Welcome!

News Feed Item

United States Business Forecast Report Q4 2014

LONDON, Aug. 4, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Reportbuyer.com has added a new market research report:

United States Business Forecast Report Q4 2014

http://www.reportbuyer.com/countries/north_america/usa/united_states_business_forecast_report_q4.html

Core Views

T he US economy will accelerate slightly this year, with real GDP growth increasing to 2.1% from 1.9% in 2013. Stronger contributions from personal consumption expenditure growth will be offset somewhat by slower fixed investment growth and a contraction in government spending, as well as a negative contribution from net exports. The federal government's fiscal accounts will show another year of substantial improvement, due to stronger revenue collection and continued fiscal restraint due to the budget sequester. We forecast the deficit will narrow to 3.0% of GDP from 4.0% of GDP in 2013. S tronger domestic oil and gas production will reduce the need for imported energy again in 2014, but this dynamic will be offset by accelerating domestic economic activity, which will boost imports. We forecast a current account deficit of 2.2% of GDP in 2014, the narrowest since 1997.

We continue to believe that the US Federal Reserve will wind down its current quantitative easing programme by end-2014, despite weak economic data in the first quarter of the year. That said, we acknowledge that substantial slack remains in the labour market, and in light of a weak inflation outlook we do not anticipate the first hike to the Fed funds rate until H215. We believe that Republicans are heavily favoured to retain control of the US House of Representatives and slightly favoured to take control of the Senate from Democrats in November mid-term elections. As a result, we believe the final two years of President Barack Obama's second term will be marked by renewed legislative efforts by Republicans to roll back key parts of the Affordable Care Act health reform law, his signature legislative achievement, as well as the potential for additional tax and spending cuts. Such initiatives could set the stage for a return of the type of legislative brinksmanship that has become common in recent years, elevating policy risk substantially.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised down our 2014 real GDP forecast to 2.1% from 2.4% previously. The downward revision is due to base effects from a 2.9% contraction in Q114. We do not believe that this weak growth print was the start of a sustained slowdown in the US economy. W e expect the current account shortfall to narrow only slightly this year, forecasting a 2.2% of GDP deficit in 2014, compared to our earlier forecast of 2.1%. The slower narrowing is due to a weaker goods trade account through the first five months of 2014.

Executive Summary.... 5

Core Views..5

Chapter 1: Political Outlook.. 7

SWOT Analysis.... 7

BMI Political Risk Ratings. 7

Domestic Politics .... 8

First-Ever House Majority Leader Defeat Makes Compromise Less Likely....8

The defeat of US House Majority Leader Eric Cantor by a virtually unknown challenger will set back bipartisan efforts on immigration

reform and raise the spectre of a return to the politics of brinksmanship that had become prevalent in recent years on the budget, taxes,

and debt policy.

table: political overview....8

Foreign Policy 9

US Geopolitical Reversals Temporary, Iran And SE Asia Offer Opportunities...9

The US's geopolitical influence will continue to weaken over the next few years due to setbacks in Ukraine and the Levant. However,

over the long term, Washington has major opportunities to strengthen its position through a rapprochement with Iran and closer ties with

South East Asian states, as well as India.

Long-Term Political Outlook 12

Tough Challenges In The Coming Years..12

The 2010s continue to be challenging for the US, mainly due to the aftermath of the 2007-2009 recession and several unresolved foreign

policy issues. Meanwhile, two of the main trends in US politics will be the rise of the south-western states and Hispanic-Americans as key

forces.

Chapter 2: Economic Outlook.. 15

SWOT Analysis.. 15

BMI Economic Risk Ratings. 15

Economic Activity.. 16

Only A Slight Acceleration Due To Q1 GDP Contraction.16

The US economy's Q114 real GDP contraction of 2.9% will yield to positive growth over the coming quarters, as labour market

tightening and strong consumer confidence bolster household spending, and fixed investment picks up. The base effects from weak Q1

growth, however, have prompted us to revise down our 2014 real GDP forecast from 2.4% to 2.1%, implying only a slight acceleration

from 1.9% growth in 2013.

table: GDP By Expenditure 16

Exchange Rate Policy 18

USD: Current Account And Monetary Normalisation To Bolster Dollar..18

The US dollar is approaching or testing key support levels against the euro and the pound sterling, which we expect to hold, forecasting

the dollar to appreciate against both currencies in H214 and into 2015.

table: BMI Currency Forecast...18

Balance Of Payments . 20

Current Account Deficit Narrowing To Resume In H214..20

A multi-year trend of strong growth in domestic energy production will continue to narrow the US current account deficit over the next

several years. However, weaker than expected trade dynamics in Q114 have caused us to revise our 2014 current account forecast

from a deficit of 2.1% of GDP to 2.2% of GDP, only slightly narrower than the 2.3% deficit recorded in 2013.

table: Current Account20

Fiscal Policy . 22

Budget Shortfall To Narrow To Long-Term Average In 201422

The US federal budget deficit will narrow from 4.0% of GDP in 2013 to 3.0% in 2014 due to another year of fairly strong revenues, the

result of greater payroll and income taxes, as well as what we forecast will be no growth in spending this year.

table: Fiscal Policy....23

Monetary Policy 25

Taper Over In H214, First Hikes In H215..25

Strengthening macroeconomic data will enable the US Federal Reserve to conclude its asset purchasing programme by end-2014. We

expect the first rate hikes in H215, brin ging the Fed funds rate to 0.75% by the end of 2015.

table: Monetary Policy 25

Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast 27

The US Economy To 2023.... 27

Slowing Growth Over The Next Decade...27

The US economy's pace of growth is set to slow over the next 10 years to a long-term rate of 2.4% as deleveraging from a massive

credit binge and demographic shifts takes their toll. Nonetheless, BMI believes that the US is going to remain the world's greatest

economic power over our 10-year forecast period and beyond.

TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts..27

Chapter 4: Business Environment 31

SWOT Analysis.. 31

BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings 31

Business Environment Outlook 32

Institutions.... 32

TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS...32

Infrastructure 33

TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATINGs33

TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY.34

Market Orientation.. 35

TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS....35

Operational Risk 36

table: Top Export Destinations, 2002-2009 36

Chapter 5: Key Sectors.. 39

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare.. 39

table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts40

table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts... 41

table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts .... 41

Telecommunications... 42

table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts... 42

table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts 43

table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts . 44

table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts.. 44

Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions. 47

Global Outlook... 47

Global Recovery Still On Track..47

Table: Global Assumptions....47

Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %.48

Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %.. 48

Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %49

 

 

Read the full report:

United States Business Forecast Report Q4 2014

http://www.reportbuyer.com/countries/north_america/usa/united_states_business_forecast_report_q4.html

For more information:

Sarah Smith

Research Advisor at Reportbuyer.com

Email: [email protected]

Tel: +44 208 816 85 48

Website: www.reportbuyer.com

 

SOURCE ReportBuyer

More Stories By PR Newswire

Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Latest Stories
To get the most out of their data, successful companies are not focusing on queries and data lakes, they are actively integrating analytics into their operations with a data-first application development approach. Real-time adjustments to improve revenues, reduce costs, or mitigate risk rely on applications that minimize latency on a variety of data sources. Jack Norris reviews best practices to show how companies develop, deploy, and dynamically update these applications and how this data-first...
Intelligent Automation is now one of the key business imperatives for CIOs and CISOs impacting all areas of business today. In his session at 21st Cloud Expo, Brian Boeggeman, VP Alliances & Partnerships at Ayehu, will talk about how business value is created and delivered through intelligent automation to today’s enterprises. The open ecosystem platform approach toward Intelligent Automation that Ayehu delivers to the market is core to enabling the creation of the self-driving enterprise.
"At the keynote this morning we spoke about the value proposition of Nutanix, of having a DevOps culture and a mindset, and the business outcomes of achieving agility and scale, which everybody here is trying to accomplish," noted Mark Lavi, DevOps Solution Architect at Nutanix, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @DevOpsSummit at 20th Cloud Expo, held June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY.
"We're here to tell the world about our cloud-scale infrastructure that we have at Juniper combined with the world-class security that we put into the cloud," explained Lisa Guess, VP of Systems Engineering at Juniper Networks, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 20th Cloud Expo, held June 6-8, 2017, at the Javits Center in New York City, NY.
Historically, some banking activities such as trading have been relying heavily on analytics and cutting edge algorithmic tools. The coming of age of powerful data analytics solutions combined with the development of intelligent algorithms have created new opportunities for financial institutions. In his session at 20th Cloud Expo, Sebastien Meunier, Head of Digital for North America at Chappuis Halder & Co., discussed how these tools can be leveraged to develop a lasting competitive advantage ...
"We're a cybersecurity firm that specializes in engineering security solutions both at the software and hardware level. Security cannot be an after-the-fact afterthought, which is what it's become," stated Richard Blech, Chief Executive Officer at Secure Channels, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at @ThingsExpo, held November 1-3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA.
As businesses adopt functionalities in cloud computing, it’s imperative that IT operations consistently ensure cloud systems work correctly – all of the time, and to their best capabilities. In his session at @BigDataExpo, Bernd Harzog, CEO and founder of OpsDataStore, presented an industry answer to the common question, “Are you running IT operations as efficiently and as cost effectively as you need to?” He then expounded on the industry issues he frequently came up against as an analyst, and ...
The question before companies today is not whether to become intelligent, it’s a question of how and how fast. The key is to adopt and deploy an intelligent application strategy while simultaneously preparing to scale that intelligence. In her session at 21st Cloud Expo, Sangeeta Chakraborty, Chief Customer Officer at Ayasdi, will provide a tactical framework to become a truly intelligent enterprise, including how to identify the right applications for AI, how to build a Center of Excellence to ...
In his session at 20th Cloud Expo, Mike Johnston, an infrastructure engineer at Supergiant.io, discussed how to use Kubernetes to set up a SaaS infrastructure for your business. Mike Johnston is an infrastructure engineer at Supergiant.io with over 12 years of experience designing, deploying, and maintaining server and workstation infrastructure at all scales. He has experience with brick and mortar data centers as well as cloud providers like Digital Ocean, Amazon Web Services, and Rackspace. H...
You know you need the cloud, but you’re hesitant to simply dump everything at Amazon since you know that not all workloads are suitable for cloud. You know that you want the kind of ease of use and scalability that you get with public cloud, but your applications are architected in a way that makes the public cloud a non-starter. You’re looking at private cloud solutions based on hyperconverged infrastructure, but you’re concerned with the limits inherent in those technologies.
SYS-CON Events announced today that Massive Networks will exhibit at SYS-CON's 21st International Cloud Expo®, which will take place on Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2017, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Massive Networks mission is simple. To help your business operate seamlessly with fast, reliable, and secure internet and network solutions. Improve your customer's experience with outstanding connections to your cloud.
DevOps is under attack because developers don’t want to mess with infrastructure. They will happily own their code into production, but want to use platforms instead of raw automation. That’s changing the landscape that we understand as DevOps with both architecture concepts (CloudNative) and process redefinition (SRE). Rob Hirschfeld’s recent work in Kubernetes operations has led to the conclusion that containers and related platforms have changed the way we should be thinking about DevOps and...
Given the popularity of the containers, further investment in the telco/cable industry is needed to transition existing VM-based solutions to containerized cloud native deployments. The networking architecture of the solution isolates the network traffic into different network planes (e.g., management, control, and media). This naturally makes support for multiple interfaces in container orchestration engines an indispensable requirement.
Everything run by electricity will eventually be connected to the Internet. Get ahead of the Internet of Things revolution and join Akvelon expert and IoT industry leader, Sergey Grebnov, in his session at @ThingsExpo, for an educational dive into the world of managing your home, workplace and all the devices they contain with the power of machine-based AI and intelligent Bot services for a completely streamlined experience.
Because IoT devices are deployed in mission-critical environments more than ever before, it’s increasingly imperative they be truly smart. IoT sensors simply stockpiling data isn’t useful. IoT must be artificially and naturally intelligent in order to provide more value In his session at @ThingsExpo, John Crupi, Vice President and Engineering System Architect at Greenwave Systems, will discuss how IoT artificial intelligence (AI) can be carried out via edge analytics and machine learning techn...