|By PR Newswire||
|April 3, 2014 04:44 AM EDT||
HELLERUP, Denmark, April 3, 2014 /PRNewswire/ --
Saxo Bank, the online multi-asset trading and investment specialist, has published its second quarterly insight for 2014, focusing on the outlook for Europe.
European outlook: A United States of Europe?
Following an abundance of false starts, the European economy is likely to encounter further challenges in Q2, Saxo Bank writes in its second quarterly insight for 2014. By the end of the second quarter, the European Central Bank is likely to grow increasingly concerned about deflation and the lack of growth and signal new quantitative easing and yet another set of unconventional measures.
As well, Europe faces its biggest electoral challenge since the 1970s, as the reality gap between Europe's voters and their EU-friendly politicians is wider than ever. At the May EU parliamentary elections, look for EU sceptic parties to form one of the largest overall blocs in the new European Parliament. If Brussels listens to voters, it could mark a decisive turning point for the failing EU experiment, even if for now, the political status quo is more likely to maintain the upper hand.
While the economic outlook appears to be improving for Spain, Portugal and Greece, this is really part of an internal transfer of problems from these 'Club Med' countries to France and soon Germany, which is likely to flirt with recession by the end of the year. France and Germany are also likely to suffer from reduced exports, particularly in the luxury goods sector, as Asian growth cools.
Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist and CIO for Saxo Bank, commented:
"The EU member countries have surprised with their political solidarity over the last few years of the EU crisis, but the electorate is growing restless and EU-sceptic parties are making huge inroads that the establishment must recognise. Beside this we have the eternal problem that the EU entirely lacks an economic foundation that is sound and long term. Here in early 2014, EU complacency has never been higher, just as real political and popular entropy is about to make its presence felt."
Global outlook: a 'state of flux'
The 'Fragile Five" (South Africa, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey), which with the recent additions of Argentina, Russia and Chile have become the "Fragile Eight", are now in the process of rebalancing, as the Fed tapering has forced their currencies weaker and required policy tightening that will crimp growth and right the structural imbalances that have grown in recent years. This "state of flux" is a positive development overall, but too many countries and economies are trying to do the same thing simultaneously - devalue and increase exports - so growth is likely to weaken structurally and cyclically due to prior credit excesses.
As Jakobsen points outs, "We have been so focused on saving the world, the banks and the political system that we have underinvested in people, education, infrastructure, innovation and technology.
"It will not be the European Parliamentary elections that make or break the EU, but how the policymakers and their trusted mandarins respond to the slowdown and subsequent rebalancing of the world."
Key points on investments for 2014:
Fixed income: core government bonds will be the only asset that is up Q1 2014 versus Q1 2015 (rebalancing and lack of productivity).
Foreign exchange: EURUSD will peak at about 1.4000/1.4050and then turn down to 1.2500 (the ECB should get active on deflation over the summer). USDJPY could see 95.00 on a VAT hike and initial signs of Abenomics failing. The "Fragile Eight" will drop another 5 percent.
Commodities: will do well through Q2 as real rates will drop, but could fall again heading into H1 2015.Will take profit in Q3 2014.
Equity: The S&P 500 will peak at about 1,900-1,950, then a 30 percent correction. Equities are the only asset not yet hurt by the changing economic cycle.
Consult Saxo Bank's full quarterly outlook for Steen Jakobsen's article in full, alongside additional outlooks for individual asset classes: https://beta.tradingfloor.com/publications/quarterly-outlook
About Saxo Bank
Saxo Bank is a leading online trading and investment specialist, offering private investors and institutional clients a complete set of tools for their trading and investment strategies. Its financial community portal, TradingFloor.com, is the first multi-asset social trading platform. A fully licensed and regulated European bank, Saxo Bank enables clients to trade FX, CFDs, ETFs, Stocks, Futures, Options and other derivatives on our award-winning SaxoTrader platform, accessible on PCs, tablets or smartphones through a single account and available in more than 20 languages. The platform is white-labelled by more than 100 major financial institutions worldwide. Saxo Bank also offers professional portfolio and fund management as well as traditional banking services through Saxo Privatbank. Founded in 1992, Saxo Bank is headquartered in Copenhagen and has offices in 25 countries throughout Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, Africa and Australia.
SOURCE Saxo Bank
Companies can harness IoT and predictive analytics to sustain business continuity; predict and manage site performance during emergencies; minimize expensive reactive maintenance; and forecast equipment and maintenance budgets and expenditures. Providing cost-effective, uninterrupted service is challenging, particularly for organizations with geographically dispersed operations.
Feb. 14, 2016 10:00 AM EST Reads: 104
Advances in technology and ubiquitous connectivity have made the utilization of a dispersed workforce more common. Whether that remote team is located across the street or country, management styles/ approaches will have to be adjusted to accommodate this new dynamic. In his session at 17th Cloud Expo, Sagi Brody, Chief Technology Officer at Webair Internet Development Inc., focused on the challenges of managing remote teams, providing real-world examples that demonstrate what works and what do...
Feb. 14, 2016 10:00 AM EST Reads: 368
As enterprises work to take advantage of Big Data technologies, they frequently become distracted by product-level decisions. In most new Big Data builds this approach is completely counter-productive: it presupposes tools that may not be a fit for development teams, forces IT to take on the burden of evaluating and maintaining unfamiliar technology, and represents a major up-front expense. In his session at @BigDataExpo at @ThingsExpo, Andrew Warfield, CTO and Co-Founder of Coho Data, will dis...
Feb. 14, 2016 10:00 AM EST Reads: 238
When building large, cloud-based applications that operate at a high scale, it’s important to maintain a high availability and resilience to failures. In order to do that, you must be tolerant of failures, even in light of failures in other areas of your application. “Fly two mistakes high” is an old adage in the radio control airplane hobby. It means, fly high enough so that if you make a mistake, you can continue flying with room to still make mistakes. In his session at 18th Cloud Expo, Lee...
Feb. 14, 2016 09:15 AM EST
The Quantified Economy represents the total global addressable market (TAM) for IoT that, according to a recent IDC report, will grow to an unprecedented $1.3 trillion by 2019. With this the third wave of the Internet-global proliferation of connected devices, appliances and sensors is poised to take off in 2016. In his session at @ThingsExpo, David McLauchlan, CEO and co-founder of Buddy Platform, will discuss how the ability to access and analyze the massive volume of streaming data from mil...
Feb. 14, 2016 09:00 AM EST Reads: 103
Predictive analytics tools monitor, report, and troubleshoot in order to make proactive decisions about the health, performance, and utilization of storage. Most enterprises combine cloud and on-premise storage, resulting in blended environments of physical, virtual, cloud, and other platforms, which justifies more sophisticated storage analytics. In his session at 18th Cloud Expo, Peter McCallum, Vice President of Datacenter Solutions at FalconStor, will discuss using predictive analytics to ...
Feb. 14, 2016 08:45 AM EST Reads: 428
WebSocket is effectively a persistent and fat pipe that is compatible with a standard web infrastructure; a "TCP for the Web." If you think of WebSocket in this light, there are other more hugely interesting applications of WebSocket than just simply sending data to a browser. In his session at 18th Cloud Expo, Frank Greco, Director of Technology for Kaazing Corporation, will compare other modern web connectivity methods such as HTTP/2, HTTP Streaming, Server-Sent Events and new W3C event APIs ...
Feb. 14, 2016 08:30 AM EST
Join us at Cloud Expo | @ThingsExpo 2016 – June 7-9 at the Javits Center in New York City and November 1-3 at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA – and deliver your unique message in a way that is striking and unforgettable by taking advantage of SYS-CON's unmatched high-impact, result-driven event / media packages.
Feb. 14, 2016 08:30 AM EST Reads: 118
At first adopted by enterprises to consolidate physical servers, virtualization is now widely used in cloud computing to offer elasticity and scalability. On the other hand, Docker has developed a new way to handle Linux containers, inspired by version control software such as Git, which allows you to keep all development versions. In his session at 17th Cloud Expo, Dominique Rodrigues, the co-founder and CTO of Nanocloud Software, discussed how in order to also handle QEMU / KVM virtual machin...
Feb. 14, 2016 08:15 AM EST Reads: 164
SYS-CON Events announced today that FalconStor Software® Inc., a 15-year innovator of software-defined storage solutions, will exhibit at SYS-CON's 18th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. FalconStor Software®, Inc. (NASDAQ: FALC) is a leading software-defined storage company offering a converged, hardware-agnostic, software-defined storage and data services platform. Its flagship solution FreeStor®, utilizes a horizonta...
Feb. 14, 2016 07:30 AM EST
Silver Spring Networks, Inc. (NYSE: SSNI) extended its Internet of Things technology platform with performance enhancements to Gen5 – its fifth generation critical infrastructure networking platform. Already delivering nearly 23 million devices on five continents as one of the leading networking providers in the market, Silver Spring announced it is doubling the maximum speed of its Gen5 network to up to 2.4 Mbps, increasing computational performance by 10x, supporting simultaneous mesh communic...
Feb. 14, 2016 05:00 AM EST
Sensors and effectors of IoT are solving problems in new ways, but small businesses have been slow to join the quantified world. They’ll need information from IoT using applications as varied as the businesses themselves. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Roger Meike, Distinguished Engineer, Director of Technology Innovation at Intuit, showed how IoT manufacturers can use open standards, public APIs and custom apps to enable the Quantified Small Business. He used a Raspberry Pi to connect sensors...
Feb. 14, 2016 04:30 AM EST Reads: 408
The cloud promises new levels of agility and cost-savings for Big Data, data warehousing and analytics. But it’s challenging to understand all the options – from IaaS and PaaS to newer services like HaaS (Hadoop as a Service) and BDaaS (Big Data as a Service). In her session at @BigDataExpo at @ThingsExpo, Hannah Smalltree, a director at Cazena, will provide an educational overview of emerging “as-a-service” options for Big Data in the cloud. This is critical background for IT and data profes...
Feb. 14, 2016 04:00 AM EST Reads: 264
Father business cycles and digital consumers are forcing enterprises to respond faster to customer needs and competitive demands. Successful integration of DevOps and Agile development will be key for business success in today’s digital economy. In his session at DevOps Summit, Pradeep Prabhu, Co-Founder & CEO of Cloudmunch, covered the critical practices that enterprises should consider to seamlessly integrate Agile and DevOps processes, barriers to implementing this in the enterprise, and pr...
Feb. 14, 2016 04:00 AM EST Reads: 494
Eighty percent of a data scientist’s time is spent gathering and cleaning up data, and 80% of all data is unstructured and almost never analyzed. Cognitive computing, in combination with Big Data, is changing the equation by creating data reservoirs and using natural language processing to enable analysis of unstructured data sources. This is impacting every aspect of the analytics profession from how data is mined (and by whom) to how it is delivered. This is not some futuristic vision: it's ha...
Feb. 14, 2016 03:45 AM EST Reads: 484