News Feed Item

Stronger Global Economic Growth Expected Despite Risks, Says BNY Mellon's Richard Hoey

U.S. Eight-Year Economic Expansion (2009-2017) Expected, Worries Could Hold Back Confidence in Europe

NEW YORK and LONDON, Aug. 8, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Despite geopolitical turmoil and global economic uncertainties, both the global and U.S. economy appear to be at an inflection point in mid-2014 to a somewhat stronger growth rate despite risks, according to BNY Mellon Chief Economist Richard Hoey in his most recent Economic Update. 

"After an initial global growth surge early in the expansion reflecting an easing financial crisis and aggressive Chinese stimulus, global growth has been running at a sustained but sluggish pace for several years," said Hoey.  "This has extended through the first half of 2014 since two major countries (the U.S. and Japan) were roughly flat in the first half of 2014 while the initial phase of the fragile European recovery from its double-dip recession was quite tentative."

"There has been a clear improvement in the U.S. labor market in recent months," Hoey continued.  "We expect mid-2015 to represent the transition from five years of U.S. economic growth slightly above 2% to three years of three percent growth in a 'three-for-three' pattern.  The expected acceleration does not reflect major new sources of strength but rather the fading of several drags, including the fiscal tightening and private sector deleveraging.  Thus we continue to expect an 'eight-year economic expansion' (2009 to 2017) in the U.S."

"Geopolitical turmoil has been occurring in a number of locations and appears to have worsened recently.  We are hopeful that a major disruption in the flow of oil from Iraq can be avoided, given the location of the Iraqi oil fields.  We do expect that there will be continued worry about the flow of natural gas from Russia to Europe this winter.  Those worries could hold back confidence in Europe over the next several months even if a major disruption of natural gas supplies to major European countries this winter can be avoided, which is our expectation," Hoey concluded.  Other report highlights include:

China Sustained Expansion Expected – Contrary to a talked about "Chinese financial meltdown scenario," Hoey expects a sustained expansion and a gradual downshift in Chinese trend growth over the coming years.

Japanese Expansion Resuming – Japanese real GDP growth should be reported to be roughly flat in the first half of 2014 in a very volatile pattern, according to Hoey.

European Recovery Sluggish but Sustained – While the Ukraine conflict and associated sanctions should weaken Russian demand for imports from Europe and raise uncertainties about the outlook for the European economy, the most likely case for Europe is sustained economic recovery at a sluggish pace over the next several years according to Hoey.

See https://www.bnymellon.com/us/en/our-thinking/foresight/economic-update-stronger-growth-despite-risks.jsp for Hoey's complete Economic Outlook.    

Notes to Editors:

BNY Mellon Investment Management is one of the world's leading investment management organizations and one of the top U.S. wealth managers, with $1.6 trillion in assets under management. It encompasses BNY Mellon's affiliated investment management firms, wealth management services and global distribution companies. More information can be found at www.bnymellon.com.

BNY Mellon is a global investments company dedicated to helping its clients manage and service their financial assets throughout the investment lifecycle. Whether providing financial services for institutions, corporations or individual investors, BNY Mellon delivers informed investment management and investment services in 35 countries and more than 100 markets. As of June 30, 2014, BNY Mellon had $28.5 trillion in assets under custody and/or administration, and $1.6 trillion in assets under management. BNY Mellon can act as a single point of contact for clients looking to create, trade, hold, manage, service, distribute or restructure investments. BNY Mellon is the corporate brand of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE: BK). Learn more at www.bnymellon.com, or follow us on Twitter @BNYMellon.

All information source BNY Mellon as of June 30, 2014. This press release is qualified for issuance in the UK, Europe and US and is for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer or solicitation of securities or investment services or an endorsement thereof in any jurisdiction or in any circumstance in which such offer or solicitation is unlawful or not authorized. Any views and opinions contained in this document are those of the investment manager, unless otherwise noted. This press release is issued by BNY Mellon Investment Management (US) and BNY Mellon Investment Management EMEA Limited (BNYMIM EMEA) to members of the financial press and media and the information contained herein should not be construed as investment advice.  Past performance is not a guide to future performance.  The value of investments and the income from them is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise due to stock market and currency movements.  When you sell your investment you may get back less than you originally invested. Registered office of BNYMIM EMEA: BNY Mellon Centre, 160 Queen Victoria Street, London, EC4V 4LA. Registered in England no. 1118580. Authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. A BNY Mellon Company. 



Patrice Kozlowski

Louisa Bartoszek

+1 212 922 6030

+44 20 7163 2826

[email protected]

[email protected]



More Stories By PR Newswire

Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Latest Stories
SYS-CON Events announced today that Enzu will exhibit at the 19th International Cloud Expo, which will take place on November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Enzu’s mission is to be the leading provider of enterprise cloud solutions worldwide. Enzu enables online businesses to use its IT infrastructure to their competitive advantage. By offering a suite of proven hosting and management services, Enzu wants companies to focus on the core of their online busine...
In his session at 19th Cloud Expo, Nick Son, Vice President of Cyber Risk & Public Sector at Coalfire, will discuss the latest information on the FedRAMP Program. Topics will cover: FedRAMP Readiness Assessment Report (RAR). This new process is designed to streamline and accelerate the FedRAMP process from the traditional timeline by initially focusing on technical capability instead of documentation preparedness. FedRAMP for High-impact level systems. Early in 2016 FedRAMP officially publishe...
The explosion of new web/cloud/IoT-based applications and the data they generate are transforming our world right before our eyes. In this rush to adopt these new technologies, organizations are often ignoring fundamental questions concerning who owns the data and failing to ask for permission to conduct invasive surveillance of their customers. Organizations that are not transparent about how their systems gather data telemetry without offering shared data ownership risk product rejection, regu...
Join IBM November 2 at 19th Cloud Expo at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA, and learn how to go beyond multi-speed it to bring agility to traditional enterprise applications. Technology innovation is the driving force behind modern business and enterprises must respond by increasing the speed and efficiency of software delivery. The challenge is that existing enterprise applications are expensive to develop and difficult to modernize. This often results in what Gartner calls...
WebRTC sits at the intersection between VoIP and the Web. As such, it poses some interesting challenges for those developing services on top of it, but also for those who need to test and monitor these services. In his session at WebRTC Summit, Tsahi Levent-Levi, co-founder of testRTC, reviewed the various challenges posed by WebRTC when it comes to testing and monitoring and on ways to overcome them.
Bert Loomis was a visionary. This general session will highlight how Bert Loomis and people like him inspire us to build great things with small inventions. In their general session at 19th Cloud Expo, Harold Hannon, Architect at IBM Bluemix, and Michael O'Neill, Strategic Business Development at Nvidia, will discuss the accelerating pace of AI development and how IBM Cloud and NVIDIA are partnering to bring AI capabilities to "every day," on-demand. They will also review two "free infrastruct...
Qosmos, the market leader for IP traffic classification and network intelligence technology, has announced that it will launch the Launch L7 Viewer at CloudExpo | @ThingsExpo Silicon Valley, being held November 1 – 3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. The L7 Viewer is a traffic analysis tool that provides complete visibility of all network traffic that crosses a virtualized infrastructure, up to Layer 7. It facilitates and accelerates common IT tasks such as VM migra...
WebRTC defines no default signaling protocol, causing fragmentation between WebRTC silos. SIP and XMPP provide possibilities, but come with considerable complexity and are not designed for use in a web environment. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Matthew Hodgson, technical co-founder of the Matrix.org, discussed how Matrix is a new non-profit Open Source Project that defines both a new HTTP-based standard for VoIP & IM signaling and provides reference implementations.
Rapid innovation, changing business landscapes, and new IT demands force businesses to make changes quickly. In the eyes of many, containers are at the brink of becoming a pervasive technology in enterprise IT to accelerate application delivery. In this presentation, you'll learn about the: The transformation of IT to a DevOps, microservices, and container-based architecture What are containers and how DevOps practices can operate in a container-based environment A demonstration of how Docke...
The Internet of Things (IoT) promises to simplify and streamline our lives by automating routine tasks that distract us from our goals. This promise is based on the ubiquitous deployment of smart, connected devices that link everything from industrial control systems to automobiles to refrigerators. Unfortunately, comparatively few of the devices currently deployed have been developed with an eye toward security, and as the DDoS attacks of late October 2016 have demonstrated, this oversight can ...
Smart Cities are here to stay, but for their promise to be delivered, the data they produce must not be put in new siloes. In his session at @ThingsExpo, Mathias Herberts, Co-founder and CTO of Cityzen Data, will deep dive into best practices that will ensure a successful smart city journey.
President Obama recently announced the launch of a new national awareness campaign to "encourage more Americans to move beyond passwords – adding an extra layer of security like a fingerprint or codes sent to your cellphone." The shift from single passwords to multi-factor authentication couldn’t be timelier or more strategic. This session will focus on why passwords alone are no longer effective, and why the time to act is now. In his session at 19th Cloud Expo, Chris Webber, security strateg...
November 1–3, 2016, at the Santa Clara Convention Center in Santa Clara, CA. Penta Security is a leading vendor for data security solutions, including its encryption solution, D’Amo. By using FPE technology, D’Amo allows for the implementation of encryption technology to sensitive data fields without modification to schema in the database environment. With businesses having their data become increasingly more complicated in their mission-critical applications (such as ERP, CRM, HRM), continued ...
In the 21st century, security on the Internet has become one of the most important issues. We hear more and more about cyber-attacks on the websites of large corporations, banks and even small businesses. When online we’re concerned not only for our own safety but also our privacy. We have to know that hackers usually start their preparation by investigating the private information of admins – the habits, interests, visited websites and so on. On the other hand, our own security is in danger bec...
Two weeks ago (November 3-5), I attended the Cloud Expo Silicon Valley as a speaker, where I presented on the security and privacy due diligence requirements for cloud solutions. Cloud security is a topical issue for every CIO, CISO, and technology buyer. Decision-makers are always looking for insights on how to mitigate the security risks of implementing and using cloud solutions. Based on the presentation topics covered at the conference, as well as the general discussions heard between sessi...