Welcome!

News Feed Item

WSI: Above-Normal Summer Temperatures Likely Confined to Western and South-Central US

Still Expecting the Weakest Cooling Demand Since 2009

ANDOVER, MA--(Marketwired - May 16, 2014) - WSI (Weather Services International) has issued their updated summer forecast for the June-August period. The summer forecast indicates below-normal temperatures from the southern Rockies northward to the northern Rockies and Plains and then eastward and southward to the mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Warmer-than-normal temperatures will be confined to the western US, southern Plains, and northern New England. The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year normal (1981-2010). 

According to WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: "There is little change to our updated summer outlook, as the various statistical/dynamical models we use are in unusually good agreement. It is now clear that an El Nino event is emerging, although the chances of a very strong event (e.g., 1997) now appear relatively small. The forcing from the developing El Nino should result in a higher-than-normal frequency of cool Canadian air masses this summer across much of the northern and eastern US, confining the big heat to the western US and potentially parts of the southern Plains. While we are expecting above-normal temperatures across Texas this summer, the magnitude of the heat will likely be modulated by the amount of rainfall that occurs during the next few weeks. More frequent late spring rains will likely increase the odds of only slightly above-normal aggregate summer temperatures there, while a return to a drier pattern during the next few weeks will increase the odds of more notable heat."

In June, WSI sees the monthly breakdown as:
Northeast* - Warmer than normal New England, cooler than normal mid-Atlantic
Southeast* - Cooler than normal
North Central* - Cooler than normal
South Central* - Warmer than normal
Northwest* - Warmer than normal
Southwest* - Warmer than normal

According to Chris Kostas, Senior Power & Gas Analyst at ESAI Power LLC: "With slightly cooler-than-normal June temperatures expected in the East and North Central regions, energy prices in PJM should be moderated by below-normal cooling demand. Above-normal temperatures are forecast for the West, increasing the chances for early-summer heat events and higher energy prices in California. With below-normal cooling demand expected in the Consuming East, PJM natural gas prices should run at a significant discount to Henry Hub (particularly on the cooler days). Offsetting some of this price weakness, however, should be increased natural gas injection demand; which ESAI expects will run about 4 Bcf/day above last year."

In July, WSI forecasts:
Northeast - Cooler than normal
Southeast - Cooler than normal
North Central - Cooler than normal
South Central - Warmer than normal
Northwest - Warmer than normal
Southwest - Cooler than normal

Kostas added: "Cooler-than-normal temperatures are expected to prevail over much of the country in July. Aggregate North American cooling demand is expected to run below normal, resulting in soft energy prices, particularly in the Northeast markets. Large price discounts to Henry Hub can be expected in PJM and New York this summer, particularly on cooler days. Robust natural gas injections should help to offset some of this price weakness and allow storage levels to improve relative to last year, however. In Texas and California, above-normal temperatures should help to support power prices. Increased energy demand in Texas could also help to support Henry Hub prices relative to the shale production region of Pennsylvania."

In August, WSI forecasts:
Northeast - Cooler than normal, except northern New England
Southeast - Warmer than normal
North Central - Cooler than normal
South Central - Warmer than normal
Northwest - Warmer than normal
Southwest - Cooler than normal

Kostas noted: "In PJM and northern MISO cooler-than-normal August temperatures should help to moderate power prices and implied market heat-rates to finish the summer. Natural gas prices in the Mid-Atlantic region should be soft relative to Henry Hub due to lower electrical loads. Reduced aggregate cooling demand and lower electrical loads should also allow natural gas inventories to reduce the deficit to last year's level. In Texas warmer-than-normal August temperatures should help to firm ERCOT power prices and implied market heat-rates."

WSI provides customized weather information to global commodity traders via its industry-leading WSI Trader Web site. WSI will issue its next seasonal outlook on June 20. 

*To view the map defining WSI's US regions, click here.

About WSI Corporation
WSI (Weather Services International) and Weather Central are the world's leading providers of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, aviation, insurance and media markets, as well as multiple federal and state government agencies. Together they comprise the professional division of The Weather Company and are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms, The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital.

About ESAI
Since its inception in 1984, Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) has been dedicated to monitoring, analyzing and synthesizing information about world-wide energy markets. Tapping the talents of its senior-level staff, ESAI provides clients with unparalleled insight into where the markets have been and where they are headed. ESAI provides ongoing systematic analysis of energy prices in the oil, natural gas and energy markets. For more information on ESAI services, see www.esai.com.

Image Available: http://www.marketwire.com/library/MwGo/2014/5/16/11G015842/Images/TRADER_T2M_DFN30_WSI_DAY3090_CONUS400_(4)-843338533272.jpg

More Stories By Marketwired .

Copyright © 2009 Marketwired. All rights reserved. All the news releases provided by Marketwired are copyrighted. Any forms of copying other than an individual user's personal reference without express written permission is prohibited. Further distribution of these materials is strictly forbidden, including but not limited to, posting, emailing, faxing, archiving in a public database, redistributing via a computer network or in a printed form.

Latest Stories
"At the keynote this morning we spoke about the value proposition of Nutanix, of having a DevOps culture and a mindset, and the business outcomes of achieving agility and scale, which everybody here is trying to accomplish," noted Mark Lavi, DevOps Solution Architect at Nutanix, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @DevOpsSummit at 20th Cloud Expo, held June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY.
"We're here to tell the world about our cloud-scale infrastructure that we have at Juniper combined with the world-class security that we put into the cloud," explained Lisa Guess, VP of Systems Engineering at Juniper Networks, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 20th Cloud Expo, held June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY.
Enterprise architects are increasingly adopting multi-cloud strategies as they seek to utilize existing data center assets, leverage the advantages of cloud computing and avoid cloud vendor lock-in. This requires a globally aware traffic management strategy that can monitor infrastructure health across data centers and end-user experience globally, while responding to control changes and system specification at the speed of today’s DevOps teams. In his session at 20th Cloud Expo, Josh Gray, Chie...
"We're a cybersecurity firm that specializes in engineering security solutions both at the software and hardware level. Security cannot be an after-the-fact afterthought, which is what it's become," stated Richard Blech, Chief Executive Officer at Secure Channels, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @ThingsExpo, held November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
In his session at 20th Cloud Expo, Mike Johnston, an infrastructure engineer at Supergiant.io, discussed how to use Kubernetes to set up a SaaS infrastructure for your business. Mike Johnston is an infrastructure engineer at Supergiant.io with over 12 years of experience designing, deploying, and maintaining server and workstation infrastructure at all scales. He has experience with brick and mortar data centers as well as cloud providers like Digital Ocean, Amazon Web Services, and Rackspace. H...
Consumers increasingly expect their electronic "things" to be connected to smart phones, tablets and the Internet. When that thing happens to be a medical device, the risks and benefits of connectivity must be carefully weighed. Once the decision is made that connecting the device is beneficial, medical device manufacturers must design their products to maintain patient safety and prevent compromised personal health information in the face of cybersecurity threats. In his session at @ThingsExpo...
All organizations that did not originate this moment have a pre-existing culture as well as legacy technology and processes that can be more or less amenable to DevOps implementation. That organizational culture is influenced by the personalities and management styles of Executive Management, the wider culture in which the organization is situated, and the personalities of key team members at all levels of the organization. This culture and entrenched interests usually throw a wrench in the work...
Detecting internal user threats in the Big Data eco-system is challenging and cumbersome. Many organizations monitor internal usage of the Big Data eco-system using a set of alerts. This is not a scalable process given the increase in the number of alerts with the accelerating growth in data volume and user base. Organizations are increasingly leveraging machine learning to monitor only those data elements that are sensitive and critical, autonomously establish monitoring policies, and to detect...
SYS-CON Events announced today that Grape Up will exhibit at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct. 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Grape Up is a software company specializing in cloud native application development and professional services related to Cloud Foundry PaaS. With five expert teams that operate in various sectors of the market across the U.S. and Europe, Grape Up works with a variety of customers from emergi...
You know you need the cloud, but you’re hesitant to simply dump everything at Amazon since you know that not all workloads are suitable for cloud. You know that you want the kind of ease of use and scalability that you get with public cloud, but your applications are architected in a way that makes the public cloud a non-starter. You’re looking at private cloud solutions based on hyperconverged infrastructure, but you’re concerned with the limits inherent in those technologies.
SYS-CON Events announced today that Massive Networks will exhibit at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Massive Networks mission is simple. To help your business operate seamlessly with fast, reliable, and secure internet and network solutions. Improve your customer's experience with outstanding connections to your cloud.
DevOps is under attack because developers don’t want to mess with infrastructure. They will happily own their code into production, but want to use platforms instead of raw automation. That’s changing the landscape that we understand as DevOps with both architecture concepts (CloudNative) and process redefinition (SRE). Rob Hirschfeld’s recent work in Kubernetes operations has led to the conclusion that containers and related platforms have changed the way we should be thinking about DevOps and...
Everything run by electricity will eventually be connected to the Internet. Get ahead of the Internet of Things revolution and join Akvelon expert and IoT industry leader, Sergey Grebnov, in his session at @ThingsExpo, for an educational dive into the world of managing your home, workplace and all the devices they contain with the power of machine-based AI and intelligent Bot services for a completely streamlined experience.
Because IoT devices are deployed in mission-critical environments more than ever before, it’s increasingly imperative they be truly smart. IoT sensors simply stockpiling data isn’t useful. IoT must be artificially and naturally intelligent in order to provide more value In his session at @ThingsExpo, John Crupi, Vice President and Engineering System Architect at Greenwave Systems, will discuss how IoT artificial intelligence (AI) can be carried out via edge analytics and machine learning techn...
FinTechs use the cloud to operate at the speed and scale of digital financial activity, but are often hindered by the complexity of managing security and compliance in the cloud. In his session at 20th Cloud Expo, Sesh Murthy, co-founder and CTO of Cloud Raxak, showed how proactive and automated cloud security enables FinTechs to leverage the cloud to achieve their business goals. Through business-driven cloud security, FinTechs can speed time-to-market, diminish risk and costs, maintain continu...