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January SAAR to Hit 15.6 According to TrueCar; 2014 New Vehicle Sales Expected to be up 2.7 Year-Over-Year

Estimated incentive spending decreases to $2,452 per vehicle

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Jan. 29, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, the negotiation-free car buying platform, today released its January 2014 sales and incentives forecast, which shows the following:

  • For January 2014, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) are expected to be 1,050,000 units, up 0.9 percent from January 2013.
  • The January 2014 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate ("SAAR") of 15.6 million new vehicle sales, up 2.7 percent over January 2013.
  • Share of retail sales are up 3.5 percent compared to January 2013 and down 0.8 percent from December 2013.
  • Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 17.9 percent of total industry sales in January 2014.
  • The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,452 in January 2014, a decrease of 3.1 percent from January 2013 and a decrease of 10.4 percent from December 2013.
  • Used car sales* are estimated to be 4,007,000. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:2.8 for January 2014.

"January has been moving along at a steady pace," said Larry Dominique, President of ALG and Executive Vice President of TrueCar. "Sales are up slightly over last January, which is a positive start to the year."

Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for January 2014:

Unit Sales

Manufacturer

Unit Sales Forecast

Chrysler

121,000

Ford

153,000

GM

190,000

Honda

98,000

Hyundai/Kia

81,000

Nissan

98,000

Toyota

155,000

Volkswagen Group

43,000

Industry

1,049,500

Market Share

Manufacturer

January 2014 Forecast

December 2013

January 2013

Chrysler

11.5%

11.8%

11.3%

Ford

14.6%

15.6%

15.7%

GM

18.1%

17.0%

18.7%

Honda

9.3%

10.0%

9.0%

Hyundai/Kia

7.7%

7.1%

7.7%

Nissan

9.3%

8.1%

7.8%

Toyota

14.8%

14.1%

15.2%

Volkswagen Group

4.1%

4.0%

4.1%

Percentage Point Change in Market Share – January 2014 vs. January 2013

Manufacturer

Percentage Point Change

Ford

-1.1%

GM

-0.6%

Toyota

-0.4%

Volkswagen Group

0.0%

Hyundai/Kia

0.0%

Chrysler

0.3%

Honda

0.3%

Nissan

1.6%

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer

January 2014 Forecast

% Change vs. December 2013

% Change vs. January 2013

Forecast Total Incentive Spending

Chrysler

$2,623

-10.0%

-19.6%

$350,781,077

Ford

$3,123

-8.1%

14.6%

$500,532,417

GM

$3,376

-7.5%

-3.6%

$610,802,191

Honda

$1,769

-8.4%

12.6%

$231,678,058

Hyundai/Kia

$1,649

-0.6%

8.6%

$162,239,608

Nissan

$2,572

-8.4%

7.2%

$257,805,114

Toyota

$1,843

-10.3%

0.4%

$337,518,045

Volkswagen Group

$2,101

-11.3%

-0.4%

$101,023,096

Other

$2,368

-8.5%

-8.3%

$355,784,521

Industry

$2,452

-10.4%

-3.1%

$2,908,164,127

"Incentive spend is down short-term, with Chrysler and GM having reduced incentives," said Dominique. "That said, incentives and fleet will quickly become attractive levers to pull if OEMs realize they've overreached on their sales goals."  

TrueCar bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts and CPI).  TrueCar does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.

*Used car sales figures include sales from franchise dealerships, independent dealerships and private party sales

About TrueCar

TrueCar is the negotiation-free car buying platform. TrueCar empowers car buyers by giving them transparent insight into what others actually paid, upfront pricing info, a guaranteed savings certificate and a connection to a trusted TrueCar Certified Dealer to seamlessly complete the car purchase. The reality is buying a car is painful and buyers fear they are going to overpay. TrueCar's transparent upfront pricing information and guaranteed savings certificate make the car buying process simple so buyers never overpay. TrueCar's mission is to prove that truth and transparency are a more profitable way of doing business -- starting with cars. TrueCar users and its Certified Dealers have completed over 1 million automobile transactions since inception, and nearly 400,000 in 2013. Its national network of more than 7,000 TrueCar Certified Dealers is committed to providing negotiation-free savings for some of the country's largest membership and service organizations, including AARP, American Express, AAA, USAA and Consumer Reports. Note: Not all program features are available in all states.  Go to www.truecar.com for program details. TrueCar is a privately held company headquartered in Santa Monica, Calif., with offices in Santa Barbara, Calif., San Francisco, Calif., and Austin, Texas. 

(Logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20110118/LA31413LOGO)

SOURCE TrueCar.com

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