Welcome!

News Feed Item

Ukraine Conflict and Deteriorating Investment Climate Hit Russia's Economy

In addition to souring relations between Russia, Europe and the United States, further escalation of Russia's engagement in Ukraine could cost Russia more than 3 percent in GDP in real terms or USD115 billion in current dollar terms on average in 2015. The conflict could also exacerbate recessionary pressures, and lead to a reduction in European real GDP of about 0.15 percent overall, according to a scenario developed by economists at IHS Inc., (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of critical information and insight. Details of the scenario will be presented at the IHS Forum in Berlin May 13.

Russia’s economy, already likely in recession, will dampen further in the face of a deteriorating political situation; tougher sanctions; falling investor confidence; and a business climate worsened by fears of retaliation against western companies that produce in or sell to Russia, according to the IHS scenario.

A severe slowdown of Russia’s economy in the second half of 2014 and continuing into 2015 would lead to a reduction in European real GDP growth by about 0.15 percent overall, but with large variations between countries, the IHS study says. Most affected would be traditional machinery and equipment and chemical products’ exporters such as the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany. Also impacted would be Italy and Spain, as would countries highly dependent on Russian imports, such as Finland.

Additionally, non-European economies stand to suffer from the slowdown. Among these are Argentina, Australia and Brazil, who would suffer from lower world demand for their commodity and manufactured exports, triggering spill-over effects on their own trading partners in Asia and Latin America.

IHS economists developed the scenario in response to heightened tensions brought about by Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its ongoing dispute with Ukraine following the ouster of Ukraine’s president and scheduling of new elections in May.

The scenario was developed by a team headed by Elisabeth Waelbroeck-Rocha, IHS Chief International Economist, and IHS Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh using a new, state-of-the-art IHS Global Link Model. The model enables IHS to quantify the impacts of further degradation of the economic situation in Russia on other countries in Europe and globally.

“While Russia could end up paying a very heavy economic price for its annexation of Crimea and its ongoing conflict with Ukraine, the negative impacts on other parts of the world, notably Europe, will also be hard to avoid,” says Behravesh.

The scenario assumes:

    1.   An erosion of business confidence in Russia, leading to the postponement or outright cancellation of investment projects.
2. Increased outflows of capital from Russia, exerting severe downward pressure on the rouble and forcing monetary authorities to raise interest rates to stem the outflows:
--   Russians shift part of their savings abroad, or into foreign-currency denominated accounts;
-- Inbound foreign direct investment into Russia falls by as much as 50 percent in 2014-15;
-- Higher FDI outflows occur, further worsening the capital balance;
-- The balance of portfolio flows also deteriorates: although not much is expected on the inflow side (portfolio investments into Russia being fairly limited in any case), capital outflows increase as residents move out of rouble assets in anticipation of a depreciation of the rouble;
-- Trade credits and bank lending to Russia are also hard hit: this is the lion’s share of foreign investment in Russia at this time, with 84.0 percent of total foreign investment in the non-financial sector in 2013, according to RosStat, at $143 billion;
-- The “Other Liabilities” account also shrinks, leading to a total impact on the capital account of the balance of payment by USD83 billion in 2014 and USD108 billion in 2015.
3. These capital outflows prompt a depreciation of the rouble by up to 15 percent by end-2014, and trigger a 175-basis-points increase in the Russian Central Bank’s key intervention rate to slow the depreciation; in 2015-16, interest rates remain higher than in the baseline scenario, and only come back to the level in the reference scenario by the end of 2016.

As a consequence, credit conditions tighten significantly and credit costs rise. Private and public sector investments are negatively affected – state-owned enterprises suffer cuts in earnings and find it harder to borrow abroad, defense spending slows because of reduced revenues and projects are either slowed or stretched out, and private sector investors cancel or postpone projects because of higher financing costs and tighter credit conditions.

The scenario also foresees a temporary spike in natural gas prices – 20 percent in Europe and 10 percent in Asia – because of the standoff between Russia, Europe and the U.S. The price shock is short-lived, however, because end-users shift to other sources and types of fuel: increased power generation from coal-fired plants, higher gas imports from Algeria, greater share of renewables, and higher energy conservation. In addition, the scenario foresees a limited diversion of some exports of Russian crude and products to Asia.

The impact of Russia’s slowdown of imports from the rest of the world is one of the main spill-over effects on other countries’ growth. Most impacted are Finland and Romania where real GDP growth is cut by 0.2 percent in 2015. Belgium, the Netherlands, Poland and Slovakia also feel a slowdown in GDP growth.

Least affected in the group is Germany. Machinery and equipment accounted for a large portion of the 48.6 percent of Russia’s total imports in 2013, much of it coming from Germany. However, the impact on German GDP, just 0.10 percent in 2015, reflects Russia’s status as a relatively small trading partner for Germany.

China and Korea’s growth is less affected, by only 0.05 percent. In Asia, the negative impact of Russia’s slowdown is attenuated by the relative improvement in energy price trends compared to Europe. Real GDP in India will be reduced by 0.2 percent; Indonesia by 0.6 percent; and Malaysia by 0.6 percent. There is virtually no effect on Japan’s economy.

Asia also benefits from the trade diversion that occurs. The effects of the slowdown on world commodity prices are expected to remain muted. So, while Russia is a major exporter of steel, there are excess production capacities for steel in China, enabling China’s exports to fill the gap in the market.

Complimentary Media Pass – IHS Forum Berlin

Members of the press can register for a complimentary pass to the IHS Forum in Berlin, held at the InterContinental Hotel Berlin, May 12-14. Please send an email with your name, title and outlet details to [email protected].

Further information and delegate registration is available at http://ihsglobalevents.com/forum/berlin2014

About IHS (www.ihs.com)

IHS (NYSE: IHS) is the leading source of information, insight and analytics in critical areas that shape today’s business landscape. Businesses and governments in more than 165 countries around the globe rely on the comprehensive content, expert independent analysis and flexible delivery methods of IHS to make high-impact decisions and develop strategies with speed and confidence. IHS has been in business since 1959 and became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange in 2005. Headquartered in Englewood, Colorado, USA, IHS is committed to sustainable, profitable growth and employs more than 8,000 people in 31 countries around the world.

IHS is a registered trademark of IHS Inc. All other company and product names may be trademarks of their respective owners. © 2014 IHS Inc. All rights reserved.

More Stories By Business Wire

Copyright © 2009 Business Wire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Business Wire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Business Wire. Business Wire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Latest Stories
What happens when the different parts of a vehicle become smarter than the vehicle itself? As we move toward the era of smart everything, hundreds of entities in a vehicle that communicate with each other, the vehicle and external systems create a need for identity orchestration so that all entities work as a conglomerate. Much like an orchestra without a conductor, without the ability to secure, control, and connect the link between a vehicle’s head unit, devices, and systems and to manage the ...
An IoT product’s log files speak volumes about what’s happening with your products in the field, pinpointing current and potential issues, and enabling you to predict failures and save millions of dollars in inventory. But until recently, no one knew how to listen. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Dan Gettens, Chief Research Officer at OnProcess, discussed recent research by Massachusetts Institute of Technology and OnProcess Technology, where MIT created a new, breakthrough analytics model for ...
IoT is rapidly changing the way enterprises are using data to improve business decision-making. In order to derive business value, organizations must unlock insights from the data gathered and then act on these. In their session at @ThingsExpo, Eric Hoffman, Vice President at EastBanc Technologies, and Peter Shashkin, Head of Development Department at EastBanc Technologies, discussed how one organization leveraged IoT, cloud technology and data analysis to improve customer experiences and effici...
Everyone knows that truly innovative companies learn as they go along, pushing boundaries in response to market changes and demands. What's more of a mystery is how to balance innovation on a fresh platform built from scratch with the legacy tech stack, product suite and customers that continue to serve as the business' foundation. In his General Session at 19th Cloud Expo, Michael Chambliss, Head of Engineering at ReadyTalk, discussed why and how ReadyTalk diverted from healthy revenue and mor...
The 20th International Cloud Expo has announced that its Call for Papers is open. Cloud Expo, to be held June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, brings together Cloud Computing, Big Data, Internet of Things, DevOps, Containers, Microservices and WebRTC to one location. With cloud computing driving a higher percentage of enterprise IT budgets every year, it becomes increasingly important to plant your flag in this fast-expanding business opportunity. Submit your speaking proposal ...
In this strange new world where more and more power is drawn from business technology, companies are effectively straddling two paths on the road to innovation and transformation into digital enterprises. The first path is the heritage trail – with “legacy” technology forming the background. Here, extant technologies are transformed by core IT teams to provide more API-driven approaches. Legacy systems can restrict companies that are transitioning into digital enterprises. To truly become a lead...
You have great SaaS business app ideas. You want to turn your idea quickly into a functional and engaging proof of concept. You need to be able to modify it to meet customers' needs, and you need to deliver a complete and secure SaaS application. How could you achieve all the above and yet avoid unforeseen IT requirements that add unnecessary cost and complexity? You also want your app to be responsive in any device at any time. In his session at 19th Cloud Expo, Mark Allen, General Manager of...
The Internet of Things (IoT) promises to simplify and streamline our lives by automating routine tasks that distract us from our goals. This promise is based on the ubiquitous deployment of smart, connected devices that link everything from industrial control systems to automobiles to refrigerators. Unfortunately, comparatively few of the devices currently deployed have been developed with an eye toward security, and as the DDoS attacks of late October 2016 have demonstrated, this oversight can ...
"MathFreeOn.com is a line coding platform for engineers and scientists. When they want to solve an engineering problem and they have to use software - they have to pay a lot of money for licenses - but with MathFreeOn you don't have to pay a lot of money. Just go to our site and write the code and you can check the result right away," explained Simon Lee, CMO of MathFreeOn, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 19th Cloud Expo, held November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Cla...
In his session at 19th Cloud Expo, Claude Remillard, Principal Program Manager in Developer Division at Microsoft, contrasted how his team used config as code and immutable patterns for continuous delivery of microservices and apps to the cloud. He showed how the immutable patterns helps developers do away with most of the complexity of config as code-enabling scenarios such as rollback, zero downtime upgrades with far greater simplicity. He also demoed building immutable pipelines in the cloud ...
As data explodes in quantity, importance and from new sources, the need for managing and protecting data residing across physical, virtual, and cloud environments grow with it. Managing data includes protecting it, indexing and classifying it for true, long-term management, compliance and E-Discovery. Commvault can ensure this with a single pane of glass solution – whether in a private cloud, a Service Provider delivered public cloud or a hybrid cloud environment – across the heterogeneous enter...
Bert Loomis was a visionary. This general session will highlight how Bert Loomis and people like him inspire us to build great things with small inventions. In their general session at 19th Cloud Expo, Harold Hannon, Architect at IBM Bluemix, and Michael O'Neill, Strategic Business Development at Nvidia, discussed the accelerating pace of AI development and how IBM Cloud and NVIDIA are partnering to bring AI capabilities to "every day," on-demand. They also reviewed two "free infrastructure" pr...
In his session at Cloud Expo, Robert Cohen, an economist and senior fellow at the Economic Strategy Institute, provideed economic scenarios that describe how the rapid adoption of software-defined everything including cloud services, SDDC and open networking will change GDP, industry growth, productivity and jobs. This session also included a drill down for several industries such as finance, social media, cloud service providers and pharmaceuticals.
"Dice has been around for the last 20 years. We have been helping tech professionals find new jobs and career opportunities," explained Manish Dixit, VP of Product and Engineering at Dice, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 19th Cloud Expo, held November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Extracting business value from Internet of Things (IoT) data doesn’t happen overnight. There are several requirements that must be satisfied, including IoT device enablement, data analysis, real-time detection of complex events and automated orchestration of actions. Unfortunately, too many companies fall short in achieving their business goals by implementing incomplete solutions or not focusing on tangible use cases. In his general session at @ThingsExpo, Dave McCarthy, Director of Products...