Click here to close now.




















Welcome!

News Feed Item

Longevity Experts Discover Flaws in Current Mortality Data

NEW YORK, NY -- (Marketwired) -- 01/15/14 -- Institutional Investor Journals, sponsored by Prudential, recently hosted "Phantoms Never Die: Living with Unreliable Mortality Data." Professors David Blake of the Pensions Institute at Cass Business School and Andrew Cairns of Heriot-Watt University presented a fascinating forensic analysis of mortality data from England and Wales. These data are critical for insurers, and reinsurers, like Prudential, which use mortality projections for different age groups to price annuities and pension buyouts.

The analysis showed there was a puzzling pattern of mortality improvements amongst people in the United Kingdom who are now aged over 90, starting back in 1992. This was due to a combination of effects. First, there was a change in the method used to derive mid-year population estimates based on the 2001 census. Second, in 1919 in the middle of the Spanish flu, the births at the midpoint of the year were significantly lower than the average for that year (because many more people were born in the second half of the year than in the first half).

This meant that following the 2001 census, the number of people born in 1919 was overstated -- introducing "phantoms" into the data. These phantoms served to understate the estimated mortality rate for 82 year olds in 2001 (since the population was overstated). The Office for National Statistics, noticing this effect, "smoothed" the anomalies into the data -- effectively "creating" the phantoms from 1992 to 2002 and then "migrating" them out from 2002 to 2012. "Our key finding is that it is important to take into account the pattern of births each year in order to get a more accurate estimate of that year's population. Any error in estimation will follow that cohort through time," said Professor Blake.

Professor Cairns noted: "Our work has been a reminder that real-world datasets are rarely as accurate as we would like them to be. We have found that identification of anomalies and data-cleansing can only be done through the use of a comprehensive set of graphical diagnostics, identification of signature plots and rigorous statistical modelling."

"Longevity risk is real and needs to move to the top of the agenda for those managing pension fund liabilities. Through this research Professors Blake and Cairns shine a light on one aspect of flawed mortality data," states Allison Adams, Group Publisher of the Institutional Investor Journals.

Amy Kessler, senior vice president, Prudential Retirement, stressed that correcting this anomaly allowed the longevity market to go from "good to great" -- that the vast majority of mortality data and insights derived from those data are sound. Peter Nakada from RMS applauded the Cairns-Blake-Dowd team for "continuous improvement" of mortality data, and suggested that this provides a sounder footing for modeling future mortality trends as well.

To register to obtain a complimentary copy of Pension & Longevity Risk Transfer for Institutional Investors, click here.

For more information about Institutional Investor Journals please contact Erin Scanlon at [email protected] or (212) 2247-3255. To contact Prudential Financial, Inc. please contact Tanya Valle at [email protected] or 973-802-4370.

About Institutional Investor Journals
Institutional Investor Journals
offer in-depth, original, and practical research in investment management and finance. Written and edited by world-renowned practitioners and academics, the Journals and special topic Guides are extensively read and highly regarded in the industry. Their cutting-edge analysis and strategic insights make them invaluable resources for institutional investors all over the world. Institutional Investor Journals feature articles by investment luminaries and Nobel laureates. For more information, please visit www.iijournals.com.

Add to Digg Bookmark with del.icio.us Add to Newsvine

More Stories By Marketwired .

Copyright © 2009 Marketwired. All rights reserved. All the news releases provided by Marketwired are copyrighted. Any forms of copying other than an individual user's personal reference without express written permission is prohibited. Further distribution of these materials is strictly forbidden, including but not limited to, posting, emailing, faxing, archiving in a public database, redistributing via a computer network or in a printed form.

Latest Stories
As Marc Andreessen says software is eating the world. Everything is rapidly moving toward being software-defined – from our phones and cars through our washing machines to the datacenter. However, there are larger challenges when implementing software defined on a larger scale - when building software defined infrastructure. In his session at 16th Cloud Expo, Boyan Ivanov, CEO of StorPool, provided some practical insights on what, how and why when implementing "software-defined" in the datacent...
Between the compelling mockups and specs produced by your analysts and designers, and the resulting application built by your developers, there is a gulf where projects fail, costs spiral out of control, and applications fall short of requirements. In his session at @DevOpsSummit, Charles Kendrick, CTO and Chief Architect at Isomorphic Software, presented a new approach where business and development users collaborate – each using tools appropriate to their goals and expertise – to build mocku...
Graylog, Inc., has added the capability to collect, centralize and analyze application container logs from within Docker. The Graylog logging driver for Docker addresses the challenges of extracting intelligence from within Docker containers, where most workloads are dynamic and log data is not persisted or stored. Using Graylog, DevOps and IT Ops teams can pinpoint the root cause of problems to deliver new applications faster and minimize downtime.
Learn how you can use the CoSN SEND II Decision Tree for Education Technology to make sure that your K–12 technology initiatives create a more engaging learning experience that empowers students, teachers, and administrators alike.
Mobile, social, Big Data, and cloud have fundamentally changed the way we live. “Anytime, anywhere” access to data and information is no longer a luxury; it’s a requirement, in both our personal and professional lives. For IT organizations, this means pressure has never been greater to deliver meaningful services to the business and customers.
In a recent research, analyst firm IDC found that the average cost of a critical application failure is $500,000 to $1 million per hour and the average total cost of unplanned application downtime is $1.25 billion to $2.5 billion per year for Fortune 1000 companies. In addition to the findings on the cost of the downtime, the research also highlighted best practices for development, testing, application support, infrastructure, and operations teams.
"We've just seen a huge influx of new partners coming into our ecosystem, and partners building unique offerings on top of our API set," explained Seth Bostock, Chief Executive Officer at IndependenceIT, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 16th Cloud Expo, held June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City.
SYS-CON Events announced today that HPM Networks will exhibit at the 17th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. For 20 years, HPM Networks has been integrating technology solutions that solve complex business challenges. HPM Networks has designed solutions for both SMB and enterprise customers throughout the San Francisco Bay Area.
Container technology is sending shock waves through the world of cloud computing. Heralded as the 'next big thing,' containers provide software owners a consistent way to package their software and dependencies while infrastructure operators benefit from a standard way to deploy and run them. Containers present new challenges for tracking usage due to their dynamic nature. They can also be deployed to bare metal, virtual machines and various cloud platforms. How do software owners track the usag...
As organizations shift towards IT-as-a-service models, the need for managing and protecting data residing across physical, virtual, and now cloud environments grows with it. CommVault can ensure protection and E-Discovery of your data – whether in a private cloud, a Service Provider delivered public cloud, or a hybrid cloud environment – across the heterogeneous enterprise. In his session at 17th Cloud Expo, Randy De Meno, Chief Technologist - Windows Products and Microsoft Partnerships at Com...
SYS-CON Events announced today that VividCortex, the monitoring solution for the modern data system, will exhibit at the 17th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. The database is the heart of most applications, but it’s also the part that’s hardest to scale, monitor, and optimize even as it’s growing 50% year over year. VividCortex is the first unified suite of database monitoring tools specifically desi...
The Software Defined Data Center (SDDC), which enables organizations to seamlessly run in a hybrid cloud model (public + private cloud), is here to stay. IDC estimates that the software-defined networking market will be valued at $3.7 billion by 2016. Security is a key component and benefit of the SDDC, and offers an opportunity to build security 'from the ground up' and weave it into the environment from day one. In his session at 16th Cloud Expo, Reuven Harrison, CTO and Co-Founder of Tufin,...
In their session at 17th Cloud Expo, Hal Schwartz, CEO of Secure Infrastructure & Services (SIAS), and Chuck Paolillo, CTO of Secure Infrastructure & Services (SIAS), provide a study of cloud adoption trends and the power and flexibility of IBM Power and Pureflex cloud solutions. In his role as CEO of Secure Infrastructure & Services (SIAS), Hal Schwartz provides leadership and direction for the company.
SYS-CON Events announced today that MobiDev, a software development company, will exhibit at the 17th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. MobiDev is a software development company with representative offices in Atlanta (US), Sheffield (UK) and Würzburg (Germany); and development centers in Ukraine. Since 2009 it has grown from a small group of passionate engineers and business managers to a full-scale mobi...
There are many considerations when moving applications from on-premise to cloud. It is critical to understand the benefits and also challenges of this migration. A successful migration will result in lower Total Cost of Ownership, yet offer the same or higher level of robustness. In his session at 15th Cloud Expo, Michael Meiner, an Engineering Director at Oracle, Corporation, analyzed a range of cloud offerings (IaaS, PaaS, SaaS) and discussed the benefits/challenges of migrating to each offe...