|By PR Newswire||
|August 4, 2014 10:05 AM EDT||
LONDON, Aug. 4, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Reportbuyer.com has added a new market research report:
T he US economy will accelerate slightly this year, with real GDP growth increasing to 2.1% from 1.9% in 2013. Stronger contributions from personal consumption expenditure growth will be offset somewhat by slower fixed investment growth and a contraction in government spending, as well as a negative contribution from net exports. The federal government's fiscal accounts will show another year of substantial improvement, due to stronger revenue collection and continued fiscal restraint due to the budget sequester. We forecast the deficit will narrow to 3.0% of GDP from 4.0% of GDP in 2013. S tronger domestic oil and gas production will reduce the need for imported energy again in 2014, but this dynamic will be offset by accelerating domestic economic activity, which will boost imports. We forecast a current account deficit of 2.2% of GDP in 2014, the narrowest since 1997.
We continue to believe that the US Federal Reserve will wind down its current quantitative easing programme by end-2014, despite weak economic data in the first quarter of the year. That said, we acknowledge that substantial slack remains in the labour market, and in light of a weak inflation outlook we do not anticipate the first hike to the Fed funds rate until H215. We believe that Republicans are heavily favoured to retain control of the US House of Representatives and slightly favoured to take control of the Senate from Democrats in November mid-term elections. As a result, we believe the final two years of President Barack Obama's second term will be marked by renewed legislative efforts by Republicans to roll back key parts of the Affordable Care Act health reform law, his signature legislative achievement, as well as the potential for additional tax and spending cuts. Such initiatives could set the stage for a return of the type of legislative brinksmanship that has become common in recent years, elevating policy risk substantially.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised down our 2014 real GDP forecast to 2.1% from 2.4% previously. The downward revision is due to base effects from a 2.9% contraction in Q114. We do not believe that this weak growth print was the start of a sustained slowdown in the US economy. W e expect the current account shortfall to narrow only slightly this year, forecasting a 2.2% of GDP deficit in 2014, compared to our earlier forecast of 2.1%. The slower narrowing is due to a weaker goods trade account through the first five months of 2014.
Executive Summary.... 5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook.. 7
SWOT Analysis.... 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings. 7
Domestic Politics .... 8
First-Ever House Majority Leader Defeat Makes Compromise Less Likely....8
The defeat of US House Majority Leader Eric Cantor by a virtually unknown challenger will set back bipartisan efforts on immigration
reform and raise the spectre of a return to the politics of brinksmanship that had become prevalent in recent years on the budget, taxes,
and debt policy.
table: political overview....8
Foreign Policy 9
US Geopolitical Reversals Temporary, Iran And SE Asia Offer Opportunities...9
The US's geopolitical influence will continue to weaken over the next few years due to setbacks in Ukraine and the Levant. However,
over the long term, Washington has major opportunities to strengthen its position through a rapprochement with Iran and closer ties with
South East Asian states, as well as India.
Long-Term Political Outlook 12
Tough Challenges In The Coming Years..12
The 2010s continue to be challenging for the US, mainly due to the aftermath of the 2007-2009 recession and several unresolved foreign
policy issues. Meanwhile, two of the main trends in US politics will be the rise of the south-western states and Hispanic-Americans as key
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook.. 15
SWOT Analysis.. 15
BMI Economic Risk Ratings. 15
Economic Activity.. 16
Only A Slight Acceleration Due To Q1 GDP Contraction.16
The US economy's Q114 real GDP contraction of 2.9% will yield to positive growth over the coming quarters, as labour market
tightening and strong consumer confidence bolster household spending, and fixed investment picks up. The base effects from weak Q1
growth, however, have prompted us to revise down our 2014 real GDP forecast from 2.4% to 2.1%, implying only a slight acceleration
from 1.9% growth in 2013.
table: GDP By Expenditure 16
Exchange Rate Policy 18
USD: Current Account And Monetary Normalisation To Bolster Dollar..18
The US dollar is approaching or testing key support levels against the euro and the pound sterling, which we expect to hold, forecasting
the dollar to appreciate against both currencies in H214 and into 2015.
table: BMI Currency Forecast...18
Balance Of Payments . 20
Current Account Deficit Narrowing To Resume In H214..20
A multi-year trend of strong growth in domestic energy production will continue to narrow the US current account deficit over the next
several years. However, weaker than expected trade dynamics in Q114 have caused us to revise our 2014 current account forecast
from a deficit of 2.1% of GDP to 2.2% of GDP, only slightly narrower than the 2.3% deficit recorded in 2013.
table: Current Account20
Fiscal Policy . 22
Budget Shortfall To Narrow To Long-Term Average In 201422
The US federal budget deficit will narrow from 4.0% of GDP in 2013 to 3.0% in 2014 due to another year of fairly strong revenues, the
result of greater payroll and income taxes, as well as what we forecast will be no growth in spending this year.
table: Fiscal Policy....23
Monetary Policy 25
Taper Over In H214, First Hikes In H215..25
Strengthening macroeconomic data will enable the US Federal Reserve to conclude its asset purchasing programme by end-2014. We
expect the first rate hikes in H215, brin ging the Fed funds rate to 0.75% by the end of 2015.
table: Monetary Policy 25
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 27
The US Economy To 2023.... 27
Slowing Growth Over The Next Decade...27
The US economy's pace of growth is set to slow over the next 10 years to a long-term rate of 2.4% as deleveraging from a massive
credit binge and demographic shifts takes their toll. Nonetheless, BMI believes that the US is going to remain the world's greatest
economic power over our 10-year forecast period and beyond.
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts..27
Chapter 4: Business Environment 31
SWOT Analysis.. 31
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings 31
Business Environment Outlook 32
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS...32
TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATINGs33
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY.34
Market Orientation.. 35
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS....35
Operational Risk 36
table: Top Export Destinations, 2002-2009 36
Chapter 5: Key Sectors.. 39
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare.. 39
table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts40
table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts... 41
table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts .... 41
table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts... 42
table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts 43
table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts . 44
table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts.. 44
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions. 47
Global Outlook... 47
Global Recovery Still On Track..47
Table: Global Assumptions....47
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %.48
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %.. 48
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %49
Read the full report:
For more information:
Research Advisor at Reportbuyer.com
Email: [email protected]
Tel: +44 208 816 85 48
SYS-CON Events announced today that Isomorphic Software will exhibit at DevOps Summit at 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Isomorphic Software provides the SmartClient HTML5/AJAX platform, the most advanced technology for building rich, cutting-edge enterprise web applications for desktop and mobile. SmartClient combines the productivity and performance of traditional desktop software with the simp...
Aug. 29, 2016 03:00 AM EDT Reads: 2,394
Extreme Computing is the ability to leverage highly performant infrastructure and software to accelerate Big Data, machine learning, HPC, and Enterprise applications. High IOPS Storage, low-latency networks, in-memory databases, GPUs and other parallel accelerators are being used to achieve faster results and help businesses make better decisions. In his session at 18th Cloud Expo, Michael O'Neill, Strategic Business Development at NVIDIA, focused on some of the unique ways extreme computing is...
Aug. 29, 2016 02:15 AM EDT Reads: 2,198
With so much going on in this space you could be forgiven for thinking you were always working with yesterday’s technologies. So much change, so quickly. What do you do if you have to build a solution from the ground up that is expected to live in the field for at least 5-10 years? This is the challenge we faced when we looked to refresh our existing 10-year-old custom hardware stack to measure the fullness of trash cans and compactors.
Aug. 29, 2016 02:15 AM EDT Reads: 1,817
The emerging Internet of Everything creates tremendous new opportunities for customer engagement and business model innovation. However, enterprises must overcome a number of critical challenges to bring these new solutions to market. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Michael Martin, CTO/CIO at nfrastructure, outlined these key challenges and recommended approaches for overcoming them to achieve speed and agility in the design, development and implementation of Internet of Everything solutions wi...
Aug. 29, 2016 01:45 AM EDT Reads: 2,174
Cloud computing is being adopted in one form or another by 94% of enterprises today. Tens of billions of new devices are being connected to The Internet of Things. And Big Data is driving this bus. An exponential increase is expected in the amount of information being processed, managed, analyzed, and acted upon by enterprise IT. This amazing is not part of some distant future - it is happening today. One report shows a 650% increase in enterprise data by 2020. Other estimates are even higher....
Aug. 29, 2016 01:15 AM EDT Reads: 3,008
With over 720 million Internet users and 40–50% CAGR, the Chinese Cloud Computing market has been booming. When talking about cloud computing, what are the Chinese users of cloud thinking about? What is the most powerful force that can push them to make the buying decision? How to tap into them? In his session at 18th Cloud Expo, Yu Hao, CEO and co-founder of SpeedyCloud, answered these questions and discussed the results of SpeedyCloud’s survey.
Aug. 29, 2016 01:00 AM EDT Reads: 2,222
Today we can collect lots and lots of performance data. We build beautiful dashboards and even have fancy query languages to access and transform the data. Still performance data is a secret language only a couple of people understand. The more business becomes digital the more stakeholders are interested in this data including how it relates to business. Some of these people have never used a monitoring tool before. They have a question on their mind like “How is my application doing” but no id...
Aug. 29, 2016 12:00 AM EDT Reads: 1,889
Actian Corporation has announced the latest version of the Actian Vector in Hadoop (VectorH) database, generally available at the end of July. VectorH is based on the same query engine that powers Actian Vector, which recently doubled the TPC-H benchmark record for non-clustered systems at the 3000GB scale factor (see tpc.org/3323). The ability to easily ingest information from different data sources and rapidly develop queries to make better business decisions is becoming increasingly importan...
Aug. 28, 2016 11:15 PM EDT Reads: 2,150
The 19th International Cloud Expo has announced that its Call for Papers is open. Cloud Expo, to be held November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, brings together Cloud Computing, Big Data, Internet of Things, DevOps, Digital Transformation, Microservices and WebRTC to one location. With cloud computing driving a higher percentage of enterprise IT budgets every year, it becomes increasingly important to plant your flag in this fast-expanding business opportuni...
Aug. 28, 2016 10:30 PM EDT Reads: 4,060
Qosmos has announced new milestones in the detection of encrypted traffic and in protocol signature coverage. Qosmos latest software can accurately classify traffic encrypted with SSL/TLS (e.g., Google, Facebook, WhatsApp), P2P traffic (e.g., BitTorrent, MuTorrent, Vuze), and Skype, while preserving the privacy of communication content. These new classification techniques mean that traffic optimization, policy enforcement, and user experience are largely unaffected by encryption. In respect wit...
Aug. 28, 2016 08:30 PM EDT Reads: 1,845
Deploying applications in hybrid cloud environments is hard work. Your team spends most of the time maintaining your infrastructure, configuring dev/test and production environments, and deploying applications across environments – which can be both time consuming and error prone. But what if you could automate provisioning and deployment to deliver error free environments faster? What could you do with your free time?
Aug. 28, 2016 08:15 PM EDT Reads: 1,957
SYS-CON Events announced today that Hitrons Solutions will exhibit at the 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Hitrons Solutions Inc. is distributor in the North American market for unique products and services of small and medium-size businesses, including cloud services and solutions, SEO marketing platforms, and mobile applications.
Aug. 28, 2016 07:30 PM EDT Reads: 714
Smart Cities are here to stay, but for their promise to be delivered, the data they produce must not be put in new siloes. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Mathias Herberts, Co-founder and CTO of Cityzen Data, will deep dive into best practices that will ensure a successful smart city journey.
Aug. 28, 2016 06:30 PM EDT Reads: 1,635
SYS-CON Events announced today that 910Telecom will exhibit at the 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Housed in the classic Denver Gas & Electric Building, 910 15th St., 910Telecom is a carrier-neutral telecom hotel located in the heart of Denver. Adjacent to CenturyLink, AT&T, and Denver Main, 910Telecom offers connectivity to all major carriers, Internet service providers, Internet backbones and ...
Aug. 28, 2016 06:00 PM EDT Reads: 1,948
SYS-CON Events announced today that eCube Systems, a leading provider of middleware modernization, integration, and management solutions, will exhibit at @DevOpsSummit at 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. eCube Systems offers a family of middleware evolution products and services that maximize return on technology investment by leveraging existing technical equity to meet evolving business needs. ...
Aug. 28, 2016 05:30 PM EDT Reads: 791