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Richmond Fed's Economic Quarterly Explores GDP Growth During and After the Great Recession

RICHMOND, VA -- (Marketwired) -- 07/17/14 -- In the latest issue of Economic Quarterly, Richmond Fed senior advisor Pierre-Daniel Sarte and research associates Jonathon Lecznar and Robert Sharp examine the extent to which U.S. per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been uncharacteristically slow in the recovery from the 2007-09 recession and investigate whether this tepid growth might be a short- or longer-term phenomenon. They first examine several conventional univariate time series representations of per capita GDP and use these to assess the most recent recession and recovery in relation to its previous behavior over the U.S. post-war period. They then present a decomposition of per capita GDP into three components -- each of which tends to fluctuate at different frequencies from the others -- and find that the substantial decline in the labor force participation rate during and after the Great Recession played a key role in the unusually large fall and slow recovery of per capita GDP. Since the labor force participation rate moves slowly over time, one might expect per capita GDP to continue to recover at a considerably slower pace than what has been observed after other post-war recessions.

Find the full text of this article and others in the latest issue of Economic Quarterly on our website.

Also in this issue:

  • MBS Real Estate Investment Trusts: A Primer by Sabrina R. Pellerin, Steven J. Sabol, and John R. Walter
  • Does Intra-Firm Bargaining Matter for Business Cycle Dynamics? by Michael U. Krause and Thomas A. Lubik

The Economic Quarterly is a free publication containing economic analysis pertinent to Federal Reserve monetary and banking policy. For more information, contact the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond's Research Department -- Publications at 800.322.0565 or visit www.richmondfed.org/research/.

Contacts:
John Weinberg
Director of Research
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
804.697.8205

Amanda Kramer
Senior Managing Editor
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly
Email Contact
804.697.8606

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