Welcome!

News Feed Item

CAPP Crude Oil Forecast: Oil Sands Development Drives Steady Canadian Oil Production Growth to 2030

CALGARY, ALBERTA -- (Marketwired) -- 06/09/14 -- Canadian oil production is projected to grow steadily by an annual average of four per cent or 175,000 barrels per day over the period to 2030 as companies continue to develop the oil sands in response to strong demand indications from North American and global energy markets.

According to CAPP's 2014 Crude Oil Forecast, Markets and Transportation, total Canadian crude oil production will increase to 6.4 million barrels per day by 2030 from 3.5 million barrels per day in 2013.

"Global demand for oil continues to increase and Canada's large reserves make it an attractive supply source for markets in the United States and beyond," said CAPP vice-president Greg Stringham. "Connecting Canadian supplies to these markets, safely and competitively, remains a key priority for our industry."

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 Canadian Crude Oil Production (million b/d)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        2013    2015    2020    2025    2030
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Western Canada                           3.2     3.7     4.6     5.6     6.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Conventional                           1.3     1.4     1.5     1.5     1.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Oil Sands                              1.9     2.3     3.2     4.1     4.8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Eastern Canada                           0.2     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total (i)                                3.5     3.9     4.9     5.7     6.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
(i)Totals may not add due to rounding
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

As oil production increases, more transportation capacity is required to transport products to new and existing markets. Several projects are at various stages in the regulatory process and others are being considered. They include pipelines to the east and west in Canada and south to the United States. The projected growth in production is dependent on expansion of transportation capacity to a portfolio of market opportunities.

While pipelines remain the primary transportation mode for large crude oil volumes over long periods of time, delay in the regulatory process for Keystone XL has provided the impetus for additional capacity from railways, barges, and tankers in the transportation mix. With the construction of new loading and unloading facilities, existing rail lines provide flexibility to deliver to multiple destinations.

Over the full forecast period to 2030, oil sands remain the primary growth driver with production growth to 4.8 million barrels per day. Conventional oil production in Western Canada, including condensates, remains stable at 1.5 million barrels per day and Eastern Canadian offshore production declines to about 90,000 barrels per day.

Conventional oil production continues to reverse its previous long decline because of the continuing use of horizontal and multi-fracturing drilling techniques. Increased drilling in liquids-rich areas has also reversed a declining production trend for condensates, a light oil often used as diluent in the oil sands. In Eastern Canada, three recent discoveries in the Flemish Pass Basin may lead to increased projections for the region in future CAPP forecasts.

For comparison, CAPP's 2013 forecast estimated total production in 2030 at 6.7 million barrels per day, oil sands production at 5.2 million barrels per day, and conventional production at 1.4 million barrels per day. During the early part of the forecast period the two forecasts are very similar, with production from current projects and projects under construction being relatively firm. However, the latter part of the forecast is more dependent on new growth projects. While the overall trends in the two forecasts are consistent , the difference between the two forecasts later in the period primarily reflects increasing uncertainty regarding project timing related to cost competitiveness and capital availability. These impacts are more evident in proposed oil sands projects near the end of the forecast period.

CAPP's annual forecast is developed from oil producer survey data and CAPP analysis of historical trends, expected drilling activity, recent announcements and ongoing discussions with industry stakeholders and government agencies. CAPP does not forecast oil prices. The full report is available at www.capp.ca/forecast.

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) represents companies, large and small, that explore for, develop and produce natural gas and crude oil throughout Canada. CAPP's member companies produce about 90 per cent of Canada's natural gas and crude oil. CAPP's associate members provide a wide range of services that support the upstream crude oil and natural gas industry. Together CAPP's members and associate members are an important part of a national industry with revenues of about $110 billion a year. CAPP's vision is to enhance Canada's prosperity by enabling responsible growth of Canada's upstream oil and gas industry.

Contacts:
Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
Geraldine Anderson
403-267-1151
[email protected]
www.capp.ca

More Stories By Marketwired .

Copyright © 2009 Marketwired. All rights reserved. All the news releases provided by Marketwired are copyrighted. Any forms of copying other than an individual user's personal reference without express written permission is prohibited. Further distribution of these materials is strictly forbidden, including but not limited to, posting, emailing, faxing, archiving in a public database, redistributing via a computer network or in a printed form.

Latest Stories
In his session at 21st Cloud Expo, Raju Shreewastava, founder of Big Data Trunk, provided a fun and simple way to introduce Machine Leaning to anyone and everyone. He solved a machine learning problem and demonstrated an easy way to be able to do machine learning without even coding. Raju Shreewastava is the founder of Big Data Trunk (www.BigDataTrunk.com), a Big Data Training and consulting firm with offices in the United States. He previously led the data warehouse/business intelligence and B...
No hype cycles or predictions of a gazillion things here. IoT is here. You get it. You know your business and have great ideas for a business transformation strategy. What comes next? Time to make it happen. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Jay Mason, an Associate Partner of Analytics, IoT & Cybersecurity at M&S Consulting, presented a step-by-step plan to develop your technology implementation strategy. He also discussed the evaluation of communication standards and IoT messaging protocols, data...
In his keynote at 18th Cloud Expo, Andrew Keys, Co-Founder of ConsenSys Enterprise, provided an overview of the evolution of the Internet and the Database and the future of their combination – the Blockchain. Andrew Keys is Co-Founder of ConsenSys Enterprise. He comes to ConsenSys Enterprise with capital markets, technology and entrepreneurial experience. Previously, he worked for UBS investment bank in equities analysis. Later, he was responsible for the creation and distribution of life settle...
Smart cities have the potential to change our lives at so many levels for citizens: less pollution, reduced parking obstacles, better health, education and more energy savings. Real-time data streaming and the Internet of Things (IoT) possess the power to turn this vision into a reality. However, most organizations today are building their data infrastructure to focus solely on addressing immediate business needs vs. a platform capable of quickly adapting emerging technologies to address future ...
In his general session at 21st Cloud Expo, Greg Dumas, Calligo’s Vice President and G.M. of US operations, discussed the new Global Data Protection Regulation and how Calligo can help business stay compliant in digitally globalized world. Greg Dumas is Calligo's Vice President and G.M. of US operations. Calligo is an established service provider that provides an innovative platform for trusted cloud solutions. Calligo’s customers are typically most concerned about GDPR compliance, application p...
You know you need the cloud, but you’re hesitant to simply dump everything at Amazon since you know that not all workloads are suitable for cloud. You know that you want the kind of ease of use and scalability that you get with public cloud, but your applications are architected in a way that makes the public cloud a non-starter. You’re looking at private cloud solutions based on hyperconverged infrastructure, but you’re concerned with the limits inherent in those technologies.
Is advanced scheduling in Kubernetes achievable?Yes, however, how do you properly accommodate every real-life scenario that a Kubernetes user might encounter? How do you leverage advanced scheduling techniques to shape and describe each scenario in easy-to-use rules and configurations? In his session at @DevOpsSummit at 21st Cloud Expo, Oleg Chunikhin, CTO at Kublr, answered these questions and demonstrated techniques for implementing advanced scheduling. For example, using spot instances and co...
Blockchain. A day doesn’t seem to go by without seeing articles and discussions about the technology. According to PwC executive Seamus Cushley, approximately $1.4B has been invested in blockchain just last year. In Gartner’s recent hype cycle for emerging technologies, blockchain is approaching the peak. It is considered by Gartner as one of the ‘Key platform-enabling technologies to track.’ While there is a lot of ‘hype vs reality’ discussions going on, there is no arguing that blockchain is b...
DevOps is under attack because developers don’t want to mess with infrastructure. They will happily own their code into production, but want to use platforms instead of raw automation. That’s changing the landscape that we understand as DevOps with both architecture concepts (CloudNative) and process redefinition (SRE). Rob Hirschfeld’s recent work in Kubernetes operations has led to the conclusion that containers and related platforms have changed the way we should be thinking about DevOps and...
The need for greater agility and scalability necessitated the digital transformation in the form of following equation: monolithic to microservices to serverless architecture (FaaS). To keep up with the cut-throat competition, the organisations need to update their technology stack to make software development their differentiating factor. Thus microservices architecture emerged as a potential method to provide development teams with greater flexibility and other advantages, such as the abili...
Product connectivity goes hand and hand these days with increased use of personal data. New IoT devices are becoming more personalized than ever before. In his session at 22nd Cloud Expo | DXWorld Expo, Nicolas Fierro, CEO of MIMIR Blockchain Solutions, will discuss how in order to protect your data and privacy, IoT applications need to embrace Blockchain technology for a new level of product security never before seen - or needed.
Leading companies, from the Global Fortune 500 to the smallest companies, are adopting hybrid cloud as the path to business advantage. Hybrid cloud depends on cloud services and on-premises infrastructure working in unison. Successful implementations require new levels of data mobility, enabled by an automated and seamless flow across on-premises and cloud resources. In his general session at 21st Cloud Expo, Greg Tevis, an IBM Storage Software Technical Strategist and Customer Solution Architec...
Coca-Cola’s Google powered digital signage system lays the groundwork for a more valuable connection between Coke and its customers. Digital signs pair software with high-resolution displays so that a message can be changed instantly based on what the operator wants to communicate or sell. In their Day 3 Keynote at 21st Cloud Expo, Greg Chambers, Global Group Director, Digital Innovation, Coca-Cola, and Vidya Nagarajan, a Senior Product Manager at Google, discussed how from store operations and ...
"As we've gone out into the public cloud we've seen that over time we may have lost a few things - we've lost control, we've given up cost to a certain extent, and then security, flexibility," explained Steve Conner, VP of Sales at Cloudistics,in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 20th Cloud Expo, held June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY.
Blockchain is a shared, secure record of exchange that establishes trust, accountability and transparency across business networks. Supported by the Linux Foundation's open source, open-standards based Hyperledger Project, Blockchain has the potential to improve regulatory compliance, reduce cost as well as advance trade. Are you curious about how Blockchain is built for business? In her session at 21st Cloud Expo, René Bostic, Technical VP of the IBM Cloud Unit in North America, discussed the b...