|By PR Newswire||
|February 11, 2014 09:30 AM EST||
CHICAGO, Feb. 11, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Today, Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights Features: SPDR Gold Shares (AMEX:GLD-Free Report), iShares Silver Trust (AMEX:SLV-Free Report), Rio Tinto PLC (NYSE:RIO-Free Report), Stillwater Mining Co (NYSE:SWC-Free Report) and Franco Nevada Corp (NYSE:FNV-Free Report).
Pay Mind to the Miners
Sorry King Midas, but nobody cares about what you touch anymore. That shimmery stuff you melt down to make rings and things has lost its luster. Gold was the talk of the town around $1,900 an ounce but since the collapse in prices now it's an afterthought. Which to me is baffling. I think that the real reason gold prices are not that high is the same reason people think that gold should be high. It's all the "worthless" fiat currencies of the world. Globally we are printing money and devaluing currency. So the only thing on Earth that should be worth any money is a hard asset like gold, right? Sounds good in theory. But who are the major players in the gold market? Who buys the most gold? Central banks do. So now if your currency has depreciated then guess what you can't do? Buy as much gold as you used to. And the cycle continues...
I am not bold nor crazy enough to come out and say that the tough times are behind us for the precious metals. I do, however, offer up a couple of charts that may change a few minds. First take a look at the gold chart using the exchange traded fund SPDR Gold Shares (AMEX:GLD-Free Report). From the October 2012 relative high near $175 we can draw a trend line channel across the first few tops. This trend was broken to the downside in April 2013, rendering these trend lines obsolete for the time being. Just for giggles though, let's extend these through today. More on this later.
Now let's fast forward to price action since September 2013. We can draw another channel coming down across the tops through January 2014 only to be violated at the beginning of February by continued bullish price action. This technical picture looks a lot different given this new set of circumstances. The chart changes from a downward death spiral to dead cat bounce with a side of optimism. Price sits above the 25x5 SMA and, more importantly, above the most recent downward price channel. To quote the great Jim Carey, "So you're saying there's a chance!" The next resistance sits at the extension of the downward trend line from the October 2012 high.
You can't talk gold without mentioning its hard-working, industrious, albeit less glamorous and attractive brother silver. On the charts silver and gold have a very high correlation. Economically this never really made sense to me as they have to very different sets of supply and demand determinants. Silver has industrial uses far above and beyond what gold has. Gold pretty much gets mined, shined, and showed off or buried. Silver is used to make all sorts parts from light switches to soldering applications to water purification. Regardless of what theory suggests, the chart moves pretty much in step with gold. As such, the silver chart has nearly the same pattern as gold but has not had the breakout yet from the major trend line resistance. Here we use the iShares Silver Trust (AMEX:SLV-Free Report) and can see it trading in the $19 handle down from an October 2012 high in the low $30s and a far cry from the all-time highs seen in April of 2011 in the $48 range.
Gold has a relatively high correlation with many metals, not just silver. My thinking is that if we see a recovery in gold prices it will spill over to silver, platinum, copper, aluminum and a host of other metals to a certain degree.
Entertain my wild ideas for a minute here. What if the pundits screaming "Gold is dead" are wrong? What if gold has seen the worst of its decline? What if the recent price action is the beginning of a gradual recovery in prices and not a dead cat bounce? What if there was a way to profit from this crazy notion other than buying GLD or SLV?
If you have never paid any mind to the miners then you might like what you're about to hear. By investing in a diversified mining operation we stand to make profits on a recovery in gold and silver prices but will still be insulated by exposure to other metals so it is not a "make or break" proposition. Further, we can use the Zacks Rank to uncover mining companies that have had the most positive earnings estimate revisions. Given the fact that miners have been relatively beat up during last year's market rally we have the chance to find a few real bargains.
Rio Tinto PLC (NYSE:RIO-Free Report) is an international mining company with interests in mining for gold, silver, copper, coal, iron ore, uranium, zinc and a host of other metals. Fundamentally it's a Zacks #2 Rank. A quick look at the price and consensus chart gives me hope for the future. You can see the price tracked the consensus estimates and revisions relatively closely for the past four years. Estimates have slid along with prices for gold and silver since Q2 2011 and the stock sold off as a result. The recent consensus estimates have seen a bounce off the bottom as prices appear to be stabilizing. Should this trend continue it is very bullish for shares of RIO.
The technical chart on RIO reads bullish as well. The recent range from $51 to $57 looks to me like a consolidation after a big move from the low $40s. A break above $57 with volume would be a very bullish breakout. Failure to breakout would not be a sell signal but rather a chance to get in near the bottom of the recent consolidation range from $51-$53. A breakdown below $51 means you look for another stock to buy.
There is something about the name of this stock that soothes my nerves. Stillwater Mining Co (NYSE:SWC-Free Report) is engaged in mining operations in the Stillwater Complex in southern Montana. The area contains gold, copper, nickel, chromium, platinum and palladium. SWC is a Zacks #1 Rank and its last earning surprise was a whopping 425%. I want to show the price and consensus chart because it shares an important characteristic with RIO. Recent earnings revisions have seen upwards momentum for the first time since gold and silver began their decline. I think that a pattern is beginning to develop amongst analysts which only further supports the idea that gold may have already bottomed.
The price chart is temporarily bearish but that could change in a few days. I like the fact that the stochastics are oversold and awaiting a buy signal. I like the pull back and support at $12. What I don't like is the speed of the fall from mid-January to today and I don't like seeing the stock below the 25x5. This trade set up could take a couple weeks. I would need to see the stock get above the 25x5, pull back to it, then see a stochastic buy before I got on board. This is a perfect case of great fundamentals but I'll pass on the technicals right now. In mid-December the stock set up perfectly for a buy around $11 which took the stock near $14. But it is not mid-December, it's February so I would be patient for better technical timing.
If the first two examples were dipping your toes in the water on a possible gold rebound then this next stock is a cannonball from the high board. Franco Nevada Corp (NYSE:FNV-Free Report) is a gold focused royalty and stream company with some interests in platinum group metals. While this does not make it a 100% pure gold play, it does give it added risk to price movements in the base metal. The price and consensus chart looks the way you think it would given the other two examples. However, FNV has only been around since late 2011 so the chart is not as impactful. Being a newer operation, the analysts haven't quite figured things out and the estimates have been all over the place historically. Recently, upwards revisions of some magnitude have helped push FNV into a Zacks #2 Rank.
On my chart I like what I see. The stock pushed above resistance at $48 and had been consolidating. It rested firmly above the 25x5 while the 25x5 had a very positive slope. Stochastics were beginning to come down from overbought levels as the stock consolidated between $48 and $50. I would buy today's break out above $50. If you missed it, that's alright too, a better opportunity will come with a pull back to the 25x5 coupled by confirmation from the stochastics.
The bottom line is if you believe in a possible recovery in gold prices these three stocks are all good ideas. With a little bit of patience you can find favorable entry points that will offer up the best risk versus reward scenarios. If gold continues to unwind, hopefully the diversification in the first two stocks will cushion any downside and a wisely set stop loss will protect you on FNV. With the chart set up on gold and the earnings revisions by analysts I think there is a relatively strong case for at least a consolidation in gold prices if not a reversal of the long term down trend.
Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978. The later formation of the Zacks Rank, a proprietary stock picking system; continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Click here for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros.
Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/ZacksResearch
Join us on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/ZacksInvestmentResearch
Zacks Investment Research is under common control with affiliated entities (including a broker-dealer and an investment adviser), which may engage in transactions involving the foregoing securities for the clients of such affiliates.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit http://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
SOURCE Zacks Investment Research, Inc.
There are many considerations when moving applications from on-premise to cloud. It is critical to understand the benefits and also challenges of this migration. A successful migration will result in lower Total Cost of Ownership, yet offer the same or higher level of robustness. In his session at 15th Cloud Expo, Michael Meiner, an Engineering Director at Oracle, Corporation, analyzed a range of cloud offerings (IaaS, PaaS, SaaS) and discussed the benefits/challenges of migrating to each offe...
Aug. 3, 2015 07:30 AM EDT Reads: 180
Mobile, social, Big Data, and cloud have fundamentally changed the way we live. “Anytime, anywhere” access to data and information is no longer a luxury; it’s a requirement, in both our personal and professional lives. For IT organizations, this means pressure has never been greater to deliver meaningful services to the business and customers.
Aug. 3, 2015 07:15 AM EDT Reads: 227
In a recent research, analyst firm IDC found that the average cost of a critical application failure is $500,000 to $1 million per hour and the average total cost of unplanned application downtime is $1.25 billion to $2.5 billion per year for Fortune 1000 companies. In addition to the findings on the cost of the downtime, the research also highlighted best practices for development, testing, application support, infrastructure, and operations teams.
Aug. 3, 2015 07:00 AM EDT Reads: 194
Container technology is sending shock waves through the world of cloud computing. Heralded as the 'next big thing,' containers provide software owners a consistent way to package their software and dependencies while infrastructure operators benefit from a standard way to deploy and run them. Containers present new challenges for tracking usage due to their dynamic nature. They can also be deployed to bare metal, virtual machines and various cloud platforms. How do software owners track the usag...
Aug. 3, 2015 06:45 AM EDT Reads: 257
"We've just seen a huge influx of new partners coming into our ecosystem, and partners building unique offerings on top of our API set," explained Seth Bostock, Chief Executive Officer at IndependenceIT, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 16th Cloud Expo, held June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City.
Aug. 2, 2015 10:00 PM EDT Reads: 679
Digital Transformation is the ultimate goal of cloud computing and related initiatives. The phrase is certainly not a precise one, and as subject to hand-waving and distortion as any high-falutin' terminology in the world of information technology. Yet it is an excellent choice of words to describe what enterprise IT—and by extension, organizations in general—should be working to achieve. Digital Transformation means: handling all the data types being found and created in the organizat...
Aug. 2, 2015 06:00 PM EDT Reads: 1,129
SYS-CON Events announced today that HPM Networks will exhibit at the 17th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. For 20 years, HPM Networks has been integrating technology solutions that solve complex business challenges. HPM Networks has designed solutions for both SMB and enterprise customers throughout the San Francisco Bay Area.
Aug. 2, 2015 05:45 PM EDT Reads: 512
Chuck Piluso presented a study of cloud adoption trends and the power and flexibility of IBM Power and Pureflex cloud solutions. Prior to Secure Infrastructure and Services, Mr. Piluso founded North American Telecommunication Corporation, a facilities-based Competitive Local Exchange Carrier licensed by the Public Service Commission in 10 states, serving as the company's chairman and president from 1997 to 2000. Between 1990 and 1997, Mr. Piluso served as chairman & founder of International Te...
Aug. 2, 2015 04:00 PM EDT Reads: 426
The Software Defined Data Center (SDDC), which enables organizations to seamlessly run in a hybrid cloud model (public + private cloud), is here to stay. IDC estimates that the software-defined networking market will be valued at $3.7 billion by 2016. Security is a key component and benefit of the SDDC, and offers an opportunity to build security 'from the ground up' and weave it into the environment from day one. In his session at 16th Cloud Expo, Reuven Harrison, CTO and Co-Founder of Tufin,...
Aug. 2, 2015 03:00 PM EDT Reads: 549
SYS-CON Events announced today that MobiDev, a software development company, will exhibit at the 17th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. MobiDev is a software development company with representative offices in Atlanta (US), Sheffield (UK) and Würzburg (Germany); and development centers in Ukraine. Since 2009 it has grown from a small group of passionate engineers and business managers to a full-scale mobi...
Aug. 2, 2015 12:00 PM EDT Reads: 349
With SaaS use rampant across organizations, how can IT departments track company data and maintain security? More and more departments are commissioning their own solutions and bypassing IT. A cloud environment is amorphous and powerful, allowing you to set up solutions for all of your user needs: document sharing and collaboration, mobile access, e-mail, even industry-specific applications. In his session at 16th Cloud Expo, Shawn Mills, President and a founder of Green House Data, discussed h...
Aug. 2, 2015 11:45 AM EDT Reads: 481
For IoT to grow as quickly as analyst firms’ project, a lot is going to fall on developers to quickly bring applications to market. But the lack of a standard development platform threatens to slow growth and make application development more time consuming and costly, much like we’ve seen in the mobile space. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Mike Weiner, Product Manager of the Omega DevCloud with KORE Telematics Inc., discussed the evolving requirements for developers as IoT matures and conducte...
Aug. 2, 2015 11:15 AM EDT Reads: 357
One of the hottest areas in cloud right now is DRaaS and related offerings. In his session at 16th Cloud Expo, Dale Levesque, Disaster Recovery Product Manager with Windstream's Cloud and Data Center Marketing team, will discuss the benefits of the cloud model, which far outweigh the traditional approach, and how enterprises need to ensure that their needs are properly being met.
Aug. 2, 2015 09:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,698
In their session at 17th Cloud Expo, Hal Schwartz, CEO of Secure Infrastructure & Services (SIAS), and Chuck Paolillo, CTO of Secure Infrastructure & Services (SIAS), provide a study of cloud adoption trends and the power and flexibility of IBM Power and Pureflex cloud solutions. In his role as CEO of Secure Infrastructure & Services (SIAS), Hal Schwartz provides leadership and direction for the company.
Aug. 2, 2015 08:15 AM EDT Reads: 186
The Internet of Everything (IoE) brings together people, process, data and things to make networked connections more relevant and valuable than ever before – transforming information into knowledge and knowledge into wisdom. IoE creates new capabilities, richer experiences, and unprecedented opportunities to improve business and government operations, decision making and mission support capabilities.
Aug. 1, 2015 10:00 AM EDT Reads: 339