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UK Consumer Credit Forecasts

DUBLIN, March 4, 2014 /PRNewswire/ --

Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/kft45b/uk_consumer) has announced the addition of the "UK Consumer Credit Forecasts" report to their offering. 

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The housing market presents some specific uncertainty with many economists and property professionals believing that the government's Help-to-Buy scheme will cause it to overheat in the short term. This may stimulate activity and demand for credit by improving consumer confidence but, if it does, this will increase the risk of a correction if a change of policy follows the 2015 election. Another possible impact of a rise in house prices is a return to widespread use of equity release, rather than unsecured credit, to fund consumer spending. Our forecast assumes that there is not a significant spike in house prices arising from this policy but note it as a risk.

Market conditions and mainstream lender interest rate policies are likely to continue to be favourable for alternative lenders, such as peer-to-peer lending platforms and high-cost credit providers like payday loans companies. We believe that the market opportunity for these lenders largely arises from the current conservative approach of the mainstream lenders. Alternative lenders are exploiting the market opportunity by innovating their business models and bringing out new products to better target customer segments which they see as not well served. However, for the next couple of years at least, these sources will remain a small proportion of overall lending hence will have only a limited impact on the market as a whole. In the longer term, they may lead to changes in the market which help to address some of the supply limitations arising from the UK's relatively homogenous and concentrated banking sector. 

The report forecasts a return to modest growth in unsecured credit over the next few years at a rate below that experienced from 2006-08. In particular, growth in lending will be encouraged by strengthening of the recovery in GDP; modest wage growth below the rate of inflation increasing the need for credit on the part of consumers who are creditworthy but see costs rising faster than incomes; increase in the numbers of people who are in work and who are therefore likely to be in a position to borrow from mainstream sources and significant improvements in consumer confidence supporting increased retail sales spending and further growth in larger purchases such as new cars and home improvements.

Market conditions and mainstream lender interest rate policies are likely to continue to be favourable for alternative lenders, such as peer-to-peer lending platforms and high-cost credit providers like payday loans companies. We believe that the market opportunity for these lenders largely arises from the current conservative approach of the mainstream lenders. Alternative lenders are exploiting the market opportunity by innovating their business models and bringing out new products to better target customer segments which they see as not well served. 


Key Topics Covered: 

About this report

Summary

UK consumer credit overview

International comparisons

Property transactions and secured lending

Unsecured lending trends

Other indicators: retail sales and new car purchases

GDP

Inflation

Labour market outlook

Consumer confidence

Lenders' views

Unsecured consumer credit forecast

Appendices


For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/kft45b/uk_consumer


Media Contact: Laura Wood , +353-1-481-1716, [email protected]


SOURCE Research and Markets

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