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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China Increased in December

BEIJING, Jan. 22, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.4 percent in December. The index stands at 278.8 (2004 = 100), following a 1.3 percent increase in November and a 0.8 percent increase in October. Two of the six components contributed positively to the index in December.

Says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing: "The China LEI decelerated sharply in December, posting its lowest monthly growth rate in nine months. Credit creation alone supported the LEI, a symptom of how credit-reliant growth has become.  The moderation in the LEI, along with a potential deleveraging effort by the central bank in the coming months, points to weaker economic conditions in 2014."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.7 percent in December to 254.5 (2004 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in both November and October. All five components contributed positively to the index in December.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People's Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People's Bank of China
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics) 
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2013

6-month


Oct

Nov

Dec

Jun to Dec









Leading Economic Index (LEI)

274.1

p  

277.6

p  

278.8

p


   Percent Change  

0.8

p  

1.3

p  

0.4

p  

5.7

   Diffusion  

75.0


50.0


33.3


100.0









Coincident Economic Index (CEI)  

250.6

p  

252.7

p  

254.5

p


   Percent Change  

0.8

p  

0.8

p  

0.7

p  

4.9

   Diffusion  

80.0


100.0


100.0


100.0









n.a. Not available    p Preliminary    r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board      All Rights Reserved

 

SOURCE The Conference Board

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