Click here to close now.




















Welcome!

News Feed Item

Eight-Year Global Economic Expansion Expected Says BNY Mellon's Richard Hoey

Global Economic Growth Should Accelerate in 2014, 2015 and 2016

NEW YORK and LONDON, Jan. 23, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- A long expansion in the global and U.S. economy is expected to last for a total of eight years (2009 to 2017) according to BNY Mellon Chief Economist Richard Hoey in his most recent Economic Update entitled, "Eight-Year Economic Expansion."  Global GDP growth should accelerate by one-half to three-quarters of one percent faster than in 2012 and 2013.

"Because the global and U.S. economy grew at only a slow pace since the recession low in mid-2009, the upsurge of inflation that one would normally expect to occur after many years of economic expansion has not occurred," Hoey says.  "As a result, developed world monetary policy is not poised to become aggressively restrictive in order to stifle inflation any time soon, but rather can remain stimulative for an extended period of time.  It is true that the central banks of the U.S., Japan and the Eurozone are worried about inflation, but they are worried that inflation is too low."

While Hoey believes that inflation will rise eventually, he thinks it will drift higher only gradually over the coming years and that governments and central banks will be tolerant of that gradual upward drift in inflation. 

"We expect that a gradual upward drift in wage inflation, core inflation and reported inflation over the next several years is likely to be well-tolerated by (1) public opinion, (2) governments and (3) central banks," says Hoey.  "In the U.S., it has been three and a half decades since the double-digit inflation peak in 1980.  The share of labor compensation in GDP is near the lowest level in half a century.  In that context, a gradual upward drift in domestic wage inflation over the next several years should be well-tolerated by most and welcomed by many."

Other Economic Update findings include:

3 PHASES OF U.S. 8-YEAR ECONOMIC EXPANSION – Hoey believes that the U.S. economy is in a long "eight-year economic expansion" (2009-2017), with three phases: (1) four years of growth averaging about 2%, which ended in mid-2013, (2) a minimum of three years of growth averaging about 3% and (3) a slower pace of growth in the final quarters of the eight-year expansion. 

SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC EXPANSION IN THE EUROZONE – While Hoey cites long-term Eurozone challenges, including an aging demographic, high energy prices, excess debt, an elevated currency due to its current account surplus and a fragile financial system in peripheral Europe, he expects a sustainable economic expansion in the Eurozone, with the pace of real GDP growth in 2014 in the 1% to 1.5% range. 

UNCERTAIN LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR JAPAN – While Japan faces a "very choppy year in 2014" due to the increase in the value-added tax scheduled for April 1, Hoey expects sharply declining economic activity for three or four months, followed by renewed expansion.  Hoey is more uncertain about the long-term outlook, given challenging demographics and debt ratios. 

GRADUAL ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA – Hoey believes that the most complex issue in the global outlook for 2014 is the Chinese economic and financial outlook.  Stating that the Chinese government has a choice whether to rebalance the economy and financial system gradually or rapidly, Hoey expects Chinese 2014 economic growth can persist gradually at about the same pace as in 2013, roughly 7.5%. 

"Overall, we believe that global economic growth should accelerate in 2014, 2015 and 2016 to a growth rate one-half to three-quarters of 1% faster than in 2012 and 2013," Hoey concludes.  "We expect an 'eight-year economic expansion' in the global economy and the U.S. economy."

See http://www.bnymellon.com/foresight/pdf/update.pdf  for Hoey's complete Economic Outlook.    

Notes to Editors:

BNY Mellon Investment Management is one of the world's leading investment management organizations and one of the top U.S. wealth managers, with $1.6 trillion in assets under management. It encompasses BNY Mellon's affiliated investment management firms, wealth management services and global distribution companies. More information can be found at www.bnymellon.com.

BNY Mellon is a global investments company dedicated to helping its clients manage and service their financial assets throughout the investment lifecycle. Whether providing financial services for institutions, corporations or individual investors, BNY Mellon delivers informed investment management and investment services in 35 countries and more than 100 markets. As of December 31, 2013, BNY Mellon had $27.6 trillion in assets under custody and/or administration, and $1.6 trillion in assets under management. BNY Mellon can act as a single point of contact for clients looking to create, trade, hold, manage, service, distribute or restructure investments. BNY Mellon is the corporate brand of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE: BK). Additional information is available on www.bnymellon.com, or follow us on Twitter @BNYMellon.

All information source BNY Mellon as of Dec. 31, 2013. This press release is qualified for issuance in the UK, Europe and US and is for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer or solicitation of securities or investment services or an endorsement thereof in any jurisdiction or in any circumstance in which such offer or solicitation is unlawful or not authorized. Any views and opinions contained in this document are those of the author as at the date of issue; are subject to change and should not be taken as investment advice. BNYMAMI and its affiliates are not responsible for any subsequent investment advice given based on the information supplied. This press release is issued by BNY Mellon Investment Management (US) and BNY Mellon Asset Management International Limited (ex-US) to members of the financial press and media and the information contained herein should not be construed as investment advice.  Past performance is not a guide to future performance.  The value of investments and the income from them is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise due to stock market and currency movements.  When you sell your investment you may get back less than you originally invested. Registered office of BNY Mellon Asset Management International Limited: BNY Mellon Centre, 160 Queen Victoria Street, London, EC4V 4LA. Registered in England no. 1118580. Authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. A BNY Mellon Company.                                                                                                         

Contact:

Patrice Kozlowski

Sarah Deutscher


+1 212 922 6030

+44 20 763 2744


[email protected]

[email protected]

 

 

 

SOURCE BNY Mellon

More Stories By PR Newswire

Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Latest Stories
Cloud and datacenter migration innovator AppZero has joined the Microsoft Enterprise Cloud Alliance Program. AppZero is a fast, flexible way to move Windows Server applications from any source machine – physical or virtual – to any destination server, in any cloud or datacenter, using its patented container technology. AppZero’s container is also called a Virtual Application Appliance (VAA). To facilitate Microsoft Azure onboarding, AppZero has two purpose-built offerings: AppZero SP for Azure,...
WSM International, the pioneer and leader in server migration services, has announced an agreement with WHOA.com, a leader in providing secure public, private and hybrid cloud computing services. Under terms of the agreement, WSM will provide migration services to WHOA.com customers to relocate some or all of their applications, digital assets, and other computing workloads to WHOA.com enterprise-class, secure cloud infrastructure. The migration services include detailed evaluation and planning...
This Enterprise Strategy Group lab validation report of the NEC Express5800/R320 server with Intel® Xeon® processor presents the benefits of 99.999% uptime NEC fault-tolerant servers that lower overall virtualized server total cost of ownership. This report also includes survey data on the significant costs associated with system outages impacting enterprise and web applications. Click Here to Download Report Now!
IBM’s Blue Box Cloud, powered by OpenStack, is now available in any of IBM’s globally integrated cloud data centers running SoftLayer infrastructure. Less than 90 days after its acquisition of Blue Box, IBM has integrated its Blue Box Cloud Dedicated private-cloud-as-a-service into its broader portfolio of OpenStack® based solutions. The announcement, made today at the OpenStack Silicon Valley event, further highlights IBM’s continued support to deliver OpenStack solutions across all cloud depl...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Pythian, a global IT services company specializing in helping companies leverage disruptive technologies to optimize revenue-generating systems, has been named “Bronze Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 17th Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Founded in 1997, Pythian is a global IT services company that helps companies compete by adopting disruptive technologies such as cloud, Big Data, advance...
Consumer IoT applications provide data about the user that just doesn’t exist in traditional PC or mobile web applications. This rich data, or “context,” enables the highly personalized consumer experiences that characterize many consumer IoT apps. This same data is also providing brands with unprecedented insight into how their connected products are being used, while, at the same time, powering highly targeted engagement and marketing opportunities. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Nathan Trel...
While many app developers are comfortable building apps for the smartphone, there is a whole new world out there. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Narayan Sainaney, Co-founder and CTO of Mojio, will discuss how the business case for connected car apps is growing and, with open platform companies having already done the heavy lifting, there really is no barrier to entry.
WebRTC has had a real tough three or four years, and so have those working with it. Only a few short years ago, the development world were excited about WebRTC and proclaiming how awesome it was. You might have played with the technology a couple of years ago, only to find the extra infrastructure requirements were painful to implement and poorly documented. This probably left a bitter taste in your mouth, especially when things went wrong.
SYS-CON Events announced today that G2G3 will exhibit at SYS-CON's @DevOpsSummit Silicon Valley, which will take place on November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Based on a collective appreciation for user experience, design, and technology, G2G3 is uniquely qualified and motivated to redefine how organizations and people engage in an increasingly digital world.
SYS-CON Events announced today that HPM Networks will exhibit at the 17th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. For 20 years, HPM Networks has been integrating technology solutions that solve complex business challenges. HPM Networks has designed solutions for both SMB and enterprise customers throughout the San Francisco Bay Area.
SYS-CON Events announced today the Containers & Microservices Bootcamp, being held November 3-4, 2015, in conjunction with 17th Cloud Expo, @ThingsExpo, and @DevOpsSummit at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. This is your chance to get started with the latest technology in the industry. Combined with real-world scenarios and use cases, the Containers and Microservices Bootcamp, led by Janakiram MSV, a Microsoft Regional Director, will include presentations as well as hands-on...
Through WebRTC, audio and video communications are being embedded more easily than ever into applications, helping carriers, enterprises and independent software vendors deliver greater functionality to their end users. With today’s business world increasingly focused on outcomes, users’ growing calls for ease of use, and businesses craving smarter, tighter integration, what’s the next step in delivering a richer, more immersive experience? That richer, more fully integrated experience comes ab...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Micron Technology, Inc., a global leader in advanced semiconductor systems, will exhibit at the 17th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Micron’s broad portfolio of high-performance memory technologies – including DRAM, NAND and NOR Flash – is the basis for solid state drives, modules, multichip packages and other system solutions. Backed by more than 35 years of tech...
Everyone talks about continuous integration and continuous delivery but those are just two ends of the pipeline. In the middle of DevOps is continuous testing (CT), and many organizations are struggling to implement continuous testing effectively. After all, without continuous testing there is no delivery. And Lab-As-A-Service (LaaS) enhances the CT with dynamic on-demand self-serve test topologies. CT together with LAAS make a powerful combination that perfectly serves complex software developm...
In today's digital world, change is the one constant. Disruptive innovations like cloud, mobility, social media, and the Internet of Things have reshaped the market and set new standards in customer expectations. To remain competitive, businesses must tap the potential of emerging technologies and markets through the rapid release of new products and services. However, the rigid and siloed structures of traditional IT platforms and processes are slowing them down – resulting in lengthy delivery ...