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Fragile Recovery - U.S. Housing Prices Slightly Advanced in Volatile 2013, Says Winans Investments

NOVATO, Calif., Jan. 28, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- 2013 was a mixed year for real estate. The first six months saw average home prices advance 11% as sales volume expanded 85% from the previous year. Then, a moderate rise in mortgage rates caused U.S. new home prices to decline from their post-recession high and finish the year with a slight 4% increase on contracting volume.

Winans Real Estate Index (New U.S. Homes)

 YTD Percentage Change since December 31, 2012:







Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1






Price

4.3%

6.0%

11%

0.2%






Sales

7.7%

3.9%

85%

54%






Inventory

6.0%

5.9%

3.7%

3.7%






30-yr Fixed Rate

4.7%

4.5%

4.1%

3.6%

 

As seen in the table above, a slight rise in 30-yr mortgage rates (coupled with tighter credit conditions) led to a significant decline in U.S. housing prices and sales activity during the last half of 2013.

"This roller coaster of volatility shows just how fragile today's real estate market is. The housing recoveries of 1971, 1982, and 1993 had sustained sales increases and housing inventory decreases in spite of mortgage interest rates well above 7%. It's one of the reasons we liquidated our positions in real estate investment trusts early last year," says Ken Winans, President of Winans Investments and creator of the Winans Real Estate Index.

The Winans Real Estate Index (WIREI) measures U.S. new home prices from 1830 to present day. More information on the Winans Real Estate Index can be found at http://www.winansinvestments.com or www.globalfinancialdata.com.

SOURCE Winans Investments

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