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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China Increased Sharply in July

BEIJING, Aug. 25, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 1.3 percent in July. The index stands at 297.7 (2004 = 100), following a 1.3 percent increase in June and a 0.7 percent increase in May. Five of the six components contributed positively to the index in July.

Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing, said: "The six-month growth rate of the China LEI increased considerably in July. However, the improvement was driven primarily by an increase in new floor space starts, which is unsustainable in the longer-term. Bank loans, meanwhile, offered their weakest contribution to the LEI since January 2012. Given tight financing conditions and a still-fragile real estate market, there is some doubt as to whether recently improved LEI growth will translate into an acceleration of economic growth in the second half of 2014." 

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 1.2 percent in July to 265.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.9 percent increase in June and a 0.7 percent increase in May. Four of the five components contributed positively to the index in July.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China 

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, the Euro Area, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People's Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People's Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2014

6-month


May


Jun


Jul


Jan to Jul









Leading Economic index (LEI) 

290.3

p

294.0

p

297.7

p


Percent Change

0.7

p

1.3

p

1.3

p

6.4

Diffusion

58.3


75.0


75.0


83.3









Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

259.7

p

262.0

p

265.1

p


Percent Change

0.7

p

0.9

p

1.2

p

4.9

Diffusion

100.0


100.0


80.0


100.0









n.a. Not available    p Preliminary    r Revised


Indexes equal 100 in 2004


Source: The Conference Board        All Rights Reserved


SOURCE The Conference Board

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