|By PR Newswire||
|March 20, 2014 09:32 AM EDT||
CHERRY HILL, N.J., March 20, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Snowstorms and freezing temperatures slowed the economy at the start of this year, but spring has just arrived and with it will come brighter prospects for growth, according to a new report by TD Economics (www.td.com/economics), an affiliate of TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank®.
"Economic momentum in the first quarter was restrained by a number of temporary factors, the biggest of which was an unusually cold winter, says TD Chief Economist Craig Alexander. "As the weather warms up, the fundamentals underpinning growth will come through. With fiscal drag less than half of what it was last year and consumer finances in the best shape in several years, economic growth is set to accelerate."
From a rather mediocre pace of 1.9% in 2013, TD Economics forecasts the economy will grow by 2.7% in 2014 and 3.2% in 2015.
Weather or not
It's not just the weather reports that have been hard to watch in recent months. News on the economy has also been rather sour, with a number of top line indicators like job growth and home sales losing momentum.
"The string of bad data has created doubts about the strength of the U.S. economy," says Alexander. "These doubts are misgiven. Comparing economic data and weather across the United States, a pattern emerges – activity was hit hardest where the weather was the worst."
Other elements such as expiring unemployment benefits and tax credits for business investment are also weighing on near-term economic growth, but will diminish in the months ahead.
"Moving forward, economic momentum of the private sector won't be masked by temporary influences and the government sector," says Alexander. Overall the level of drag from federal fiscal policy, which is estimated to have cut 1.3 percentage points from economic growth in 2013, is likely to fall to around 0.5 percentage points in 2014. Moreover, state and local governments are likely to move from spending cuts to reinvestment.
Housing recovery to move from investors to new buyers
One of the areas of the economy where activity has slowed noticeably is the housing market. Existing home sales reached a peak in July of last year and have fallen for five of the past six months. While some of this is due to poor weather, it's not fully to blame.
"The recent fall in home sales likely reflects the transition away from investor-supported buying," says Alexander. "As home prices and interest rates rise, the value proposition for investors diminishes."
The next stage of the housing recovery will shift more to traditional homebuyers. This transition was impeded by a sudden 100 basis point increase in mortgage rates in 2013 and, to a lesser extent, the introduction of mortgage regulations at the start of this year.
Borrowing costs have recently dropped, and are likely to rise slowly over the course of this year and next. Relatively low mortgage rates will keep housing affordable and, in addition to greater certainty on the regulatory front, should support a rebound in housing demand.
"The benefit of reduced fiscal drag and a more positive outlook for the economy as a whole is that it will feed back into the housing market," Alexander said.
Soft inflation gives the Fed leeway to keep rates low
As economic growth pushes north of 3%, it won't be long before the siren calls for the Fed to begin raising interest rates will begin to sound. However, scant evidence of inflation is likely to mean these calls will fall on deaf ears.
"While the economy has made substantial progress, the reality is that inflation is still running well below the Fed's target," says Alexander. "This should give the Fed ample leeway to leave rates accommodative even as it finishes its asset purchase program later this year."
TD Economics expects the Federal Reserve to continue tapering its asset purchase program at its current measured pace and to end it by the fourth quarter of this year. Still, it is likely to be the fourth quarter of 2015 before the target for the fed funds rate moves off its zero lower bound.
TD Economics provides analysis of global economic performance and forecasting, and is an affiliate of TD Bank, America's Most Convenient Bank®.
The complete findings of the TD Economics report are available online at http://www.td.com/document/PDF/economics/qef/qefmar2014_us.pdf
SOURCE TD Bank
"We build IoT infrastructure products - when you have to integrate different devices, different systems and cloud you have to build an application to do that but we eliminate the need to build an application. Our products can integrate any device, any system, any cloud regardless of protocol," explained Peter Jung, Chief Product Officer at Pulzze Systems, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @ThingsExpo, held November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Dec. 3, 2016 01:45 AM EST Reads: 695
Much of the value of DevOps comes from a (renewed) focus on measurement, sharing, and continuous feedback loops. In increasingly complex DevOps workflows and environments, and especially in larger, regulated, or more crystallized organizations, these core concepts become even more critical. In his session at @DevOpsSummit at 18th Cloud Expo, Andi Mann, Chief Technology Advocate at Splunk, showed how, by focusing on 'metrics that matter,' you can provide objective, transparent, and meaningful f...
Dec. 3, 2016 01:45 AM EST Reads: 4,518
"We are the public cloud providers. We are currently providing 50% of the resources they need for doing e-commerce business in China and we are hosting about 60% of mobile gaming in China," explained Yi Zheng, CPO and VP of Engineering at CDS Global Cloud, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 19th Cloud Expo, held November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Dec. 3, 2016 01:15 AM EST Reads: 841
Data is the fuel that drives the machine learning algorithmic engines and ultimately provides the business value. In his session at 20th Cloud Expo, Ed Featherston, director/senior enterprise architect at Collaborative Consulting, will discuss the key considerations around quality, volume, timeliness, and pedigree that must be dealt with in order to properly fuel that engine.
Dec. 3, 2016 12:30 AM EST Reads: 1,517
Between 2005 and 2020, data volumes will grow by a factor of 300 – enough data to stack CDs from the earth to the moon 162 times. This has come to be known as the ‘big data’ phenomenon. Unfortunately, traditional approaches to handling, storing and analyzing data aren’t adequate at this scale: they’re too costly, slow and physically cumbersome to keep up. Fortunately, in response a new breed of technology has emerged that is cheaper, faster and more scalable. Yet, in meeting these new needs they...
Dec. 3, 2016 12:15 AM EST Reads: 1,745
"Once customers get a year into their IoT deployments, they start to realize that they may have been shortsighted in the ways they built out their deployment and the key thing I see a lot of people looking at is - how can I take equipment data, pull it back in an IoT solution and show it in a dashboard," stated Dave McCarthy, Director of Products at Bsquare Corporation, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @ThingsExpo, held November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Dec. 2, 2016 11:15 PM EST Reads: 887
20th Cloud Expo, taking place June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY, will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. Cloud computing is now being embraced by a majority of enterprises of all sizes. Yesterday's debate about public vs. private has transformed into the reality of hybrid cloud: a recent survey shows that 74% of enterprises have a hybrid cloud strategy.
Dec. 2, 2016 11:15 PM EST Reads: 1,673
@DevOpsSummit taking place June 6-8, 2017 at Javits Center, New York City, is co-located with the 20th International Cloud Expo and will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. @DevOpsSummit at Cloud Expo New York Call for Papers is now open.
Dec. 2, 2016 10:30 PM EST Reads: 1,723
IoT is rapidly changing the way enterprises are using data to improve business decision-making. In order to derive business value, organizations must unlock insights from the data gathered and then act on these. In their session at @ThingsExpo, Eric Hoffman, Vice President at EastBanc Technologies, and Peter Shashkin, Head of Development Department at EastBanc Technologies, discussed how one organization leveraged IoT, cloud technology and data analysis to improve customer experiences and effici...
Dec. 2, 2016 08:30 PM EST Reads: 4,973
"We are an all-flash array storage provider but our focus has been on VM-aware storage specifically for virtualized applications," stated Dhiraj Sehgal of Tintri in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 19th Cloud Expo, held November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Dec. 2, 2016 08:30 PM EST Reads: 363
Fact is, enterprises have significant legacy voice infrastructure that’s costly to replace with pure IP solutions. How can we bring this analog infrastructure into our shiny new cloud applications? There are proven methods to bind both legacy voice applications and traditional PSTN audio into cloud-based applications and services at a carrier scale. Some of the most successful implementations leverage WebRTC, WebSockets, SIP and other open source technologies. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Da...
Dec. 2, 2016 08:15 PM EST Reads: 1,558
The cloud competition for database hosts is fierce. How do you evaluate a cloud provider for your database platform? In his session at 18th Cloud Expo, Chris Presley, a Solutions Architect at Pythian, gave users a checklist of considerations when choosing a provider. Chris Presley is a Solutions Architect at Pythian. He loves order – making him a premier Microsoft SQL Server expert. Not only has he programmed and administered SQL Server, but he has also shared his expertise and passion with b...
Dec. 2, 2016 07:00 PM EST Reads: 3,918
"IoT is going to be a huge industry with a lot of value for end users, for industries, for consumers, for manufacturers. How can we use cloud to effectively manage IoT applications," stated Ian Khan, Innovation & Marketing Manager at Solgeniakhela, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @ThingsExpo, held November 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Dec. 2, 2016 06:45 PM EST Reads: 3,985
As data explodes in quantity, importance and from new sources, the need for managing and protecting data residing across physical, virtual, and cloud environments grow with it. Managing data includes protecting it, indexing and classifying it for true, long-term management, compliance and E-Discovery. Commvault can ensure this with a single pane of glass solution – whether in a private cloud, a Service Provider delivered public cloud or a hybrid cloud environment – across the heterogeneous enter...
Dec. 2, 2016 06:30 PM EST Reads: 1,478
Without a clear strategy for cost control and an architecture designed with cloud services in mind, costs and operational performance can quickly get out of control. To avoid multiple architectural redesigns requires extensive thought and planning. Boundary (now part of BMC) launched a new public-facing multi-tenant high resolution monitoring service on Amazon AWS two years ago, facing challenges and learning best practices in the early days of the new service. In his session at 19th Cloud Exp...
Dec. 2, 2016 05:15 PM EST Reads: 372