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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India Increased in March

MUMBAI, India, April 17, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India increased 0.2 percent in March. The index stands at 177.5 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent decline in February and a 0.9 percent increase in January. Four of the eight components contributed positively to the index in March.

Said Jing Sima, Economist at The Conference Board: "Sharp gains in stock prices and a more competitive exchange rate helped the Leading Economic Index for India increase in March. Meanwhile the Coincident Economic Index, which gauges current economic conditions, showed a strong improvement after a very weak February. Although it is too early to conclude that the current cyclical slowdown has come to an end, the recent acceleration in the LEI growth is signaling a slightly faster pace of economic expansion in the coming months."

Bart van Ark, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, added: "Even though the short-term gain in the Leading Economic Index is still modest, the continued improvement in the 6-month average and the strengthening in current economic conditions suggest a stronger start of the new financial year."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, increased 1.5 percent in March to 201.5 (2004 = 100), following a 1.6 percent decline in February and a 0.3 percent increase in January. Three of the four components contributed positively to the index in March.

The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India 

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India was launched in September 2013. Plotted back to April 1990, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of India. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India include:

Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day Treasury Bill) (RBI)
Stock Prices: SENSEX Average (Bombay Stock Exchange Limited)
Real effective exchange rate index, 36 countries (RBI)
Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (RBI)
Merchandise Exports, f.o.b. (Ministry of Commerce and Industry)
Cargo Handled: Domestic and International (Airport Authority of India)
IP: Capital Goods (Central Statistical Organization)
PMI: Services Business Activity (HSBC/Markit)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=13

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes










2014


6-month


Jan


Feb


Mar


Sep to Mar









Leading Economic Index

177.9

r

177.2

p

177.5

p


     Percent Change

0.9

r

-0.4

p

0.2

p

1.3

     Diffusion

62.5


31.3


50.0


75.0









Coincident Economic Index

201.9

r

198.6

r

201.5

p


     Percent Change

0.3

r

-1.6

r

1.5

p

-0.6

     Diffusion

25.0


50.0


75.0


37.5









n.a. Not available      p Preliminary      r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board           All Rights Reserved

 

SOURCE The Conference Board

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