Click here to close now.

Welcome!

News Feed Item

New Report Predicts Sustained Strong Gold Demand In China In Next Four Years

NEW YORK, April 15, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- A major report published today by the World Gold Council "China's gold market: progress and prospects" suggests that private sector demand for gold in China is set to increase from the current level of 1,132 tonnes(t)1 per year to at least 1,350t by 20172. Following the record level of Chinese demand in 2013, which saw the country become the world's largest gold market, the report suggests that while 2014 is likely to see consolidation, the succeeding years are likely to see sustained growth.

The report examines the factors that have driven China's rise to become the number one producer and consumer of gold since the market began liberalising in the late 1990s. It also highlights why despite this steep growth in demand, the market will continue to expand, irrespective of short term blips in the economy.

The next six years will see China's middle class grow by over 60%, or 200m people, to a total of 500 million. Comparing this to the total population of the US, which stands at 319m, puts the size of this new market of affluent consumers, with the propensity to buy gold, in perspective.

In addition to these newly emerging middle classes, rising real incomes, a deepening pool of private savings and rapid urbanisation across China suggest that the outlook for gold jewellery and investment demand in the next four years will remain strong.

Albert Cheng, Managing Director of the Far East at the World Gold Council said:

"Since liberalisation of the gold market began in the late 1990s and the subsequent offering of gold bullion products by local commercial banks from 2004, we have witnessed astonishing increases in demand for gold from consumers across the country. The cultural affinity for gold runs deep in China and when this is combined with an increasingly affluent population and a supportive government, there is significant room for the market to grow even further. The country is now at the centre of the global gold eco-system."

"Whilst China faces important challenges as it seeks to sustain economic growth and liberalise its financial system, growth in personal incomes and the public's pool of savings should support a medium term increase in the demand for gold, in both jewellery and investment."

The key findings from the research include the following:

  • China's continuing urbanisation means that it now has 170 cities with more than one million inhabitants3 - within these cities, the middle classes currently number 300million and are set to grow to 500million by 2020. Demand for gold amongst those with a greater disposable income and limited investment opportunities will continue to grow.
  • Chinese savings levels remain high – there is an estimated US$7.5 trillion in Chinese bank accounts and household allocations to gold remain small, around $300bn. Gold is seen as a stable, accessible investment by consumers, particularly in the light of rising house prices and a lack of alternative savings options. Chinese investors have a preference for physical gold over paper, with investment focused on small bars, gift bars or Gold Accumulation Plans (GAPs). New gold investment products mean that medium term demand for bars and coins could reach close to 500t by 2017 – a rise of nearly 25% above its record level last year.
  • China has become the world's number one jewellery market, nearly trebling in size over the past decade – at 669t in 2013, it accounts for 30% of global jewellery demand. Estimates suggest that demand will continue to grow and reach 780t by 2017. There are now over 100,000 retail outlets selling 24k gold and thousands of manufacturers nationwide.
  • Consumer sentiment toward gold is unwavering – although 40% of jewellery consumption relates to weddings, the appetite for gold in China goes beyond occasions and gift giving. 80% of consumers surveyed for this report planned to maintain or increase their spending on 24-carat gold jewellery over the next 12 months believing that gold will hold its long-term value and because they expect to have a higher level of disposable income.
  • Chinese electronics demand for gold will see small gains in the next four years – industrial demand has grown with electronics being the key driver (climbing from 16t in 2003 to 66t in 20134). China is also the leading market for gold related patents such as the use of nanogold in healthcare.
  • Official gold holdings in China totalled 1,054t at the end of 2013 making the country the world's sixth largest holder of bullion- based on this declared stock, gold represents 1% of China's total official reserves (down from a peak of almost 2% in 2012) due to the rapid growth of the country's foreign exchange holdings which reached around US$3.8 trillion at the end of 2013. Speculation continues as to whether the Chinese government has increased its gold holdings.
  • China has gone from being a minor producer to the world's largest source of mined gold - in the past ten years production has doubled from 217t to 437t.

Follow the World Gold Council @GOLDCOUNCIL and download the full report at http://www.gold.org/supply-and-demand/china-report

For further information please contact:

James Murray

World Gold Council

T   +44 (0) 207 826 4754

M  +44 (0) 7834524069

E   [email protected]

Rose Beynon

Edelman

T   +44 (0) 203 047 2149

M  +44 (0) 7870 907 596

E   [email protected]

Notes to Editors

Methodology

The World Gold Council commissioned Precious Metals Insights (PMI) to lead the research into the outlook for Chinese gold demand over the medium term (defined as 2014-2017 for the purpose of this report) and to compose this report that details its findings.  Philip Klapwijk, founder and Managing Director of PMI, is a veteran of the gold market, with a wealth of experience through his time as Executive Chairman of GFMS and Head of Global Metals Analytics at Thomson Reuters GFMS. The research is a synthesis of his intimate knowledge of the Chinese gold market and the World Gold Council's expertise.

This was complemented by a series of in-depth interviews PMI and the World Gold Council jointly undertook with a number of key gold market participants in Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing. In addition, the report draws upon the extensive consumer research the World Gold Council has undertaken over recent years. This includes:

  • A comprehensive usage and attitudes study of over 10,000 Chinese consumers' relationship with gold jewellery undertaken in 2011 (TNS).
  • A piece of regular research from May 2013 to March 2014 with a series of waves asking Chinese consumers about their outlook for gold prices and intentions to buy gold jewellery over the next 12 months (Kadence).
  • A snapshot of 1,000 Chinese consumers to understand what motivates them to buy gold jewellery and bullion (TNS).

The collective knowledge of PMI and the World Gold Council, combined with extensive consumer research and industry expertise, has resulted in a detailed and insightful piece of analysis.

Key Forecast Assumptions

The forecasts for jewellery consumption and investment demand prepared for this report by PMI are based on several key assumptions:

  • Chinese GDP growth slows to an annual average rate of 6% between 2014-17. As the Chinese economy becomes larger and more mature its natural rate of growth will decline. Since 2009 the most important source of growth has been credit-driven fixed investment. This has become a less efficient means of generating additional gains in GDP. The transition towards an economic model where consumption plays a greater role in GDP is likely to result in lower GDP growth rates.
  • Private consumption is forecast to grow at an average 7.5% per annum over 2014-17. The gradual shift towards a more consumption driven economic model will require the rate of private consumption growth to exceed that for overall GDP. Growth in private consumption will be constrained by an only slow decline in China's exceptionally high household savings rate.
  • The probability of a financial crisis occurring over the medium term is considered high and growing. This risk stems from over-rapid credit growth and significant 'malinvestment'. A financial crisis is forecast to lower both GDP and private consumption growth over the 2014-17 period. (The precise timing and impact in any one year is impossible to forecast and so a loss of 2% of GDP is averaged out over the four years in question.)
  • Inflation is expected to remain under control (below 5%) over the medium term but inflation expectations could well grow because of the massive monetary easing that would almost certainly be undertaken in the wake of a financial crisis occurring in China.
  • No major change to the RMB exchange rate is forecast over the medium term. A modest appreciation is expected in 2014 but in 2015-17 there could be a shift to a moderate depreciation. This can be expected because (initially) there may be a period of general US dollar appreciation. In addition, a financial crisis may impact the renminbi negatively. The authorities could also use currency depreciation as a means of softening the blow from such a crisis, as this would assist the export sector.
  • PMI's gold price assumption for this forecast is that 2014 sees a generally 'weak' trend. However, the expectation is that during the following three years gold prices will tend to recover, reaching an annual average of around US$ 1,500 in 2017.

World Gold Council
The World Gold Council is the market development organisation for the gold industry. Working within the investment, jewellery and technology sectors, as well as engaging in government affairs, our purpose is to provide industry leadership, whilst stimulating and sustaining demand for gold.

We develop gold-backed solutions, services and markets, based on true market insight. As a result, we create structural shifts in demand for gold across key market sectors.

We provide insights into the international gold markets, helping people to better understand the wealth preservation qualities of gold and its role in meeting the social and environmental needs of society.

Based in the UK, with operations in India, the Far East, Europe and the US, the World Gold Council is an association whose members include the world's leading and most forward thinking gold mining companies.

1 Thomson Reuters GFMS. This compares with the China Gold Association's estimate of 1,176.4t.
2 Precious Metals Insights
3 National Bureau of Statistics
4 Precious Metals Insights estimate based upon Thomson Reuters GFMS data

SOURCE World Gold Council

More Stories By PR Newswire

Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Latest Stories
17th Cloud Expo, taking place Nov 3-5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, will feature technical sessions from a rock star conference faculty and the leading industry players in the world. Cloud computing is now being embraced by a majority of enterprises of all sizes. Yesterday's debate about public vs. private has transformed into the reality of hybrid cloud: a recent survey shows that 74% of enterprises have a hybrid cloud strategy. Meanwhile, 94% of enterprises ar...
Overgrown applications have given way to modular applications, driven by the need to break larger problems into smaller problems. Similarly large monolithic development processes have been forced to be broken into smaller agile development cycles. Looking at trends in software development, microservices architectures meet the same demands. Additional benefits of microservices architectures are compartmentalization and a limited impact of service failure versus a complete software malfunction. ...
Discussions about cloud computing are evolving into discussions about enterprise IT in general. As enterprises increasingly migrate toward their own unique clouds, new issues such as the use of containers and microservices emerge to keep things interesting. In this Power Panel at 16th Cloud Expo, moderated by Conference Chair Roger Strukhoff, panelists addressed the state of cloud computing today, and what enterprise IT professionals need to know about how the latest topics and trends affect t...
"We provide a web application framework for building really sophisticated web applications that run on a browser without any installation need so we get used for biotech, defense, and banking applications," noted Charles Kendrick, CTO and Chief Architect at Isomorphic Software, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @DevOpsSummit (http://DevOpsSummit.SYS-CON.com), held June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York
SYS-CON Events announced today that Secure Infrastructure & Services will exhibit at SYS-CON's 17th International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on November 3–5, 2015, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Secure Infrastructure & Services (SIAS) is a managed services provider of cloud computing solutions for the IBM Power Systems market. The company helps mid-market firms built on IBM hardware platforms to deploy new levels of reliable and cost-effective computing and hig...
It is one thing to build single industrial IoT applications, but what will it take to build the Smart Cities and truly society-changing applications of the future? The technology won’t be the problem, it will be the number of parties that need to work together and be aligned in their motivation to succeed. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Jason Mondanaro, Director, Product Management at Metanga, discussed how you can plan to cooperate, partner, and form lasting all-star teams to change the world...
In the midst of the widespread popularity and adoption of cloud computing, it seems like everything is being offered “as a Service” these days: Infrastructure? Check. Platform? You bet. Software? Absolutely. Toaster? It’s only a matter of time. With service providers positioning vastly differing offerings under a generic “cloud” umbrella, it’s all too easy to get confused about what’s actually being offered. In his session at 16th Cloud Expo, Kevin Hazard, Director of Digital Content for SoftL...
"What Dyn is able to do with our Internet performance and our Internet intelligence is give companies visibility into what is actually going on in that cloud," noted Corey Hamilton, Product Marketing Manager at Dyn, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 16th Cloud Expo, held June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City.
Today air travel is a minefield of delays, hassles and customer disappointment. Airlines struggle to revitalize the experience. GE and M2Mi will demonstrate practical examples of how IoT solutions are helping airlines bring back personalization, reduce trip time and improve reliability. In their session at @ThingsExpo, Shyam Varan Nath, Principal Architect with GE, and Dr. Sarah Cooper, M2Mi’s VP Business Development and Engineering, will explore the IoT cloud-based platform technologies drivi...
Containers have changed the mind of IT in DevOps. They enable developers to work with dev, test, stage and production environments identically. Containers provide the right abstraction for microservices and many cloud platforms have integrated them into deployment pipelines. DevOps and Containers together help companies to achieve their business goals faster and more effectively. In his session at DevOps Summit, Ruslan Synytsky, CEO and Co-founder of Jelastic, reviewed the current landscape of...
Explosive growth in connected devices. Enormous amounts of data for collection and analysis. Critical use of data for split-second decision making and actionable information. All three are factors in making the Internet of Things a reality. Yet, any one factor would have an IT organization pondering its infrastructure strategy. How should your organization enhance its IT framework to enable an Internet of Things implementation? In his session at @ThingsExpo, James Kirkland, Red Hat's Chief Arch...
The last decade was about virtual machines, but the next one is about containers. Containers enable a service to run on any host at any time. Traditional tools are starting to show cracks because they were not designed for this level of application portability. Now is the time to look at new ways to deploy and manage applications at scale. In his session at @DevOpsSummit, Brian “Redbeard” Harrington, a principal architect at CoreOS, will examine how CoreOS helps teams run in production. Attende...
Containers are revolutionizing the way we deploy and maintain our infrastructures, but monitoring and troubleshooting in a containerized environment can still be painful and impractical. Understanding even basic resource usage is difficult – let alone tracking network connections or malicious activity. In his session at DevOps Summit, Gianluca Borello, Sr. Software Engineer at Sysdig, will cover the current state of the art for container monitoring and visibility, including pros / cons and liv...
Live Webinar with 451 Research Analyst Peter Christy. Join us on Wednesday July 22, 2015, at 10 am PT / 1 pm ET In a world where users are on the Internet and the applications are in the cloud, how do you maintain your historic SLA with your users? Peter Christy, Research Director, Networks at 451 Research, will discuss this new network paradigm, one in which there is no LAN and no WAN, and discuss what users and network administrators gain and give up when migrating to the agile world of clo...
Agile, which started in the development organization, has gradually expanded into other areas downstream - namely IT and Operations. Teams – then teams of teams – have streamlined processes, improved feedback loops and driven a much faster pace into IT departments which have had profound effects on the entire organization. In his session at DevOps Summit, Anders Wallgren, Chief Technology Officer of Electric Cloud, will discuss how DevOps and Continuous Delivery have emerged to help connect dev...