Welcome!

News Feed Item

New Report Predicts Sustained Strong Gold Demand In China In Next Four Years

NEW YORK, April 15, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- A major report published today by the World Gold Council "China's gold market: progress and prospects" suggests that private sector demand for gold in China is set to increase from the current level of 1,132 tonnes(t)1 per year to at least 1,350t by 20172. Following the record level of Chinese demand in 2013, which saw the country become the world's largest gold market, the report suggests that while 2014 is likely to see consolidation, the succeeding years are likely to see sustained growth.

The report examines the factors that have driven China's rise to become the number one producer and consumer of gold since the market began liberalising in the late 1990s. It also highlights why despite this steep growth in demand, the market will continue to expand, irrespective of short term blips in the economy.

The next six years will see China's middle class grow by over 60%, or 200m people, to a total of 500 million. Comparing this to the total population of the US, which stands at 319m, puts the size of this new market of affluent consumers, with the propensity to buy gold, in perspective.

In addition to these newly emerging middle classes, rising real incomes, a deepening pool of private savings and rapid urbanisation across China suggest that the outlook for gold jewellery and investment demand in the next four years will remain strong.

Albert Cheng, Managing Director of the Far East at the World Gold Council said:

"Since liberalisation of the gold market began in the late 1990s and the subsequent offering of gold bullion products by local commercial banks from 2004, we have witnessed astonishing increases in demand for gold from consumers across the country. The cultural affinity for gold runs deep in China and when this is combined with an increasingly affluent population and a supportive government, there is significant room for the market to grow even further. The country is now at the centre of the global gold eco-system."

"Whilst China faces important challenges as it seeks to sustain economic growth and liberalise its financial system, growth in personal incomes and the public's pool of savings should support a medium term increase in the demand for gold, in both jewellery and investment."

The key findings from the research include the following:

  • China's continuing urbanisation means that it now has 170 cities with more than one million inhabitants3 - within these cities, the middle classes currently number 300million and are set to grow to 500million by 2020. Demand for gold amongst those with a greater disposable income and limited investment opportunities will continue to grow.
  • Chinese savings levels remain high – there is an estimated US$7.5 trillion in Chinese bank accounts and household allocations to gold remain small, around $300bn. Gold is seen as a stable, accessible investment by consumers, particularly in the light of rising house prices and a lack of alternative savings options. Chinese investors have a preference for physical gold over paper, with investment focused on small bars, gift bars or Gold Accumulation Plans (GAPs). New gold investment products mean that medium term demand for bars and coins could reach close to 500t by 2017 – a rise of nearly 25% above its record level last year.
  • China has become the world's number one jewellery market, nearly trebling in size over the past decade – at 669t in 2013, it accounts for 30% of global jewellery demand. Estimates suggest that demand will continue to grow and reach 780t by 2017. There are now over 100,000 retail outlets selling 24k gold and thousands of manufacturers nationwide.
  • Consumer sentiment toward gold is unwavering – although 40% of jewellery consumption relates to weddings, the appetite for gold in China goes beyond occasions and gift giving. 80% of consumers surveyed for this report planned to maintain or increase their spending on 24-carat gold jewellery over the next 12 months believing that gold will hold its long-term value and because they expect to have a higher level of disposable income.
  • Chinese electronics demand for gold will see small gains in the next four years – industrial demand has grown with electronics being the key driver (climbing from 16t in 2003 to 66t in 20134). China is also the leading market for gold related patents such as the use of nanogold in healthcare.
  • Official gold holdings in China totalled 1,054t at the end of 2013 making the country the world's sixth largest holder of bullion- based on this declared stock, gold represents 1% of China's total official reserves (down from a peak of almost 2% in 2012) due to the rapid growth of the country's foreign exchange holdings which reached around US$3.8 trillion at the end of 2013. Speculation continues as to whether the Chinese government has increased its gold holdings.
  • China has gone from being a minor producer to the world's largest source of mined gold - in the past ten years production has doubled from 217t to 437t.

Follow the World Gold Council @GOLDCOUNCIL and download the full report at http://www.gold.org/supply-and-demand/china-report

For further information please contact:

James Murray

World Gold Council

T   +44 (0) 207 826 4754

M  +44 (0) 7834524069

E   [email protected]

Rose Beynon

Edelman

T   +44 (0) 203 047 2149

M  +44 (0) 7870 907 596

E   [email protected]

Notes to Editors

Methodology

The World Gold Council commissioned Precious Metals Insights (PMI) to lead the research into the outlook for Chinese gold demand over the medium term (defined as 2014-2017 for the purpose of this report) and to compose this report that details its findings.  Philip Klapwijk, founder and Managing Director of PMI, is a veteran of the gold market, with a wealth of experience through his time as Executive Chairman of GFMS and Head of Global Metals Analytics at Thomson Reuters GFMS. The research is a synthesis of his intimate knowledge of the Chinese gold market and the World Gold Council's expertise.

This was complemented by a series of in-depth interviews PMI and the World Gold Council jointly undertook with a number of key gold market participants in Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing. In addition, the report draws upon the extensive consumer research the World Gold Council has undertaken over recent years. This includes:

  • A comprehensive usage and attitudes study of over 10,000 Chinese consumers' relationship with gold jewellery undertaken in 2011 (TNS).
  • A piece of regular research from May 2013 to March 2014 with a series of waves asking Chinese consumers about their outlook for gold prices and intentions to buy gold jewellery over the next 12 months (Kadence).
  • A snapshot of 1,000 Chinese consumers to understand what motivates them to buy gold jewellery and bullion (TNS).

The collective knowledge of PMI and the World Gold Council, combined with extensive consumer research and industry expertise, has resulted in a detailed and insightful piece of analysis.

Key Forecast Assumptions

The forecasts for jewellery consumption and investment demand prepared for this report by PMI are based on several key assumptions:

  • Chinese GDP growth slows to an annual average rate of 6% between 2014-17. As the Chinese economy becomes larger and more mature its natural rate of growth will decline. Since 2009 the most important source of growth has been credit-driven fixed investment. This has become a less efficient means of generating additional gains in GDP. The transition towards an economic model where consumption plays a greater role in GDP is likely to result in lower GDP growth rates.
  • Private consumption is forecast to grow at an average 7.5% per annum over 2014-17. The gradual shift towards a more consumption driven economic model will require the rate of private consumption growth to exceed that for overall GDP. Growth in private consumption will be constrained by an only slow decline in China's exceptionally high household savings rate.
  • The probability of a financial crisis occurring over the medium term is considered high and growing. This risk stems from over-rapid credit growth and significant 'malinvestment'. A financial crisis is forecast to lower both GDP and private consumption growth over the 2014-17 period. (The precise timing and impact in any one year is impossible to forecast and so a loss of 2% of GDP is averaged out over the four years in question.)
  • Inflation is expected to remain under control (below 5%) over the medium term but inflation expectations could well grow because of the massive monetary easing that would almost certainly be undertaken in the wake of a financial crisis occurring in China.
  • No major change to the RMB exchange rate is forecast over the medium term. A modest appreciation is expected in 2014 but in 2015-17 there could be a shift to a moderate depreciation. This can be expected because (initially) there may be a period of general US dollar appreciation. In addition, a financial crisis may impact the renminbi negatively. The authorities could also use currency depreciation as a means of softening the blow from such a crisis, as this would assist the export sector.
  • PMI's gold price assumption for this forecast is that 2014 sees a generally 'weak' trend. However, the expectation is that during the following three years gold prices will tend to recover, reaching an annual average of around US$ 1,500 in 2017.

World Gold Council
The World Gold Council is the market development organisation for the gold industry. Working within the investment, jewellery and technology sectors, as well as engaging in government affairs, our purpose is to provide industry leadership, whilst stimulating and sustaining demand for gold.

We develop gold-backed solutions, services and markets, based on true market insight. As a result, we create structural shifts in demand for gold across key market sectors.

We provide insights into the international gold markets, helping people to better understand the wealth preservation qualities of gold and its role in meeting the social and environmental needs of society.

Based in the UK, with operations in India, the Far East, Europe and the US, the World Gold Council is an association whose members include the world's leading and most forward thinking gold mining companies.

1 Thomson Reuters GFMS. This compares with the China Gold Association's estimate of 1,176.4t.
2 Precious Metals Insights
3 National Bureau of Statistics
4 Precious Metals Insights estimate based upon Thomson Reuters GFMS data

SOURCE World Gold Council

More Stories By PR Newswire

Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Latest Stories
As businesses evolve, they need technology that is simple to help them succeed today and flexible enough to help them build for tomorrow. Chrome is fit for the workplace of the future — providing a secure, consistent user experience across a range of devices that can be used anywhere. In her session at 21st Cloud Expo, Vidya Nagarajan, a Senior Product Manager at Google, will take a look at various options as to how ChromeOS can be leveraged to interact with people on the devices, and formats th...
First generation hyperconverged solutions have taken the data center by storm, rapidly proliferating in pockets everywhere to provide further consolidation of floor space and workloads. These first generation solutions are not without challenges, however. In his session at 21st Cloud Expo, Wes Talbert, a Principal Architect and results-driven enterprise sales leader at NetApp, will discuss how the HCI solution of tomorrow will integrate with the public cloud to deliver a quality hybrid cloud e...
Is advanced scheduling in Kubernetes achievable? Yes, however, how do you properly accommodate every real-life scenario that a Kubernetes user might encounter? How do you leverage advanced scheduling techniques to shape and describe each scenario in easy-to-use rules and configurations? In his session at @DevOpsSummit at 21st Cloud Expo, Oleg Chunikhin, CTO at Kublr, will answer these questions and demonstrate techniques for implementing advanced scheduling. For example, using spot instances ...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Yuasa System will exhibit at the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) Pavilion at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Yuasa System is introducing a multi-purpose endurance testing system for flexible displays, OLED devices, flexible substrates, flat cables, and films in smartphones, wearables, automobiles, and healthcare.
SYS-CON Events announced today that Taica will exhibit at the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) Pavilion at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Taica manufacturers Alpha-GEL brand silicone components and materials, which maintain outstanding performance over a wide temperature range -40C to +200C. For more information, visit http://www.taica.co.jp/english/.
As hybrid cloud becomes the de-facto standard mode of operation for most enterprises, new challenges arise on how to efficiently and economically share data across environments. In his session at 21st Cloud Expo, Dr. Allon Cohen, VP of Product at Elastifile, will explore new techniques and best practices that help enterprise IT benefit from the advantages of hybrid cloud environments by enabling data availability for both legacy enterprise and cloud-native mission critical applications. By rev...
When it comes to cloud computing, the ability to turn massive amounts of compute cores on and off on demand sounds attractive to IT staff, who need to manage peaks and valleys in user activity. With cloud bursting, the majority of the data can stay on premises while tapping into compute from public cloud providers, reducing risk and minimizing need to move large files. In his session at 18th Cloud Expo, Scott Jeschonek, Director of Product Management at Avere Systems, discussed the IT and busine...
Organizations do not need a Big Data strategy; they need a business strategy that incorporates Big Data. Most organizations lack a road map for using Big Data to optimize key business processes, deliver a differentiated customer experience, or uncover new business opportunities. They do not understand what’s possible with respect to integrating Big Data into the business model.
Companies are harnessing data in ways we once associated with science fiction. Analysts have access to a plethora of visualization and reporting tools, but considering the vast amount of data businesses collect and limitations of CPUs, end users are forced to design their structures and systems with limitations. Until now. As the cloud toolkit to analyze data has evolved, GPUs have stepped in to massively parallel SQL, visualization and machine learning.
Recently, REAN Cloud built a digital concierge for a North Carolina hospital that had observed that most patient call button questions were repetitive. In addition, the paper-based process used to measure patient health metrics was laborious, not in real-time and sometimes error-prone. In their session at 21st Cloud Expo, Sean Finnerty, Executive Director, Practice Lead, Health Care & Life Science at REAN Cloud, and Dr. S.P.T. Krishnan, Principal Architect at REAN Cloud, will discuss how they b...
Enterprises have taken advantage of IoT to achieve important revenue and cost advantages. What is less apparent is how incumbent enterprises operating at scale have, following success with IoT, built analytic, operations management and software development capabilities – ranging from autonomous vehicles to manageable robotics installations. They have embraced these capabilities as if they were Silicon Valley startups. As a result, many firms employ new business models that place enormous impor...
The next XaaS is CICDaaS. Why? Because CICD saves developers a huge amount of time. CD is an especially great option for projects that require multiple and frequent contributions to be integrated. But… securing CICD best practices is an emerging, essential, yet little understood practice for DevOps teams and their Cloud Service Providers. The only way to get CICD to work in a highly secure environment takes collaboration, patience and persistence. Building CICD in the cloud requires rigorous a...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Dasher Technologies will exhibit at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct 31 - Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Dasher Technologies, Inc. ® is a premier IT solution provider that delivers expert technical resources along with trusted account executives to architect and deliver complete IT solutions and services to help our clients execute their goals, plans and objectives. Since 1999, we'v...
SYS-CON Events announced today that MIRAI Inc. will exhibit at the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) Pavilion at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. MIRAI Inc. are IT consultants from the public sector whose mission is to solve social issues by technology and innovation and to create a meaningful future for people.
Data scientists must access high-performance computing resources across a wide-area network. To achieve cloud-based HPC visualization, researchers must transfer datasets and visualization results efficiently. HPC clusters now compute GPU-accelerated visualization in the cloud cluster. To efficiently display results remotely, a high-performance, low-latency protocol transfers the display from the cluster to a remote desktop. Further, tools to easily mount remote datasets and efficiently transfer...