|By Marketwired .||
|January 20, 2014 10:41 PM EST||
SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE -- (Marketwired) -- 01/20/14 -- In FXPRIMUS' Market Brief of The Week for 20 January, the brokerage firm's Senior Economist, Jimmy Zhu, China's key data releases and how they are affecting worldwide markets.
Slightly Lower Chinese GDP in 4Q Suggests That Growth Has Peaked in Near Term
This morning, China just released key data such as its 4Q GDP and December Industrial Production (IP) data. China's 4th Quarter GDP rose 7.7% YoY, 1.8% QoQ; December Industrial Output rose 9.7% YoY; December Retail Sales rose 13.6% YoY; economic growth slowed down slightly, as factory output and investment spending eased in the fourth quarter. It signalled that credit growth might take a hit this year due to the government's determination to curb shadow banking.
China has not released its 2014 growth target yet, and it is likely to be released next month based on past history. We estimate that the GDP target for this year will remain at 7.5%. In other words, the government could be using a gradual pace to reform the economy.
Markets took the releases negatively, as the recent indicators suggested that economy has been fading since middle of the 4Q. It is one of the reasons why the Aussie moved toward the level of 0.85. The employment data adds on further bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could lower its cash rate again during the first half of this year. Last week, Australian payrolls fell by 22,600 in December when consensus was a decent gain. Full-time payrolls recorded a big loss since 1992. The unemployment rate remains high at 5.8%, matching the highest level since June 2009.
Aussie failed to rebound although policy decisions on 5th November and 3rd December last year by the RBA was to "hold the rates", and Glenn Stevens said the exchange rate was "uncomfortably high", which was not so dovish compared to the middle of last year.
However, he jawboned the Aussie dollar lower as he thought the AUDUSD should be close to 0.85.
According to current consensus, here are the top four concerns on reasons that may push the Aussie dollar lower in 2014:
Growth engine in China was lost, especially the demand for the hard commodity from China. It should not be recognized as a positive catalyst for the Aussie dollar.
According to the swap market, there is a 48.6% chance that the RBA benchmark cash target will be lowered by June 2014. So long as easing expectations exist, the Aussie will remain under pressure even if there is no "rate cut" from the RBA.
The Australian economy will probably grow by 2.7% this year, with the expansion accelerating to 3% in 2015. The growth is well below the historical average growth in Australia, prompting the central bank to do more in the coming months.
The U.S. recovery should gradually remove the Federal Reserve (Fed) stimulus, bidding for a stronger USD.
Top news this week
New Zealand: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Q/Q.
I expect figures to come in at 0.3% (previous figure was 0.9%).
HSBC flash China manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMI)
I expect figures to come in at 50.2.
German flash China manufacturing PMI
I expect figures to come in at 54.6.
Long NZDUSD at 0.8220
On the H1 chart, NZDUSD is moving into its key support level at 0.8220. Momentum for the Aussie is still to the downside, hence the crowded AUDNZD shorts could offer some support to the Kiwi's upside. Chinese reform to increase the personal wages also benefits the New Zealand's Dairy exports activities. Additionally, monetary policy for New Zealand is supportive of a stronger Kiwi as the central bank might raise the rates in 1H this year.
We will go long once prices retrace further to our support level at 0.8220. A stop loss of 50 pips is placed. We will have two targets on this trade, exiting the first position at 0.8270 and the second one at 0.8320.
Entry Price = 0.8220 Stop Loss = 0.8170 1st Profit = 0.8270 2nd Profit = 0.8320
NZDUSD H1 Chart: http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/fxpnzusd0120.jpg.
FXPRIMUS offers retail traders a level of trade execution, service quality and fund safety that are normally reserved only for the largest investors. Serving traders in 205 countries across 6 continents, FXPRIMUS combines an unmatched level of fund safety with regular independent audits of company financials and Straight Through Processing, top notch execution with tight spreads, prompt and responsive customer support, ISO 27001 certification in Information Security, ISO 9001:2008 certification in Quality Management and an industry-leading trader toolset that includes free access to powerful trader tools. FXPRIMUS truly is The Safest Place To Trade.
SYS-CON Events announced today TechTarget has been named “Media Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 18th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on June 7–9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY, and the 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. TechTarget is the Web’s leading destination for serious technology buyers researching and making enterprise technology decisions. Its extensive global networ...
May. 29, 2016 05:15 AM EDT Reads: 3,261
The IoTs will challenge the status quo of how IT and development organizations operate. Or will it? Certainly the fog layer of IoT requires special insights about data ontology, security and transactional integrity. But the developmental challenges are the same: People, Process and Platform. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Craig Sproule, CEO of Metavine, will demonstrate how to move beyond today's coding paradigm and share the must-have mindsets for removing complexity from the development proc...
May. 29, 2016 05:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,963
SYS-CON Events announced today that Commvault, a global leader in enterprise data protection and information management, has been named “Bronze Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 18th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on June 7–9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY, and the 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Commvault is a leading provider of data protection and information management...
May. 29, 2016 04:30 AM EDT Reads: 3,233
SYS-CON Events announced today that MangoApps will exhibit at SYS-CON's 18th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. MangoApps provides modern company intranets and team collaboration software, allowing workers to stay connected and productive from anywhere in the world and from any device. For more information, please visit https://www.mangoapps.com/.
May. 29, 2016 03:30 AM EDT Reads: 966
The essence of data analysis involves setting up data pipelines that consist of several operations that are chained together – starting from data collection, data quality checks, data integration, data analysis and data visualization (including the setting up of interaction paths in that visualization). In our opinion, the challenges stem from the technology diversity at each stage of the data pipeline as well as the lack of process around the analysis.
May. 29, 2016 02:45 AM EDT Reads: 1,485
Many banks and financial institutions are experimenting with containers in development environments, but when will they move into production? Containers are seen as the key to achieving the ultimate in information technology flexibility and agility. Containers work on both public and private clouds, and make it easy to build and deploy applications. The challenge for regulated industries is the cost and complexity of container security compliance. VM security compliance is already challenging, ...
May. 29, 2016 02:30 AM EDT Reads: 1,337
Designing IoT applications is complex, but deploying them in a scalable fashion is even more complex. A scalable, API first IaaS cloud is a good start, but in order to understand the various components specific to deploying IoT applications, one needs to understand the architecture of these applications and figure out how to scale these components independently. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Nara Rajagopalan is CEO of Accelerite, will discuss the fundamental architecture of IoT applications, ...
May. 29, 2016 02:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,323
In the rush to compete in the digital age, a successful digital transformation is essential, but many organizations are setting themselves up for failure. There’s a common misconception that the process is just about technology, but it’s not. It’s about your business. It shouldn’t be treated as an isolated IT project; it should be driven by business needs with the committed involvement of a range of stakeholders.
May. 29, 2016 01:45 AM EDT Reads: 2,629
SYS-CON Events announced today that Tintri Inc., a leading producer of VM-aware storage (VAS) for virtualization and cloud environments, will exhibit at the 18th International CloudExpo®, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, New York, and the 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
May. 29, 2016 01:30 AM EDT Reads: 2,474
Enterprise networks are complex. Moreover, they were designed and deployed to meet a specific set of business requirements at a specific point in time. But, the adoption of cloud services, new business applications and intensifying security policies, among other factors, require IT organizations to continuously deploy configuration changes. Therefore, enterprises are looking for better ways to automate the management of their networks while still leveraging existing capabilities, optimizing perf...
May. 29, 2016 01:15 AM EDT Reads: 1,351
In his session at 18th Cloud Expo, Bruce Swann, Senior Product Marketing Manager at Adobe, will discuss how the Adobe Marketing Cloud can help marketers embrace opportunities for personalized, relevant and real-time customer engagement across offline (direct mail, point of sale, call center) and digital (email, website, SMS, mobile apps, social networks, connected objects). Bruce Swann has more than 15 years of experience working with digital marketing disciplines like web analytics, social med...
May. 29, 2016 01:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,405
A strange thing is happening along the way to the Internet of Things, namely far too many devices to work with and manage. It has become clear that we'll need much higher efficiency user experiences that can allow us to more easily and scalably work with the thousands of devices that will soon be in each of our lives. Enter the conversational interface revolution, combining bots we can literally talk with, gesture to, and even direct with our thoughts, with embedded artificial intelligence, wh...
May. 29, 2016 12:45 AM EDT Reads: 2,052
SYS-CON Events announced today that EastBanc Technologies will exhibit at SYS-CON's 18th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. EastBanc Technologies has been working at the frontier of technology since 1999. Today, the firm provides full-lifecycle software development delivering flexible technology solutions that seamlessly integrate with existing systems – whether on premise or cloud. EastBanc Technologies partners with p...
May. 28, 2016 11:00 PM EDT Reads: 2,376
SYS-CON Events announced today that AppNeta, the leader in performance insight for business-critical web applications, will exhibit and present at SYS-CON's @DevOpsSummit at Cloud Expo New York, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. AppNeta is the only application performance monitoring (APM) company to provide solutions for all applications – applications you develop internally, business-critical SaaS applications you use and the networks that deli...
May. 28, 2016 10:00 PM EDT Reads: 2,577
SYS-CON Events announced today BZ Media LLC has been named “Media Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. BZ Media LLC is a high-tech media company that produces technical conferences and expositions, and publishes a magazine, newsletters and websites in the software development, SharePoint, mobile development and Commercial Drone markets.
May. 28, 2016 07:00 PM EDT Reads: 3,640