Welcome!

News Feed Item

Easy Times are Over, Says ICIS, as Carbon Prices Enter Bullish Corridor

KARLSRUHE, Germany, August 21, 2014 /PRNewswire/ --

Tough times ahead for industrials with ETS compliance obligations, as reduced auction volumes and back-loading mean carbon prices set for sustained increase, reaching double digits by 2015 

With prices hitting a 5 month high of €6.50 today, established energy intelligence provider ICIS Tschach predicts a sustained increase in the price of European Trading Scheme (ETS) allowances. On current trajectories, prices are expected to hit double digits and a two-year high by year's end. Such an increase would be a worrying trend for those with significant compliance obligations, especially large, carbon-intensive industrials.

Since the beginning of the EU ETS's Phase 3 compliance period at the start of 2013, the market has been oversupplied with allowances, leading to a sustained period of trading within a €3-6 corridor. Now however, a number of factors are converging to push prices consistently higher.

"After all the volatility and exceptional trading activity in Q1 2014, we are seeing the effects of back-loading really start to take hold now" said Philipp Ruf, Lead Analyst, EU Carbon Markets at ICIS. "Next to the reduced auction volume, the appetite of industrials to sell banked length is rather muted while the demand from utilities seems constant. All these factors, together with the potential momentum derived from the policy discussion around the 2030 emission reduction target and the Market Stability Reserve, suggest a sustained bullish corridor for carbon prices."

Higher carbon prices represent a business risk to all sectors where there is an emissions compliance requirement. However, the biggest effect is likely to be felt in the carbon-heavy industrial sector.

"Up to now, industrials have enjoyed a huge number of free allowances under the scheme and could easily cover their obligations and maybe even sell some allowances at a profit," notes Jan Frommeyer, Director of Market Analysis at ICIS. "Now the free allowances are scarcer, and most carbon-heavy industrials will face a shortage of allowances in the near future. That's not so risky with prices as low as they have been, but as they edge higher it becomes more and more of a problem."

ICIS predicts that carbon prices will enter double digits by the start of 2015 for the first time since 2012. However, with further planned political interventions designed to keep prices high, prices of above €20 are perfectly feasible in the third trading period. Such a scenario would represent a significant risk to large industrials and an intelligent and informed hedging strategy will be vital to protect profits.

"It's not all about the risks though," adds Frommeyer. "For those that proactively manage their exposure now there's a real opportunity to gain a competitive advantage over rivals with less effective hedging strategies."

Notes to editors: 

About EU ETS 

Launched in 2005, the EU's Emissions Trading Scheme is the cornerstone of the EU's policy to combat climate change.

Large carbon emitters are required to surrender an allowance for each tonne of CO2 emitted. A certain number of free allowances is awarded to each participant and more are released at auction. Allowances may then be traded as required.

The EU ETS was from the start designed as a multi-national - with all EU member states participating in the system - as well as a multi-sector system. In 2013 more than 11,000 stationary installations in 31 countries participated in the scheme. Covered by the EU ETS are carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from power and heat generation, energy-intensive industry production and commercial airlines as well as nitrous oxide (N2O) and per-fluorocarbons (PFCs).

The system covers around 2bn tonnes of carbon emissions (around 45% of the EU's greenhouse gas emissions in 2013) and the average price for a European Union Allowance (EUA) was €4.50 in 2013.

About ICIS 

ICIS Tschach Solutions provides information and intelligence to every participant in the carbon markets. ICIS Tschach Solutions employs a unique combination of quantitative and qualitative research and expert opinion to deliver detailed insight into emissions and carbon trading schemes, and identifies important commonalities and disparities. Our Timing Impact Model provides clients with a more rounded perspective than conventional approaches and helps create competitive advantage. We offer clients a complete and transparent analysis of market dynamics, including emerging upside or downside risks to carbon prices and the assumptions on which these are based.

ICIS has more than 30 years' experience providing pricing information, news, analysis and consultancy to buyers, sellers and analysts of energy and related commodities. In 2013 it acquired Tschach Solutions to add specialist carbon trading services to its portfolio. ICIS Tschach Solutions is based in Karlsruhe.

About Reed Business Information 

At Reed Business Information we provide information and online data services to business professionals worldwide. Customers have access to our high-value industry data, analytics, information and tools. Our strong global brands hold market-leading positions across a wide range of industry sectors including banking, petrochemicals and aviation where we help customers make key strategic decisions every day. RBI is part of Reed Elsevier, a leading global provider of data, information and solutions for professional customers.

About Reed Elsevier 

Reed Elsevier is a world leading provider of information solutions for professionals. We help scientists make new discoveries, lawyers win cases, doctors save lives, corporations build commercial relationships, insurance companies assess risk, and government and financial institutions detect fraud.

Media contact:
Jacqueline Savory
Senior Marketing Manager
Email: [email protected]
Direct: +44-(0)208-652-4490
Mobile: +44-(0)7825-680550


SOURCE ICIS

More Stories By PR Newswire

Copyright © 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of PRNewswire content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of PRNewswire. PRNewswire shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Latest Stories
ChatOps is an emerging topic that has led to the wide availability of integrations between group chat and various other tools/platforms. Currently, HipChat is an extremely powerful collaboration platform due to the various ChatOps integrations that are available. However, DevOps automation can involve orchestration and complex workflows. In his session at @DevOpsSummit at 20th Cloud Expo, Himanshu Chhetri, CTO at Addteq, will cover practical examples and use cases such as self-provisioning infra...
As DevOps methodologies expand their reach across the enterprise, organizations face the daunting challenge of adapting related cloud strategies to ensure optimal alignment, from managing complexity to ensuring proper governance. How can culture, automation, legacy apps and even budget be reexamined to enable this ongoing shift within the modern software factory? In her Day 2 Keynote at @DevOpsSummit at 21st Cloud Expo, Aruna Ravichandran, VP, DevOps Solutions Marketing, CA Technologies, was jo...
"Storpool does only block-level storage so we do one thing extremely well. The growth in data is what drives the move to software-defined technologies in general and software-defined storage," explained Boyan Ivanov, CEO and co-founder at StorPool, in this SYS-CON.tv interview at 16th Cloud Expo, held June 9-11, 2015, at the Javits Center in New York City.
As Marc Andreessen says software is eating the world. Everything is rapidly moving toward being software-defined – from our phones and cars through our washing machines to the datacenter. However, there are larger challenges when implementing software defined on a larger scale - when building software defined infrastructure. In his session at 16th Cloud Expo, Boyan Ivanov, CEO of StorPool, provided some practical insights on what, how and why when implementing "software-defined" in the datacent...
Blockchain. A day doesn’t seem to go by without seeing articles and discussions about the technology. According to PwC executive Seamus Cushley, approximately $1.4B has been invested in blockchain just last year. In Gartner’s recent hype cycle for emerging technologies, blockchain is approaching the peak. It is considered by Gartner as one of the ‘Key platform-enabling technologies to track.’ While there is a lot of ‘hype vs reality’ discussions going on, there is no arguing that blockchain is b...
Blockchain is a shared, secure record of exchange that establishes trust, accountability and transparency across business networks. Supported by the Linux Foundation's open source, open-standards based Hyperledger Project, Blockchain has the potential to improve regulatory compliance, reduce cost as well as advance trade. Are you curious about how Blockchain is built for business? In her session at 21st Cloud Expo, René Bostic, Technical VP of the IBM Cloud Unit in North America, discussed the b...
You know you need the cloud, but you’re hesitant to simply dump everything at Amazon since you know that not all workloads are suitable for cloud. You know that you want the kind of ease of use and scalability that you get with public cloud, but your applications are architected in a way that makes the public cloud a non-starter. You’re looking at private cloud solutions based on hyperconverged infrastructure, but you’re concerned with the limits inherent in those technologies.
Is advanced scheduling in Kubernetes achievable?Yes, however, how do you properly accommodate every real-life scenario that a Kubernetes user might encounter? How do you leverage advanced scheduling techniques to shape and describe each scenario in easy-to-use rules and configurations? In his session at @DevOpsSummit at 21st Cloud Expo, Oleg Chunikhin, CTO at Kublr, answered these questions and demonstrated techniques for implementing advanced scheduling. For example, using spot instances and co...
A strange thing is happening along the way to the Internet of Things, namely far too many devices to work with and manage. It has become clear that we'll need much higher efficiency user experiences that can allow us to more easily and scalably work with the thousands of devices that will soon be in each of our lives. Enter the conversational interface revolution, combining bots we can literally talk with, gesture to, and even direct with our thoughts, with embedded artificial intelligence, whic...
The cloud era has reached the stage where it is no longer a question of whether a company should migrate, but when. Enterprises have embraced the outsourcing of where their various applications are stored and who manages them, saving significant investment along the way. Plus, the cloud has become a defining competitive edge. Companies that fail to successfully adapt risk failure. The media, of course, continues to extol the virtues of the cloud, including how easy it is to get there. Migrating...
The use of containers by developers -- and now increasingly IT operators -- has grown from infatuation to deep and abiding love. But as with any long-term affair, the honeymoon soon leads to needing to live well together ... and maybe even getting some relationship help along the way. And so it goes with container orchestration and automation solutions, which are rapidly emerging as the means to maintain the bliss between rapid container adoption and broad container use among multiple cloud host...
Imagine if you will, a retail floor so densely packed with sensors that they can pick up the movements of insects scurrying across a store aisle. Or a component of a piece of factory equipment so well-instrumented that its digital twin provides resolution down to the micrometer.
In his keynote at 18th Cloud Expo, Andrew Keys, Co-Founder of ConsenSys Enterprise, provided an overview of the evolution of the Internet and the Database and the future of their combination – the Blockchain. Andrew Keys is Co-Founder of ConsenSys Enterprise. He comes to ConsenSys Enterprise with capital markets, technology and entrepreneurial experience. Previously, he worked for UBS investment bank in equities analysis. Later, he was responsible for the creation and distribution of life settle...
The need for greater agility and scalability necessitated the digital transformation in the form of following equation: monolithic to microservices to serverless architecture (FaaS). To keep up with the cut-throat competition, the organisations need to update their technology stack to make software development their differentiating factor. Thus microservices architecture emerged as a potential method to provide development teams with greater flexibility and other advantages, such as the abili...
Product connectivity goes hand and hand these days with increased use of personal data. New IoT devices are becoming more personalized than ever before. In his session at 22nd Cloud Expo | DXWorld Expo, Nicolas Fierro, CEO of MIMIR Blockchain Solutions, will discuss how in order to protect your data and privacy, IoT applications need to embrace Blockchain technology for a new level of product security never before seen - or needed.