News Feed Item

FXPRIMUS Market Brief of the Week: How Low Can Aussie Go?

SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE -- (Marketwired) -- 01/29/14 -- In FXPRIMUS' Market Brief of The Week for 27 January, the brokerage firm's Senior Economist, Jimmy Zhu, discusses how the Chinese economy and next Federal Open Market Committee meeting may influence the market.

Economic Insights

Weak Chinese Economy and Coming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Could Threaten the Value of Aussie Dollar Again

Aussie traded below 0.87 last Friday afternoon against the Greenback, after the rising credit risk appeared in shadow banking. More regulations may arrive as Chinese government may carry its best effort to avoid default. We have been hearing some relative regulation aiming at the shadow banking sector, but none of these were officially confirmed by the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC). However we believe the recent WPM's case under mining was in CBRC's radar.

Conflicts are everywhere on how to deal with shadow banking in China. We put aside whether the government has enough power to crack down those activities even though we know there are many challenges. If the size of shadow banking decelerated, where is the growth coming from? The recovery of the western economies at this stage is still not strong enough to lift Chinese overseas shipping activities, based on the past six months reading of Chinese exports growth. We have to admit that most of the recovery in western economies is due to the monetary stimulus, benefiting the financial market more than main streets. In other words, demand remains soft. If exports can't help much, the Chinese economy will not grow to a satisfactory level in 2014 given much less local consumption.

China's potential shadow banking concerns not only drags the Aussie dollar, but negatively affects global sentiment as well. Weak manufacturing data in China could reflect subdued global demand. Last Friday, U.S. equities heavily sold off ahead of the key FOMC meeting this week. Dow index was down more than 300 points, booking the worst week since 2012 by losing 579 points, or 3.5%. Lack of fresh catalysts is the main reason triggering price pullbacks, instead of a crisis. Investors are paying full attention to how the Federal Reserve (Fed) elaborates the December payroll data, and whether they would postpone the "January tapering" until economic data returns to expectations.

Here are our expectations on how the market could react according to the FOMC meeting's decision under a few scenarios,

1.  If Fed continues to taper USD 10 billion, we could see equities rebound
    from the recent selling off, and Greenback would gain momentum as well.
2.  If Fed decides to "hold on" first, market could continue to sell off
    U.S. equities in near term, and Greenback shall tumble as well.

Trade Recommendation

USDJPY - Long When Price Rebounds to 101.90

Recent USDJPY rallied mainly reflected traders' mood to seek safe haven currencies such as "JPY" and "CHF", as both of these two rallied against most of the G10 currencies. We seldom experienced this kind of scenario last year due to sound global economic recovery.

However we remain our view that the recent USDJPY slump may offer investors an opportunity to buy the bottom pair, mainly due to,

1.  Seeking safe havens last week due to no fresh catalysts, instead of a
2.  Fed is likely to continue to taper next week, which is positive for the
    Greenback. (If they don't, we may consider adjusting our strategy.)
3.  Bank of Japan may act as early as April to counter domestic tax

Based on the H4 chart, the level of 101.90 could be the next support for USDJPY. We would go long if its price reaches this level.

Entry Price - 101.90
Stop Loss - 101.40
1st Target Price - 102.40
 2nd Target price - 102.90


FXPRIMUS offers retail traders a level of trade execution, service quality and fund safety that are normally reserved only for the largest investors. Serving traders in 205 countries across 6 continents FXPRIMUS combines an unmatched level of fund safety with regular independent audits of company financials and Straight Through Processing, top notch execution with tight spreads, prompt and responsive customer support, ISO 27001 certification in Information Security, ISO 9001:2008 certification in Quality Management and an industry-leading trader toolset that includes free access to powerful trader tools. FXPRIMUS truly is The Safest Place To Trade.

Add to Digg Bookmark with del.icio.us Add to Newsvine

[email protected]

More Stories By Marketwired .

Copyright © 2009 Marketwired. All rights reserved. All the news releases provided by Marketwired are copyrighted. Any forms of copying other than an individual user's personal reference without express written permission is prohibited. Further distribution of these materials is strictly forbidden, including but not limited to, posting, emailing, faxing, archiving in a public database, redistributing via a computer network or in a printed form.

Latest Stories
DXWorldEXPO LLC announced today that Dez Blanchfield joined the faculty of CloudEXPO's "10-Year Anniversary Event" which will take place on November 11-13, 2018 in New York City. Dez is a strategic leader in business and digital transformation with 25 years of experience in the IT and telecommunications industries developing strategies and implementing business initiatives. He has a breadth of expertise spanning technologies such as cloud computing, big data and analytics, cognitive computing, m...
Digital Transformation and Disruption, Amazon Style - What You Can Learn. Chris Kocher is a co-founder of Grey Heron, a management and strategic marketing consulting firm. He has 25+ years in both strategic and hands-on operating experience helping executives and investors build revenues and shareholder value. He has consulted with over 130 companies on innovating with new business models, product strategies and monetization. Chris has held management positions at HP and Symantec in addition to ...
DXWorldEXPO LLC announced today that Kevin Jackson joined the faculty of CloudEXPO's "10-Year Anniversary Event" which will take place on November 11-13, 2018 in New York City. Kevin L. Jackson is a globally recognized cloud computing expert and Founder/Author of the award winning "Cloud Musings" blog. Mr. Jackson has also been recognized as a "Top 100 Cybersecurity Influencer and Brand" by Onalytica (2015), a Huffington Post "Top 100 Cloud Computing Experts on Twitter" (2013) and a "Top 50 C...
Cloud-enabled transformation has evolved from cost saving measure to business innovation strategy -- one that combines the cloud with cognitive capabilities to drive market disruption. Learn how you can achieve the insight and agility you need to gain a competitive advantage. Industry-acclaimed CTO and cloud expert, Shankar Kalyana presents. Only the most exceptional IBMers are appointed with the rare distinction of IBM Fellow, the highest technical honor in the company. Shankar has also receive...
Enterprises have taken advantage of IoT to achieve important revenue and cost advantages. What is less apparent is how incumbent enterprises operating at scale have, following success with IoT, built analytic, operations management and software development capabilities - ranging from autonomous vehicles to manageable robotics installations. They have embraced these capabilities as if they were Silicon Valley startups.
Digital transformation is about embracing digital technologies into a company's culture to better connect with its customers, automate processes, create better tools, enter new markets, etc. Such a transformation requires continuous orchestration across teams and an environment based on open collaboration and daily experiments. In his session at 21st Cloud Expo, Alex Casalboni, Technical (Cloud) Evangelist at Cloud Academy, explored and discussed the most urgent unsolved challenges to achieve fu...
Poor data quality and analytics drive down business value. In fact, Gartner estimated that the average financial impact of poor data quality on organizations is $9.7 million per year. But bad data is much more than a cost center. By eroding trust in information, analytics and the business decisions based on these, it is a serious impediment to digital transformation.
Daniel Jones is CTO of EngineerBetter, helping enterprises deliver value faster. Previously he was an IT consultant, indie video games developer, head of web development in the finance sector, and an award-winning martial artist. Continuous Delivery makes it possible to exploit findings of cognitive psychology and neuroscience to increase the productivity and happiness of our teams.
As DevOps methodologies expand their reach across the enterprise, organizations face the daunting challenge of adapting related cloud strategies to ensure optimal alignment, from managing complexity to ensuring proper governance. How can culture, automation, legacy apps and even budget be reexamined to enable this ongoing shift within the modern software factory? In her Day 2 Keynote at @DevOpsSummit at 21st Cloud Expo, Aruna Ravichandran, VP, DevOps Solutions Marketing, CA Technologies, was jo...
The standardization of container runtimes and images has sparked the creation of an almost overwhelming number of new open source projects that build on and otherwise work with these specifications. Of course, there's Kubernetes, which orchestrates and manages collections of containers. It was one of the first and best-known examples of projects that make containers truly useful for production use. However, more recently, the container ecosystem has truly exploded. A service mesh like Istio addr...
Predicting the future has never been more challenging - not because of the lack of data but because of the flood of ungoverned and risk laden information. Microsoft states that 2.5 exabytes of data are created every day. Expectations and reliance on data are being pushed to the limits, as demands around hybrid options continue to grow.
Business professionals no longer wonder if they'll migrate to the cloud; it's now a matter of when. The cloud environment has proved to be a major force in transitioning to an agile business model that enables quick decisions and fast implementation that solidify customer relationships. And when the cloud is combined with the power of cognitive computing, it drives innovation and transformation that achieves astounding competitive advantage.
Digital Transformation: Preparing Cloud & IoT Security for the Age of Artificial Intelligence. As automation and artificial intelligence (AI) power solution development and delivery, many businesses need to build backend cloud capabilities. Well-poised organizations, marketing smart devices with AI and BlockChain capabilities prepare to refine compliance and regulatory capabilities in 2018. Volumes of health, financial, technical and privacy data, along with tightening compliance requirements by...
As IoT continues to increase momentum, so does the associated risk. Secure Device Lifecycle Management (DLM) is ranked as one of the most important technology areas of IoT. Driving this trend is the realization that secure support for IoT devices provides companies the ability to deliver high-quality, reliable, secure offerings faster, create new revenue streams, and reduce support costs, all while building a competitive advantage in their markets. In this session, we will use customer use cases...
Evan Kirstel is an internationally recognized thought leader and social media influencer in IoT (#1 in 2017), Cloud, Data Security (2016), Health Tech (#9 in 2017), Digital Health (#6 in 2016), B2B Marketing (#5 in 2015), AI, Smart Home, Digital (2017), IIoT (#1 in 2017) and Telecom/Wireless/5G. His connections are a "Who's Who" in these technologies, He is in the top 10 most mentioned/re-tweeted by CMOs and CIOs (2016) and have been recently named 5th most influential B2B marketeer in the US. H...