|By PR Newswire||
|April 3, 2014 04:44 AM EDT||
HELLERUP, Denmark, April 3, 2014 /PRNewswire/ --
Saxo Bank, the online multi-asset trading and investment specialist, has published its second quarterly insight for 2014, focusing on the outlook for Europe.
European outlook: A United States of Europe?
Following an abundance of false starts, the European economy is likely to encounter further challenges in Q2, Saxo Bank writes in its second quarterly insight for 2014. By the end of the second quarter, the European Central Bank is likely to grow increasingly concerned about deflation and the lack of growth and signal new quantitative easing and yet another set of unconventional measures.
As well, Europe faces its biggest electoral challenge since the 1970s, as the reality gap between Europe's voters and their EU-friendly politicians is wider than ever. At the May EU parliamentary elections, look for EU sceptic parties to form one of the largest overall blocs in the new European Parliament. If Brussels listens to voters, it could mark a decisive turning point for the failing EU experiment, even if for now, the political status quo is more likely to maintain the upper hand.
While the economic outlook appears to be improving for Spain, Portugal and Greece, this is really part of an internal transfer of problems from these 'Club Med' countries to France and soon Germany, which is likely to flirt with recession by the end of the year. France and Germany are also likely to suffer from reduced exports, particularly in the luxury goods sector, as Asian growth cools.
Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist and CIO for Saxo Bank, commented:
"The EU member countries have surprised with their political solidarity over the last few years of the EU crisis, but the electorate is growing restless and EU-sceptic parties are making huge inroads that the establishment must recognise. Beside this we have the eternal problem that the EU entirely lacks an economic foundation that is sound and long term. Here in early 2014, EU complacency has never been higher, just as real political and popular entropy is about to make its presence felt."
Global outlook: a 'state of flux'
The 'Fragile Five" (South Africa, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey), which with the recent additions of Argentina, Russia and Chile have become the "Fragile Eight", are now in the process of rebalancing, as the Fed tapering has forced their currencies weaker and required policy tightening that will crimp growth and right the structural imbalances that have grown in recent years. This "state of flux" is a positive development overall, but too many countries and economies are trying to do the same thing simultaneously - devalue and increase exports - so growth is likely to weaken structurally and cyclically due to prior credit excesses.
As Jakobsen points outs, "We have been so focused on saving the world, the banks and the political system that we have underinvested in people, education, infrastructure, innovation and technology.
"It will not be the European Parliamentary elections that make or break the EU, but how the policymakers and their trusted mandarins respond to the slowdown and subsequent rebalancing of the world."
Key points on investments for 2014:
Fixed income: core government bonds will be the only asset that is up Q1 2014 versus Q1 2015 (rebalancing and lack of productivity).
Foreign exchange: EURUSD will peak at about 1.4000/1.4050and then turn down to 1.2500 (the ECB should get active on deflation over the summer). USDJPY could see 95.00 on a VAT hike and initial signs of Abenomics failing. The "Fragile Eight" will drop another 5 percent.
Commodities: will do well through Q2 as real rates will drop, but could fall again heading into H1 2015.Will take profit in Q3 2014.
Equity: The S&P 500 will peak at about 1,900-1,950, then a 30 percent correction. Equities are the only asset not yet hurt by the changing economic cycle.
Consult Saxo Bank's full quarterly outlook for Steen Jakobsen's article in full, alongside additional outlooks for individual asset classes: https://beta.tradingfloor.com/publications/quarterly-outlook
About Saxo Bank
Saxo Bank is a leading online trading and investment specialist, offering private investors and institutional clients a complete set of tools for their trading and investment strategies. Its financial community portal, TradingFloor.com, is the first multi-asset social trading platform. A fully licensed and regulated European bank, Saxo Bank enables clients to trade FX, CFDs, ETFs, Stocks, Futures, Options and other derivatives on our award-winning SaxoTrader platform, accessible on PCs, tablets or smartphones through a single account and available in more than 20 languages. The platform is white-labelled by more than 100 major financial institutions worldwide. Saxo Bank also offers professional portfolio and fund management as well as traditional banking services through Saxo Privatbank. Founded in 1992, Saxo Bank is headquartered in Copenhagen and has offices in 25 countries throughout Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, Africa and Australia.
SOURCE Saxo Bank
Palerra, the cloud security automation company, announced enhanced support for Amazon AWS, allowing IT security and DevOps teams to automate activity and configuration monitoring, anomaly detection, and orchestrated remediation, thereby meeting compliance mandates within complex infrastructure deployments. "Monitoring and threat detection for AWS is a non-trivial task. While Amazon's flexible environment facilitates successful DevOps implementations, it adds another layer, which can become a ...
Jul. 31, 2015 10:15 PM EDT Reads: 298
With SaaS use rampant across organizations, how can IT departments track company data and maintain security? More and more departments are commissioning their own solutions and bypassing IT. A cloud environment is amorphous and powerful, allowing you to set up solutions for all of your user needs: document sharing and collaboration, mobile access, e-mail, even industry-specific applications. In his session at 16th Cloud Expo, Shawn Mills, President and a founder of Green House Data, discussed h...
Jul. 31, 2015 04:30 PM EDT Reads: 424
The Software Defined Data Center (SDDC), which enables organizations to seamlessly run in a hybrid cloud model (public + private cloud), is here to stay. IDC estimates that the software-defined networking market will be valued at $3.7 billion by 2016. Security is a key component and benefit of the SDDC, and offers an opportunity to build security 'from the ground up' and weave it into the environment from day one. In his session at 16th Cloud Expo, Reuven Harrison, CTO and Co-Founder of Tufin,...
Jul. 31, 2015 03:00 PM EDT Reads: 493
SYS-CON Events announced today that MobiDev, a software development company, will exhibit at the 17th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. MobiDev is a software development company with representative offices in Atlanta (US), Sheffield (UK) and Würzburg (Germany); and development centers in Ukraine. Since 2009 it has grown from a small group of passionate engineers and business managers to a full-scale mobi...
Jul. 31, 2015 02:30 PM EDT Reads: 276
There are many considerations when moving applications from on-premise to cloud. It is critical to understand the benefits and also challenges of this migration. A successful migration will result in lower Total Cost of Ownership, yet offer the same or higher level of robustness. In his session at 15th Cloud Expo, Michael Meiner, an Engineering Director at Oracle, Corporation, analyzed a range of cloud offerings (IaaS, PaaS, SaaS) and discussed the benefits/challenges of migrating to each offe...
Jul. 31, 2015 02:30 PM EDT
Chuck Piluso presented a study of cloud adoption trends and the power and flexibility of IBM Power and Pureflex cloud solutions. Prior to Secure Infrastructure and Services, Mr. Piluso founded North American Telecommunication Corporation, a facilities-based Competitive Local Exchange Carrier licensed by the Public Service Commission in 10 states, serving as the company's chairman and president from 1997 to 2000. Between 1990 and 1997, Mr. Piluso served as chairman & founder of International Te...
Jul. 31, 2015 02:00 PM EDT Reads: 366
Mobile, social, Big Data, and cloud have fundamentally changed the way we live. “Anytime, anywhere” access to data and information is no longer a luxury; it’s a requirement, in both our personal and professional lives. For IT organizations, this means pressure has never been greater to deliver meaningful services to the business and customers.
Jul. 31, 2015 01:45 PM EDT Reads: 101
In a recent research, analyst firm IDC found that the average cost of a critical application failure is $500,000 to $1 million per hour and the average total cost of unplanned application downtime is $1.25 billion to $2.5 billion per year for Fortune 1000 companies. In addition to the findings on the cost of the downtime, the research also highlighted best practices for development, testing, application support, infrastructure, and operations teams.
Jul. 31, 2015 11:45 AM EDT Reads: 122
In their session at 17th Cloud Expo, Hal Schwartz, CEO of Secure Infrastructure & Services (SIAS), and Chuck Paolillo, CTO of Secure Infrastructure & Services (SIAS), provide a study of cloud adoption trends and the power and flexibility of IBM Power and Pureflex cloud solutions. In his role as CEO of Secure Infrastructure & Services (SIAS), Hal Schwartz provides leadership and direction for the company.
Jul. 31, 2015 11:45 AM EDT Reads: 132
Puppet Labs has announced the next major update to its flagship product: Puppet Enterprise 2015.2. This release includes new features providing DevOps teams with clarity, simplicity and additional management capabilities, including an all-new user interface, an interactive graph for visualizing infrastructure code, a new unified agent and broader infrastructure support.
Jul. 31, 2015 10:00 AM EDT Reads: 146
For IoT to grow as quickly as analyst firms’ project, a lot is going to fall on developers to quickly bring applications to market. But the lack of a standard development platform threatens to slow growth and make application development more time consuming and costly, much like we’ve seen in the mobile space. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Mike Weiner, Product Manager of the Omega DevCloud with KORE Telematics Inc., discussed the evolving requirements for developers as IoT matures and conducte...
Jul. 31, 2015 08:45 AM EDT Reads: 304
Container technology is sending shock waves through the world of cloud computing. Heralded as the 'next big thing,' containers provide software owners a consistent way to package their software and dependencies while infrastructure operators benefit from a standard way to deploy and run them. Containers present new challenges for tracking usage due to their dynamic nature. They can also be deployed to bare metal, virtual machines and various cloud platforms. How do software owners track the usag...
Jul. 31, 2015 08:00 AM EDT Reads: 162
Explosive growth in connected devices. Enormous amounts of data for collection and analysis. Critical use of data for split-second decision making and actionable information. All three are factors in making the Internet of Things a reality. Yet, any one factor would have an IT organization pondering its infrastructure strategy. How should your organization enhance its IT framework to enable an Internet of Things implementation? In his session at @ThingsExpo, James Kirkland, Red Hat's Chief Arch...
Jul. 30, 2015 07:30 PM EDT Reads: 1,401
Providing the needed data for application development and testing is a huge headache for most organizations. The problems are often the same across companies - speed, quality, cost, and control. Provisioning data can take days or weeks, every time a refresh is required. Using dummy data leads to quality problems. Creating physical copies of large data sets and sending them to distributed teams of developers eats up expensive storage and bandwidth resources. And, all of these copies proliferating...
Jul. 30, 2015 06:30 PM EDT Reads: 894
Malicious agents are moving faster than the speed of business. Even more worrisome, most companies are relying on legacy approaches to security that are no longer capable of meeting current threats. In the modern cloud, threat diversity is rapidly expanding, necessitating more sophisticated security protocols than those used in the past or in desktop environments. Yet companies are falling for cloud security myths that were truths at one time but have evolved out of existence.
Jul. 30, 2015 06:00 PM EDT Reads: 1,807