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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, Together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Increased Slightly in March

RIO DE JANEIRO, April 16, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI), increased 0.1 percent in March. The index now stands at 124.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent decline in both February and January. Three of the eight components contributed positively to the index in March.

"Stock prices and trade drove the Leading Economic Index slightly higher in March, but continued short-term volatility in the index suggests that Brazil's economic growth will, at best, be very modest in the foreseeable future," says Paulo Picchetti, Economist at FGV/IBRE. "Meanwhile, weaknesses in industrial output outweighed the benefits of continued resiliency in the labor market, resulting in a slight decline in the Coincident Economic Index, which measures current conditions in the economy."

Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board, added, "The decline in the six-month average growth rate of the LEI has moderated compared to last year, but is still not back in expansionary territory. The combination of weak global growth and continued tapering of Quantitative Easing in the U.S. provides no hope that the pace of growth can accelerate in the next few months."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil CEI), which measures current economic activity, decreased 0.2 percent in March to 129.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in February and a 0.9 percent increase in January. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in March.

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in Brazil. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundacao Getulio Vargas

TCB/FGV Brazil LEI was launched in July 2013. Plotted back to 1996, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of Brazil. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of TCB/FGV Brazil LEI include:

Swap Rate, 1 year (Source: Central Bank of Brazil)
Stock Price Bovespa Index (Source: BOVESPA - Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo/ Sao Paulo Stock Exchange)
Manufacturing Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Services Sector Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Consumer Expectations Survey: Expectations Index (Source: FGV/IBRE)
Physical Production of Durables Consumer Goods Index (Source: IBGE - Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica/ Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)
Terms of Trade Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comercio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)
Exports Volume Index (Source: FUNCEX - Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comercio Exterior/The Foundation Center for the Study of Foreign Trade)

https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=12

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States of America.

www.conferenceboard.org

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ABOUT FGV/IBRE

The Brazilian Institute of Economics (Instituto Brasileiro de Economia—IBRE) at Fundacao Getulio Vargas (FGV) was founded in 1951 to research, analyse, produce and disseminate macroeconomic statistics and applied studies. Its purpose is to inform and help improve public policies and private activities in the Brazilian economy. IBRE is a leading institute in calculating the Brazilian GDP and producing price indices including the General Price Index (IGP) which served  as Brazil´s official inflation index for many years. In addition to price indices, IBRE prepares trend and business cycle indicators that are widely used by administrators and analysts.

www.fgv.br/ibre

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes




2014


6-month


Jan

Feb

Mar

Sep to Mar






Leading Economic Index

125.5 r

124.8 r

124.9 p


Percent Change

-0.6 r

-0.6 r

0.1 p

-1.0

Diffusion

25.0

25.0

31.3

25.0






Coincident Economic Index

129.2 r

129.3 p

129.1 p


Percent Change

0.9

0.1 p

-0.2 p

0.5

Diffusion

83.3

50.0

66.7

83.3






n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Sources: The Conference Board, FGV/IBRE All Rights Reserved

 

SOURCE The Conference Board

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