the votes of everyone who supported for them last time, plus practically everyone who is even prepared to think about doing so next time."
Though many voters thought the economy was recovering, few were feeling any benefit personally:
"I found many voters saying, albeit sometimes grudgingly, that given the situation it found itself in the government had not done too badly. It had started to bring the public finances under control, and was moving in the right direction on welfare and immigration even if they thought the results were so far meagre. But none of this changed that fact that, for many of them, life was hard and showed no signs of getting any easier despite the recovery they kept hearing so much about. As far as the Tories' hardworking people are concerned, where - to use a phrase from the archive of the party's lexicon - are the proceeds of growth?"
Restoring the living standards of previous years would be very difficult given the economic situation:
"How to produce a sustainable recovery to the higher living standards of previous years when those living standards were fuelled by levels of private credit and state spending that were themselves, self-evidently, unsustainable? Gordon Brown made his voters feel more prosperous by putting money directly into their bank accounts in the form of higher public sector pay and a gigantic expansion of tax credits. This option is not available to George Osborne, and he would not take it if it were. Finding the connection between national and personal prosperity - and persuading people to be prepared to wait for it - is the key to the next election."
Lord Ashcroft concludes that the Conservatives need to offer a clear direction to win the next election, not simply highlighting Labour's weaknesses and relying on progress achieved since 2010:
"Drawing a contrast with Labour and highlighting progress on welfare, immigration and the macro economy, important though they are, will only take the Tories so far. It needs to be clearer what would be on offer under a new Conservative government. It is one thing to say don't turn back, but we also need to know where we're going."
Notes to Editors
- 8,053 adults were interviewed online between 4 and 10 November 2013. Results were weighted to be representative of the population of Great Britain. Twelve focus groups were conducted between 13 and 27 November 2013 in Croydon, Loughborough, Halifax, Bury, Taunton and Warwick.
- Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, author and philanthropist. He is founder and Chairman of the Board of Crimestoppers, a member of the Board of the Imperial War Museum, Chairman of the Trustees of Ashcroft Technology Academy, Chancellor of Anglia Ruskin University and Treasurer of the International Democrat Union. From 2005 to 2010 he was Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party.
- His political books and research papers include Smell The Coffee (2005), Minority Verdict (2010), Crime, Punishment & The People; The Leadership Factor (2011), Degrees of Separation; Blue Collar Tories, Project Red Alert; Understanding The UKIP Temptation (2012), What Are The Liberal Democrats For?, Marginal Territory, Are You Serious: Boris, The Tories And The Voters; Small Island: Public Opinion And The Politics Of Immigration (2013); and Cameron's Caledonian Conundrum (2013).
- Full details of Lord Ashcroft's polling and commentary can be found at LordAshcroftPolls.com. You can also follow him on Twitter: @LordAshcroft.
View the poll:
I wanted to gather all of my Internet of Things (IOT) blogs into a single blog (that I could later use with my University of San Francisco (USF) Big Data “MBA” course). However as I started to pull these blogs together, I realized that my IOT discussion lacked a vision; it lacked an end point towards which an organization could drive their IOT envisioning, proof of value, app dev, data engineering and data science efforts. And I think that the IOT end point is really quite simple…
Aug. 27, 2016 12:45 PM EDT Reads: 2,329
Internet of @ThingsExpo, taking place November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, is co-located with 19th Cloud Expo and will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. The Internet of Things (IoT) is the most profound change in personal and enterprise IT since the creation of the Worldwide Web more than 20 years ago. All major researchers estimate there will be tens of billions devices - comp...
Aug. 27, 2016 12:30 PM EDT Reads: 3,606
SYS-CON Events announced today that eCube Systems, a leading provider of middleware modernization, integration, and management solutions, will exhibit at @DevOpsSummit at 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. eCube Systems offers a family of middleware evolution products and services that maximize return on technology investment by leveraging existing technical equity to meet evolving business needs. ...
Aug. 27, 2016 12:00 PM EDT Reads: 615
StarNet Communications Corp has announced the addition of three Secure Remote Desktop modules to its flagship X-Win32 PC X server. The new modules enable X-Win32 to safely tunnel the remote desktops from Linux and Unix servers to the user’s PC over encrypted SSH. Traditionally, users of PC X servers deploy the XDMCP protocol to display remote desktop environments such as the Gnome and KDE desktops on Linux servers and the CDE environment on Solaris Unix machines. XDMCP is used primarily on comp...
Aug. 27, 2016 12:00 PM EDT Reads: 611
Traditional on-premises data centers have long been the domain of modern data platforms like Apache Hadoop, meaning companies who build their business on public cloud were challenged to run Big Data processing and analytics at scale. But recent advancements in Hadoop performance, security, and most importantly cloud-native integrations, are giving organizations the ability to truly gain value from all their data. In his session at 19th Cloud Expo, David Tishgart, Director of Product Marketing ...
Aug. 27, 2016 12:00 PM EDT Reads: 475
DevOps at Cloud Expo, taking place Nov 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, is co-located with 19th Cloud Expo and will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. The widespread success of cloud computing is driving the DevOps revolution in enterprise IT. Now as never before, development teams must communicate and collaborate in a dynamic, 24/7/365 environment. There is no time to wait for long dev...
Aug. 27, 2016 11:00 AM EDT Reads: 2,346
The 19th International Cloud Expo has announced that its Call for Papers is open. Cloud Expo, to be held November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, brings together Cloud Computing, Big Data, Internet of Things, DevOps, Digital Transformation, Microservices and WebRTC to one location. With cloud computing driving a higher percentage of enterprise IT budgets every year, it becomes increasingly important to plant your flag in this fast-expanding business opportuni...
Aug. 27, 2016 11:00 AM EDT Reads: 3,961
Aspose.Total for .NET is the most complete package of all file format APIs for .NET as offered by Aspose. It empowers developers to create, edit, render, print and convert between a wide range of popular document formats within any .NET, C#, ASP.NET and VB.NET applications. Aspose compiles all .NET APIs on a daily basis to ensure that it contains the most up to date versions of each of Aspose .NET APIs. If a new .NET API or a new version of existing APIs is released during the subscription peri...
Aug. 27, 2016 10:30 AM EDT Reads: 1,954
Data is the fuel that drives the machine learning algorithmic engines and ultimately provides the business value. In his session at Cloud Expo, Ed Featherston, a director and senior enterprise architect at Collaborative Consulting, will discuss the key considerations around quality, volume, timeliness, and pedigree that must be dealt with in order to properly fuel that engine.
Aug. 27, 2016 10:15 AM EDT Reads: 1,886
SYS-CON Events announced today that StarNet Communications will exhibit at the 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. StarNet Communications’ FastX is the industry first cloud-based remote X Windows emulator. Using standard Web browsers (FireFox, Chrome, Safari, etc.) users from around the world gain highly secure access to applications and data hosted on Linux-based servers in a central data center. ...
Aug. 27, 2016 08:45 AM EDT Reads: 756
SYS-CON Events announced today that Hitrons Solutions will exhibit at the 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Hitrons Solutions Inc. is distributor in the North American market for unique products and services of small and medium-size businesses, including cloud services and solutions, SEO marketing platforms, and mobile applications.
Aug. 27, 2016 08:00 AM EDT Reads: 605
Pulzze Systems was happy to participate in such a premier event and thankful to be receiving the winning investment and global network support from G-Startup Worldwide. It is an exciting time for Pulzze to showcase the effectiveness of innovative technologies and enable them to make the world smarter and better. The reputable contest is held to identify promising startups around the globe that are assured to change the world through their innovative products and disruptive technologies. There w...
Aug. 27, 2016 07:45 AM EDT Reads: 662
As the world moves toward more DevOps and Microservices, application deployment to the cloud ought to become a lot simpler. The Microservices architecture, which is the basis of many new age distributed systems such as OpenStack, NetFlix and so on, is at the heart of Cloud Foundry - a complete developer-oriented Platform as a Service (PaaS) that is IaaS agnostic and supports vCloud, OpenStack and AWS. Serverless computing is revolutionizing computing. In his session at 19th Cloud Expo, Raghav...
Aug. 27, 2016 07:45 AM EDT Reads: 789
Today we can collect lots and lots of performance data. We build beautiful dashboards and even have fancy query languages to access and transform the data. Still performance data is a secret language only a couple of people understand. The more business becomes digital the more stakeholders are interested in this data including how it relates to business. Some of these people have never used a monitoring tool before. They have a question on their mind like “How is my application doing” but no id...
Aug. 27, 2016 03:15 AM EDT Reads: 1,777
Personalization has long been the holy grail of marketing. Simply stated, communicate the most relevant offer to the right person and you will increase sales. To achieve this, you must understand the individual. Consequently, digital marketers developed many ways to gather and leverage customer information to deliver targeted experiences. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Lou Casal, Founder and Principal Consultant at Practicala, discussed how the Internet of Things (IoT) has accelerated our abil...
Aug. 27, 2016 02:30 AM EDT Reads: 2,005