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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China Increased in March

BEIJING, April 23, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 1.2 percent in March. The index stands at 285.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.9 percent increase in February and a 0.3 percent increase in January. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in March.

"The rise in the Leading Economic Index for China accelerated in March from February," said Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing. "However, its six-month growth rate remains moderate, which suggests that the improvement has not firmed up yet. The environment for real estate investment is dismal and looks set to continue dragging on economic growth in Q2. Thus March's sharp rebound of current economic activity is likely to be temporary."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 1.1 percent in March to 255.6 (2004 = 100), following no change in February and a 1.3 percent decline in January. Four of the five components contributed positively to the index in March.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, the Euro Area, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People's Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People's Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2014

6-month


Jan

Feb

Mar

Sep to Mar









Leading Economic Index (LEI)

279.8

p

282.3

p

285.7

p


   Percent Change

0.3

p

0.9

p

1.2

p

5.0

   Diffusion

58.3


58.3


58.3


66.7









Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

252.8

p

252.7

p

255.6

p


   Percent Change

-1.3

p

0.0

p

1.1

p

2.8

   Diffusion

40.0


60.0


80.0


80.0









n.a. Not available    p Preliminary    r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board      All Rights Reserved

 

SOURCE The Conference Board

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