Welcome!

News Feed Item

FXPRIMUS Market Brief of the Week: Is This Non-farm Payroll (NFP) the Same as a Weather Report?

SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE -- (Marketwired) -- 01/14/14 -- In FXPRIMUS' Market Brief of The Week for 13 January, the brokerage firm's Senior Economist, Jimmy Zhu, analyses labour market data from US and Australia, and China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index.

Economic Insights

Investors shouldn't overreact on one-month data, especially from DecemberIn the United States, no single indicator can tell the actual scenario in the labor market. One-month data, especially for December, is not significant enough to change the Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook on the US economy and its monetary policy. Under this prospective, payrolls data last Friday provided ample selling opportunities for currencies rebounding sharply, such as the Aussie and Yen, as long as the US recovery continues gaining its momentum later in the year.

The Labor Department report showed that employment rose by 74,000, the smallest gain since January. The falling unemployment rate with a falling participating rate shouldn't be viewed as positive since more people left the labor force. You can't eliminate the weather factor and other separated data suggests it. Heavy snowfall forced some workers to remain home; less hiring will be available under this circumstance. According to official figures, 273,000 people didn't report to work because of bad weather, the most for any December since 1977. In other words, weather had an impact; the market understood that and so does the Fed. If this was any other month, payrolls might not change so significantly. However, many temporary jobs are required in the Christmas and year-end seasons, bad weather forces more people to refuse to hire or be hired. The difficult thing to explain is why the participation rate fell 0.2%. It didn't echo with recent resilient indicators in the US, such as Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing and non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMI).

To view a photo associated with this release, please visit the following link: http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/922036a.pdf

The market may have an opportunity to digest the NFP, thanks to the minimal data flow this week. It also reflects street expectation on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision this month. Even with unemployment falling to 6.7% at this stage, I do not think the Fed will rush to lower its threshold before normalizing rates in the upcoming few meetings. They expect to gradually remove its stimulus in its balance sheet this year, unless Fundamentals change substantially in the US or globally in the latter part of the year.

Australia will release its labor market data this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to use it to decide the following monetary policy in February, and to what extent to use verbal intervention to its Aussie dollar, which is called "jawboning." Based on the Swap market probability, the market still expected one more rate cut from the RBA. By looking at the macro picture on the Australia economy, the currency easing cycle still exists well, especially when the Chinese economy may lose its recovery momentum in the near term.

In China, manufacturing PMI started falling from its peak despite economic indicators remaining sound. But the US and Euro Zone manufacturing activities continue seeking a new high. This alarms the possible growth divergence between the Chinese economy and Developed Markets in western countries. It also further alarms the RBA to keep its monetary policy longer than expected.

For the European Central Bank (ECB) press conference, no significant monetary policy changed besides highlighting a strengthening firmer forward guidance. Disinflation in the Euro Zone hasn't been severe enough to prompt the central bank to ease further after it cut the rate to a record low at 0.25% last November.

Top news this week

US Retail Sales MoM

I expect figures to come in at 0.1%.

Australia's Employment Changes

I expect figures to come in at 11,000.

Trade Recommendation

Short AUDNZD at 1.1055

The AUDNZD was in a clear downtrend since March last year, and there is no clear evidence to show that the pair will reverse yet. According to the latest readings of Chinese data, the further upside surprise of the Chinese economy in the near run has been well-trimmed. In other words, demands on raw materials shrank. However, rising wages in China continue boosting demand for dairy and food imports, benefiting New Zealand's economy.

I would like to go Short on the AUDNZD if the pair rebounds to 1.0880.

Entry Price = 1.0880

Stop Loss = 1.0930

1st Profit = 1.0830

2nd Profit = 1.0800

To view a graph associated with this release, please visit the following link: http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/922036b.pdf

ABOUT FXPRIMUS

FXPRIMUS offers retail traders a level of trade execution, service quality and fund safety that are normally reserved only for the largest investors. Serving traders in 205 countries across 6 continents FXPRIMUS combines an unmatched level of fund safety with regular independent audits of company financials and Straight Through Processing, top notch execution with tight spreads, prompt and responsive customer support, ISO 27001 certification in Information Security, ISO 9001:2008 certification in Quality Management and an industry-leading trader toolset that includes free access to powerful trader tools. FXPRIMUS truly is The Safest Place To Trade.

Add to Digg Bookmark with del.icio.us Add to Newsvine

More Stories By Marketwired .

Copyright © 2009 Marketwired. All rights reserved. All the news releases provided by Marketwired are copyrighted. Any forms of copying other than an individual user's personal reference without express written permission is prohibited. Further distribution of these materials is strictly forbidden, including but not limited to, posting, emailing, faxing, archiving in a public database, redistributing via a computer network or in a printed form.

Latest Stories
With billions of sensors deployed worldwide, the amount of machine-generated data will soon exceed what our networks can handle. But consumers and businesses will expect seamless experiences and real-time responsiveness. What does this mean for IoT devices and the infrastructure that supports them? More of the data will need to be handled at - or closer to - the devices themselves.
SYS-CON Events announced today that CollabNet, a global leader in enterprise software development, release automation and DevOps solutions, will be a Bronze Sponsor of SYS-CON's 20th International Cloud Expo®, taking place from June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. CollabNet offers a broad range of solutions with the mission of helping modern organizations deliver quality software at speed. The company’s latest innovation, the DevOps Lifecycle Manager (DLM), supports Value S...
Building a cross-cloud operational model can be a daunting task. Per-cloud silos are not the answer, but neither is a fully generic abstraction plane that strips out capabilities unique to a particular provider. In his session at 20th Cloud Expo, Chris Wolf, VP & Chief Technology Officer, Global Field & Industry at VMware, will discuss how successful organizations approach cloud operations and management, with insights into where operations should be centralized and when it’s best to decentraliz...
DevOps is often described as a combination of technology and culture. Without both, DevOps isn't complete. However, applying the culture to outdated technology is a recipe for disaster; as response times grow and connections between teams are delayed by technology, the culture will die. A Nutanix Enterprise Cloud has many benefits that provide the needed base for a true DevOps paradigm. In his Day 3 Keynote at 20th Cloud Expo, Chris Brown, a Solutions Marketing Manager at Nutanix, will explore t...
Multiple data types are pouring into IoT deployments. Data is coming in small packages as well as enormous files and data streams of many sizes. Widespread use of mobile devices adds to the total. In this power panel at @ThingsExpo, moderated by Conference Chair Roger Strukhoff, panelists will look at the tools and environments that are being put to use in IoT deployments, as well as the team skills a modern enterprise IT shop needs to keep things running, get a handle on all this data, and deli...
In his keynote at @ThingsExpo, Chris Matthieu, Director of IoT Engineering at Citrix and co-founder and CTO of Octoblu, focused on building an IoT platform and company. He provided a behind-the-scenes look at Octoblu’s platform, business, and pivots along the way (including the Citrix acquisition of Octoblu).
The Internet of Things is clearly many things: data collection and analytics, wearables, Smart Grids and Smart Cities, the Industrial Internet, and more. Cool platforms like Arduino, Raspberry Pi, Intel's Galileo and Edison, and a diverse world of sensors are making the IoT a great toy box for developers in all these areas. In this Power Panel at @ThingsExpo, moderated by Conference Chair Roger Strukhoff, panelists discussed what things are the most important, which will have the most profound e...
Automation is enabling enterprises to design, deploy, and manage more complex, hybrid cloud environments. Yet the people who manage these environments must be trained in and understanding these environments better than ever before. A new era of analytics and cognitive computing is adding intelligence, but also more complexity, to these cloud environments. How smart is your cloud? How smart should it be? In this power panel at 20th Cloud Expo, moderated by Conference Chair Roger Strukhoff, pane...
Grape Up is a software company, specialized in cloud native application development and professional services related to Cloud Foundry PaaS. With five expert teams that operate in various sectors of the market across the USA and Europe, we work with a variety of customers from emerging startups to Fortune 1000 companies.
SYS-CON Events announced today that Grape Up will exhibit at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct. 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Grape Up is a software company specializing in cloud native application development and professional services related to Cloud Foundry PaaS. With five expert teams that operate in various sectors of the market across the U.S. and Europe, Grape Up works with a variety of customers from emergi...
Financial Technology has become a topic of intense interest throughout the cloud developer and enterprise IT communities. Accordingly, attendees at the upcoming 20th Cloud Expo at the Javits Center in New York, June 6-8, 2017, will find fresh new content in a new track called FinTech.
@ThingsExpo has been named the Most Influential ‘Smart Cities - IIoT' Account and @BigDataExpo has been named fourteenth by Right Relevance (RR), which provides curated information and intelligence on approximately 50,000 topics. In addition, Right Relevance provides an Insights offering that combines the above Topics and Influencers information with real time conversations to provide actionable intelligence with visualizations to enable decision making. The Insights service is applicable to eve...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Interoute, owner-operator of one of Europe's largest networks and a global cloud services platform, has been named “Bronze Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 20th Cloud Expo, which will take place on June 6-8, 2017 at the Javits Center in New York, New York. Interoute is the owner-operator of one of Europe's largest networks and a global cloud services platform which encompasses 12 data centers, 14 virtual data centers and 31 colocation centers, with connections to 195 add...
DevOps is often described as a combination of technology and culture. Without both, DevOps isn't complete. However, applying the culture to outdated technology is a recipe for disaster; as response times grow and connections between teams are delayed by technology, the culture will die. A Nutanix Enterprise Cloud has many benefits that provide the needed base for a true DevOps paradigm.
20th Cloud Expo, taking place June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY, will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. Cloud computing is now being embraced by a majority of enterprises of all sizes. Yesterday's debate about public vs. private has transformed into the reality of hybrid cloud: a recent survey shows that 74% of enterprises have a hybrid cloud strategy.