News Feed Item

Ukraine Conflict and Deteriorating Investment Climate Hit Russia's Economy

In addition to souring relations between Russia, Europe and the United States, further escalation of Russia's engagement in Ukraine could cost Russia more than 3 percent in GDP in real terms or USD115 billion in current dollar terms on average in 2015. The conflict could also exacerbate recessionary pressures, and lead to a reduction in European real GDP of about 0.15 percent overall, according to a scenario developed by economists at IHS Inc., (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of critical information and insight. Details of the scenario will be presented at the IHS Forum in Berlin May 13.

Russia’s economy, already likely in recession, will dampen further in the face of a deteriorating political situation; tougher sanctions; falling investor confidence; and a business climate worsened by fears of retaliation against western companies that produce in or sell to Russia, according to the IHS scenario.

A severe slowdown of Russia’s economy in the second half of 2014 and continuing into 2015 would lead to a reduction in European real GDP growth by about 0.15 percent overall, but with large variations between countries, the IHS study says. Most affected would be traditional machinery and equipment and chemical products’ exporters such as the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany. Also impacted would be Italy and Spain, as would countries highly dependent on Russian imports, such as Finland.

Additionally, non-European economies stand to suffer from the slowdown. Among these are Argentina, Australia and Brazil, who would suffer from lower world demand for their commodity and manufactured exports, triggering spill-over effects on their own trading partners in Asia and Latin America.

IHS economists developed the scenario in response to heightened tensions brought about by Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its ongoing dispute with Ukraine following the ouster of Ukraine’s president and scheduling of new elections in May.

The scenario was developed by a team headed by Elisabeth Waelbroeck-Rocha, IHS Chief International Economist, and IHS Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh using a new, state-of-the-art IHS Global Link Model. The model enables IHS to quantify the impacts of further degradation of the economic situation in Russia on other countries in Europe and globally.

“While Russia could end up paying a very heavy economic price for its annexation of Crimea and its ongoing conflict with Ukraine, the negative impacts on other parts of the world, notably Europe, will also be hard to avoid,” says Behravesh.

The scenario assumes:

    1.   An erosion of business confidence in Russia, leading to the postponement or outright cancellation of investment projects.
2. Increased outflows of capital from Russia, exerting severe downward pressure on the rouble and forcing monetary authorities to raise interest rates to stem the outflows:
--   Russians shift part of their savings abroad, or into foreign-currency denominated accounts;
-- Inbound foreign direct investment into Russia falls by as much as 50 percent in 2014-15;
-- Higher FDI outflows occur, further worsening the capital balance;
-- The balance of portfolio flows also deteriorates: although not much is expected on the inflow side (portfolio investments into Russia being fairly limited in any case), capital outflows increase as residents move out of rouble assets in anticipation of a depreciation of the rouble;
-- Trade credits and bank lending to Russia are also hard hit: this is the lion’s share of foreign investment in Russia at this time, with 84.0 percent of total foreign investment in the non-financial sector in 2013, according to RosStat, at $143 billion;
-- The “Other Liabilities” account also shrinks, leading to a total impact on the capital account of the balance of payment by USD83 billion in 2014 and USD108 billion in 2015.
3. These capital outflows prompt a depreciation of the rouble by up to 15 percent by end-2014, and trigger a 175-basis-points increase in the Russian Central Bank’s key intervention rate to slow the depreciation; in 2015-16, interest rates remain higher than in the baseline scenario, and only come back to the level in the reference scenario by the end of 2016.

As a consequence, credit conditions tighten significantly and credit costs rise. Private and public sector investments are negatively affected – state-owned enterprises suffer cuts in earnings and find it harder to borrow abroad, defense spending slows because of reduced revenues and projects are either slowed or stretched out, and private sector investors cancel or postpone projects because of higher financing costs and tighter credit conditions.

The scenario also foresees a temporary spike in natural gas prices – 20 percent in Europe and 10 percent in Asia – because of the standoff between Russia, Europe and the U.S. The price shock is short-lived, however, because end-users shift to other sources and types of fuel: increased power generation from coal-fired plants, higher gas imports from Algeria, greater share of renewables, and higher energy conservation. In addition, the scenario foresees a limited diversion of some exports of Russian crude and products to Asia.

The impact of Russia’s slowdown of imports from the rest of the world is one of the main spill-over effects on other countries’ growth. Most impacted are Finland and Romania where real GDP growth is cut by 0.2 percent in 2015. Belgium, the Netherlands, Poland and Slovakia also feel a slowdown in GDP growth.

Least affected in the group is Germany. Machinery and equipment accounted for a large portion of the 48.6 percent of Russia’s total imports in 2013, much of it coming from Germany. However, the impact on German GDP, just 0.10 percent in 2015, reflects Russia’s status as a relatively small trading partner for Germany.

China and Korea’s growth is less affected, by only 0.05 percent. In Asia, the negative impact of Russia’s slowdown is attenuated by the relative improvement in energy price trends compared to Europe. Real GDP in India will be reduced by 0.2 percent; Indonesia by 0.6 percent; and Malaysia by 0.6 percent. There is virtually no effect on Japan’s economy.

Asia also benefits from the trade diversion that occurs. The effects of the slowdown on world commodity prices are expected to remain muted. So, while Russia is a major exporter of steel, there are excess production capacities for steel in China, enabling China’s exports to fill the gap in the market.

Complimentary Media Pass – IHS Forum Berlin

Members of the press can register for a complimentary pass to the IHS Forum in Berlin, held at the InterContinental Hotel Berlin, May 12-14. Please send an email with your name, title and outlet details to [email protected].

Further information and delegate registration is available at http://ihsglobalevents.com/forum/berlin2014

About IHS (www.ihs.com)

IHS (NYSE: IHS) is the leading source of information, insight and analytics in critical areas that shape today’s business landscape. Businesses and governments in more than 165 countries around the globe rely on the comprehensive content, expert independent analysis and flexible delivery methods of IHS to make high-impact decisions and develop strategies with speed and confidence. IHS has been in business since 1959 and became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange in 2005. Headquartered in Englewood, Colorado, USA, IHS is committed to sustainable, profitable growth and employs more than 8,000 people in 31 countries around the world.

IHS is a registered trademark of IHS Inc. All other company and product names may be trademarks of their respective owners. © 2014 IHS Inc. All rights reserved.

More Stories By Business Wire

Copyright © 2009 Business Wire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Business Wire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Business Wire. Business Wire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Latest Stories
@ThingsExpo has been named the Top 5 Most Influential Internet of Things Brand by Onalytica in the ‘The Internet of Things Landscape 2015: Top 100 Individuals and Brands.' Onalytica analyzed Twitter conversations around the #IoT debate to uncover the most influential brands and individuals driving the conversation. Onalytica captured data from 56,224 users. The PageRank based methodology they use to extract influencers on a particular topic (tweets mentioning #InternetofThings or #IoT in this ...
@ThingsExpo has been named the Top 5 Most Influential M2M Brand by Onalytica in the ‘Machine to Machine: Top 100 Influencers and Brands.' Onalytica analyzed the online debate on M2M by looking at over 85,000 tweets to provide the most influential individuals and brands that drive the discussion. According to Onalytica the "analysis showed a very engaged community with a lot of interactive tweets. The M2M discussion seems to be more fragmented and driven by some of the major brands present in the...
Successful transition from traditional IT to cloud computing requires three key ingredients: an IT architecture that allows companies to extend their internal best practices to the cloud, a cost point that allows economies of scale, and automated processes that manage risk exposure and maintain regulatory compliance with industry regulations (FFIEC, PCI-DSS, HIPAA, FISMA). The unique combination of VMware, the IBM Cloud, and Cloud Raxak, a 2016 Gartner Cool Vendor in IT Automation, provides a co...
In the next forty months – just over three years – businesses will undergo extraordinary changes. The exponential growth of digitization and machine learning will see a step function change in how businesses create value, satisfy customers, and outperform their competition. In the next forty months companies will take the actions that will see them get to the next level of the game called Capitalism. Or they won’t – game over. The winners of today and tomorrow think differently, follow different...
In an era of historic innovation fueled by unprecedented access to data and technology, the low cost and risk of entering new markets has leveled the playing field for business. Today, any ambitious innovator can easily introduce a new application or product that can reinvent business models and transform the client experience. In their Day 2 Keynote at 19th Cloud Expo, Mercer Rowe, IBM Vice President of Strategic Alliances, and Raejeanne Skillern, Intel Vice President of Data Center Group and ...
"Avere Systems is a hybrid cloud solution provider. We have customers that want to use cloud storage and we have customers that want to take advantage of cloud compute," explained Rebecca Thompson, VP of Marketing at Avere Systems, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 18th Cloud Expo, held June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY.
More and more brands have jumped on the IoT bandwagon. We have an excess of wearables – activity trackers, smartwatches, smart glasses and sneakers, and more that track seemingly endless datapoints. However, most consumers have no idea what “IoT” means. Creating more wearables that track data shouldn't be the aim of brands; delivering meaningful, tangible relevance to their users should be. We're in a period in which the IoT pendulum is still swinging. Initially, it swung toward "smart for smar...
The Internet of Things (IoT), in all its myriad manifestations, has great potential. Much of that potential comes from the evolving data management and analytic (DMA) technologies and processes that allow us to gain insight from all of the IoT data that can be generated and gathered. This potential may never be met as those data sets are tied to specific industry verticals and single markets, with no clear way to use IoT data and sensor analytics to fulfill the hype being given the IoT today.
Virgil consists of an open-source encryption library, which implements Cryptographic Message Syntax (CMS) and Elliptic Curve Integrated Encryption Scheme (ECIES) (including RSA schema), a Key Management API, and a cloud-based Key Management Service (Virgil Keys). The Virgil Keys Service consists of a public key service and a private key escrow service. 

Apache Hadoop is a key technology for gaining business insights from your Big Data, but the penetration into enterprises is shockingly low. In fact, Apache Hadoop and Big Data proponents recognize that this technology has not yet achieved its game-changing business potential. In his session at 19th Cloud Expo, John Mertic, director of program management for ODPi at The Linux Foundation, will explain why this is, how we can work together as an open data community to increase adoption, and the i...
Data is the fuel that drives the machine learning algorithmic engines and ultimately provides the business value. In his session at Cloud Expo, Ed Featherston, a director and senior enterprise architect at Collaborative Consulting, will discuss the key considerations around quality, volume, timeliness, and pedigree that must be dealt with in order to properly fuel that engine.
All clouds are not equal. To succeed in a DevOps context, organizations should plan to develop/deploy apps across a choice of on-premise and public clouds simultaneously depending on the business needs. This is where the concept of the Lean Cloud comes in - resting on the idea that you often need to relocate your app modules over their life cycles for both innovation and operational efficiency in the cloud. In his session at @DevOpsSummit at19th Cloud Expo, Valentin (Val) Bercovici, CTO of So...
SYS-CON Events announced today that StarNet Communications will exhibit at the 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. StarNet Communications’ FastX is the industry first cloud-based remote X Windows emulator. Using standard Web browsers (FireFox, Chrome, Safari, etc.) users from around the world gain highly secure access to applications and data hosted on Linux-based servers in a central data center. ...
SYS-CON Events announced today that eCube Systems, the leading provider of modern development tools and best practices for Continuous Integration on OpenVMS, will exhibit at SYS-CON's @DevOpsSummit at Cloud Expo New York, which will take place on June 7-9, 2016, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. eCube Systems offers a family of middleware products and development tools that maximize return on technology investment by leveraging existing technical equity to meet evolving business needs. ...
What happens when the different parts of a vehicle become smarter than the vehicle itself? As we move toward the era of smart everything, hundreds of entities in a vehicle that communicate with each other, the vehicle and external systems create a need for identity orchestration so that all entities work as a conglomerate. Much like an orchestra without a conductor, without the ability to secure, control, and connect the link between a vehicle’s head unit, devices, and systems and to manage the ...