Welcome!

News Feed Item

iEmergent Announces 2014-2018 U.S. Mortgage Lending Forecasts

iEmergent, a Des Moines, Iowa-based market research and forecasting firm for the banking, mortgage and real estate industries, issued its most recent 2014 - 2018 U.S. Total Mortgage Volume Forecast today. The firm projects that refinance levels will drop considerably in 2014, challenging mortgage bankers and lenders to establish strong purchase lending strategies to mitigate the loss of refinance potential. Homeownership conditions in 2014 will facilitate a gain in purchase lending across most markets, but slow recovery fundamentals will remain the reality of future days. Highlights include:

       

-- 2014 Total Purchase Volume:

2.67 million loans for $612.3 billion

-- 2014 Refinance Volume Range:

1.75 million loans for $394.5 billion (low)

2.12 million loans for $477 billion (high)

-- 2014 Expected Total Mortgage Volume:

4.42 million loans for $1,006.8 billion (low)

4.78 million loans for $1,089.9 billion (high)

 

The projected 2014 purchase dollar volume of $612 Billion represents a 4.72% increase from estimated purchase dollar volume for 2013, although the change in purchase loan units is expected to be only 1.68%. However, the drastic projected decrease of more than 52% in refinance activity from the end-of-year estimate for 2013 will result in total mortgage reduction of an estimated 30.3% in mortgage units and 28.4% in mortgage dollar volume.

The total size of the available household pool for home purchase financing is similar to levels experienced in the mid- to late-1990s, prior to the dot-com bubble. More than 40% of all U.S. households are not part of the available pool because they are not qualified, able, willing or ready to purchase and finance a home.

“Home buying demand continues to be ‘penned-up,’ simply because household balance sheets of everyone but the top 15% are challenged by lagging employment, stagnant-to-falling household incomes, lack of available credit for home financing and poor credit scores, among other problems,” said Dennis Hedlund, President of iEmergent. “Consumer spending, which has always been a primary driver of our economy, has been muted since 2007 and is not yet positioned to be a force for growth. Unfortunately, as it lags, home buying lags along with it.”

Purchase originations have been languishing for more than 5 years, as many lenders stopped focusing on home buyers, due to the greater regulatory, compliance and repurchase risks associated with home lending and its potentially negative impact on future earnings. However, the lack of refinance opportunity projected for 2014 should change that.

“We believe that 2014 will be a solid year for growth in purchase lending across the board. In spite of countervailing upside and downside pressures, purchase lending volumes should benefit when refinance lending no longer ‘crowds-out’ the purchase money,” said Hedlund.

About iEmergent
Founded in 2000, Des Moines, Iowa-based iEmergent provides comprehensive, market-level mortgage lending forecasts, data and market analytics to the mortgage and real estate industries. The company offers multiple mortgage market intelligence products, including Mortgage MarketSmart, a cloud-based solution that helps lenders increase originations, improve efficiency and comply with lending regulations by using interactive maps and tools to apply iEmergent’s accurate, forward-looking and detailed mortgage market intelligence. For a more detailed 2014-2018 Mortgage Market Forecast report, please visit http://www.iemergent.com/resources.

More Stories By Business Wire

Copyright © 2009 Business Wire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Business Wire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Business Wire. Business Wire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Latest Stories
Qosmos has announced new milestones in the detection of encrypted traffic and in protocol signature coverage. Qosmos latest software can accurately classify traffic encrypted with SSL/TLS (e.g., Google, Facebook, WhatsApp), P2P traffic (e.g., BitTorrent, MuTorrent, Vuze), and Skype, while preserving the privacy of communication content. These new classification techniques mean that traffic optimization, policy enforcement, and user experience are largely unaffected by encryption. In respect wit...
"My role is working with customers, helping them go through this digital transformation. I spend a lot of time talking to banks, big industries, manufacturers working through how they are integrating and transforming their IT platforms and moving them forward," explained William Morrish, General Manager Product Sales at Interoute, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 18th Cloud Expo, held June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY.
Cloud computing is being adopted in one form or another by 94% of enterprises today. Tens of billions of new devices are being connected to The Internet of Things. And Big Data is driving this bus. An exponential increase is expected in the amount of information being processed, managed, analyzed, and acted upon by enterprise IT. This amazing is not part of some distant future - it is happening today. One report shows a 650% increase in enterprise data by 2020. Other estimates are even higher....
Internet of @ThingsExpo, taking place November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, is co-located with the 19th International Cloud Expo and will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world and ThingsExpo Silicon Valley Call for Papers is now open.
To leverage Continuous Delivery, enterprises must consider impacts that span functional silos, as well as applications that touch older, slower moving components. Managing the many dependencies can cause slowdowns. See how to achieve continuous delivery in the enterprise.
Today we can collect lots and lots of performance data. We build beautiful dashboards and even have fancy query languages to access and transform the data. Still performance data is a secret language only a couple of people understand. The more business becomes digital the more stakeholders are interested in this data including how it relates to business. Some of these people have never used a monitoring tool before. They have a question on their mind like “How is my application doing” but no id...
Kubernetes, Docker and containers are changing the world, and how companies are deploying their software and running their infrastructure. With the shift in how applications are built and deployed, new challenges must be solved. In his session at @DevOpsSummit at19th Cloud Expo, Sebastian Scheele, co-founder of Loodse, will discuss the implications of containerized applications/infrastructures and their impact on the enterprise. In a real world example based on Kubernetes, he will show how to ...
The 19th International Cloud Expo has announced that its Call for Papers is open. Cloud Expo, to be held November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, brings together Cloud Computing, Big Data, Internet of Things, DevOps, Digital Transformation, Microservices and WebRTC to one location. With cloud computing driving a higher percentage of enterprise IT budgets every year, it becomes increasingly important to plant your flag in this fast-expanding business opportuni...
SYS-CON Events announced today that eCube Systems, a leading provider of middleware modernization, integration, and management solutions, will exhibit at @DevOpsSummit at 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. eCube Systems offers a family of middleware evolution products and services that maximize return on technology investment by leveraging existing technical equity to meet evolving business needs. ...
19th Cloud Expo, taking place November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. Cloud computing is now being embraced by a majority of enterprises of all sizes. Yesterday's debate about public vs. private has transformed into the reality of hybrid cloud: a recent survey shows that 74% of enterprises have a hybrid cloud strategy. Meanwhile, 94% of enterpri...
Using new techniques of information modeling, indexing, and processing, new cloud-based systems can support cloud-based workloads previously not possible for high-throughput insurance, banking, and case-based applications. In his session at 18th Cloud Expo, John Newton, CTO, Founder and Chairman of Alfresco, described how to scale cloud-based content management repositories to store, manage, and retrieve billions of documents and related information with fast and linear scalability. He addres...
Enterprises have forever faced challenges surrounding the sharing of their intellectual property. Emerging cloud adoption has made it more compelling for enterprises to digitize their content, making them available over a wide variety of devices across the Internet. In his session at 19th Cloud Expo, Santosh Ahuja, Director of Architecture at Impiger Technologies, will introduce various mechanisms provided by cloud service providers today to manage and share digital content in a secure manner....
Internet of @ThingsExpo, taking place November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, is co-located with 19th Cloud Expo and will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. The Internet of Things (IoT) is the most profound change in personal and enterprise IT since the creation of the Worldwide Web more than 20 years ago. All major researchers estimate there will be tens of billions devices - comp...
As the world moves toward more DevOps and Microservices, application deployment to the cloud ought to become a lot simpler. The Microservices architecture, which is the basis of many new age distributed systems such as OpenStack, NetFlix and so on, is at the heart of Cloud Foundry - a complete developer-oriented Platform as a Service (PaaS) that is IaaS agnostic and supports vCloud, OpenStack and AWS. Serverless computing is revolutionizing computing. In his session at 19th Cloud Expo, Raghav...
Fact: storage performance problems have only gotten more complicated, as applications not only have become largely virtualized, but also have moved to cloud-based infrastructures. Storage performance in virtualized environments isn’t just about IOPS anymore. Instead, you need to guarantee performance for individual VMs, helping applications maintain performance as the number of VMs continues to go up in real time. In his session at Cloud Expo, Dhiraj Sehgal, Product and Marketing at Tintri, wil...