Welcome!

News Feed Item

Following Harsh Winter in the East and Drought in the West, UCLA Anderson Forecast Predicts Employment Growth in U.S. and California

LOS ANGELES, April 2, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- In its first quarterly report of 2014, the UCLA Anderson Forecast asserts that the harsh winter weather that ravaged much of the country caused slower than expected national growth in the first quarter of the year. However, the economy should rebound in the spring. Weather-impacted activities, such as factory production, automobile sales and construction, are expected to make up for time lost over the winter, leading to GDP growth in the 3 percent range. That rate is forecasted to persist through 2016, boosted by increased housing and business investments, as well as gains in consumer spending.

The first forecast report of the year for California focuses on the recent drought, analyzing the impact of the dry weather and the complex relationship between the state's economy and its water supply. While the drought may affect certain agricultural sectors, the state overall will not be greatly affected by the unseasonably dry weather conditions.

In a companion piece to the national and state forecasts, the UCLA Anderson Forecast team takes a hard look at a variety of problems plaguing the Los Angeles economy, including the high cost of housing and commuting, a poor environment for business and the relatively low education levels of the local population.

The National Forecast

In light of the nation's expected 3 percent GDP growth, UCLA Anderson Forecast Senior Economist David Shulman forecasts increases in overall job opportunities. In his report, he writes, "We can visualize the economy creating between 200,000-250,000 jobs a month with the unemployment rate dropping to 5.4 percent by late 2016 ... total payroll employment will surpass the prior 2007 peak, but the economy will remain well below its pre-Great Recession growth path."

Shulman also expects an uptick in inflation, expecting the core consumer price index to increase from 1.8 percent in 2013 to 2.5 percent in 2016. As inflation rises, Shulman anticipates that wages will rise as well. "To be sure, for most Americans, the increase in wages will be most welcome," Shulman says. "But for those wary of inflation, it will be signaling a cautionary yellow light. Specifically, we are forecasting total compensation per hour to increase by 2.4 percent, 3.5 percent and 4 percent in 2014, 2015 and 2016, respectively, compared to a very low increase of 1.6 percent in 2013." Shulman also says that the Federal Reserve's long experiments with zero interest rates and quantitative easing are slowly coming to an end. He expects that the monthly $85 billion bond buying program, now at $55 billion, will be all but wound down by September. "We forecast that the Federal Funds rate will rise, to use 'Fedspeak,' at a measured pace, reaching 3 percent by the end of 2016," says Shulman. "In essence, the 'Yellen Fed' will be very much like the Bernanke Fed."

The California Forecast

The California forecast report, authored by UCLA Anderson Forecast Senior Economist Jerry Nickelsburg, examines the impacts that the ongoing drought and dry weather are having on the California economy. Nickelsburg examines the key economic components of a drought – demand, supply and a forecast of future drought conditions – and notes that in California there are four sources of demand: agriculture, fisheries and the environment, households and industry. Agriculture, by far the largest segment of demand, consumes about 80 percent of all delivered water. On the surface, rainfall and the transpiration of ground water appear to be the major components of 'supply,' but here water authorities may choose to pump more or less reservoir water to meet specific demands. Meteorological forecasts are relevant because the expected length of a drought affects both demand and supply.

Nickelsburg notes that aridity and recurrent drought conditions are not, in and of themselves, detrimental to economic growth. Arid states have not seen their economies perform worse than states with more rainfall during the past decade. Because California and its residents have historically endured dry weather conditions, they have found ways to mitigate the impact of droughts. In fact, the amount of water used in Southern California is no higher now than it was 20 years ago, despite a much larger population today.

According to Nickelsburg, while the drought has negatively affected California's economy, particularly in some agricultural areas, "Overall the state is not likely to be greatly impacted.  But given our fragile recovery from the Great Recession, and the potential for this drought to drive industrial and agricultural structural change towards an adaptation to a more arid environment, a prudent incorporation of the drought impact would be to lower the forecast employment growth rates for the next few years by about 0.2 percent. This is more a recognition that disruptions are not without cost than a significant change in our economic forecast for the Golden State."

The latest forecast for California calls for total employment growth (payroll, farm and self-employed) of 1.8 percent in 2014, 2.2 percent in 2015 and 2.1 percent in 2016. Nonfarm payroll employment is expected to grow at 2.2 percent, 2.3 percent and 2.0 percent for the three forecast years. Real personal income growth is forecast to be 3.1 percent in 2014 followed by 3.8 percent and 3.7 percent in 2015 and 2016. The unemployment rate for the three forecast years are expected to be 7.8 percent, 6.9 percent and 6.0 percent respectively, with the rate going as low as 5.7 percent by fourth quarter 2016.

Problems and Solutions for Los Angeles' Economy: Human Capital, Public Education, and Migration

In a companion piece, UCLA Forecast Economist William Yu examines a variety of conditions plaguing the Los Angeles economy. These include the high cost of housing and commuting amid an unfriendly business environment. He continues his examination of the First 5 L.A./UCLA City Human Capital Index, which measures the education levels of various metropolitan populations.

Yu's piece notes that Los Angeles has ranked near the bottom of major U.S. metropolitan areas in terms of job growth since 1990, joining only Cleveland and Detroit as cities with negative job growth in the last 23 years. His report, titled "Problems and Solutions for Los Angeles' Economy: Human Capital, Public Education, and Migration," suggests that Los Angeles' economy is somewhat bifurcated, as better-educated West Los Angeles has had healthier job recovery compared to other parts of the city.

Yu also proposes that Los Angeles advance its human capital by improving local public schools and finding ways to attract highly educated individuals to the city. Los Angeles could also find ways to become more business friendly as a means to create jobs for the less educated.

Solutions for Our City

Yu's report will be presented (along with the U.S. and California forecasts) at the UCLA Anderson Forecast's quarterly conference today, April 2, 2014, at the J.W. Marriott L.A. Live in downtown Los Angeles. The event's keynote speaker is Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti. In addition, the event features a pair of panel discussions focused on job availability and job preparedness. Additional event details can be found here.

About UCLA Anderson Forecast

UCLA Anderson Forecast is one of the most widely watched and often-cited economic outlooks for California and the nation and was unique in predicting both the seriousness of the early-1990s downturn in California and the strength of the state's rebound since 1993. More recently, the Forecast was credited as the first major U.S. economic forecasting group to declare the recession of 2001. Visit UCLA Anderson Forecast at http://uclaforecast.com. For a historical timeline of the Forecast, click here.

About UCLA Anderson School of Management

UCLA Anderson School of Management is among the leading business schools in the world, with faculty members globally renowned for their teaching excellence and research in advancing management thinking. Located in Los Angeles, gateway to the growing economies of Latin America and Asia and a city that personifies innovation in a diverse range of endeavors, UCLA Anderson's MBA, Fully-Employed MBA, Executive MBA, Global Executive MBA for Asia Pacific, Global Executive MBA for the Americas, Master of Financial Engineering, doctoral and executive education programs embody the school's Think In The Next ethos. Annually, some 1,800 students are trained to be global leaders seeking the business models and community solutions of tomorrow. Follow UCLA Anderson on Twitter at http://twitter.com/UCLAAnderson or on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/uclaanderson.

 

Infographic: Health of Job Market in 32 Major U.S. Cities

 

UCLA Anderson Forecast - www.uclaforecast.com

 

UCLA Anderson School of Management

 

Video - http://origin-qps.onstreammedia.com/origin/multivu_archive/PRNA/ENR/FX-LA95903-20140402-1.mp4 
Photo - http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20140402/LA95903-INFO 
Logo - http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20130605/LA26150LOGO 
Logo - http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20140225/LA71820LOGO

SOURCE UCLA Anderson School of Management

More Stories By PR Newswire

Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Latest Stories
You think you know what’s in your data. But do you? Most organizations are now aware of the business intelligence represented by their data. Data science stands to take this to a level you never thought of – literally. The techniques of data science, when used with the capabilities of Big Data technologies, can make connections you had not yet imagined, helping you discover new insights and ask new questions of your data. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Sarbjit Sarkaria, data science team lead ...
Much of the value of DevOps comes from a (renewed) focus on measurement, sharing, and continuous feedback loops. In increasingly complex DevOps workflows and environments, and especially in larger, regulated, or more crystallized organizations, these core concepts become even more critical. In his session at @DevOpsSummit at 18th Cloud Expo, Andi Mann, Chief Technology Advocate at Splunk, will show how, by focusing on 'metrics that matter,' you can provide objective, transparent, and meaningfu...
Struggling to keep up with increasing application demand? Learn how Platform as a Service (PaaS) can streamline application development processes and make resource management easy.
If there is anything we have learned by now, is that every business paves their own unique path for releasing software- every pipeline, implementation and practices are a bit different, and DevOps comes in all shapes and sizes. Software delivery practices are often comprised of set of several complementing (or even competing) methodologies – such as leveraging Agile, DevOps and even a mix of ITIL, to create the combination that’s most suitable for your organization and that maximize your busines...
In his session at @ThingsExpo, Chris Klein, CEO and Co-founder of Rachio, will discuss next generation communities that are using IoT to create more sustainable, intelligent communities. One example is Sterling Ranch, a 10,000 home development that – with the help of Siemens – will integrate IoT technology into the community to provide residents with energy and water savings as well as intelligent security. Everything from stop lights to sprinkler systems to building infrastructures will run ef...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Peak 10, Inc., a national IT infrastructure and cloud services provider, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 18th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. Peak 10 provides reliable, tailored data center and network services, cloud and managed services. Its solutions are designed to scale and adapt to customers’ changing business needs, enabling them to lower costs, improve performance and focus inter...
In the world of DevOps there are ‘known good practices’ – aka ‘patterns’ – and ‘known bad practices’ – aka ‘anti-patterns.' Many of these patterns and anti-patterns have been developed from real world experience, especially by the early adopters of DevOps theory; but many are more feasible in theory than in practice, especially for more recent entrants to the DevOps scene. In this power panel at @DevOpsSummit at 18th Cloud Expo, moderated by DevOps Conference Chair Andi Mann, panelists will dis...
Up until last year, enterprises that were looking into cloud services usually undertook a long-term pilot with one of the large cloud providers, running test and dev workloads in the cloud. With cloud’s transition to mainstream adoption in 2015, and with enterprises migrating more and more workloads into the cloud and in between public and private environments, the single-provider approach must be revisited. In his session at 18th Cloud Expo, Yoav Mor, multi-cloud solution evangelist at Cloudy...
Artificial Intelligence has the potential to massively disrupt IoT. In his session at 18th Cloud Expo, AJ Abdallat, CEO of Beyond AI, will discuss what the five main drivers are in Artificial Intelligence that could shape the future of the Internet of Things. AJ Abdallat is CEO of Beyond AI. He has over 20 years of management experience in the fields of artificial intelligence, sensors, instruments, devices and software for telecommunications, life sciences, environmental monitoring, process...
Increasing IoT connectivity is forcing enterprises to find elegant solutions to organize and visualize all incoming data from these connected devices with re-configurable dashboard widgets to effectively allow rapid decision-making for everything from immediate actions in tactical situations to strategic analysis and reporting. In his session at 18th Cloud Expo, Shikhir Singh, Senior Developer Relations Manager at Sencha, will discuss how to create HTML5 dashboards that interact with IoT devic...
See storage differently! Storage performance problems have only gotten worse and harder to solve as applications have become largely virtualized and moved to a cloud-based infrastructure. Storage performance in a virtualized environment is not just about IOPS, it is about how well that potential performance is guaranteed to individual VMs for these apps as the number of VMs keep going up real time. In his session at 18th Cloud Expo, Dhiraj Sehgal, in product and marketing at Tintri, will discu...
So, you bought into the current machine learning craze and went on to collect millions/billions of records from this promising new data source. Now, what do you do with them? Too often, the abundance of data quickly turns into an abundance of problems. How do you extract that "magic essence" from your data without falling into the common pitfalls? In her session at @ThingsExpo, Natalia Ponomareva, Software Engineer at Google, will provide tips on how to be successful in large scale machine lear...
SYS-CON Events announced today that SoftLayer, an IBM Company, has been named “Gold Sponsor” of SYS-CON's 18th Cloud Expo, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York, New York. SoftLayer, an IBM Company, provides cloud infrastructure as a service from a growing number of data centers and network points of presence around the world. SoftLayer’s customers range from Web startups to global enterprises.
The IoTs will challenge the status quo of how IT and development organizations operate. Or will it? Certainly the fog layer of IoT requires special insights about data ontology, security and transactional integrity. But the developmental challenges are the same: People, Process and Platform. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Craig Sproule, CEO of Metavine, will demonstrate how to move beyond today's coding paradigm and share the must-have mindsets for removing complexity from the development proc...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Ericsson has been named “Gold Sponsor” of SYS-CON's @ThingsExpo, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York, New York. Ericsson is a world leader in the rapidly changing environment of communications technology – providing equipment, software and services to enable transformation through mobility. Some 40 percent of global mobile traffic runs through networks we have supplied. More than 1 billion subscribers around the world re...