Click here to close now.


News Feed Item

Saxo Bank Publishes its Investment Outlook for Q2 2014

HELLERUP, Denmark, April 3, 2014 /PRNewswire/ --

Saxo Bank, the online multi-asset trading and investment specialist, has published its second quarterly insight for 2014, focusing on the outlook for Europe.

European outlook: A United States of Europe? 

Following an abundance of false starts, the European economy is likely to encounter further challenges in Q2, Saxo Bank writes in its second quarterly insight for 2014. By the end of the second quarter, the European Central Bank is likely to grow increasingly concerned about deflation and the lack of growth and signal new quantitative easing and yet another set of unconventional measures.

As well, Europe faces its biggest electoral challenge since the 1970s, as the reality gap between Europe's voters and their EU-friendly politicians is wider than ever. At the May EU parliamentary elections, look for EU sceptic parties to form one of the largest overall blocs in the new European Parliament. If Brussels listens to voters, it could mark a decisive turning point for the failing EU experiment, even if for now, the political status quo is more likely to maintain the upper hand.

While the economic outlook appears to be improving for Spain, Portugal and Greece, this is really part of an internal transfer of problems from these 'Club Med' countries to France and soon Germany, which is likely to flirt with recession by the end of the year. France and Germany are also likely to suffer from reduced exports, particularly in the luxury goods sector, as Asian growth cools.

Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist and CIO for Saxo Bank, commented:

"The EU member countries have surprised with their political solidarity over the last few years of the EU crisis, but the electorate is growing restless and EU-sceptic parties are making huge inroads that the establishment must recognise. Beside this we have the eternal problem that the EU entirely lacks an economic foundation that is sound and long term. Here in early 2014, EU complacency has never been higher, just as real political and popular entropy is about to make its presence felt."

Global outlook: a 'state of flux' 

The 'Fragile Five" (South Africa, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey), which with the recent additions of Argentina, Russia and Chile have become the "Fragile Eight", are now in the process of rebalancing, as the Fed tapering has forced their currencies weaker and required policy tightening that will crimp growth and right the structural imbalances that have grown in recent years. This "state of flux" is a positive development overall, but too many countries and economies are trying to do the same thing simultaneously - devalue and increase exports - so growth is likely to weaken structurally and cyclically due to prior credit excesses.

As Jakobsen points outs, "We have been so focused on saving the world, the banks and the political system that we have underinvested in people, education, infrastructure, innovation and technology.

"It will not be the European Parliamentary elections that make or break the EU, but how the policymakers and their trusted mandarins respond to the slowdown and subsequent rebalancing of the world."

Key points on investments for 2014: 

Fixed income: core government bonds will be the only asset that is up Q1 2014 versus Q1 2015 (rebalancing and lack of productivity).

Foreign exchange: EURUSD will peak at about 1.4000/1.4050and then turn down to 1.2500 (the ECB should get active on deflation over the summer). USDJPY could see 95.00 on a VAT hike and initial signs of Abenomics failing. The "Fragile Eight" will drop another 5 percent.

Commodities: will do well through Q2 as real rates will drop, but could fall again heading into H1 2015.Will take profit in Q3 2014.

Equity: The S&P 500 will peak at about 1,900-1,950, then a 30 percent correction. Equities are the only asset not yet hurt by the changing economic cycle.

Consult Saxo Bank's full quarterly outlook for Steen Jakobsen's article in full, alongside additional outlooks for individual asset classes

About Saxo Bank  

Saxo Bank is a leading online trading and investment specialist, offering private investors and institutional clients a complete set of tools for their trading and investment strategies. Its financial community portal,, is the first multi-asset social trading platform. A fully licensed and regulated European bank, Saxo Bank enables clients to trade FX, CFDs, ETFs, Stocks, Futures, Options and other derivatives on our award-winning SaxoTrader platform, accessible on PCs, tablets or smartphones through a single account and available in more than 20 languages. The platform is white-labelled by more than 100 major financial institutions worldwide. Saxo Bank also offers professional portfolio and fund management as well as traditional banking services through Saxo Privatbank. Founded in 1992, Saxo Bank is headquartered in Copenhagen and has offices in 25 countries throughout Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, Africa and Australia.

SOURCE Saxo Bank

More Stories By PR Newswire

Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Latest Stories
The Internet of Things (IoT) is growing rapidly by extending current technologies, products and networks. By 2020, Cisco estimates there will be 50 billion connected devices. Gartner has forecast revenues of over $300 billion, just to IoT suppliers. Now is the time to figure out how you’ll make money – not just create innovative products. With hundreds of new products and companies jumping into the IoT fray every month, there’s no shortage of innovation. Despite this, McKinsey/VisionMobile data...
"eFolder does a lot of different things but we protect data and we are focused on protecting data no matter where it resides," explained Carlo Tapia, Product Marketing Manager at eFolder, in this interview at Cloud Expo, held November 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Cloud computing is unquestionably one of the driving forces of DevOps, as the automation of operations transforms enterprise software development. DevOps, however, is more than a technology trend, as it represents a move toward silo-busting, self-organizing horizontal teams that drive business velocity. At the same time, enterprise Digital Transformation represents an upheaval across the enterprise, as customer preferences and behavior drive enterprise technology decisions. This transformation ...
Just over a week ago I received a long and loud sustained applause for a presentation I delivered at this year’s Cloud Expo in Santa Clara. I was extremely pleased with the turnout and had some very good conversations with many of the attendees. Over the next few days I had many more meaningful conversations and was not only happy with the results but also learned a few new things. Here is everything I learned in those three days distilled into three short points.
Most of the IoT Gateway scenarios involve collecting data from machines/processing and pushing data upstream to cloud for further analytics. The gateway hardware varies from Raspberry Pi to Industrial PCs. The document states the process of allowing deploying polyglot data pipelining software with the clear notion of supporting immutability. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Shashank Jain, a development architect for SAP Labs, discussed the objective, which is to automate the IoT deployment proces...
DevOps is about increasing efficiency, but nothing is more inefficient than building the same application twice. However, this is a routine occurrence with enterprise applications that need both a rich desktop web interface and strong mobile support. With recent technological advances from Isomorphic Software and others, rich desktop and tuned mobile experiences can now be created with a single codebase – without compromising functionality, performance or usability. In his session at DevOps Su...
In demand-intensive mobile and web applications, an emerging pattern is to host the Systems of Engagement in the cloud (for maximum responsiveness) but keep the Systems of Record with the other important business systems in the company datacenter, often on a tightly secured mainframe. But what about the space in between? In this IBM Redpaper publication, we show that the IBM Bluemix cloud platform offers technologies that make it easy for cloud-based SoEs to securely connect to on-premises IBM...
As organizations realize the scope of the Internet of Things, gaining key insights from Big Data, through the use of advanced analytics, becomes crucial. However, IoT also creates the need for petabyte scale storage of data from millions of devices. A new type of Storage is required which seamlessly integrates robust data analytics with massive scale. These storage systems will act as “smart systems” provide in-place analytics that speed discovery and enable businesses to quickly derive meaningf...
In his keynote at @ThingsExpo, Chris Matthieu, Director of IoT Engineering at Citrix and co-founder and CTO of Octoblu, focused on building an IoT platform and company. He provided a behind-the-scenes look at Octoblu’s platform, business, and pivots along the way (including the Citrix acquisition of Octoblu).
In his General Session at 17th Cloud Expo, Bruce Swann, Senior Product Marketing Manager for Adobe Campaign, explored the key ingredients of cross-channel marketing in a digital world. Learn how the Adobe Marketing Cloud can help marketers embrace opportunities for personalized, relevant and real-time customer engagement across offline (direct mail, point of sale, call center) and digital (email, website, SMS, mobile apps, social networks, connected objects).
OpsHub, Inc. has announced enhanced support for DevOps and Migration for both Team Foundation Server and Visual Studio On-line in a heterogeneous environment. With added support for build and release entities in OpsHub Integration Manager (OIM) Microsoft customers can now leverage Visual Studio build and release services to manage DevOps processes in a heterogeneous environment. With the enhanced support customers can manage the DevOps process in Team Foundation Server while undertaking activit...
The buzz continues for cloud, data analytics and the Internet of Things (IoT) and their collective impact across all industries. But a new conversation is emerging - how do companies use industry disruption and technology enablers to lead in markets undergoing change, uncertainty and ambiguity? Organizations of all sizes need to evolve and transform, often under massive pressure, as industry lines blur and merge and traditional business models are assaulted and turned upside down. In this new da...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Catchpoint, a global leader in monitoring, and testing the performance of online applications, has been named "Silver Sponsor" of DevOps Summit New York, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016 at the Javits Center in New York City. Catchpoint radically transforms the way businesses manage, monitor, and test the performance of online applications. Truly understand and improve user experience with clear visibility into complex, distributed online systems.Founde...
With all the incredible momentum behind the Internet of Things (IoT) industry, it is easy to forget that not a single CEO wakes up and wonders if “my IoT is broken.” What they wonder is if they are making the right decisions to do all they can to increase revenue, decrease costs, and improve customer experience – effectively the same challenges they have always had in growing their business. The exciting thing about the IoT industry is now these decisions can be better, faster, and smarter. Now ...
In recent years, at least 40% of companies using cloud applications have experienced data loss. One of the best prevention against cloud data loss is backing up your cloud data. In his General Session at 17th Cloud Expo, Sam McIntyre, Partner Enablement Specialist at eFolder, presented how organizations can use eFolder Cloudfinder to automate backups of cloud application data. He also demonstrated how easy it is to search and restore cloud application data using Cloudfinder.