Welcome!

News Feed Item

Northern Light Releases the Global Risk Index to Mark the World Economic Forum Davos Annual Meeting

Analysis Pegged to WEF Risk Categories Indicates the World Got Less Risky in 2013

BOSTON, Jan. 27, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Northern Light® marked the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting, concluded this weekend in Davos, Switzerland, with the release of the Northern Light's Global Risk Index (GRI).  This index, based on an analysis of WEF's 50 global risk categories, shows that overall the world is getting less risky, at least for now.

Using the first quarter of 2012 as the starting point with a Northern Light GRI of 100, the GRI peaked in Q4 of 2012 at 147, and declined steadily throughout last year reaching 85 by Q4 of 2013.  This finding is due in part to declining concern over chronic fiscal imbalances, particularly in Europe, over the course of 2013.

(Photo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20140127/PH53587 )

To calculate the GRI, Northern Light applies its MI Analyst™ text analytics to an index of over 20 million news articles aggregated from the Web and representing the world's business and technology media.  MI Analyst is Northern Light's text analytics solution optimized for strategic business analysis.  MI Analyst can perform the automated discovery of meaning from large repositories of documents such as news articles and research reports. 

The starting point for the Northern Light GRI is the WEF publically available annual report entitled "Global Risks."  The report identifies 50 global risks categories* and a panel of 469 economic and policy experts solicited by the WEF rates the likelihood and potential impact of each of the risk categories. 

Northern Light took each of the concepts of global risk as described in the WEF annual report and created algorithms that trolled the 20 million article news database looking for indications of the risk factors.  Then each risk factor was weighted for its volume in the news and by its potential impact as rated by the WEF panel of economic experts.  When a risk factor increases in its impact-weighted coverage, Northern Light increments the GRI up, and conversely decrements the GRI when a risk factor declines in impact-weighted coverage.

Using news and Web behavioral data to measure the risk of events is not a new concept. Academic research has validated the practice.  For example, in a paper in the February, 2013, issue of the ACM, Mining the Web to Predict Future Events (http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/um/people/horvitz/future_news_wsdm.pdf), Kira Radinsky of Technion-Israel Institute of Technology and Eric Horvitz or Microsoft Research undertook to mine news stories to predict the future and conclude that it is possible to do so.  In a similar vein, it has been widely reported that user queries on Google (http://www.google.org/flutrends/us/#US ) can predict local flu outbreaks.   

Of the 50 global risk categories analyzed by Northern Light for the GRI, three stand out as most important in the data on an impact-weighted volume basis.  Those three are Chronic Fiscal Imbalances, Terrorism, and Climate Change.  Together, these three contribute 60 percent of the total global risk as measured in the business and technology media.  Sovereign fiscal events drove the GRI in 2012 and 2013.  The index soared with the Eurozone crises at the end of 2012 and then ebbed when the crises was abated.  Interestingly, the fiscal cliff debate in the U.S. at the end of 2013 did not touch off a similar rise in the chatter about catastrophe.  Perception of the risks from terrorism and climate change, though high, were essentially unchanged during this time period.  Also worthy of note, the Boston Marathon terrorist attack in April of 2013 did increment up the perceived risk of terrorism, but it dropped again to about the pre-attack level by yearend, indicating the public did not alter its long term view of the risk based on one event.

"While the Global Risk Index does not predict specific events, since world leaders can act to avoid disaster if they choose to, it can measure the level of danger as perceived by the world's business and technology media, and can also monitor our collective achievements in dealing with the hazards," said C. David Seuss, Northern Light's CEO.  "Overall, despite the media success of doomsday prognosticators and reality TV shows, the journalists at the world's most clued-in publications are telling us that the world has moved to a less risky posture over the last 12 months.  I, for one, will sleep a little better."

Northern Light plans on issuing quarterly updates in the future to the Global Risk Index.

About Northern Light 
Northern Light has been providing strategic research portals, business research content, and search and text analytics technology to global enterprises since 1996.  Northern Light's current clients include Fortune 100 leaders across multiple industries such as information technology, life sciences, financial services, telecommunications, manufacturing, and consumer products. Headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts, Northern Light has unique content aggregation partnerships with more than 150 of the world's leading syndicated technology and industry research publishers, and, along with Lockheed Martin, is a charter member of the Center for Complex Systems and Enterprises at the Stevens Institute of Technology.

Media Contacts:


Sheri Larsen

David Domeshek

Northern Light Group LLC

Domeshek Strategic Communications

(617) 674-2074 ext 6

(508) 873-7068

Email

Email  

* The risk categories enumerated in the WEF 2012 report, on which Northern Light based its analysis, are:

Chronic Fiscal Imbalances

Economic Risks

Chronic Labour Market Imbalances

Economic Risks

Extreme Volatility in Energy and Agricultural Prices

Economic Risks

Hard Landing of an Emerging Economy

Economic Risks

Infrastructure Neglect

Economic Risks

Major Systematic Financial Failure

Economic Risks

Recurring Liquidity Crises

Economic Risks

Severe Income Disparity

Economic Risks

Unforeseen Negative Consequences of Regulations

Economic Risks

Unmanageable Inflation or Deflation

Economic Risks

Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria

Environmental Risks

Climate Change and Global Warming

Environmental Risks

Irremediable Pollution

Environmental Risks

Land and Waterway Use Mismanagement

Environmental Risks

Mismanaged Urbanization

Environmental Risks

Persistent Extreme Weather

Environmental Risks

Species Overexploitation and Biodiversity Decline

Environmental Risks

Unintended Consequence of Climate Change Mitigation

Environmental Risks

Unprecedented Geophysical Destruction

Environmental Risks

Vulnerability to Geomagnetic Solar Storms

Environmental Risks

Critical Fragile States

Geopolitical Risks

Diffusion of Weapons of Mass Destruction

Geopolitical Risks

Entrenched Organized Crime

Geopolitical Risks

Failure of Diplomatic Conflict Resolution

Geopolitical Risks

Global Governance Failure

Geopolitical Risks

Militarization of Space

Geopolitical Risks

Pervasive Entrenched Corruption

Geopolitical Risks

Terrorism

Geopolitical Risks

Unilateral Resource Nationalization

Geopolitical Risks

Widespread Illicit Trade

Geopolitical Risks

Backlash Against Globalization

Societal Risks

Food Shortage Crises

Societal Risks

Ineffective Drug Policies

Societal Risks

Management of Population Aging

Societal Risks

Rising Rates of Chronic Illness

Societal Risks

Rising Religious Fanaticism

Societal Risks

Unmanaged Migration (Illegal Immigration)

Societal Risks

Unsustainable Population Growth

Societal Risks

Vulnerability To Pandemics

Societal Risks

Water Supply Crises

Societal Risks

Cyber Attacks

Technological Risks

Digital Misinformation

Technological Risks

Failure of the intellectual property regime

Technological Risks

Massive Incident of Data Fraud or Theft

Technological Risks

Mineral Resource Supply Vulnerability

Technological Risks

Mineral Resource Supply Vulnerability

Technological Risks

Proliferation of Orbital Debris

Technological Risks

Unintended Consequences of Nanotechnology

Technological Risks

Unintended Consequence of Life Sciences Technologies

Technological Risks

Read more news from Northern Light.

SOURCE Northern Light

More Stories By PR Newswire

Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Latest Stories
Andi Mann, Chief Technology Advocate at Splunk, is an accomplished digital business executive with extensive global expertise as a strategist, technologist, innovator, marketer, and communicator. For over 30 years across five continents, he has built success with Fortune 500 corporations, vendors, governments, and as a leading research analyst and consultant.
Cloud-enabled transformation has evolved from cost saving measure to business innovation strategy -- one that combines the cloud with cognitive capabilities to drive market disruption. Learn how you can achieve the insight and agility you need to gain a competitive advantage. Industry-acclaimed CTO and cloud expert, Shankar Kalyana presents. Only the most exceptional IBMers are appointed with the rare distinction of IBM Fellow, the highest technical honor in the company. Shankar has also receive...
Most DevOps journeys involve several phases of maturity. Research shows that the inflection point where organizations begin to see maximum value is when they implement tight integration deploying their code to their infrastructure. Success at this level is the last barrier to at-will deployment. Storage, for instance, is more capable than where we read and write data. In his session at @DevOpsSummit at 20th Cloud Expo, Josh Atwell, a Developer Advocate for NetApp, will discuss the role and value...
Today, we have more data to manage than ever. We also have better algorithms that help us access our data faster. Cloud is the driving force behind many of the data warehouse advancements we have enjoyed in recent years. But what are the best practices for storing data in the cloud for machine learning and data science applications?
DXWorldEXPO LLC announced today that ICOHOLDER named "Media Sponsor" of Miami Blockchain Event by FinTechEXPO. ICOHOLDER gives detailed information and help the community to invest in the trusty projects. Miami Blockchain Event by FinTechEXPO has opened its Call for Papers. The two-day event will present 20 top Blockchain experts. All speaking inquiries which covers the following information can be submitted by email to [email protected] Miami Blockchain Event by FinTechEXPOalso offers sp...
DXWordEXPO New York 2018, colocated with CloudEXPO New York 2018 will be held November 11-13, 2018, in New York City and will bring together Cloud Computing, FinTech and Blockchain, Digital Transformation, Big Data, Internet of Things, DevOps, AI, Machine Learning and WebRTC to one location.
Bill Schmarzo, author of "Big Data: Understanding How Data Powers Big Business" and "Big Data MBA: Driving Business Strategies with Data Science" is responsible for guiding the technology strategy within Hitachi Vantara for IoT and Analytics. Bill brings a balanced business-technology approach that focuses on business outcomes to drive data, analytics and technology decisions that underpin an organization's digital transformation strategy.
DevOpsSummit New York 2018, colocated with CloudEXPO | DXWorldEXPO New York 2018 will be held November 11-13, 2018, in New York City. Digital Transformation (DX) is a major focus with the introduction of DXWorldEXPO within the program. Successful transformation requires a laser focus on being data-driven and on using all the tools available that enable transformation if they plan to survive over the long term.
@DevOpsSummit at Cloud Expo, taking place November 12-13 in New York City, NY, is co-located with 22nd international CloudEXPO | first international DXWorldEXPO and will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. The widespread success of cloud computing is driving the DevOps revolution in enterprise IT. Now as never before, development teams must communicate and collaborate in a dynamic, 24/7/365 environment. There is no time t...
Headquartered in Plainsboro, NJ, Synametrics Technologies has provided IT professionals and computer systems developers since 1997. Based on the success of their initial product offerings (WinSQL and DeltaCopy), the company continues to create and hone innovative products that help its customers get more from their computer applications, databases and infrastructure. To date, over one million users around the world have chosen Synametrics solutions to help power their accelerated business or per...
DXWorldEXPO LLC announced today that Kevin Jackson joined the faculty of CloudEXPO's "10-Year Anniversary Event" which will take place on November 11-13, 2018 in New York City. Kevin L. Jackson is a globally recognized cloud computing expert and Founder/Author of the award winning "Cloud Musings" blog. Mr. Jackson has also been recognized as a "Top 100 Cybersecurity Influencer and Brand" by Onalytica (2015), a Huffington Post "Top 100 Cloud Computing Experts on Twitter" (2013) and a "Top 50 C...
Charles Araujo is an industry analyst, internationally recognized authority on the Digital Enterprise and author of The Quantum Age of IT: Why Everything You Know About IT is About to Change. As Principal Analyst with Intellyx, he writes, speaks and advises organizations on how to navigate through this time of disruption. He is also the founder of The Institute for Digital Transformation and a sought after keynote speaker. He has been a regular contributor to both InformationWeek and CIO Insight...
When talking IoT we often focus on the devices, the sensors, the hardware itself. The new smart appliances, the new smart or self-driving cars (which are amalgamations of many ‘things'). When we are looking at the world of IoT, we should take a step back, look at the big picture. What value are these devices providing. IoT is not about the devices, its about the data consumed and generated. The devices are tools, mechanisms, conduits. This paper discusses the considerations when dealing with the...
They say multi-cloud is coming, but organizations are leveraging multiple clouds already. According to a study by 451 Research, only 21% of organizations were using a single cloud. If you've found yourself unprepared for the barrage of cloud services introduced in your organization, you will need to change your approach to engaging with the business and engaging with vendors. Look at technologies that are on the way and work with the internal players involved to have a plan in place when the ine...
Machine learning has taken residence at our cities' cores and now we can finally have "smart cities." Cities are a collection of buildings made to provide the structure and safety necessary for people to function, create and survive. Buildings are a pool of ever-changing performance data from large automated systems such as heating and cooling to the people that live and work within them. Through machine learning, buildings can optimize performance, reduce costs, and improve occupant comfort by ...