Welcome!

News Feed Item

Eight-Year Global Economic Expansion Expected Says BNY Mellon's Richard Hoey

Global Economic Growth Should Accelerate in 2014, 2015 and 2016

NEW YORK and LONDON, Jan. 23, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- A long expansion in the global and U.S. economy is expected to last for a total of eight years (2009 to 2017) according to BNY Mellon Chief Economist Richard Hoey in his most recent Economic Update entitled, "Eight-Year Economic Expansion."  Global GDP growth should accelerate by one-half to three-quarters of one percent faster than in 2012 and 2013.

"Because the global and U.S. economy grew at only a slow pace since the recession low in mid-2009, the upsurge of inflation that one would normally expect to occur after many years of economic expansion has not occurred," Hoey says.  "As a result, developed world monetary policy is not poised to become aggressively restrictive in order to stifle inflation any time soon, but rather can remain stimulative for an extended period of time.  It is true that the central banks of the U.S., Japan and the Eurozone are worried about inflation, but they are worried that inflation is too low."

While Hoey believes that inflation will rise eventually, he thinks it will drift higher only gradually over the coming years and that governments and central banks will be tolerant of that gradual upward drift in inflation. 

"We expect that a gradual upward drift in wage inflation, core inflation and reported inflation over the next several years is likely to be well-tolerated by (1) public opinion, (2) governments and (3) central banks," says Hoey.  "In the U.S., it has been three and a half decades since the double-digit inflation peak in 1980.  The share of labor compensation in GDP is near the lowest level in half a century.  In that context, a gradual upward drift in domestic wage inflation over the next several years should be well-tolerated by most and welcomed by many."

Other Economic Update findings include:

3 PHASES OF U.S. 8-YEAR ECONOMIC EXPANSION – Hoey believes that the U.S. economy is in a long "eight-year economic expansion" (2009-2017), with three phases: (1) four years of growth averaging about 2%, which ended in mid-2013, (2) a minimum of three years of growth averaging about 3% and (3) a slower pace of growth in the final quarters of the eight-year expansion. 

SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC EXPANSION IN THE EUROZONE – While Hoey cites long-term Eurozone challenges, including an aging demographic, high energy prices, excess debt, an elevated currency due to its current account surplus and a fragile financial system in peripheral Europe, he expects a sustainable economic expansion in the Eurozone, with the pace of real GDP growth in 2014 in the 1% to 1.5% range. 

UNCERTAIN LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR JAPAN – While Japan faces a "very choppy year in 2014" due to the increase in the value-added tax scheduled for April 1, Hoey expects sharply declining economic activity for three or four months, followed by renewed expansion.  Hoey is more uncertain about the long-term outlook, given challenging demographics and debt ratios. 

GRADUAL ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA – Hoey believes that the most complex issue in the global outlook for 2014 is the Chinese economic and financial outlook.  Stating that the Chinese government has a choice whether to rebalance the economy and financial system gradually or rapidly, Hoey expects Chinese 2014 economic growth can persist gradually at about the same pace as in 2013, roughly 7.5%. 

"Overall, we believe that global economic growth should accelerate in 2014, 2015 and 2016 to a growth rate one-half to three-quarters of 1% faster than in 2012 and 2013," Hoey concludes.  "We expect an 'eight-year economic expansion' in the global economy and the U.S. economy."

See http://www.bnymellon.com/foresight/pdf/update.pdf  for Hoey's complete Economic Outlook.    

Notes to Editors:

BNY Mellon Investment Management is one of the world's leading investment management organizations and one of the top U.S. wealth managers, with $1.6 trillion in assets under management. It encompasses BNY Mellon's affiliated investment management firms, wealth management services and global distribution companies. More information can be found at www.bnymellon.com.

BNY Mellon is a global investments company dedicated to helping its clients manage and service their financial assets throughout the investment lifecycle. Whether providing financial services for institutions, corporations or individual investors, BNY Mellon delivers informed investment management and investment services in 35 countries and more than 100 markets. As of December 31, 2013, BNY Mellon had $27.6 trillion in assets under custody and/or administration, and $1.6 trillion in assets under management. BNY Mellon can act as a single point of contact for clients looking to create, trade, hold, manage, service, distribute or restructure investments. BNY Mellon is the corporate brand of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE: BK). Additional information is available on www.bnymellon.com, or follow us on Twitter @BNYMellon.

All information source BNY Mellon as of Dec. 31, 2013. This press release is qualified for issuance in the UK, Europe and US and is for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer or solicitation of securities or investment services or an endorsement thereof in any jurisdiction or in any circumstance in which such offer or solicitation is unlawful or not authorized. Any views and opinions contained in this document are those of the author as at the date of issue; are subject to change and should not be taken as investment advice. BNYMAMI and its affiliates are not responsible for any subsequent investment advice given based on the information supplied. This press release is issued by BNY Mellon Investment Management (US) and BNY Mellon Asset Management International Limited (ex-US) to members of the financial press and media and the information contained herein should not be construed as investment advice.  Past performance is not a guide to future performance.  The value of investments and the income from them is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise due to stock market and currency movements.  When you sell your investment you may get back less than you originally invested. Registered office of BNY Mellon Asset Management International Limited: BNY Mellon Centre, 160 Queen Victoria Street, London, EC4V 4LA. Registered in England no. 1118580. Authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. A BNY Mellon Company.                                                                                                         

Contact:

Patrice Kozlowski

Sarah Deutscher


+1 212 922 6030

+44 20 763 2744


[email protected]

[email protected]

 

 

 

SOURCE BNY Mellon

More Stories By PR Newswire

Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Latest Stories
You know you need the cloud, but you’re hesitant to simply dump everything at Amazon since you know that not all workloads are suitable for cloud. You know that you want the kind of ease of use and scalability that you get with public cloud, but your applications are architected in a way that makes the public cloud a non-starter. You’re looking at private cloud solutions based on hyperconverged infrastructure, but you’re concerned with the limits inherent in those technologies.
Consumers increasingly expect their electronic "things" to be connected to smart phones, tablets and the Internet. When that thing happens to be a medical device, the risks and benefits of connectivity must be carefully weighed. Once the decision is made that connecting the device is beneficial, medical device manufacturers must design their products to maintain patient safety and prevent compromised personal health information in the face of cybersecurity threats. In his session at @ThingsExpo...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Massive Networks will exhibit at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Massive Networks mission is simple. To help your business operate seamlessly with fast, reliable, and secure internet and network solutions. Improve your customer's experience with outstanding connections to your cloud.
DevOps is under attack because developers don’t want to mess with infrastructure. They will happily own their code into production, but want to use platforms instead of raw automation. That’s changing the landscape that we understand as DevOps with both architecture concepts (CloudNative) and process redefinition (SRE). Rob Hirschfeld’s recent work in Kubernetes operations has led to the conclusion that containers and related platforms have changed the way we should be thinking about DevOps and...
Everything run by electricity will eventually be connected to the Internet. Get ahead of the Internet of Things revolution and join Akvelon expert and IoT industry leader, Sergey Grebnov, in his session at @ThingsExpo, for an educational dive into the world of managing your home, workplace and all the devices they contain with the power of machine-based AI and intelligent Bot services for a completely streamlined experience.
Because IoT devices are deployed in mission-critical environments more than ever before, it’s increasingly imperative they be truly smart. IoT sensors simply stockpiling data isn’t useful. IoT must be artificially and naturally intelligent in order to provide more value In his session at @ThingsExpo, John Crupi, Vice President and Engineering System Architect at Greenwave Systems, will discuss how IoT artificial intelligence (AI) can be carried out via edge analytics and machine learning techn...
FinTechs use the cloud to operate at the speed and scale of digital financial activity, but are often hindered by the complexity of managing security and compliance in the cloud. In his session at 20th Cloud Expo, Sesh Murthy, co-founder and CTO of Cloud Raxak, showed how proactive and automated cloud security enables FinTechs to leverage the cloud to achieve their business goals. Through business-driven cloud security, FinTechs can speed time-to-market, diminish risk and costs, maintain continu...
When shopping for a new data processing platform for IoT solutions, many development teams want to be able to test-drive options before making a choice. Yet when evaluating an IoT solution, it’s simply not feasible to do so at scale with physical devices. Building a sensor simulator is the next best choice; however, generating a realistic simulation at very high TPS with ease of configurability is a formidable challenge. When dealing with multiple application or transport protocols, you would be...
Existing Big Data solutions are mainly focused on the discovery and analysis of data. The solutions are scalable and highly available but tedious when swapping in and swapping out occurs in disarray and thrashing takes place. The resolution for thrashing through machine learning algorithms and support nomenclature is through simple techniques. Organizations that have been collecting large customer data are increasingly seeing the need to use the data for swapping in and out and thrashing occurs ...
As many know, the first generation of Cloud Management Platform (CMP) solutions were designed for managing virtual infrastructure (IaaS) and traditional applications. But that’s no longer enough to satisfy evolving and complex business requirements. In his session at 21st Cloud Expo, Scott Davis, Embotics CTO, will explore how next-generation CMPs ensure organizations can manage cloud-native and microservice-based application architectures, while also facilitating agile DevOps methodology. He wi...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Datera, that offers a radically new data management architecture, has been named "Exhibitor" of SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo ®, which will take place on Oct 31 - Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Datera is transforming the traditional datacenter model through modern cloud simplicity. The technology industry is at another major inflection point. The rise of mobile, the Internet of Things, data storage and Big...
When you focus on a journey from up-close, you look at your own technical and cultural history and how you changed it for the benefit of the customer. This was our starting point: too many integration issues, 13 SWP days and very long cycles. It was evident that in this fast-paced industry we could no longer afford this reality. We needed something that would take us beyond reducing the development lifecycles, CI and Agile methodologies. We made a fundamental difference, even changed our culture...
SYS-CON Events announced today that GrapeUp, the leading provider of rapid product development at the speed of business, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place October 31-November 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Grape Up is a software company, specialized in cloud native application development and professional services related to Cloud Foundry PaaS. With five expert teams that operate in various sectors of the market acr...
In the enterprise today, connected IoT devices are everywhere – both inside and outside corporate environments. The need to identify, manage, control and secure a quickly growing web of connections and outside devices is making the already challenging task of security even more important, and onerous. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Rich Boyer, CISO and Chief Architect for Security at NTT i3, discussed new ways of thinking and the approaches needed to address the emerging challenges of security i...
Blockchain is a shared, secure record of exchange that establishes trust, accountability and transparency across business networks. Supported by the Linux Foundation's open source, open-standards based Hyperledger Project, Blockchain has the potential to improve regulatory compliance, reduce cost as well as advance trade. Are you curious about how Blockchain is built for business? In her session at 21st Cloud Expo, René Bostic, Technical VP of the IBM Cloud Unit in North America, will discuss th...