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Confrontation Between Ukraine and Russia Unlikely to Slow Global Growth, Standish Says

Heightened Volatility Possible

NEW YORK and LONDON, March 19, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Geopolitical risks brought on by the confrontation between Ukraine and Russia are unlikely to slow global gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2014, according to the March Global Macro Views from Standish Mellon Asset Management Company LLC, the Boston-based fixed income specialist for BNY Mellon.

Standish continues to forecast global GDP growth of 3.5 percent in 2014 and 3.7 percent in 2015.

"Ukraine is only a $175 billion economy* in nominal GDP and is not likely to have much impact on the $73 trillion global economy," said Thomas Higgins, chief economist for Standish and a co-author of the report.  "Our base case is that the crisis in the region will not intensify, though it could continue to be a source of volatility in global financial markets."

Looking at various regions, Standish continues to see 2.7 percent growth for the U.S. in 2014.  For the euro zone, Standish forecasts growth of 1.2 percent for 2014, slightly above the consensus of one percent.  

For the United Kingdom, Standish is forecasting GDP growth of 2.6 percent in 2014.  "The U.K. growth story remains strong, as increases in business investment such as buildings and machinery came in particularly strong in the fourth quarter of 2013," Higgins said.  

In other regions, Standish is looking for GDP growth in 2014 of 7.2 percent in China, 1.5 percent in Japan, 3.2 percent in Latin America, and 2.6 percent in eastern Europe. For Russia, Standish is forecasting GDP growth of 2.2 percent in 2014.  The report notes that the confrontation with Ukraine could spark investor concern that Russia's economic growth could be threatened by economic sanctions.

Notes to Editors:

*According to the International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Database as of January 2014

Standish Mellon Asset Management Company LLC, with approximately $162 billion of assets under management, provides investment management services across a broad spectrum of fixed income asset classes. These include corporate credit, emerging markets debt (dollar-denominated and local currency), core / core plus, tax–sensitive, short duration, stable value and opportunistic (U.S. and global) strategies.  Standish also offers full service capabilities in insurance client strategies and liability driven investing. The firm includes assets managed by Standish personnel acting as dual officers of The Dreyfus Corporation and The Bank of New York Mellon and Alcentra NY, LLC personnel acting as dual officers of Standish.

BNY Mellon Investment Management is one of the world's leading investment management organizations and one of the top U.S. wealth managers, with $1.6 trillion in assets under management. It encompasses BNY Mellon's affiliated investment management firms, wealth management services and global distribution companies. More information can be found at www.bnymellon.com.

BNY Mellon is a global investments company dedicated to helping its clients manage and service their financial assets throughout the investment lifecycle. Whether providing financial services for institutions, corporations or individual investors, BNY Mellon delivers informed investment management and investment services in 35 countries and more than 100 markets. As of December 31, 2013, BNY Mellon had $27.6 trillion in assets under custody and/or administration, and $1.6 trillion in assets under management. BNY Mellon can act as a single point of contact for clients looking to create, trade, hold, manage, service, distribute or restructure investments. BNY Mellon is the corporate brand of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE: BK). Additional information is available on www.bnymellon.com, or follow us on Twitter @BNYMellon.

All information source BNY Mellon as of December 31, 2013. This press release is qualified for issuance in the UK, Europe and US and is for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer or solicitation of securities or investment services or an endorsement thereof in any jurisdiction or in any circumstance in which such offer or solicitation is unlawful or not authorized. Any views and opinions contained in this document are those of the author as at the date of issue; are subject to change and should not be taken as investment advice. BNY Mellon Investment Management EMEA Limited and its affiliates are not responsible for any subsequent investment advice given based on the information supplied. This press release is issued by BNY Mellon Investment Management (US) and BNY Mellon Investment Management EMEA Limited (ex-US) to members of the financial press and media and the information contained herein should not be construed as investment advice.  The value of investments and the income from them is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise due to stock market and currency movements.  When you sell your investment you may get back less than you originally invested. Registered office of BNY Mellon Investment Management EMEA Limited: BNY Mellon Centre, 160 Queen Victoria Street, London, EC4V 4LA. Registered in England no. 1118580. Authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. A BNY Mellon Company.                                                                                                                                                     

Contact:           

Mike Dunn                                

Sarah Deutscher


+1 212 922 7859

+44 (0) 20 7163 2744


[email protected]

[email protected]  

SOURCE BNY Mellon

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