Welcome!

News Feed Item

Scotiabank: Global Housing Recovery Deepens

TORONTO, ON--(Marketwired - March 28, 2014) - The recovery in global property markets is becoming more entrenched and broadly based, according to the Scotiabank Global Real Estate Trends report released today. An improving economic outlook combined with historically low borrowing costs are buoying confidence in the sector, notwithstanding still soft labour markets in many regions.

"From a regional perspective, the U.S. housing recovery should remain an outperformer among advanced nations, while positive medium-term demographic and income trends support rising housing demand in many emerging markets in Asia and Latin America," said Adrienne Warren, Scotiabank's Senior Economist.

"Canada's housing sector appears to be moving back onto a more sustainable trajectory. Home sales in the first two months of the year were running just 1% above a year earlier and about 6% below the average level of the past decade. A combination of factors are contributing to the more moderate sales trend, including weaker job growth, lower housing affordability, and a widening gap between the cost of owning versus renting."

Highlights in the report include:

  • Canada's regional conditions vary substantially. Home sales in Calgary and Vancouver have picked up sharply over the past year, with demand in the former fuelled by strong employment and population growth well above the national pace, while the latter is recovering from weak conditions last year.
  • Sales were generally more muted in Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces, suggesting the winter deep-freeze continues to deter buyers.
  • Only in three provinces -- Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba -- are sales trending above their 10-year average.

Read the full Scotiabank Global Real Estate Trends report below or find a copy online at http://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/0,,3112,00.html.

Scotiabank provides clients with in-depth research into the factors shaping the outlook for Canada and the global economy, including macroeconomic developments, currency and capital market trends, commodity and industry performance, as well as monetary, fiscal and public policy issues.

Scotiabank is a leading financial services provider in over 55 countries and Canada's most international bank. Through our team of more than 83,000 employees, Scotiabank and its affiliates offer a broad range of products and services, including personal and commercial banking, wealth management, corporate and investment banking to over 21 million customers. With assets of $783 billion (as at January 31, 2014), Scotiabank trades on the Toronto (TSX: BNS) and New York Exchanges (NYSE: BNS). Scotiabank distributes the Bank's media releases using Marketwired. For more information please visit www.scotiabank.com.

Global Housing Recovery Deepens

The recovery in global property markets is becoming more entrenched and broadly based. An improving economic outlook combined with historically low borrowing costs are buoying confidence in the sector, notwithstanding still soft labour markets in many regions. In our latest round-up of international house prices, roughly two-thirds of national markets posted real annual price appreciation through the end of 2013, up from 40% a year earlier.

Among advanced economies, Canada continues to hold its place near the top rungs of our survey. Average inflation-adjusted house prices rose 8% y/y in Q4. The national average increase is skewed by a mix of sales favouring some of the country's priciest markets, but most centres continue to post moderate annual price gains slightly outpacing inflation.

We expect the pace of Canadian house price growth will slow this year. Sales have been weakening since last fall as higher prices alongside tougher mortgage rules eroded affordability. Recent declines in some fixed mortgage rates may provide some temporary relief, although modestly higher borrowing costs are still on the horizon as global growth picks up. An emerging oversupply of condominiums in several large urban centres also risks putting downward pressure on prices. 

The U.S. housing recovery has lost some momentum. Affordability, while still good, has been dented by higher prices and borrowing costs. Meanwhile, tight credit conditions and lacklustre job growth have restricted the pool of first-time buyers, which remains well below normal levels. Even so, tight supply continues to underpin valuations, with real house prices up 6% y/y in Q4.

From a cyclical perspective, the U.S. housing expansion has further to go. Improving job and income growth should underpin strengthening sales this year, while new construction will widen the pool of listings. In both Canada and the United States, we expect some release of weather-induced pent-up demand this spring.

Property markets in Europe are mixed, mirroring divergent regional economic conditions. Improving domestic activity is supporting strengthening real house price growth in Ireland (+6% y/y), Germany (+5% y/y) and the U.K. (+3% y/y). Switzerland and Sweden are posting steady increases of around 4% y/y.

At the same time, weak economic growth and historically high unemployment continue to hold back the housing recovery in a number of other European nations, including France (-2% y/y). Conditions also remain quite weak in Spain (-5% y/y) and Italy (-6% y/y), though prices appear to be nearing a bottom after an extended period of declines. Improving regional growth prospects should support a more synchronized pickup in 2014.

A re-acceleration in home prices in China has lifted the nation back to the top of our international ranking, though the pace of increase has shown some signs of slowing in early 2014 amid moderate policy tightening. Australia's housing market also has heated up again (+7% y/y), while Indonesia and Thailand are seeing steady price growth of about 4% y/y. Conditions remain much softer in South Korea, India and Russia.

Latin American housing markets remain among the best performing in the group, supported by relatively healthy domestic demand and improving inflation dynamics that have allowed monetary policy easing in a number of countries. Peru and Colombia continue to lead the region with real house prices advancing around 10% y/y, while Chile is posting steady gains of 5% y/y. Mexico's housing market has lagged, but should benefit from domestic market reforms and a strengthening U.S. economy. Even Brazil's housing market has remained fairly resilient in the face of weak growth and a significant tightening in monetary policy.

Global property markets will likely gain further traction this year as the economic recovery becomes more entrenched and labour market prospects improve. Long-term borrowing costs are drifting higher, but excess capacity and subdued inflation should anchor short-term interest rates at historically low levels. From a regional perspective, the U.S. housing recovery should remain an outperformer among advanced nations, while positive medium-term demographic and income trends support rising housing demand in many emerging markets in Asia and Latin America.

Focus on Canada

- An Increasingly Diversified Market

Canada's housing sector appears to be moving back onto a more sustainable trajectory. Home sales in the first two months of the year were running just 1% above a year earlier and about 6% below the average level of the past decade. A combination of factors are contributing to the more moderate sales trend, including weaker job growth, lower housing affordability, and a widening gap between the cost of owning versus renting.

Prices continue to climb despite the more tempered sales environment. The national average house price in January/February was up almost 10% y/y. However, the headline increase is magnified by stronger sales in some of Canada's priciest markets, including Vancouver. Constant quality house price measures put the underlying price trend at around 5% y/y -- consistent with a market that is fairly well balanced overall, though slightly favouring sellers in some segments.

Regional conditions vary substantially. Home sales in Calgary and Vancouver have picked up sharply over the past year, with demand in the former fuelled by strong employment and population growth well above the national pace, while the latter is recovering from weak conditions last year. Sales were generally more muted in Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces, suggesting the winter deep-freeze continues to deter buyers. Only in three provinces -- Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba -- are sales trending above their 10-year average.

In a few markets, including Toronto and Calgary, a lack of listings for single-family homes appears to be holding back sales. Sellers' conditions continue to dominate the undersupplied single-family market, lifting already high prices even higher. Buyers have more leverage in the more-amply supplied condominium market, notably in Toronto where prices are posting moderate increases even amid strong demand. As a result, the price premium for a single-family home relative to a condominium continues to widen.

The shortage of single-family homes for sale combined with strained affordability for first-time buyers will buoy resale condominium demand in the year ahead, though prices should be restrained by sizeable new inventory of recently completed units. Sales and prices of new condominiums, a large share of which are purchased by investors, are expected to remain soft. Meanwhile, relatively tight market conditions could continue to pressure single-family home prices in some of Canada's largest urban centres.

More Stories By Marketwired .

Copyright © 2009 Marketwired. All rights reserved. All the news releases provided by Marketwired are copyrighted. Any forms of copying other than an individual user's personal reference without express written permission is prohibited. Further distribution of these materials is strictly forbidden, including but not limited to, posting, emailing, faxing, archiving in a public database, redistributing via a computer network or in a printed form.

Latest Stories
"Storage is growing. All of IDC's estimates say that unstructured data is now 80% of the world's data. We provide storage systems that can actually deal with that scale of data - software-defined storage systems," stated Paul Turner, Chief Product and Marketing Officer at Cloudian, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 17th Cloud Expo, held November 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
The best way to leverage your Cloud Expo presence as a sponsor and exhibitor is to plan your news announcements around our events. The press covering Cloud Expo and @ThingsExpo will have access to these releases and will amplify your news announcements. More than two dozen Cloud companies either set deals at our shows or have announced their mergers and acquisitions at Cloud Expo. Product announcements during our show provide your company with the most reach through our targeted audiences.
20th Cloud Expo, taking place June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY, will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. Cloud computing is now being embraced by a majority of enterprises of all sizes. Yesterday's debate about public vs. private has transformed into the reality of hybrid cloud: a recent survey shows that 74% of enterprises have a hybrid cloud strategy.
Bert Loomis was a visionary. This general session will highlight how Bert Loomis and people like him inspire us to build great things with small inventions. In their general session at 19th Cloud Expo, Harold Hannon, Architect at IBM Bluemix, and Michael O'Neill, Strategic Business Development at Nvidia, discussed the accelerating pace of AI development and how IBM Cloud and NVIDIA are partnering to bring AI capabilities to "every day," on-demand. They also reviewed two "free infrastructure" pr...
Cloud Expo, Inc. has announced today that Aruna Ravichandran, vice president of DevOps Product and Solutions Marketing at CA Technologies, has been named co-conference chair of DevOps at Cloud Expo 2017. The @DevOpsSummit at Cloud Expo New York will take place on June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, New York, and @DevOpsSummit at Cloud Expo Silicon Valley will take place Oct. 31-Nov. 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Have you ever noticed how some IT people seem to lead successful, rewarding, and satisfying lives and careers, while others struggle? IT author and speaker Don Crawley uncovered the five principles that successful IT people use to build satisfying lives and careers and he shares them in this fast-paced, thought-provoking webinar. You'll learn the importance of striking a balance with technical skills and people skills, challenge your pre-existing ideas about IT customer service, and gain new in...
In his general session at 18th Cloud Expo, Lee Atchison, Principal Cloud Architect and Advocate at New Relic, discussed cloud as a ‘better data center’ and how it adds new capacity (faster) and improves application availability (redundancy). The cloud is a ‘Dynamic Tool for Dynamic Apps’ and resource allocation is an integral part of your application architecture, so use only the resources you need and allocate /de-allocate resources on the fly.
SYS-CON Events announced today that Hitrons Solutions will exhibit at the 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Hitrons Solutions Inc. is distributor in the North American market for unique products and services of small and medium-size businesses, including cloud services and solutions, SEO marketing platforms, and mobile applications.
The Internet of Things will challenge the status quo of how IT and development organizations operate. Or will it? Certainly the fog layer of IoT requires special insights about data ontology, security and transactional integrity. But the developmental challenges are the same: People, Process and Platform. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Craig Sproule, CEO of Metavine, demonstrated how to move beyond today's coding paradigm and shared the must-have mindsets for removing complexity from the develop...
@DevOpsSummit at Cloud taking place June 6-8, 2017, at Javits Center, New York City, is co-located with the 20th International Cloud Expo and will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. The widespread success of cloud computing is driving the DevOps revolution in enterprise IT. Now as never before, development teams must communicate and collaborate in a dynamic, 24/7/365 environment. There is no time to wait for long developm...
For basic one-to-one voice or video calling solutions, WebRTC has proven to be a very powerful technology. Although WebRTC’s core functionality is to provide secure, real-time p2p media streaming, leveraging native platform features and server-side components brings up new communication capabilities for web and native mobile applications, allowing for advanced multi-user use cases such as video broadcasting, conferencing, and media recording.
Almost two-thirds of companies either have or soon will have IoT as the backbone of their business. Though, IoT is far more complex than most firms expected with a majority of IoT projects having failed. How can you not get trapped in the pitfalls? In his session at @ThingsExpo, Tony Shan, Chief IoTologist at Wipro, will introduce a holistic method of IoTification, which is the process of IoTifying the existing technology portfolios and business models to adopt and leverage IoT. He will delve in...
In his session at @ThingsExpo, Steve Wilkes, CTO and founder of Striim, will delve into four enterprise-scale, business-critical case studies where streaming analytics serves as the key to enabling real-time data integration and right-time insights in hybrid cloud, IoT, and fog computing environments. As part of this discussion, he will also present a demo based on its partnership with Fujitsu, highlighting their technologies in a healthcare IoT use-case. The demo showcases the tracking of patie...
DevOps and microservices are permeating software engineering teams broadly, whether these teams are in pure software shops but happen to run a business, such Uber and Airbnb, or in companies that rely heavily on software to run more traditional business, such as financial firms or high-end manufacturers. Microservices and DevOps have created software development and therefore business speed and agility benefits, but they have also created problems; specifically, they have created software securi...
In today's enterprise, digital transformation represents organizational change even more so than technology change, as customer preferences and behavior drive end-to-end transformation across lines of business as well as IT. To capitalize on the ubiquitous disruption driving this transformation, companies must be able to innovate at an increasingly rapid pace. Traditional approaches for driving innovation are now woefully inadequate for keeping up with the breadth of disruption and change facing...