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WellDoc Improves Hypoglycemia Prediction Model for Patients with Type 2 Diabetes
|By Business Wire
|June 16, 2014 01:32 PM EDT
Researchers at WellDoc®
today presented updated results of its hypoglycemia prediction
technology at this week’s 2014 American Diabetes Association 74th
Scientific Sessions. In previous work, using just one week of blood
glucose data, WellDoc’s models were shown to predict correctly 90
percent of the time that hypoglycemia would occur the following day.
Today, WellDoc announced an enhanced model that incorporates both
glucose and medication data has demonstrated the ability to predict
hypoglycemia within a specific hour.
“The challenge in predicting hypoglycemia is that most patients with
type 2 diabetes measure their blood glucose once or twice per day. This
so-called ‘sparse data’ makes mathematical forecasting difficult,”
states WellDoc Chief Data Science Officer, Anand Iyer, Ph.D. “We used
machine learning algorithms which allow the computer to detect patterns
and make predictions after being trained on thousands of data points.”
In the current study, the medication model improves upon the specificity
of the prediction by 32 percent (from 69.5 percent to 92.1 percent).
Further, the time window of prediction was narrowed from any time within
24 hours to a specific hour. These improvements were seen after the
WellDoc team trained the model with both medication information as well
as blood glucose patterns. “High specificity means that the system will
have fewer false positives,” explained Mansur Shomali, MD, a practicing
diabetes specialist at MedStar Union Memorial Hospital in Baltimore, MD,
and senior author of the study. “We don’t want to alert patients
needlessly or else the intervention will not be very effective.”
Hypoglycemia is one of the most dangerous, costly, and difficult
diabetes complications to manage. A recent study1 of 2.4
million type 2 diabetes patients found that hypoglycemia was especially
common in patients treated with insulin or sulfonylureas with costs for
a hypoglycemia-related hospital event averaging $10,362, regardless of a
patient’s drug regimen. A 2005 study2 further reported that
patients who had experienced hypoglycemia had 77 percent more disability
days per year. Using the new methodology, the model also could
accurately predict the hour of the hypoglycemia event over the next day
when the patients’ medication information is known.
“Hypoglycemia is very dangerous to patients and a great burden on our
health care system,” remarked Suzanne Sysko Clough, MD, Chief Medical
Officer and co-founder of WellDoc. “We are certain that incorporating
hypoglycemia prediction into a mobile health device will be a wonderful
tool for patients.”
WellDoc intends to incorporate the hypoglycemia prediction algorithms
the world’s first mobile prescription therapy for adults with type 2
diabetes. Once incorporated, BlueStar’s automated, real-time coaching
will educate a patient about how to best manage and avoid hypoglycemia.
“People respond best to information that is personal, timely, and
actionable,” explains Robin Anthony-Kouyate, Ph.D., Director of
Behavioral Science at WellDoc. “Once a patient is armed with the
knowledge that a hypoglycemia event is likely to occur in the next 24
hours they may become more receptive to learning about the consequence
of the event and what they can do to avoid going hypo.”
About WellDoc: Engaging Patients, Enhancing Outcomes™
WellDoc, a healthcare behavioral science and technology company that
develops solutions aimed at engaging patients and enhancing health
outcomes, is focused on simplifying the way chronic diseases are managed
through a collaborative, life-changing approach that breaks down the
barriers of engagement and adherence by providing patients and their
healthcare providers with real-time, actionable information. WellDoc has
developed an industry-leading, technology-based solution designed to
help people with chronic diseases better manage their conditions. Forbes
selected WellDoc as one of “America's Most Promising Companies” based on
its potential for future growth.
For more information, visit www.welldoc.com
About The American Diabetes Association 74th Scientific
June 13 - 17, 2014, San Francisco, California
Scientific Sessions is the largest diabetes meeting in the world,
bringing together nearly 18,000 participants—including more than 14,000
clinicians and researchers from all 50 states and 117 countries.
The 5-day annual meeting features timely and significant advances in
basic science and the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of diabetes.
Attendees choose from over 3,000 original presentations which include
symposia, oral abstract sessions, meet the expert sessions, interest
group discussions, guided audio poster tours, and poster presentations.
It also includes approximately 175 exhibitors showcasing the latest in
diabetes-related products, services, and technology available to health
1 Curkendall SM, Zhang B, Oh KS, Williams SA, Pollack MF,
Graham J. “Incidence and cost of hypoglycemia among patients with Type 2
diabetes in the United States: analysis of a health
insurance database.” J Clin Outcomes Manage (2011)
2 Rhoads GG, Orsini LS, Crown W, Wang S, Getahun D, Zhang Q.
“Contribution of hypoglycemia to medical care expenditures and
short-term disability in employees with diabetes.” J Occup Environ Med (2005)
Photos/Multimedia Gallery Available: http://www.businesswire.com/multimedia/home/20140616006286/en/
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