|By Marketwired .||
|July 1, 2014 12:01 AM EDT||
BOSTON, MA -- (Marketwired) -- 07/01/14 -- Workforce shortages and surpluses worldwide are becoming so acute that they threaten $10 trillion of world GDP over the next one to two decades, according to a new report being released today by The Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
This projected value loss stems from acute shortages and unrelenting surpluses that are being exacerbated by a range of factors, from anemic economic growth and aging populations to low birth rates and restrictive immigration policies.
BCG examined workforce supply-and-demand dynamics in 25 major economies -- including the G20 -- to forecast the extent of labor shortages and surpluses for 2020 and 2030. Overall, by 2020, many countries will still be experiencing a surplus. But by 2030, this surplus will for most have turned into a massive shortfall, according to the report, The Global Workforce Crisis: $10 Trillion at Risk.
"The consequences for many nations' growth and competitiveness are serious," says Rainer Strack, a BCG senior partner and a coauthor of the study. "Governments, companies, and other institutions must begin to take action now if they hope to avert the potentially long-lasting damage to national and regional economies, as well as to the global economy."
The impact of the labor imbalances worldwide will be neither simultaneous nor uniform. Here are some of the crippling shortages and chronic surpluses that the world will face:
- Germany will see a shortage of up to 2.4 million workers by 2020 and up to 10 million by 2030 -- 23 percent of the labor supply. The country will not reach its historical GDP growth rates unless it takes action soon.
- Brazil will have a shortage of up to 8.5 million workers in 2020; by 2030, that figure could increase nearly fivefold to 40.9 million people -- at 33 percent of the labor supply, more than 10 percent worse than Germany's and the highest projected 2030 shortage of the 25 nations studied.
- China is expected to have a surplus of 55.2 million to 75.3 million workers by 2020. By 2030, that surplus could reverse sharply, turning into a shortage of up to 24.5 million people.
- The U.S. is expected to have a surplus of between 17.1 million and 22 million people in 2020. By 2030, it will still face a surplus -- at a minimum, 7.4 million.
- France, Italy, and the UK, all projected to have single-digit surpluses in 2020, face labor shortages by the subsequent decade.
- South Africa faces the gloomiest prospects, with a projected surplus of 36 percent in 2020 that's expected to grow to 39 percent by 2030.
The problems associated with labor surpluses are well known. High unemployment cuts the tax base and raises the cost of social services while raising the risk of social instability. In the long term, surpluses can lead to the attrition of skills and ultimately reduce an economy's competitiveness and attractiveness to investors.
But the problems with shortages can be equally harmful to the economy because job openings cannot be filled. This fuels wage inflation and, above all, impedes business growth and competitiveness.
The authors used two scenarios for GDP -- and labor -- productivity-growth rates over two periods (the past 10 years and the past 20 years) to forecast two different future scenarios. They calculated the size of the labor force that each country would need to keep GDP and productivity growth for 2020 and 2030 at historical levels.
The report features a number of tables and charts, including graphs comparing labor supply-and-demand trends among countries within major geographic regions and a table benchmarking key labor-supply levers across the 25 countries. (See Exhibit 6 from the report, which highlights the projected imbalances.)
In addition, the authors outline the basic levers and interventions that governments can put in motion to mitigate the imbalances, such as modifying the official retirement age, liberalizing immigration policies, and encouraging greater labor force participation by specific demographic segments.
The Global Workforce Crisis: $10 Trillion at Risk is the first in a series of reports on this issue. Subsequent reports will break down the surplus and shortage numbers by education levels to reveal in greater detail the severity of global labor imbalances. They will also illustrate the consequences for companies.
"A country may appear to have a perfect balance of supply and demand," observes Strack, who is a coleader of BCG's human resources work within the firm's People & Organization practice. "But after breaking down the numbers, we might find that it actually has a surplus of 1 million people with a primary education but a shortfall of 1 million with a secondary education. This kind of de-averaging reveals the crucial challenge ahead for governments and businesses. Both will need far more sophisticated tools to analyze supply and demand and devise solutions."
To download a copy of the report, please visit www.bcgperspectives.com.
To arrange an interview with one of the authors, contact Eric Gregoire at +1 617 850 3783 or [email protected].
About The Boston Consulting Group
The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) is a global management consulting firm and the world's leading advisor on business strategy. We partner with clients from the private, public, and not-for-profit sectors in all regions to identify their highest-value opportunities, address their most critical challenges, and transform their enterprises. Our customized approach combines deep insight into the dynamics of companies and markets with close collaboration at all levels of the client organization. This ensures that our clients achieve sustainable competitive advantage, build more capable organizations, and secure lasting results. Founded in 1963, BCG is a private company with 81 offices in 45 countries. For more information, please visit bcg.com.
Bcgperspectives.com features the latest thinking from BCG experts as well as from CEOs, academics, and other leaders. It covers issues at the top of senior management's agenda. It also provides unprecedented access to BCG's extensive archive of thought leadership stretching back 50 years to the days of Bruce Henderson, the firm's founder and one of the architects of modern management consulting. All of our content -- including videos, podcasts, commentaries, and reports -- can be accessed by PC, mobile, iPad, Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn.
Image Available: http://www2.marketwire.com/mw/frame_mw?attachid=2629634
The Boston Consulting Group
Global Media Relations Manager
Tel +617 850 3783
Fax +617 850 3701
Complete Internet of Things (IoT) embedded device security is not just about the device but involves the entire product’s identity, data and control integrity, and services traversing the cloud. A device can no longer be looked at as an island; it is a part of a system. In fact, given the cross-domain interactions enabled by IoT it could be a part of many systems. Also, depending on where the device is deployed, for example, in the office building versus a factory floor or oil field, security ha...
Dec. 9, 2016 03:00 AM EST Reads: 371
In addition to all the benefits, IoT is also bringing new kind of customer experience challenges - cars that unlock themselves, thermostats turning houses into saunas and baby video monitors broadcasting over the internet. This list can only increase because while IoT services should be intuitive and simple to use, the delivery ecosystem is a myriad of potential problems as IoT explodes complexity. So finding a performance issue is like finding the proverbial needle in the haystack.
Dec. 9, 2016 02:15 AM EST Reads: 6,225
The idea of comparing data in motion (at the sensor level) to data at rest (in a Big Data server warehouse) with predictive analytics in the cloud is very appealing to the industrial IoT sector. The problem Big Data vendors have, however, is access to that data in motion at the sensor location. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Scott Allen, CMO of FreeWave, discussed how as IoT is increasingly adopted by industrial markets, there is going to be an increased demand for sensor data from the outermos...
Dec. 9, 2016 02:00 AM EST Reads: 3,034
"Qosmos has launched L7Viewer, a network traffic analysis tool, so it analyzes all the traffic between the virtual machine and the data center and the virtual machine and the external world," stated Sebastien Synold, Product Line Manager at Qosmos, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 19th Cloud Expo, held November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Dec. 9, 2016 01:45 AM EST Reads: 984
Between 2005 and 2020, data volumes will grow by a factor of 300 – enough data to stack CDs from the earth to the moon 162 times. This has come to be known as the ‘big data’ phenomenon. Unfortunately, traditional approaches to handling, storing and analyzing data aren’t adequate at this scale: they’re too costly, slow and physically cumbersome to keep up. Fortunately, in response a new breed of technology has emerged that is cheaper, faster and more scalable. Yet, in meeting these new needs they...
Dec. 9, 2016 01:45 AM EST Reads: 1,954
Data is the fuel that drives the machine learning algorithmic engines and ultimately provides the business value. In his session at 20th Cloud Expo, Ed Featherston, director/senior enterprise architect at Collaborative Consulting, will discuss the key considerations around quality, volume, timeliness, and pedigree that must be dealt with in order to properly fuel that engine.
Dec. 9, 2016 01:15 AM EST Reads: 1,660
When it comes to cloud computing, the ability to turn massive amounts of compute cores on and off on demand sounds attractive to IT staff, who need to manage peaks and valleys in user activity. With cloud bursting, the majority of the data can stay on premises while tapping into compute from public cloud providers, reducing risk and minimizing need to move large files. In his session at 18th Cloud Expo, Scott Jeschonek, Director of Product Management at Avere Systems, discussed the IT and busin...
Dec. 9, 2016 01:15 AM EST Reads: 3,977
More and more companies are looking to microservices as an architectural pattern for breaking apart applications into more manageable pieces so that agile teams can deliver new features quicker and more effectively. What this pattern has done more than anything to date is spark organizational transformations, setting the foundation for future application development. In practice, however, there are a number of considerations to make that go beyond simply “build, ship, and run,” which changes how...
Dec. 9, 2016 12:45 AM EST Reads: 5,117
In his general session at 19th Cloud Expo, Manish Dixit, VP of Product and Engineering at Dice, discussed how Dice leverages data insights and tools to help both tech professionals and recruiters better understand how skills relate to each other and which skills are in high demand using interactive visualizations and salary indicator tools to maximize earning potential. Manish Dixit is VP of Product and Engineering at Dice. As the leader of the Product, Engineering and Data Sciences team at D...
Dec. 9, 2016 12:45 AM EST Reads: 1,209
SYS-CON Events has announced today that Roger Strukhoff has been named conference chair of Cloud Expo and @ThingsExpo 2017 New York. The 20th Cloud Expo and 7th @ThingsExpo will take place on June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY. "The Internet of Things brings trillions of dollars of opportunity to developers and enterprise IT, no matter how you measure it," stated Roger Strukhoff. "More importantly, it leverages the power of devices and the Internet to enable us all to im...
Dec. 9, 2016 12:30 AM EST Reads: 886
"We are the public cloud providers. We are currently providing 50% of the resources they need for doing e-commerce business in China and we are hosting about 60% of mobile gaming in China," explained Yi Zheng, CPO and VP of Engineering at CDS Global Cloud, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 19th Cloud Expo, held November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Dec. 9, 2016 12:00 AM EST Reads: 1,176
Whether your IoT service is connecting cars, homes, appliances, wearable, cameras or other devices, one question hangs in the balance – how do you actually make money from this service? The ability to turn your IoT service into profit requires the ability to create a monetization strategy that is flexible, scalable and working for you in real-time. It must be a transparent, smoothly implemented strategy that all stakeholders – from customers to the board – will be able to understand and comprehe...
Dec. 9, 2016 12:00 AM EST Reads: 711
"Once customers get a year into their IoT deployments, they start to realize that they may have been shortsighted in the ways they built out their deployment and the key thing I see a lot of people looking at is - how can I take equipment data, pull it back in an IoT solution and show it in a dashboard," stated Dave McCarthy, Director of Products at Bsquare Corporation, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @ThingsExpo, held November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
Dec. 8, 2016 09:45 PM EST Reads: 1,243
In IT, we sometimes coin terms for things before we know exactly what they are and how they’ll be used. The resulting terms may capture a common set of aspirations and goals – as “cloud” did broadly for on-demand, self-service, and flexible computing. But such a term can also lump together diverse and even competing practices, technologies, and priorities to the point where important distinctions are glossed over and lost.
Dec. 8, 2016 09:15 PM EST Reads: 1,672
What happens when the different parts of a vehicle become smarter than the vehicle itself? As we move toward the era of smart everything, hundreds of entities in a vehicle that communicate with each other, the vehicle and external systems create a need for identity orchestration so that all entities work as a conglomerate. Much like an orchestra without a conductor, without the ability to secure, control, and connect the link between a vehicle’s head unit, devices, and systems and to manage the ...
Dec. 8, 2016 09:15 PM EST Reads: 970